The Variability of the Interannual Oscillations of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

S.G. Narkhedkar

doi:10.1007/BF02661291

Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 12 Issue 1

Jan. 1995

Article Contents

Article > ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES > 1995 > 12(1): 95-102

The Variability of the Interannual Oscillations of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

S.G. Narkhedkar

1.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Marg, Pashan, Pune-411008, India

S.G. Narkhedkar

doi: 10.1007/BF02661291

Abstract
References
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Abstract:
A new method of analysis namely, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon (June-September) Rainfall (ISMR) series. The method is efficient in extracting the statistically significant oscillations with periods 2.8 and 2.3 year from the white noise of the ISMR series. The study shows that 2.8 / 2.3 year cycle captures the variability of the ISMR related to Southern Oscillation / Quasi Biennial Oscillation. The temporal structure of these oscillations show that these are in phase in extreme (excess and drought) monsoon conditions as well as in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. Both these oscillations show minimum variability during the period 1920-1940 and there is an increasing trend in the variability of these oscillations in the recent decades. The study enables to obtain pure signal consisting of reconstructed time series using these two Oscillations, from the original white noise series.
- Singular Spectrum Analysis,
- Monsoon Variability
References

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 January 1995

Manuscript revised: 10 January 1995

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

The Variability of the Interannual Oscillations of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

S.G. Narkhedkar

1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Marg, Pashan, Pune-411008, India

Manuscript received: 1995-01-10
Manuscript revised: 1995-01-10

Abstract: A new method of analysis namely, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon (June-September) Rainfall (ISMR) series. The method is efficient in extracting the statistically significant oscillations with periods 2.8 and 2.3 year from the white noise of the ISMR series. The study shows that 2.8 / 2.3 year cycle captures the variability of the ISMR related to Southern Oscillation / Quasi Biennial Oscillation. The temporal structure of these oscillations show that these are in phase in extreme (excess and drought) monsoon conditions as well as in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. Both these oscillations show minimum variability during the period 1920-1940 and there is an increasing trend in the variability of these oscillations in the recent decades. The study enables to obtain pure signal consisting of reconstructed time series using these two Oscillations, from the original white noise series.

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