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Volume 6 Issue 3

Jul.  1989

Article Contents

Predictability of the Atmosphere


doi: 10.1007/BF02661539

  • This paper makes a review on the predictability of the atmosphere. The essential problems of predictability theo-ry, i.e., how a deterministic system changes to an undeterministic system (chaos) and how is the opposite (order within chaos), are discussed. Some applications of predictability theory are given.
  • [1] Yang Peicai, 1991: On the Chaotic Behavior and Predictability of the Real Atmosphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 8, 407-420.  doi: 10.1007/BF02919264
    [2] YAN Li, WANG Panxing, YU Yongqiang, LI Lijuan, WANG Bin, 2010: Potential Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in a Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere GCM, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 921-936.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9062-y
    [3] Xuan LI, Ruiqiang DING, Jianping LI, 2019: Determination of the Backward Predictability Limit and Its Relationship with the Forward Predictability Limit, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 669-677.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-8205-z
    [4] J. R. Kulkarni, 1991: Monsoon Subdivisional Rainfall Dimensionality and Predictability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 8, 351-356.  doi: 10.1007/BF02919617
    [5] Wang Huijun, 1999: A Preliminary Study on the Polar Climate Predictability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 361-366.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0015-2
    [6] Chen Yingyi, 1993: Predictability of the 500 hPa Height Field, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 10, 497-503.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656975
    [7] LANG Xianmei, WANG Huijun, 2005: Seasonal Differences of Model Predictability and the Impact of SST in the Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 22, 103-113.  doi: 10.1007/BF02930873
    [8] PENG Yuehua, DUAN Wansuo, XIANG Jie, 2011: Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 1279-1290.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0126-4
    [9] Mu Mu, Duan Wansuo, Wang Jiacheng, 2002: The Predictability Problems in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 191-204.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0016-x
    [10] LIU Jianyong, TAN Zhe-Min, 2009: Mesoscale Predictability of Mei-yu Heavy Rainfall, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 438-450.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0438-9
    [11] WangHuijun, Xue Feng, Bi Xunqiang, 1997: The Interannual Variability and Predictability in a Global Climate Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 14, 554-562.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0073-2
    [12] Yuejian ZHU, 2005: Ensemble Forecast: A New Approach to Uncertainty and Predictability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 22, 781-788.  doi: 10.1007/BF02918678
    [13] DUAN Wansuo, JIANG Zhina, XU Hui, 2007: Progress in Predictability Studies in China (2003--2006), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 1086-1098.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-1086-6
    [14] Gill M. MARTIN, Amulya CHEVUTURI, Ruth E. COMER, Nick J. DUNSTONE, Adam A. SCAIFE, Daquan ZHANG, 2019: Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 253-260.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8100-z
    [15] Zeng Zongyong, Ma Chengsheng, 1985: OBSERVATIONS OF TEMPERATURE MICROSTRUCTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2, 234-242.  doi: 10.1007/BF03179755
    [16] Su Weihan, Li Wei, Ding Guoan, W.E. Wilson, 1989: A Study on Hydrogen Peroxide in the Atmosphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 6, 509-515.  doi: 10.1007/BF02659085
    [17] Yong. L. McHall, 1991: Blocking Distributions in the Atmosphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 8, 327-338.  doi: 10.1007/BF02919615
    [18] MU Mu, DUAN Wansuo, CHOU Jifan, 2004: Recent Advances in Predictability Studies in China (1999-2002), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 21, 437-443.  doi: 10.1007/BF02915570
    [19] ZHU Benlu, LIN Wantao, ZHANG Yun, 2010: Analysis Study on Perturbation Energy and Predictability of Heavy Precipitation in South China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 382-392.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8164-x
    [20] ZHENG Qin, DAI Yi, ZHANG Lu, SHA Jianxin, LU Xiaoqing, 2012: On the Application of a Genetic Algorithm to the Predictability Problems Involving ``On--Off'' Switches, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 422-434.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-1054-z

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 July 1989
Manuscript revised: 10 July 1989
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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Predictability of the Atmosphere

  • 1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730001

Abstract: This paper makes a review on the predictability of the atmosphere. The essential problems of predictability theo-ry, i.e., how a deterministic system changes to an undeterministic system (chaos) and how is the opposite (order within chaos), are discussed. Some applications of predictability theory are given.

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