Preliminary Evaluations of FGOALS-g2 for Decadal Predictions

WANG Bin; LIU Mimi; YU Yongqiang; LI Lijuan; LIN Pengfei; DONG Li; LIU Li; LIU Jiping; HUANG Wenyu; XU Shiming; SHEN Si; PU Ye; XUE Wei; XIA Kun; WANG Yong; SUN Wenqi; HU Ning; HUANG Xiaomeng; LIU Hailong; ZHENG Weipeng; WU Bo; ZHOU Tianjun; and YANG Guangwen

doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2084-x

Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 30 Issue 3

May 2013

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Article > ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES > 2013 > 30(3): 674-683

Preliminary Evaluations of FGOALS-g2 for Decadal Predictions

1.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084

doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2084-x

Abstract
References
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Abstract:
The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) for decadal predictions, is evaluated preliminarily, based on sets of ensemble 10-year hindcasts that it has produced. The results show that the hindcasts were more accurate in decadal variability of SST and surface air temperature (SAT), particularly in that of Nino3.4 SST and China regional SAT, than the second sample of the historical runs for 20th-century climate (the control) by the same model. Both the control and the hindcasts represented the global warming well using the same external forcings, but the control overestimated the warming. The hindcasts produced the warming closer to the observations. Performance of FGOALS-g2 in hindcasts benefits from more realistic initial conditions provided by the initialization run and a smaller model bias resulting from the use of a dynamic bias correction scheme newly developed in this study. The initialization consists of a 61-year nudging-based assimilation cycle, which follows on the control run on 01 January 1945 with the incorporation of observation data of upper-ocean temperature and salinity at each integration step in the ocean component model, the LASG IAP Climate System Ocean Model, Version 2 (LICOM2). The dynamic bias correction is implemented at each step of LICOM2 during the hindcasts to reduce the systematic biases existing in upper-ocean temperature and salinity by incorporating multi-year monthly mean increments produced in the assimilation cycle. The effectiveness of the assimilation cycle and the role of the correction scheme were assessed prior to the hindcasts.
- decadal prediction, initialization, dynamic bias correction, evaluation
References

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 25 April 2012

Manuscript revised: 09 August 2012

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

Preliminary Evaluations of FGOALS-g2 for Decadal Predictions

Corresponding author: WANG Bin;

1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084

Manuscript received: 2012-04-25
Manuscript revised: 2012-08-09

Abstract: The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) for decadal predictions, is evaluated preliminarily, based on sets of ensemble 10-year hindcasts that it has produced. The results show that the hindcasts were more accurate in decadal variability of SST and surface air temperature (SAT), particularly in that of Nino3.4 SST and China regional SAT, than the second sample of the historical runs for 20th-century climate (the control) by the same model. Both the control and the hindcasts represented the global warming well using the same external forcings, but the control overestimated the warming. The hindcasts produced the warming closer to the observations. Performance of FGOALS-g2 in hindcasts benefits from more realistic initial conditions provided by the initialization run and a smaller model bias resulting from the use of a dynamic bias correction scheme newly developed in this study. The initialization consists of a 61-year nudging-based assimilation cycle, which follows on the control run on 01 January 1945 with the incorporation of observation data of upper-ocean temperature and salinity at each integration step in the ocean component model, the LASG IAP Climate System Ocean Model, Version 2 (LICOM2). The dynamic bias correction is implemented at each step of LICOM2 during the hindcasts to reduce the systematic biases existing in upper-ocean temperature and salinity by incorporating multi-year monthly mean increments produced in the assimilation cycle. The effectiveness of the assimilation cycle and the role of the correction scheme were assessed prior to the hindcasts.

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