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CMIP5模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟和预估

张武龙 张井勇 范广洲

张武龙, 张井勇, 范广洲. CMIP5模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟和预估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(3): 559-570. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.14136
引用本文: 张武龙, 张井勇, 范广洲. CMIP5模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟和预估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(3): 559-570. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.14136
ZHANG Wulong, ZHANG Jingyong, FAN Guangzhou. Evaluation and Projection of Dry- and Wet-Season Precipitation in Southwestern China Using CMIP5 Models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(3): 559-570. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.14136
Citation: ZHANG Wulong, ZHANG Jingyong, FAN Guangzhou. Evaluation and Projection of Dry- and Wet-Season Precipitation in Southwestern China Using CMIP5 Models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(3): 559-570. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.14136

CMIP5模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟和预估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.14136
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41275089, 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目2012CB955604, 中国科学院"百人计划"项目

Evaluation and Projection of Dry- and Wet-Season Precipitation in Southwestern China Using CMIP5 Models

  • 摘要: 利用降水观测资料, 评估了参加国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的34个全球模式对1986~2005年我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟能力。结果表明, 34个CMIP5模式中分别有30和25个模式模拟的干季和湿季降水偏多。34个模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟能力差异较大, 大约半数模式的模拟值与观测值的空间相关系数通过了99%的信度检验, 且标准差之比小于2。利用两个技巧评分标准, 分别挑选出了对干湿季降水模拟最优的9个模式。最优模式集合平均结果要优于34个模式的集合平均, 更要优于大多数单个模式。进一步利用最优的9个模式的集合平均对RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种典型浓度路径下我国西南地区干湿季降水的变化进行了预估。相对于1986~2005年气候平均态, 在21世纪初期(2016~2035年), 我国西南地区干季降水变化表现为川西高原降水增多, 而四川盆地及攀西地区、重庆、贵州和云南的大部分地区降水减少;湿季降水变化表现为川西高原、贵州和广西大部分地区降水增多, 而四川盆地及攀西地区和云南降水减少。在21世纪中期(2046~2065年)和末期(2080~2099年), 西南地区干湿季降水普遍增多。在RCP8.5情景下, 降水的变化幅度要强于RCP4.5情景。
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  • 收稿日期:  2014-03-05
  • 修回日期:  2014-08-22

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