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南海ITCZ异常变化及其对非移入性南海热带气旋(TC)活动的可能影响

黄小燕 管兆勇 何洁琳 何立

黄小燕, 管兆勇, 何洁琳, 何立. 南海ITCZ异常变化及其对非移入性南海热带气旋(TC)活动的可能影响[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(1): 1-14. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15182
引用本文: 黄小燕, 管兆勇, 何洁琳, 何立. 南海ITCZ异常变化及其对非移入性南海热带气旋(TC)活动的可能影响[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(1): 1-14. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15182
Xiaoyan HUANG, Zhaoyong GUAN, Jielin HE, Li HE. Variations of ITCZ in the South China Sea and Their Possible Influences on the South China Sea-Generated Tropical Cyclone (SCS-G TC) Activities[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(1): 1-14. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15182
Citation: Xiaoyan HUANG, Zhaoyong GUAN, Jielin HE, Li HE. Variations of ITCZ in the South China Sea and Their Possible Influences on the South China Sea-Generated Tropical Cyclone (SCS-G TC) Activities[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(1): 1-14. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15182

南海ITCZ异常变化及其对非移入性南海热带气旋(TC)活动的可能影响

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15182
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 Grants 41465003 and 41575051

公益性行业(气象)科研专项 Grant GYHY201406024

灾害天气国家重点实验室课题 Grant 2015LASW-A03

2014气象关键技术集成与应用项目 Grant CMAGJ2014M41

详细信息
    作者简介:

    黄小燕,女,1978年出生,博士,高级工程师,主要从事台风气候学和季风动力学研究。E-mail:gx_huangxy@163.com

    通讯作者:

    管兆勇,E-mail:guanzy@nuist.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P434

Variations of ITCZ in the South China Sea and Their Possible Influences on the South China Sea-Generated Tropical Cyclone (SCS-G TC) Activities

Funds: 

National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 41465003 and 41575051

Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest Grant GYHY201406024

Subject of State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Grant 2015LASW-A03

Meteorological Key Technology Integration and Application Projects Grant CMAGJ2014M41

  • 摘要: 利用美国NOAA提供的向外长波辐射(OLR)资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及上海台风所提供的热带气旋(TC)资料等,通过定义一个描写南海范围内(5°N~20°N,105°E~120°E)的热带辐合带(Intertropical Convergence Zone,简称ITCZ)强度指数,研究了南海ITCZ年际和年代际异常变化特征及其对非移入性南海TC[South China Sea-generated tropical cyclone(SCS-G TC)]活动的可能影响,并从异常强、弱南海ITCZ年份的大气环流背景和海表温度等变化特征来尝试揭示南海TC的活动规律。结果表明:在年际和年代际时间尺度上,南海ITCZ强度指数与南海TC的生成频数存在显著的负相关关系,长期趋势变化间的关系存在不同。南海ITCZ的强、弱显著地影响到南海TC的生成频数。强南海ITCZ年,南海TC频数偏多;弱南海ITCZ年,南海ITCZ频数偏少。强、弱南海ITCZ年对于南海TC的生成源地、TC的维持时间以及路径和强度的影响不显著。进一步分析表明,动力和环境条件方面,强、弱南海ITCZ年可能差异较大。异常偏强年,对流层低层出现气旋性环流,上层出现反气旋性环流;季风槽在南海区域偏强、位置偏南。与OLR表示的深对流区相配合,存在暖的海表温度和低层强烈的正涡度和强辐合,在高层存在相应的强的气流辐散,形成了极有利于南海TC发生发展的条件。弱南海ITCZ年则相反。另外,ITCZ强年,太平洋异常SST(Sea Surface Temperature)出现为La Niña特征,南海ITCZ区对流活跃,强度偏强。反之,ITCZ弱年则表现为El Niño特征,南海ITCZ关键区的对流强度偏弱。这些结果可为深刻认识南海TC的生成规律以及对南海TC的预报提供线索。
  • 图  1  1979~2013年(a)南海ITCZ强度的纬度—月份演变以及(b)5~11月850 hPa平均风场(单位:m s-1)及向外长波辐射(OLR;填色;单位:W m-2

    Figure  1.  (a) Latitude-month evolution of climatological mean ITCZ strength in SCS (South China Sea), (b) climatology of winds at 850 hPa (streamlines; units: m s-1) and OLR (Outgoing Long-wave Radiation; shaded; units: W m-2) averaged over the period from May to November over the period of 1979 to 2013

    图  2  1979~2013年南海(SCS)ITCZ强度(单位:W m-2)的纬度—时间演变

    Figure  2.  Latitude-time cross section for the intensity (units: W m-2) of ITCZ in SCS from 1979 to 2013

    图  3  1979~2013年(a)南海5~11月份ITCZ强度(直方)和TC频数(曲线)的年际变化以及(b)ITCZ强度序列Morlet小波变换功率谱(阴影部分表示通过90%信度统计,打点区是小波变换受边界影响的区域)

    Figure  3.  (a) Interannual variation of the ITCZ intensity (histogram) and TC frequency (curve) in SCS during the period from May to November and (b) the Morlet wavelet transform power spectrum for the time series of ISCSITCZ from 1979 to 2013. Shaded areas are for values significant at and above the 90% confidence level. The dotted area represents the cone of influence

    图  4  低通滤波的逐年5~11月南海ITCZ强度(菱形)、剔除TC日之后的ITCZ强度(空心矩形)以及南海TC频数(三角形)的年代际变化曲线。实直线和虚直线分别为南海TC频数和ITCZ强度的线性趋势

    Figure  4.  Low-pass filtered time series of SCS ITCZ intensity (line with rhombus) and that under no TC influences (line with hollow square), and SCS_G (South China Sea-generated) TC frequency (line with triangle) during the period from May to November. The solid (dashed) line represents the linear trend of SCS_G TC frequency (SCS ITCZ intensity)

    图  5  (a)强、(b)弱南海ITCZ年合成的850 hPa平均流场和OLR(阴影区表示OLR平均值,单位:W m-2),圆点区表示超过95%信度水平的OLR,黑色箭头代表超过95%信度水平的风场

    Figure  5.  Composite means of streamline fields at 850 hPa and OLR (shaded areas, units: W m-2) for (a) strong and (b) weak ITCZ years. The dotted areas are for OLR values significant at and above the 95% confidence level. The bold arrows denote horizontal wind fields that are significant at/above the 95% confidence level

    图  6  强、弱南海ITCZ年850 hPa涡度差值(单位:10-7 s-1

    Figure  6.  Vorticity difference (units: 10-7 s-1) at 850 hPa between strong and weak ITCZ years

    图  7  合成的(a、b)200 hPa和(c、d)850 hPa上的风场异常:(a、c)强南海ITCZ年份;(b、d)弱南海ITCZ年份。图中“C”表示气旋,“A”代表反气旋,粗箭头代表超过95%信度水平的异常风场

    Figure  7.  Composite means of wind anomalies at (a, b) 200 hPa and (c, d) 850 hPa for (a, c) strong and (b, d) weak ITCZ years. Labels “A” and “C” denote anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation, respectively. The thick arrows represent wind anomalies that are significant at/above the 95% confidence level

    图  8  (a)强、(b)弱南海ITCZ 年500 hPa上垂直速度(ω) 距平合成(单位:hPa s-1)。圆点区表示超过95%信度水平

    Figure  8.  Composite means of anomalous vertical velocity (ω) at 500 hPa for (a) strong and (b) weak ITCZ years, respectively. The dotted areas are for values significant at and above the 95% confidence level

    图  9  (a)强、(b)弱南海ITCZ 年500 hPa位势高度距平合成(单位:gpm)

    Figure  9.  Composite anomalies (units: gpm) of geopotential height at 500 hPa for (a) strong and (b) weak ITCZ years

    图  10  (a)强、(b)弱南海ITCZ年台风季(5~11月)SST 距平场合成(阴影区,单位:℃)。圆点区信度水平高于95%

    Figure  10.  Composite SST anomalies (units: ℃) in the typhoon season (May-November) in (a) strong and (b) weak ITCZ years. Dotted areas are for values significant at the 95% confidence level

    表  1  南海ITCZ偏强和偏弱年

    Table  1.   Stronger and weaker ITCZ years in SCS for composite analysis

    ISCSITCZ ITCZ强度 年份
    >0.5 W m-2 偏弱 1979、1982、1983、1987、1989、1991、1993、 1994、1997、2003、2004、2006
    <-0.5 W m-2 偏强 1981、1984、1988、1995、1996、1998、1999、 2000、2001、2007、2008、2010、2013
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-04-14
  • 网络出版日期:  2016-04-19
  • 刊出日期:  2017-01-15

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