基于气候系统模式FGOALS-g2的热带气旋活动及其影响的动力降尺度模拟

姚隽琛; 周天军; 邹立维

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1704.17129

基于气候系统模式FGOALS-g2的热带气旋活动及其影响的动力降尺度模拟

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1704.17129

姚隽琛^{1, 2, 4,},
周天军^{1, 2, ,},
邹立维^{1, 3}

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG), 北京 100029
2.
中国科学院大学(UCAS), 北京 100049
3.
南京大学江苏省气候变化协同创新中心(JCICCC), 南京 210023
4.
中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41420104006

国家自然科学基金项目 41125017

详细信息

作者简介:
姚隽琛, 男, 1991年出生, 博士研究生, 主要从事气候模拟的研究。E-mail:yaojc@lasg.iap.a

通讯作者:
周天军, E-mail:zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P447
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-03-04
- 网络出版日期: 2017-04-26
- 刊出日期: 2018-01-15

Dynamical Downscaling of Tropical Cyclone and Associated Rainfall Simulations of FGOALS-g2

Junchen YAO^{1, 2, 4
,},
Tianjun ZHOU^{1, 2
, ,},
Liwei Zou^{1, 3}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
3.
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing 210023
4.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41420104006

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41125017

摘要

摘要: 热带气旋是气候模拟关注的重要对象，但是，由于当前的气候系统模式分辨率较低，难以合理再现热带气旋分布特征，因此，动力降尺度就成为一种有效的手段。本文使用区域气候模式RegCM3，对中国科学院大气物理研究所气候系统模式FGOALS-g2的模拟结果进行动力降尺度，基于热带气旋路径追踪法，从热带气旋的路径、强度和降水三个方面，检验了动力降尺度在热带气旋模拟能力上的增值。结果表明，动力降尺度结果大幅提升了热带气旋路径频率的模拟，较之全球模式，其与观测的路径频率分布的空间相关系数从0.57提升至0.74；区域模式模拟的热带气旋强度与观测更为一致，全球模式难以模拟40 m s⁻¹以上风速的热带气旋，区域模式能够模拟风速为60 m s⁻¹的热带气旋；在热带气旋降水方面，降尺度后的热带气旋降水贡献率和平均热带气旋降水强度均有所改善，在西北太平洋区域较之全球模式，区域模式将热带气旋降水贡献率和降水强度提高了10%和4.7 mm d⁻¹。动力降尺度后TC（tropical cyclone）的模拟技巧得到提升的区域为西北太平洋区域，但在中国南海区域，技巧提升的不显著甚至有所下降。关于动力降尺度结果在西北太平洋区域的技巧提升，分析表明能够更好体现CISK（Conditional Instability of the Second Kind）机制是主要原因，区域模式模拟的水汽增多、正涡度增强、上升运动增强而垂直风切变减弱都有显著贡献。
- 热带气旋路径 /
- 热带气旋降水 /
- 气旋路径追踪 /
- 区域模式 /
- 西北太平洋
Abstract: Tropical cyclone (TC) plays an important role in climate research.However, due to the relatively low model resolution, there remain challenges in simulating the distribution of TC by using global climate models.Dynamical downscaling has been a useful tool for TC research.In this paper, a regional climate model RegCM3 was used to dynamically downscale the historical TC simulation of FGOALS-g2(grid-point version 2 of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), a global climate system model developed by LASG/IAP.A tropical cyclone track detection method was applied to reveal the added value of dynamical downscaling in simulating track distribution, intensity and rainfall of TCs.The result of dynamical downscaling shows distinct improvements in simulating the TC distribution, intensity and associated rainfall.The pattern correlation coefficient of TC track distribution is improved from 0.53 to 0.74 by the regional model.The underestimated TC intensity from FGOALS-g2 simulation is enhanced in RegCM3(Version 3 of the Regional Climate Model) by 20 m s⁻¹.In addition, the total rainfall contribution and intensity are enhanced by 10% and 4.7 mm d⁻¹ in RegCM3 compared to that in the global model over the western North Pacific region.In addition to the influence of increasing model resolution, large-scale variables such as increased moisture, enhanced relative vorticity and ascending motion, and weakened vertical wind shear are responsible for the improvements of TC simulating skill in RegCM3 as a result of better reproduction of CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind) mechanism.
- Tropical cyclone track /
- Tropical cyclone rainfall /
- Tropical cyclone track detection /
- Regional climate model /
- Western North Pacific

HTML全文

图 1 1986~2005年东亚区域热带气旋路径：（a）观测（IBTrACS资料）；（b）JRA55数据；（c）FGOALS-g2；（d）RegCM3。填色为根据Saffir-Simpson台风风速进行的划分：热带低压（TD）、热带风暴（TS）、等级1~5（C1到C5）

Figure 1. Tropical cyclone (TC) tracks from 1986 to 2005 derived from (a) observations (IBTrACS), (b) JRA-55 data, (c) FGOALS-g2 model, and (d) RegCM3 model over the western North Pacific. The intensities of TCs (colored tracks) are categorized based on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale [tropical depression (TD), tropical storms (TS), and the categories 1-5 (C1–C5)]

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图 3 1986~2005年东亚区域热带气旋频率：（a）逐月分布和（b）强度分布。黑色、灰色、红色和蓝色分别为观测（IBTrACS资料）、JRA55资料、FGOALS-g2模式和RegCM3模式结果。强度根据Saffir-Simpson台风风速进行划分

Figure 3. (a) Seasonal cycle and (b) intensity distribution of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific during 1986–2005 [black, gray, red, and blue denote the results from observations (IBTrACS), JRA55 data, FGOALS-g2 model, and RegCM3 model respectively]. The intensity of TCs is categorized based on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind Scale

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图 2 1986~2005年东亚区域热带气旋路径频率（单位：a^-1）：（a）观测（IBTrACS资料）；（b）JRA55；（c）FGOALS-g2；（d）RegCM3（等值线为RegCM3减去FGOALS-g2结果；等值线间隔0.5 a^-1，正值实线，负值虚线，零值省略）

Figure 2. Frequency of tropical cyclone occurrence (shaded; units: a^-1) from 1986 to 2005 over the western North Pacific derived from (a) observations (IBTrACS), (b) JRA-55 data, (c) FGOALS-g2 model, and (d) RegCM3 model. The contours in (d) denote the difference between RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2 (contour interval is 0.5 a^-1, solid and dashed contours denote positive and negative values respectively, and zero value is omitted)

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图 4 热带气旋最大风速（单位：m s^-1）和最小中心气压（单位：hPa）的散点图。黑色、红色和蓝色点（曲线）分别为观测、FGOALS-g2模式和RegCM3模式中的热带气旋（最大风速和最小气压最小二阶拟合曲线）。散点为每个TC在强度最大时的结果

Figure 4. Scatter diagram of tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds (units: m s^-1) vs central minimum pressure (units: hPa). Dots denote TC occurrences from observations (black), FGOALS-g2 model (red), and RegCM3 model (blue). The smooth curves are least squares quadratic best-fit lines associated with the data for the various cases

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图 5 1997~2005年东亚区域热带气旋6~10月的相对降水贡献：（a）观测（GPCP-1dd资料）；（b）JRA55；（a）FGOALS-g2；（a）RegCM3

Figure 5. Distributions of relative rainfall contributions by tropical cyclones during June–October from 1986 to 2005 over the western North Pacific derived from (a) observations (GPCP-1dd), (b) JRA55 data, (c) FGOALS-g2 model, and (d) RegCM3 model

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图 6 1997~2005年东亚区域热带气旋6~10月的平均热带气旋降水强度（单位：mm d^-1）：（a）观测（GPCP-1dd资料）；（b）JRA55；（c）FGOALS-g2；（d）RegCM3

Figure 6. Distributions of rainfall intensities associated with tropical cyclones (units: mm d^-1) during June–October from 1986 to 2005 over the western North Pacific derived from (a) observations (GPCP-1dd), (b) JRA55 data, (c) FGOALS-g2 model, and (d) RegCM3 model

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图 7 1986~2005年6~10月850 hPa比湿（SH；第一行；单位：g kg^-1）、850 hPa相对涡度（VOR；第二行；单位：10^-5 s^-1）、500 hPa垂直速度（WP；第三行；单位：Pa s^-1）以及850 hPa及200 hPa间的垂直风切变（VWS；第四行；单位：m s^-1）：JRA55数据（左列）；FGOALS-g2模拟结果减去JRA55数据（中间列）；RegCM3模拟结果减去JRA55数据（右列）。右列图黑色等值线为RegCM3减去FGOALS-g2结果（实线为正，虚线为负），等值线间隔分别为（c）0.2 g kg^-1、（f）0.4×10^-5 s^-1、（i）0.02 Pa s^-1以及（l）2.0 m s^-1

Figure 7. Large-scale variables related to tropical cyclone genesis during June–October from 1986 to 2005 over the western North Pacific: Specific humidity (SH; top row; shaded; units: g kg^-1) and relative vorticity at 850 hPa (VOR; second row; shaded; units: 10^-5 s^-1), vertical motion at 500 hPa (WP; third row; shaded; units: Pa s^-1), vertical wind shear (VWS; bottom row; shaded; units: m s^-1) from JRA55 data (left column), differences between FGOALS-g2 and JRA55 (middle column), and differences between RegCM3 and JRA55 (right column). The contours in the right column denote the differences between RegCM3 and FGOALS-g2 at intervals of (c) 0.2 g kg^-1, (f) 0.4×10^-5 s^-1, (i) 0.02 Pa s^-1, (l) 2.0 m s^-1, and solid and dashed contours denote positive and negative values, respectively

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图 8 1986~2005年6~10月850 hPa水汽通量散度[∇·(Vq)，左列，简称Div；单位：10^-8 s^-1]；整层积分的非绝热加热率（$ \left\langle {{Q_1}} \right\rangle $，右列，简称Q1；单位：K kg s^-1 m^-2）：（a、b）JRA55、（c、d）FGOALS-g2和（e、f）RegCM3的模式结果

Figure 8. Moisture flux divergence (∇·(Vq), left column, Div; units: 10^-8s^-1) and vertically integrated total diabatic heating ($ \left\langle {{Q_1}} \right\rangle $, right column, Q1; units: K kg s^-1m^-2) during June–October from 1986 to 2005 over the western North Pacific derived from (a, b) JRA55 data, (c, d) FGOALS-g2 model, and (e, f) RegCM3 model

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表 1 区域加权平均的热带气旋路径频率（单位：a^-1）

Table 1. Regional-weighted-average tropical cyclone track frequency (units: a^-1)

	热带气旋路径频率/ a^-1
	观测	JRA55数据	FGOALS-g2	RegCM3
WNP	3.1	3.6	1.4	3.2
SCS	2.9	2.8	1.9	1.5
EYS	1.2	1.1	0.3	0.6
JPS	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.2

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表 2 区域加权平均的热带气旋降水贡献率及降水强度

Table 2. Regional weighted averages of rainfall contribution and rainfall intensity associated with tropical cyclones

	TC降水贡献（平均降水强度/mm d^-1）
	观测	JRA55数据	FGOALS-g2	RegCM3
WNP	17.2%（9.1）	18.3%（8.5）	4.1%（3.1）	14.1%（7.8）
SCS	10.7%（6.5）	13.4%（6.7）	6.1%（3.3）	4.5%（1.9）
EYS	8.9%（4.4）	3.6%（4.4）	1.9%（0.8）	7.9%（2.6）
JPS	11.3%（5.3）	2.2%（0.8）	0.8%（0.5）	3.2%（1.1）

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