利用1961～2008年NCEP再分析和NOAA延长重构的月平均海温资料, 基于海气系统关键区的前期信号分析, 建立了一个东亚冬季风强度的统计预测方法。东亚冬季风强度与前期 (9～10月) 黑潮及其延伸区和热带西印度洋海温异常 (SSTA) 密切相关。强东亚冬季风活动与黑潮及其延伸区正SSTA和热带西印度洋负SSTA相对应。东亚冬季风强度还和一个前期 (10月) 北半球环流型存在显著相关, 其中环流型的活动中心分别位于北太平洋中部、 太平洋东北部、 北美和北大西洋。文中探讨了这三个预测因子对东亚冬季风强度的预测意义, 并揭示了其影响东亚冬季风活动的可能物理过程。该预测方法的历史拟合率和试报准确率较高, 可用于东亚冬季风强度的定性预测。
With the analysis of the precursory signal observed in the key regions of the air－sea system, this study has developed a statistical prediction method for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) intensity, by using the monthly data of the NCEP reanalysis and NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST). The EAWM intensity is closely associated with the prior September－October SST anomalies in the Kuroshio and its extension region and the tropical western Indian Ocean. A strong EAWM activity corresponds well to the positive SST anomaly in the Kuroshio and its extension region and to the negative anomaly in the tropical western Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the EAWM intensity is also significantly correlated with a prior (October) northern hemispheric circulation pattern, whose action centers are located in the central North Pacific, the Northeastern Pacific, North America and the North Atlantic, respectively. The potential of above-mentioned three precursory factors in predicting the EAWM intensity has been discussed and the possible physical linkages between the EAWM intensity and the three precursory factors have also been explored. The fitting analysis and trial predicting examination indicate that the prediction method established here has a high accuracy and is applicable for the qualitative prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity.