Interdecadal Variation of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Mode and Its Association with North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature
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摘要: 本文利用美国航空航天局戈达德空间研究所地表气温、美国国家海洋和大气局—环境科学协作研究所20世纪再分析资料，以及第六次国际耦合模式比较计划的多模式Historical试验结果，去除外强迫影响后，研究1910/1911～2019/2020年冬季（DJF）欧亚中高纬地区“暖北极—冷欧亚”（WACE）模态的年代际变化特征及其物理原因。结果表明：WACE具有显著的年代际变化，在WACE正位相时期，乌拉尔阻塞发生频率偏高，有利于热量向极区输送使得极区出现异常暖平流，且水汽向极区输送导致极区水汽辐合，向下长波辐射增加，另外对流活动增强导致潜热释放，进而极区温度上升。与此同时，极涡及欧亚大陆西风减弱且乌拉尔阻塞发生频率偏高，有利于冷空气侵袭欧亚大陆造成异常冷平流，且欧亚地区水汽辐散，向下长波辐射减少，对流活动减弱进而潜热释放减少，导致欧亚大陆温度降低。最后利用CAM3.0大气环流模式模拟了北大西洋海温正异常对WACE的影响，模式结果与统计结果相符合，进一步说明了北大西洋海温正异常可以通过强迫低层与高层大气环流异常，导致极区水汽辐合，欧亚大陆水汽辐散，进而影响WACE的年代际变化。Abstract: Based on the surface air temperature datasets from NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration)’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 20th century’ s reanalysis data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, and the historical experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study analyzes the interdecadal variation characteristics of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia (WACE) mode in the Eurasia and Arctic region from 1910/1911 to 2019/2020 during the boreal winter after removal of external forcing. The results show that the WACE displays remarkable interdecadal variability. When WACE is in the interdecadal positive phase, the high-frequency Ural block favors heat transport to the polar regions, leading to warm advection and water vapor transport. This, in turn, causes water vapor convergence in the polar region, leading to an increase in downward long-wave radiation and an increase in convective activity and latent heat release. This results in increasing temperatures in this region. At the same time, the weakening of the polar vortex and westerly winds in Eurasia and the high-frequency of Ural blockage favor cold air advection into Eurasia. Divergence of water vapor in Eurasia reduces downward long-wave radiation, leading to decreased convective activity and latent heat release, which in turn decreases the temperatures in Eurasia. The authors used the CAM3.0 atmospheric circulation model to simulate the North Atlantic SST (Sea Surface Temperature) influence on WACE. Model results are consistent with the statistical results, further illustrating that the North Atlantic SST positive anomaly can force the lower and upper atmospheric circulation anomalies, leading to water vapor convergence in the polar regions and divergence in Eurasia, thus affecting decadal variability of WACE.
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图 1 CMIP6模式Historical试验集合平均（蓝色实线）与观测（黑色实线）的（a）1910/1911～2019/2020年冬季全球平均地表气温距平（单位：°C）与（b）1910/1911～2013/2014年冬季全球平均海温距平（单位：°C）的3年滑动平均。距平参考时段为1960/1961～1989/1990年冬季
Figure 1. Time series of CMIP6 models’ ensemble mean (blue solid lines) and the observed anomalies (black solid lines) of (a) three-year moving average of global mean surface air temperature (SAT, units: °C) during boreal winter of 1910/1911–2019/2020, and (b) three-year moving average of sea surface temperature (SST, units: °C) during boreal winter of 1910/1911–2013/2014. The anomalies reference period is 1960/1961–1989/1990 winter
图 2 （a–d）1910/1911～2019/2020年GISS观测资料、（e–h）1910/1911～2013/2014年20CR再分析资料的冬季地表气温距平场经验正交分解（EOF）的（a、e）第一模态及（b、f）主成分（PC1）、（c、g）第二模态及（d、h）主成分（PC2）
Figure 2. (a, e) The first mode and (b, f) time coefficient (PC1), and (c, g) the second mode and (d, h) time coefficient (PC2) of EOF for surface air temperature anomalies in boreal winter obtained from (a–d) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) observation data for period of 1910/1911–2019/2020, (e–h) 20CR (Twentieth Century Reanalysis) reanalysis data for the period of 1910/1911–2013/2014
图 3 1910/1911～2019/2020年GISS资料计算的（a）冬季WACE指数墨西哥帽小波变换系数（蓝色实线）和（b）小波全谱（蓝色实线）。水平黑色点划线表示显著振荡周期。图a中黑色粗实线表示小波变换系数通过0.1显著性水平的白噪音检验，黑色细实线两侧区域表示边界效应影响域。图b中橙色虚线表示白噪音检验的0.1显著性水平线
Figure 3. (a) Wavelet analysis of Mexican cap WACE (Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia) index (blue solid lines) and (b) the global wavelet power spectrum (blue solid line) calculated from GISS datasets during boreal winter for the period of 1910/1911–2019/2020. The black horizontal dotted-dashed lines indicate the significant oscillation periods. In Fig. a, the black thick lines indicate passing the white noise test at 0.1 significance level, the regions on both sides of the black thin solid lines represent the area with boundary effect. In Fig. b, the orange dotted line indicates the 0.1 significance level for white noise test
图 4 1910/1911～2019/2020年冬季（a）WACE指数（黑色曲线）及11年滑动平均（橙色曲线），（b）WACE指数的11年滑动t检验（蓝色曲线），黑色水平实线为0.1显著性水平线
Figure 4. (a) The WACE index (black line) and 11-year moving average (orange line) and (b) 11-yr moving t-test of WACE index during boreal winter from 1910/1911 to 2019/2020. In Fig. b, the black solid line is the significance level at 0.1
图 5 冬季WACE正、负位相的差值：（a）200 hPa位势高度场（阴影，单位：gpm）、200 hPa风场（矢量箭头，单位：m s−1）和500 hPa位势高度场（等值线，单位：gpm）；（b）海平面气压（阴影，单位：Pa）、850 hPa风场（矢量箭头，单位：m s−1）。图a、b中的打点区域表示200 hPa位势高度场、海平面气压通过0.1显著性水平的t检验；紫色等值线表示500 hPa位势高度通过0.1显著性水平的t检验；风场只绘制出纬向风通过0.1显著性水平的t检验部分
Figure 5. Differences between positive and negative phases of WACE in winter: (a) 200-hPa geopotential height field (shadings, units: gpm), 200-hPa wind field (vector arrows, units: m s−1), and 500-hPa geopotential height field (contours, units: gpm); (b) sea level pressure (shadings, units: Pa) and 850-hPa wind field (vector arrows, units: m s−1). In Figs. a, b, the black dots areas indicate 200-hPa geopotential height field, sea level pressure passed the t-test at 0.1 significance level, and the purple contours areas indicate 500-hPa geopotential height field passed the t-test at 0.1 significance level, only the zonal wind field passed the t-test at 0.1 significance level are drew
图 6 冬季WACE正、负位相时期的差值：（a）950 hPa温度平流（单位：10−5 K s−1）、（b）950 hPa垂直运动导致的温度变化（单位：10−5 K s−1）、（c）地表感热通量（单位：W s−1）、（d）地表潜热通量（单位：W s−1）、（e）地表净长波辐射通量（单位：W s−1）、（f）地表净短波辐射通量（单位：W s−1）、（g）整层（1000～300 hPa）水汽通量（箭头，单位：kg m−1 s−1）及散度（阴影，单位：10−6 kg m−2 s−1）、（h）地表降水率（单位：mm s−1）。打点区域通过0.1显著性水平的t检验
Figure 6. Differences between positive and negative phases of WACE in winter: (a) 950-hPa temperature advection (units: 10−5 K s−1); (b) 950-hPa temperature change (units: 10−5 K s−1) due to vertical motion; (c) surface sensible heat fluxes (units: W s−1); (d) surface latent heat fluxes (units: W s−1); (e) net surface long-wave radiation fluxes (units: W s−1); (f) net surface short-wave radiation fluxes (units: W s−1); (g) water vapor fluxes (arrows, units: kg m−1 s−1) in the whole layer and their divergences (shadings, units: 10−6 kg m−2 s−1); (h) surface precipitation rate (units: mm s−1). The black dots area passed the t-test at 0.1 significance level
图 7 冬季WACE正、负位相时期阻塞发生频率（单位：d−1）差值，阴影区域通过0.1显著性水平的t检验
Figure 7. Differences between positive and negative phases of WACE in blocking frequency (units: d−1) during boreal winter, the shaded area passed the t-test at 0.1 significance level
图 8 1910/1911～2013/2014年（a）21年滑动平均的WACE指数与冬季海温相关系数，（b）21年滑动平均的WACE指数（橙色实线）、北大西洋区域1（图a上方蓝色矩形区域，50°～60°N，60°～20°W）与区域2（图a下方蓝色矩形区域，25°～32°N，55°～45°W）平均的去趋势后的北大西洋海温指数（NAS，灰色实线）、21年滑动平均的NAS指数（红色实线）、11年滑动平均的NAS指数（蓝色实线）。图a中，打点区域通过0.1显著性水平的t检验
Figure 8. (a) Correlation coefficients between WACE index and winter sea surface temperature after the 21-yr moving average, (b) WACE index (solid orange line) after the 21-yr moving average, sea surface temperature index (solid gray line) of the North Atlantic (NAS) averaged in region 1 (50°–60°N, 60°–20°W) and region 2 (25°–32°N, 55°–45°W) after the trend was removed, NAS (solid red line) after the 21-yr moving average, NAS (solid red line) after the 11-yr moving average from 1910/1911 to 2013/2014. In Fig. a, the dotted area passed the t-test at 0.1 significance level
图 9 （a）叠加在气候态（1949～2001）海温上的冬季海温异常强迫（单位：K）及（b）模式模拟的冬季地表气温的差值（敏感性试验结果减控制试验结果，单位：K）
Figure 9. (a) Winter SST anomalies (units: K) forcing superimposed on SST of climatic states (1949–2001), (b) the differences (sensitivity experiment results minus control experiment results) in simulated surface air temperature (units: K)
图 10 模式模拟的冬季（a）200 hPa水平风场（单位：m s−1）、（b）地表气压（单位：Pa）差值（敏感性试验结果减控制试验结果）
Figure 10. Differences (sensitivity experiment results minus control experiment results) in simulated (a) 200-hPa horizontal wind (units: m s−1), (b) surface pressure (units: Pa) in winter
图 11 模式模拟的冬季整层（1000～300 hPa）水汽通量（箭头，单位：kg m−1 s−1）及水汽通量散度差值（敏感性试验结果减控制试验结果，阴影，单位：10−6 kg m−2 s−1）
Figure 11. Differences (sensitivity experiment results minus control experiment results) in simulated water vapor fluxes (arrows, units: kg m−1 s−1) in the whole layer (1000–300 hPa) and their divergence (shadings, units: 10−6 kg m−2 s−1)
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