青藏高原中东部地表感热趋势转折特征的季节差异

王慧; 张璐; 石兴东; 李栋梁

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.21026

青藏高原中东部地表感热趋势转折特征的季节差异

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.21026

王慧^1,,
张璐^{1, 2},
石兴东^{1, 3},
李栋梁¹

1.
南京信息工程大学大气科学学院/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室，南京210044
2.
青海省气候中心，西宁810000
3.
兰州大学大气科学学院，兰州730000

基金项目: 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目2019QZKK0103，国家自然科学基金项目U20A2098

详细信息

作者简介:
王慧，女，1982年出生，博士，副教授，主要从事气候动力学和陆气相互作用研究。E-mail: wanghui123@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P461
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-02-04
- 录用日期: 2021-05-25
- 网络出版日期: 2021-05-28
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-18

Seasonal Differences in the Trend Turning Characteristics of Surface Sensible Heat over the Central and Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Hui WANG^1
,,
Lu ZHANG^{1, 2},
Xingdong SHI^{1, 3},
Dongliang LI¹

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education & Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Climate Center of Qinghai Province, Xining 810000
3.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000

Funds: Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) Program (Grant 2019QZKK0103), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant U20A2098)

摘要

摘要: 本文利用气候变化趋势转折判别模型（PLFIM），分析了1982～2018年青藏高原中东部70个气象站点地表感热趋势演变特征的季节差异，并利用线性倾向估计和方差分析方法定量评估了影响不同季节地表感热变化的关键气象要素。结果显示：（1）高原中东部四季平均地表感热通量均存在显著趋势转折特征，整体来看，秋、冬季转折时间较早（1999年），春、夏季稍晚（2000年）；分区来看，高原Ⅱ区（东部）的转折时间最早，然后向Ⅳ区（东南部）和Ⅰ区（北部）扩展，高原Ⅲ区（西南部）转折时间最晚。在地表感热趋势转折之前，以夏季的感热减弱最突出，其次为春季和秋季，冬季最弱；在地表感热趋势转折之后，冬季的地表感热的增强最强，其他季节增强趋势相当。冬季和春季高原地表感热趋势转折的关键区分别在高原的东部和南部，夏、秋季的关键区主要为高原的Ⅱ区（东部）和Ⅲ区（西南部）。（2）在地表感热趋势转折之前，地面风速的减小对高原四季地表感热的减弱趋势均有重要贡献；但地表感热趋势转折之后，影响其趋势变化的关键气象要素在四季存在显著差异，夏季仍以地面风速的变化为主导，秋、冬季受地气温差和地面风速变化的共同影响，而春季地气温差的增大成为其趋势增强的主因。同时，在地表感热的年际变化中，地气温差的影响比地面风速更加突出，特别是在秋、冬季，转折前后地气温差始终是决定其年际变化的主导因子，春季高原东部也主要受地气温差变化所影响，夏季在地表感热趋势转折之前，受地气温差和地面风速的共同影响，而转折后，地气温差对其的影响更加突出。
- 青藏高原 /
- 地表感热通量 /
- 趋势转折 /
- 地气温差 /
- 地面风速 /
- 年代际变化
Abstract: This paper employed the piecewise linear fitting model (PLFIM) to analyze the seasonal differences of Surface Sensible Heat (SSH) trend evolution characteristics at 70 meteorological stations on the central and eastern part of Tibetan Plateau (TP) during 1982–2018. The key meteorological factors influencing the changes of SSH in different seasons were quantitatively evaluated using the linear tendency estimation and variance method analysis. Results show that: (1) the seasonal average SSH fluxes on the central and eastern TP have a trend turning feature in all four seasons. As a whole, the trend turning time of autumn and winter is earlier (1999) and that of spring and summer is later (2000). In terms of region, the turning time is earliest in Zone II (Eastern part of TP) and then expands to Zone IV (Southeastern part of TP) and Zone I (Northern part of TP), while the turning time is latest in Zone III (Southwestern part of TP). Before the trend turning time, the weakening of the SSH is most prominent in summer, followed by spring and autumn, and weakest in winter. After the trend turning time, the enhancement of SSH is strongest in winter and the enhancement trend is similar in other seasons. In winter and spring, the key areas for the trend turning of SSH are in the eastern and southern part of TP, respectively, while the key areas are mainly in Zone II and III in summer and autumn. (2) Before the trend turning time, the decrease in the surface wind speed has an important contribution to the decreasing trend of the SSH in four seasons; however, after the trend turning time, the key meteorological factors affecting the trend of SSH have significant differences in the four seasons, i.e., the change of surface wind speed is still dominant in summer, whereas winter and autumn are affected by both the variations of the ground-air temperature difference and surface wind speed. The increase of ground-air temperature difference in spring is the main reason for the trend strengthening of SSH. Additionally, in the interannual variability of SSH, the effect of the ground-air temperature difference is more prominent than that of the surface wind speed, particularly in autumn and winter. The ground-air temperature difference is always the dominant factor affecting its interannual variation. The eastern part of TP is primarily affected by the ground-air temperature difference in spring. Before the trend turning time, the interannual variability of the SSH in summer is affected by both the variations of ground-air temperature difference and surface wind speed. After the trend turning time, the influence of ground-air temperature difference on the SSH is more prominent.
- Tibetan Plateau /
- Surface sensible heat flux /
- Trend turning /
- Ground-air temperature difference /
- Surface wind speed /
- Interdecadal variation

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图 1 青藏高原中东部70站分布及其下垫面草甸类型和气候区划分（引自张璐等, 2020）

Figure 1. Distribution of 70 stations in the Central and East Tibetan Plateau and their underlying surface meadow types and climatic zone division (cited from Zhang et al., 2020)

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图 2 青藏高原四季（a，c，e，g）各分区及（b，d，f，h）整体地表感热通量的逐年演变（单位：W m⁻²）：（a，b）冬季；（c，d）春季；（e，f）夏季；（g，h）秋季

Figure 2. Evolution of the surface sensible heat flux (SH) in each zone and the whole Tibetan Plateau in (a, b) winter, (c, d) spring, (e, f) summer, (g, h) autumn during 1982–2018 (units: W m⁻²)

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图 3 1982~2018年青藏高原四季70个气象站地表感热趋势转折年份分布：（a）冬季；（b）春季；（c）夏季；（d）秋季。N表示没有检测到趋势变化

Figure 3. Distribution of trend turning years of surface sensible heat at 70 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau in (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) autumn during 1982–2018. N indicates stations with no significant trend turning

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图 4 1982~2018年青藏高原四季各站地表感热趋势（a1–d1）转折前和（a2–d2）转折后气候倾向率分布 [单位：W m⁻²(10a)⁻¹]：（a1，a2）冬季；（b1，b2）春季；（c1，c2）夏季；（d1，d2）秋季。实心圆点表示通过了α=0.05的显著性水平t检验

Figure 4. Distribution of climate tendency rates (a1–d1) before and (a2–d2) after the trend turning years of the surface sensible heat at 70 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau in (a1, a2) winter, (b1, b2) spring, (c1, c2) summer, and (d1, d2) autumn [units: W m⁻²(10a)⁻¹]; Solid points are passing tested by α=0.05 significance level t-test

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图 5 1982~2018年青藏高原四季地表温度、气温、地气温差和地面风速标准化序列：（a）冬季，（b）春季，（c）夏季，（d）秋季

Figure 5. Standardized series of the ground temperature, air temperature, ground-air temperature difference, and surface wind speed on the Tibetan Plateau in (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) autumn during 1982–2018

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图 6 青藏高原四季地表感热趋势（a1–d1）转折前和（a2–d2）转折后各气象站点地气温差（红点）和地面风速（蓝星）对其影响的方差贡献率超过50%的站点分布（单位：％）：（a1–a2）冬季；（b1–b2）春季；（c1–c2）夏季；（d1–d2）秋季。图中数值表示方差贡献率

Figure 6. Distribution of stations with the variance contribution rate of ground–air temperature difference (red dots) or surface wind speed (blue stars) on the surface sensible heat variation over 50% before and after the trend turning years of the surface sensible heat on the Tibetan Plateau in (a1–a2) winter, (b1–b2) spring, (c1–c2) summer, and (d1–d2) autumn (units: %). The values in the figures represent the variance contribution rate

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图 7 82~2018年东亚副热带地区四季平均200 hPa（U200，实线）和500 hPa（U500，虚线）纬向风变化（范围：25°~45°N，80°~120°E）：（a）冬季；（b）春季；（c）夏季；（d）秋季

Figure 7. Seasonal mean zonal wind variations of 200 hPa (U200, solid line) and 500 hPa (U500, dotted line) over the East Asian subtropics (range: 25°N–45°N, 80°E–120°E) during 1982–2018 in (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) autumn

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表 1 青藏高原四季整体及各区地表感热趋势转折年份及其趋势转折前、后的气候倾向率

Table 1. Table 1 Climatic tendency rates before and after the trend turning time of the surface sensible heat flux on each district and the whole Tibetan Plateau in four seasons

		气候倾向率 /W m⁻² (10a)⁻¹
		Ⅰ区	Ⅱ区	Ⅲ区	Ⅳ区	全区
冬季	转折年	1998	1998	2004	2000	1999
	转折前	−2.23**	−1.43**	−0.60	−2.43**	−1.29**
	转折后	3.90**	3.80**	3.07*	2.89**	3.12**
春季	转折年	2003	1997	2002	2000	2000
	转折前	−3.14**	−1.98*	−4.68**	−5.57*	−3.25**
	转折后	1.17	2.73**	2.60*	3.94*	2.82**
夏季	转折年	2000	2000	2001	2000	2000
	转折前	−4.76**	−2.59*	−6.99**	−5.88**	−4.57**
	转折后	1.14	3.14*	3.45*	1.94	2.86*
秋季	转折年	2000	1998	2002	1999	1999
	转折前	−2.41**	−2.14**	−2.33**	−2.69*	−2.39**
	转折后	4.59**	2.69**	3.15*	2.28*	2.78**
注：*表示通过α=0.01显著性水平t检验，表示通过α=0.05显著性水平t检验

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表 2 青藏高原四季各区及整体地表温度（$T_{\rm{s}} $）、气温（$T_{\rm{a}} $）、地气温差（$T_{\rm{s}} $－$T_{\rm{a}} $）和地面风速（$V $）在地表感热趋势转折前、后的气候倾向率（$R_{\rm{ct}} $）

Table 2. Climate tendency rates ($R_{\rm{ct}} $) of the ground temperature ($T_{\rm{s}} $), air temperature ($T_{\rm{a}} $), ground-air temperature difference ($T_{\rm{s}} $－$T_{\rm{a}} $), and surface wind speed ($V $) before and after the trend turning years of surface sensible heat on each district and whole Tibetan Plateau in four seasons

			Ⅰ区	Ⅱ区	Ⅲ区	Ⅳ区	全区
冬季		转折年	1998	1998	2004	2000	1999
	R_ct (T_s)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.17	0.02	0.59*	0.47	0.36
	R_ct (T_s)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.73*	0.90**	0.34	0.63**	0.72**
	R_ct (T_a)/°C(10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.40	0.13	0.51	0.57	0.38
	R_ct (T_a)/°C(10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.14	0.35	0.08	0.42	0.31
	R_ct (T_s－T_a) /°C(10a)⁻¹	转折前	−0.23*	−0.10	0.08	−0.10	−0.02
	R_ct (T_s－T_a) /°C(10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.59**	0.54**	0.26	0.22	0.41**
	R_ct (V) /m s⁻¹ (10a)⁻¹	转折前	−0.13	−0.29**	−0.40**	−0.30**	−0.29**
	R_ct (V) /m s⁻¹ (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.04	0.20**	0.30**	0.20**	0.18**
春季		转折年	2003	1997	2002	2000	2000
	R_ct (T_s)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.79**	0.54**	0.48	0.45	0.69**
	R_ct (T_s)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.60*	0.58*	0.32	0.63*	0.73**
	R_ct (T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.73**	0.46	0.30	0.50*	0.59*
	R_ct (T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.40	0.32	0.14	0.47*	0.51*
	R_ct (T_s－T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.06	0.08	0.17	−0.06	0.10
	R_ct (T_s－T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.20	0.25**	0.18	0.16	0.22
	R_ct (V)/m s⁻¹ (10a)⁻¹	转折前	−0.26**	−0.26**	−0.49**	−0.37*	−0.33**
	R_ct (V)/m s⁻¹ (10a)⁻¹	转折后	−0.06	0.06	0.11	0.16*	0.08
夏季		转折年	2000	2000	2001	2000	2000
	R_ct (T_s)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.91**	0.63**	−0.03	0.03	0.39**
	R_ct (T_s)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.31	0.45	0.39	0.20	0.40
	R_ct (T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.89**	0.55**	0.14	0.07	0.40**
	R_ct (T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.21	0.44	0.39	0.40*	0.40*
	R_ct (T_s－T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.03	0.08	−0.17	−0.03	0.00
	R_ct (T_s－T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.10	0.01	0.00	−0.19	0.00
	R_ct (V)/m s⁻¹ (10a)⁻¹	转折前	−0.28**	−0.21**	−0.40**	−0.36**	−0.29**
	R_ct (V)/m s⁻¹ (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.04	0.17**	0.21**	0.19**	0.17**
秋季		转折年	2000	1998	2002	1999	1999
	R_ct (T_s)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.29	0.18	0.56*	0.63*	0.47
	R_ct (T_s)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.85**	0.47**	0.54	0.32	0.52*
	R_ct (T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	0.50	0.25	0.53*	0.68*	0.50
	R_ct (T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.10	0.22	0.42	0.35	0.28
	R_ct (T_s－T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折前	−0.21*	−0.08	0.03	−0.04	−0.03
	R_ct (T_s－T_a)/°C (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.75**	0.25*	0.12	−0.03	0.24*
	R_ct (V)/m s⁻¹ (10a)⁻¹	转折前	−0.13*	−0.19**	−0.29**	−0.21**	−0.23**
	R_ct (V)/m s⁻¹ (10a)⁻¹	转折后	0.04	0.15**	0.32**	0.20**	0.16**
注：*表示通过α=0.01显著性t检验，表示通过α=0.05显著性t检验

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表 3 青藏高原地表感热趋势转折前、后地气温差和地面风速对其年际变化影响的方差贡献率超过50％的站点比例

Table 3. Proportion of stations with the variance contribution rate of the ground-air temperature difference and surface wind speed on the surface sensible heat variation over 50% before and after the trend turning years of the surface sensible heat on each district and the whole Tibetan Plateau in four seasons

季节	影响因子	方差贡献率超过50%的站点比例
		转折前					转折后
		Ⅰ区	Ⅱ区	Ⅲ区	Ⅳ区	全区	Ⅰ区	Ⅱ区	Ⅲ区	Ⅳ区	全区
冬季	地气温差	6/7	24/24	13/14	8/8	51/53	7/7	21/23	12/13	9/9	49/52
冬季	地面风速	1/7	0/24	1/14	0/8	2/53	0/7	2/23	1/13	0/9	3/52
春季	地气温差	2/5	18/22	6/14	8/9	34/50	3/5	21/25	4/13	8/10	36/53
春季	地面风速	3/5	4/22	8/14	1/9	16/50	2/5	4/25	9/13	2/10	17/53
夏季	地气温差	2/4	12/23	6/14	4/8	24/49	3/4	18/22	7/13	8/9	36/48
夏季	地面风速	2/4	11/23	8/14	4/8	25/49	1/4	4/22	6/13	1/9	12/48
秋季	地气温差	5/6	16/25	9/12	7/9	37/52	7/7	24/27	9/14	8/9	48/57
秋季	地面风速	1/6	9/25	3/12	2/9	15/52	0/7	3/27	5/14	1/9	9/57

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