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青藏高原中东部地表感热趋势转折特征的季节差异

王慧 张璐 石兴东 李栋梁

王慧, 张璐, 石兴东, 等. 2022. 青藏高原中东部地表感热趋势转折特征的季节差异[J]. 大气科学, 46(1): 133−150 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.21026
引用本文: 王慧, 张璐, 石兴东, 等. 2022. 青藏高原中东部地表感热趋势转折特征的季节差异[J]. 大气科学, 46(1): 133−150 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.21026
WANG Hui, ZHANG Lu, SHI Xingdong, et al. 2022. Seasonal Differences in the Trend Turning Characteristics of Surface Sensible Heat over the Central and Eastern Tibetan Plateau [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(1): 133−150 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.21026
Citation: WANG Hui, ZHANG Lu, SHI Xingdong, et al. 2022. Seasonal Differences in the Trend Turning Characteristics of Surface Sensible Heat over the Central and Eastern Tibetan Plateau [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(1): 133−150 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.21026

青藏高原中东部地表感热趋势转折特征的季节差异

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.21026
基金项目: 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目2019QZKK0103,国家自然科学基金项目U20A2098
详细信息
    作者简介:

    王慧,女,1982年出生,博士,副教授,主要从事气候动力学和陆气相互作用研究。E-mail: wanghui123@nuist.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P461

Seasonal Differences in the Trend Turning Characteristics of Surface Sensible Heat over the Central and Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Funds: Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) Program (Grant 2019QZKK0103), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant U20A2098)
  • 摘要: 本文利用气候变化趋势转折判别模型(PLFIM),分析了1982~2018年青藏高原中东部70个气象站点地表感热趋势演变特征的季节差异,并利用线性倾向估计和方差分析方法定量评估了影响不同季节地表感热变化的关键气象要素。结果显示:(1)高原中东部四季平均地表感热通量均存在显著趋势转折特征,整体来看,秋、冬季转折时间较早(1999年),春、夏季稍晚(2000年);分区来看,高原Ⅱ区(东部)的转折时间最早,然后向Ⅳ区(东南部)和Ⅰ区(北部)扩展,高原Ⅲ区(西南部)转折时间最晚。在地表感热趋势转折之前,以夏季的感热减弱最突出,其次为春季和秋季,冬季最弱;在地表感热趋势转折之后,冬季的地表感热的增强最强,其他季节增强趋势相当。冬季和春季高原地表感热趋势转折的关键区分别在高原的东部和南部,夏、秋季的关键区主要为高原的Ⅱ区(东部)和Ⅲ区(西南部)。(2)在地表感热趋势转折之前,地面风速的减小对高原四季地表感热的减弱趋势均有重要贡献;但地表感热趋势转折之后,影响其趋势变化的关键气象要素在四季存在显著差异,夏季仍以地面风速的变化为主导,秋、冬季受地气温差和地面风速变化的共同影响,而春季地气温差的增大成为其趋势增强的主因。同时,在地表感热的年际变化中,地气温差的影响比地面风速更加突出,特别是在秋、冬季,转折前后地气温差始终是决定其年际变化的主导因子,春季高原东部也主要受地气温差变化所影响,夏季在地表感热趋势转折之前,受地气温差和地面风速的共同影响,而转折后,地气温差对其的影响更加突出。
  • 图  1  青藏高原中东部70站分布及其下垫面草甸类型和气候区划分(引自张璐等, 2020

    Figure  1.  Distribution of 70 stations in the Central and East Tibetan Plateau and their underlying surface meadow types and climatic zone division (cited from Zhang et al., 2020)

    图  2  青藏高原四季(a,c,e,g)各分区及(b,d,f,h)整体地表感热通量的逐年演变(单位:W m−2):(a,b)冬季;(c,d)春季;(e,f)夏季;(g,h)秋季

    Figure  2.  Evolution of the surface sensible heat flux (SH) in each zone and the whole Tibetan Plateau in (a, b) winter, (c, d) spring, (e, f) summer, (g, h) autumn during 1982–2018 (units: W m−2)

    图  3  1982~2018年青藏高原四季70个气象站地表感热趋势转折年份分布:(a)冬季;(b)春季;(c)夏季;(d)秋季。N表示没有检测到趋势变化

    Figure  3.  Distribution of trend turning years of surface sensible heat at 70 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau in (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) autumn during 1982–2018. N indicates stations with no significant trend turning

    图  4  1982~2018年青藏高原四季各站地表感热趋势(a1–d1)转折前和(a2–d2)转折后气候倾向率分布 [单位:W m−2 (10a)−1]:(a1,a2)冬季;(b1,b2)春季;(c1,c2)夏季;(d1,d2)秋季。实心圆点表示通过了α=0.05的显著性水平t检验

    Figure  4.  Distribution of climate tendency rates (a1–d1) before and (a2–d2) after the trend turning years of the surface sensible heat at 70 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau in (a1, a2) winter, (b1, b2) spring, (c1, c2) summer, and (d1, d2) autumn [units: W m−2 (10a)−1]; Solid points are passing tested by α=0.05 significance level t-test

    图  5  1982~2018年青藏高原四季地表温度、气温、地气温差和地面风速标准化序列:(a)冬季,(b)春季,(c)夏季,(d)秋季

    Figure  5.  Standardized series of the ground temperature, air temperature, ground-air temperature difference, and surface wind speed on the Tibetan Plateau in (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) autumn during 1982–2018

    图  6  青藏高原四季地表感热趋势(a1–d1)转折前和(a2–d2)转折后各气象站点地气温差(红点)和地面风速(蓝星)对其影响的方差贡献率超过50%的站点分布(单位:%):(a1–a2)冬季;(b1–b2)春季;(c1–c2)夏季;(d1–d2)秋季。图中数值表示方差贡献率

    Figure  6.  Distribution of stations with the variance contribution rate of ground–air temperature difference (red dots) or surface wind speed (blue stars) on the surface sensible heat variation over 50% before and after the trend turning years of the surface sensible heat on the Tibetan Plateau in (a1–a2) winter, (b1–b2) spring, (c1–c2) summer, and (d1–d2) autumn (units: %). The values in the figures represent the variance contribution rate

    图  7  82~2018年东亚副热带地区四季平均200 hPa(U200,实线)和500 hPa(U500,虚线)纬向风变化(范围:25°~45°N,80°~120°E):(a)冬季;(b)春季;(c)夏季;(d)秋季

    Figure  7.  Seasonal mean zonal wind variations of 200 hPa (U200, solid line) and 500 hPa (U500, dotted line) over the East Asian subtropics (range: 25°N–45°N, 80°E–120°E) during 1982–2018 in (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) autumn

    表  1  青藏高原四季整体及各区地表感热趋势转折年份及其趋势转折前、后的气候倾向率

    Table  1.   Table 1 Climatic tendency rates before and after the trend turning time of the surface sensible heat flux on each district and the whole Tibetan Plateau in four seasons

    气候倾向率 /W m−2 (10a)−1
    Ⅰ区Ⅱ区Ⅲ区Ⅳ区全区
    冬季转折年19981998200420001999
    转折前−2.23**−1.43**−0.60−2.43**−1.29**
    转折后3.90**3.80**3.07*2.89**3.12**
    春季转折年20031997200220002000
    转折前−3.14**−1.98*−4.68**−5.57*−3.25**
    转折后1.172.73**2.60*3.94*2.82**
    夏季转折年20002000200120002000
    转折前−4.76**−2.59*−6.99**−5.88**−4.57**
    转折后1.143.14*3.45*1.942.86*
    秋季转折年20001998200219991999
    转折前−2.41**−2.14**−2.33**−2.69*−2.39**
    转折后4.59**2.69**3.15*2.28*2.78**
    注:**表示通过α=0.01显著性水平t检验,*表示通过α=0.05显著性水平t检验
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  青藏高原四季各区及整体地表温度($T_{\rm{s}} $)、气温($T_{\rm{a}} $)、地气温差($T_{\rm{s}} $$T_{\rm{a}} $)和地面风速($V $)在地表感热趋势转折前、后的气候倾向率($R_{\rm{ct}} $

    Table  2.   Climate tendency rates ($R_{\rm{ct}} $) of the ground temperature ($T_{\rm{s}} $), air temperature ($T_{\rm{a}} $), ground-air temperature difference ($T_{\rm{s}} $$T_{\rm{a}} $), and surface wind speed ($V $) before and after the trend turning years of surface sensible heat on each district and whole Tibetan Plateau in four seasons

    Ⅰ区Ⅱ区Ⅲ区Ⅳ区全区
    冬季转折年19981998200420001999
    Rct (Ts)/°C (10a)−1转折前0.170.02 0.59*0.470.36
    转折后 0.73* 0.90**0.34 0.63** 0.72**
    Rct (Ta)/°C(10a)−1转折前0.400.130.510.570.38
    转折后0.140.350.080.420.31
    Rct (TsTa) /°C(10a)−1转折前−0.23*−0.10 0.08−0.10 −0.02
    转折后 0.59** 0.54**0.260.22 0.41**
    Rct (V) /m s−1 (10a)−1转折前−0.13 −0.29** −0.40** −0.30** −0.29**
    转折后0.04 0.20** 0.30** 0.20** 0.18**
    春季转折年20031997200220002000
    Rct (Ts)/°C (10a)−1转折前 0.79** 0.54**0.480.45 0.69**
    转折后 0.60* 0.58*0.32 0.63* 0.73**
    Rct (Ta)/°C (10a)−1转折前 0.73**0.460.30 0.50* 0.59*
    转折后0.400.320.14 0.47* 0.51*
    Rct (TsTa)/°C (10a)−1转折前0.060.080.17−0.06 0.10
    转折后0.20 0.25**0.180.160.22
    Rct (V)/m s−1 (10a)−1转折前 −0.26** −0.26** −0.49**−0.37* −0.33**
    转折后−0.06 0.060.11 0.16*0.08
    夏季转折年20002000200120002000
    Rct (Ts)/°C (10a)−1转折前 0.91** 0.63**−0.03 0.03 0.39**
    转折后0.310.450.390.200.40
    Rct (Ta)/°C (10a)−1转折前 0.89** 0.55**0.140.07 0.40**
    转折后0.210.440.39 0.40* 0.40*
    Rct (TsTa)/°C (10a)−1转折前0.030.08−0.17 −0.03 0.00
    转折后0.100.010.00−0.19 0.00
    Rct (V)/m s−1 (10a)−1转折前 −0.28** −0.21** −0.40** −0.36** −0.29**
    转折后0.04 0.17** 0.21** 0.19** 0.17**
    秋季转折年20001998200219991999
    Rct (Ts)/°C (10a)−1转折前0.290.18 0.56* 0.63*0.47
    转折后 0.85** 0.47**0.540.32 0.52*
    Rct (Ta)/°C (10a)−1转折前0.500.25 0.53* 0.68*0.50
    转折后0.100.220.420.350.28
    Rct (TsTa)/°C (10a)−1转折前−0.21*−0.08 0.03−0.04 −0.03
    转折后 0.75** 0.25*0.12−0.03 0.24*
    Rct (V)/m s−1 (10a)−1转折前−0.13* −0.19** −0.29** −0.21** −0.23**
    转折后0.04 0.15** 0.32** 0.20** 0.16**
    注:**表示通过α=0.01显著性t检验,*表示通过α=0.05显著性t检验
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  青藏高原地表感热趋势转折前、后地气温差和地面风速对其年际变化影响的方差贡献率超过50%的站点比例

    Table  3.   Proportion of stations with the variance contribution rate of the ground-air temperature difference and surface wind speed on the surface sensible heat variation over 50% before and after the trend turning years of the surface sensible heat on each district and the whole Tibetan Plateau in four seasons

    季节影响因子方差贡献率超过50%的站点比例
    转折前转折后
    Ⅰ区Ⅱ区Ⅲ区Ⅳ区全区Ⅰ区Ⅱ区Ⅲ区Ⅳ区全区
    冬季地气温差6/724/2413/148/851/537/721/2312/139/949/52
    地面风速1/70/241/140/82/530/72/231/130/93/52
    春季地气温差2/518/226/148/934/503/521/254/138/1036/53
    地面风速3/54/228/141/916/502/54/259/132/1017/53
    夏季地气温差2/412/236/144/824/493/418/227/138/936/48
    地面风速2/411/238/144/825/491/44/226/131/912/48
    秋季地气温差5/616/259/127/937/527/724/279/148/948/57
    地面风速1/69/253/122/915/520/73/275/141/99/57
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-02-04
  • 录用日期:  2021-05-25
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-05-28
  • 刊出日期:  2022-01-18

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