中国南方大范围持续性低温、雨雪和冰冻组合性灾害事件：客观识别方法及关键特征

宗海锋; 布和朝鲁; 彭京备; 林大伟

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2108.21052

中国南方大范围持续性低温、雨雪和冰冻组合性灾害事件：客观识别方法及关键特征

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2108.21052

1.
中国科学大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心, 北京 100029
2.
中国气象局云雾物理环境重点开放实验室, 北京, 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41975072、41675086，国家科技支撑计划项目2015BAC03B03

详细信息

作者简介:
宗海锋，男，1975年出生，副研究员，主要从事短期气候预测及极端天气气候事件研究。E-mail: zhf@mail.iap.ac.cn

通讯作者:
布和朝鲁，E-mail: bueh@lasg.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P433
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-04-10
- 录用日期: 2021-12-02
- 网络出版日期: 2021-10-08
- 刊出日期: 2022-09-22

Combined Disaster Events of Extensive and Persistent Low Temperatures, Rain/Snow, and Freezing in Southern China: Objective Identification and Key Features

1.
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
Key Laboratory for Cloud Physics of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41975072, 41675086), National Key Technologies R&D Program of China (Grant 2015BAC03B03)

摘要

摘要: 组合性灾害事件是指同时出现的若干个天气灾害的组合，它的发生会明显加重致灾程度。本文利用1961～2013年冬季我国南方区域206个台站的日平均温度、日降水量及雨凇资料，建立了冬季大范围持续性低温、雨雪和冰冻组合性灾害事件的客观识别方法，并揭示了三类组合性灾害事件的关键特征。首先，基于低温、雨雪、冰冻天气的强度和面积阈值以及持续天数建立了大范围持续性低温事件、雨雪事件以及冰冻事件各自的客观判识方法。在此基础上界定出了三类常见组合性灾害事件，即低温—雨雪灾害事件（C-RS）、低温—冰冻灾害事件（C-F）以及低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件（C-RS-F）。三类组合性灾害事件常见于1月上旬至2月中旬。尽管三类组合性灾害事件在低温和降水等方面有相似之处，但其形成条件却明显不同。充沛的水汽供应和大范围强烈的水汽辐合是低温—雨雪灾害事件和低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件发生的关键条件，而逆温层和冷垫则是低温—冰冻灾害事件和低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件发生的必要条件。亚洲中高纬大型斜脊系统是低温—冰冻灾害事件和低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件的关键环流特征，为强冷空气活动提供了有利环流条件。低温—雨雪灾害事件期间亚洲中高纬则盛行波状环流，有利于适度冷空气活动。在水汽供应和逆温层形成方面，三类组合性灾害事件受控于不同的副热带异常环流系统。孟加拉湾南支槽和南海上空异常反气旋分别是低温—雨雪灾害事件和低温—冰冻灾害事件形成的副热带关键环流系统，而孟加拉湾南支槽和西北太平洋异常反气旋相结合为低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件形成的副热带关键环流系统。
- 大型斜脊 /
- 南支槽 /
- 西北太平洋异常反气旋 /
- 逆温层
Abstract: Combined disaster events refer to the combination of several simultaneously occurring weather disasters. In this paper, the daily mean temperature, precipitation, and glaze data of 206 stations over southern China in winter from 1961 to 2013 are integrated to establish an objective method for identifying combined disaster events of extensive and persistent low temperatures, rain/snow, and freezing weather in winter, and the key features of these kinds of combined disaster events are discussed. First, the identification methods for extensive and persistent low temperatures and rain/snow and freezing events are proposed according to the thresholds of their intensities and impact areas. The three most prominent combined disaster events, namely cold-rain/snow (C-RS), cold-freezing (C-F), and C-RS-freezing (C-RS-F) disaster events, are identified. These combined disaster events often occur from early January to mid-February. Although they have similar low temperatures and precipitation levels, their formation conditions are significantly different. Abundant water vapor supply and large-scale strong water vapor convergence are key conditions for the occurrence of C-RS and C-RS-F disaster events, while an inversion layer and cold pad are necessary conditions for the occurrence of C-F and C-RS-F disaster events. The large-scale tilted ridge in mid- and high-latitude Asia is the key circulation feature of C-F and C-RS-F disaster events. It provides favorable circulation conditions for strong cold air activities. During C-RS disaster events, wavy circulation prevails in mid- and high-latitude Asia, which is conducive to moderate cold air activities. The water vapor supply and inversion layer formation associated with the three kinds of combined disaster events are controlled by different subtropical anomalous circulation systems. The southern branch trough over the Bay of Bengal and the anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea are key subtropical circulation systems for the formation of C-RS and C-F disaster events, respectively, while the combination of the southern branch trough over the Bay of Bengal and anomalous anticyclone over Northwestern Pacific is the key circulation system for the formation of C-RS-F disaster events.
- Large-scale tilted ridge /
- Trough over the Bay of Bengal /
- Anomalous anticyclone over northwestern Pacific /
- Inversion layer

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图 1 2008年1月1日至2月28日中国南方低温（蓝色柱）、雨雪（绿色柱）和冰冻（红色柱）影响面积（网格数）。图中蓝（绿、红）虚线分别为低温（雨雪、冰冻）影响面积阈值（网格数）

Figure 1. Impact area (grid numbers) of low temperature (blue bars), rain/snow (green bars), and freezing (red bars) from January 1 to February 28, 2008 in southern China. The blue, green, and red dashed lines correspond to the respective thresholds (grid numbers)

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图 2 中国南方（a）206站（红点）及其所占网格（绿网格），（b）低温阈值（单位：°C）和（c）雨雪阈值（单位：mm d⁻¹）空间分布

Figure 2. Spatial distributions of (a) 206 stations (red dots) and grids containing 206 stations (green grids); threshold for (b) low temperature (units: °C) and (c) rain/snow (units: mm d⁻¹)

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图 3 1961～2013年冬季我国南方大范围持续性低温灾害事件（蓝色柱），大范围持续性雨雪灾害事件（绿色柱）和大范围持续性冰冻灾害事件（红色柱）发生时段。柱的下（上）缘对应事件开始（结束）日期，柱的长度对应事件持续天数（单位：d）

Figure 3. Time of occurrence of extensive and persistent low temperature events (blue bars), rain/snow disaster events (green bars), and freezing disaster events (red bars) in winter from 1961 to 2013 in southern China. The bottom (top) edge of the bar corresponds to the start (end) date, and the length of the bar corresponds to the event duration (units: d)

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图 4 1961～2013年不同灾害事件逐年累计频数（蓝色柱）和天数（红色柱，单位：d）：（a）非组合性低温灾害事件（N-C）；（b）低温—雨雪灾害事件（C-RS）；（c）低温—冰冻灾害事件（C-F）；（d）低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件（C-RS-F）。图中左、右纵坐标刻度分别对应累计频数值和累计天数值

Figure 4. Cumulative occurrences frequency (blue bars) and days (red bars, units: d) of different disaster events in winter from 1961 to 2013: (a) Non-combined cold disaster event (N-C); (b) cold-rain/snow disaster event (C-RS); (c) cold-freezing disaster event (C-F); (d) cold-rain/snow-freezing disaster event (C-RS-F). The scales of the left and right Y-axis correspond to the cumulative occurrences and days, respectively

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图 5 1961～2013年冬季各旬出现灾害性事件累计频数：（a）非组合性低温灾害事件（N-C）；（b）低温—雨雪灾害事件（C-RS）；（c）低温—冰冻灾害事件（C-F）；（d）低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件（C-RS-F）

Figure 5. Cumulative occurrences frequency for different disaster events in every dekad in winter from 1961 to 2013: (a) Non-combined cold disaster event (N-C); (b) cold-rain/snow disaster event (C-RS); (c) cold-freezing disaster event (C-F); (d) cold-rain/snow-freezing disaster event (C-RS-F)

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图 6 我国南方地区台站达到灾害性天气标准的次数与灾害性事件总数的比率：（a）非组合性低温灾害事件（N-C）；（b）低温—雨雪灾害事件（C-RS）；（c）低温—冰冻灾害事件（C-F）；（d）低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件（C-RS-F）。图中等值线间隔0.1，斜线阴影区为比率≥0.5的区域。

Figure 6. Ratio of the number of times each station meets the disastrous weather standard in southern China to the total number of disastrous events: (a) Non-combined cold disaster event (N-C); (b) cold-rain/snow disaster event (C-RS); (c) cold-freezing disaster event (C-F); (d) cold-rain/snow-freezing disaster event (C-RS-F). Diagonal shadings in Fig. 6 indicate regions with a ratio of ≥0.5。

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图 7 三类组合性灾害性事件500 hPa位势高度及其距平（左列，等值线间隔：20 gpm）、海平面气压（SLP）距平（中间列，等值线间隔：200 hPa）和地面气温距平（右列，等值线间隔：1°C）合成分布：C-RS灾害事件（第一行）；C-F灾害事件（第二行）；C-RS-F灾害事件（第三行）。图中细红（蓝）等值线分别对应正（负）距平，距平零线略。（a，d，g）中粗黑等值线为位势高度，等值线间隔为80 gpm。（b，e，h）中粗实（虚）线为SLP1030 hPa等值线（冬季平均）。（c，f，i）中粗实（虚）等值线为0°C等温线（冬季平均）。图中浅灰色阴影区为距平超过95%置信水平的区域，深灰色区域为海拔高度≥1500 m的区域

Figure 7. Composite distributions of 500 hPa geopotential height and its anomalies (left column, contour intervals: 20 gpm), SLP (Sea Level Pressure) and its anomalies (middle column, contour intervals: 200 hPa), and temperature anomalies (right column, contour intervals: 1°C) of C-RS (top line), C-F (second line), and C-RS-F (bottom line) disastrous weather events. Thin red (blue) contours represent positive (negative) anomalies; the zero isoline is eliminated. Thick contours in (a, d, g), corresponding to geopotential height, are drawn for every 80 gpm; the thick solid (dash) lines in (b, e, h) and (c, f, i) represent 1030 hPa isobar and 0°C isotherm (for climatological winter mean), respectively. Light gray shadings indicate height (SLP, temperature) anomalies beyond the 95% significance level; dark gray shadings indicate regions with an altitude of ≥1500 m

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图 9 低温—雨雪灾害事件（C-RS，第一行）、低温—冰冻灾害事件（C-F，第二行）和低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件（C-RS-F）三类组合性灾害性事件925 hPa（左列）、850 hPa（中间列）和700 hPa（右列）风场距平（矢量）合成分布。深灰色阴影区为海拔高度≥1500 m的区域，蓝实线为0°C等温线，红虚线为27°N位置，绿（紫）色阴影区对应850 hPa、700 hPa层温度与925 hPa层温度差值≥0°C（1°C）的区域，黑矢量箭头对应风场距平矢量分量超过95%置信水平

Figure 9. Composite distributions of wind anomalies (vectors, units: m s⁻¹) at 925 hPa (left panel), 850 hPa (middle panel), and 700 hPa (right panel) levels for cold-rain/snow (C-RS, top line), cold-freezing (C-F, second line), and cold-rain/snow-freezing (C-RS-F, bottom line) combined disastrous weather events. Dark gray shadings indicate regions with an altitude of ≥1500 m, blue solid lines represent 0°C isotherm, red dashed lines represent the location of 27°N, green (purple) shadow areas represent the areas where the temperature difference between the 850 hPa, 700 hPa, and 925 hPa layers are greater than or equal to 0°C (1°C); black vector arrow indicates that the vector component of the corresponding wind anomalies exceeds the 95% significance level

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图 8 三类组合性灾害性事件850 hPa（第一行）、700 hPa（第二行）水汽通量距平（矢量，单位：g s⁻¹ cm⁻¹ hPa⁻¹）及水汽通量散度距平（等值线，单位：g s⁻¹ cm⁻² hPa⁻¹）合成分布：（a、d）低温-雨雪灾害事件（C-RS）；（b、e）低温—冰冻灾害事件（C-F）；（c、f）低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件（C-RS-F）。浅灰色阴影区为水汽通量散度距平超过95%置信水平的区域，深灰色阴影区为海拔高度≥1500 m的区域

Figure 8. Composite distributions of mean water vapor flux anomalies (vectors, units: g s⁻¹ cm⁻¹ hPa⁻¹) and water flux divergence anomalies (contours, units: g s⁻¹ cm⁻² hPa⁻¹) at the 850 hPa (top line) and 700 hPa (bottom line) level during (a, d) cold-rain/snow (C-RS), (b, e) cold-freezing (C-F) and (c, f) cold-rain/snow-freezing (C-RS-F) disastrous weather events. Light gray shadings indicate water vapor flux divergence anomalies beyond the 95% significance level; dark gray shadings indicate regions with an altitude of ≥1500 m

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表 1 三类组合性灾害事件起止日期及持续天数

Table 1. Starting and ending dates, durations of three kinds of combined-disastrous events

编号	低温—雨雪灾害事件		低温—冰冻灾害事件		低温—雨雪—冰冻灾害事件
编号	起止日期	持续天数/d	起止日期	持续天数/d	起止日期	持续天数/d
1	1963年2月8～10日	3	1964年2月10～12日	3	1964年2月19～24日	6
2	1967年1月30日至2月2日	4	1966年12月26～29日	4	1968年2月4～6日	3
3	1968年1月22～24日	3	1967年1月9～11日	3	1969年1月29～31日	3
4	1971年1月27～29日	3	1969年1月1～4日	4	1969年2月18～20日	3
5	1974年1月24～26日	3	1970年1月5～7日	3	1972年2月3～8日	6
6	1985年2月25～27日	3	1980年2月1～3日	3	1974年1月29日至2月5日	8
7	1986年2月3～5日	3	1981年1月26～28日	3	1977年1月27～30日	4
8	1989年1月17～19日	3	1982年1月29～31日	3	1981年1月29～31日	3
9	1989年2月5～8日	4	1984年1月22～28日	7	1982年2月5～9日	5
10	1991年1月4～6日	3	1988年1月24～26日	3	1984年1月17～21日	5
11	1992年2月7～11日	5	1991年12月29～31日	3	1985年2月18～20日	3
12	1993年1月12～15日	4	1994年1月19～21日	3	1985年12月9～11日	3
13	1993年2月23～25日	3	1998年1月19～21日	3	1989年1月12～14日	3
14	1996年1月13～15日	3	2008年1月22～24日	3	1991年12月25～28日	4
15	1997年2月3～7日	5	2011年1月4～7日	4	1996年2月17～23日	7
16	1998年1月15～17日	3	2013年1月5～7日	3	2008年1月18～21日	4
17	2004年1月18～20日	3	－		2008年1月25日至2月2日	9
18	2004年12月23～28日	6	－		－
19	2005年1月10～13日	4	－		－
20	2005年2月10～13日	4	－		－

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