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中国冬季气温不同年代际的季节内变化特征及成因分析

马锋敏 陈丽娟 李想 李维京 许彬

马锋敏, 陈丽娟, 李想, 等. 2022. 中国冬季气温不同年代际的季节内变化特征及成因分析[J]. 大气科学, 46(3): 573−589 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2110.21027
引用本文: 马锋敏, 陈丽娟, 李想, 等. 2022. 中国冬季气温不同年代际的季节内变化特征及成因分析[J]. 大气科学, 46(3): 573−589 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2110.21027
MA Fengmin, CHEN Lijuan, LI Xiang, et al. 2022. Characteristics and Causes of Intraseasonal Variation of Winter Temperature in China under Different Interdecadal Scale [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(3): 573−589 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2110.21027
Citation: MA Fengmin, CHEN Lijuan, LI Xiang, et al. 2022. Characteristics and Causes of Intraseasonal Variation of Winter Temperature in China under Different Interdecadal Scale [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(3): 573−589 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2110.21027

中国冬季气温不同年代际的季节内变化特征及成因分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2110.21027
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41275073,国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1506006,国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2015CB453203
详细信息
    作者简介:

    马锋敏,女,1982年出生,硕士、高级工程师,主要从事气候异常诊断和气候预测研究。E-mail: mafengmin1982 @126.com

    通讯作者:

    陈丽娟,E-mail:chenlj@cma.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P461

Characteristics and Causes of Intraseasonal Variation of Winter Temperature in China under Different Interdecadal Scale

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41275073), National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1506006), National Basic Research Program of China (Grant 2015CB453203)
  • 摘要: 利用1951~2020年中国观测站气温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和统计方法,分析了不同年代际时间尺度背景下我国冬季气温的季节内变化特征及相联系的大气环流异常。结果表明,1986年前、后为两个年代际时间尺度阶段,各阶段内前冬(12月)与后冬(1~2月)气温异常反位相年的比例均高于同位相年。1986年之前,季节内的优势空间模态为前冬全国冷(暖)转为后冬南方暖(冷)的可能性大,即南方地区季节内变率大;而1986年之后的优势空间模态为前冬北方冷(暖)转为后冬全国明显暖(冷)的可能性大,即北方地区季节内变率大。冬季气温的季节内变化显著受到冬季风系统关键环流季节内变化的影响。对应优势模态的正异常年份,1986年之前,欧亚中高纬地区对流层环流异常信号从前冬到后冬显著性减弱,其中西北太平洋地区对流层中高层的环流调整更明显,副热带高度场增强,热带东风急流北扩,前冬到后冬的环流调整有利于前冬全国大范围偏冷而后冬我国南方地区气温升高,造成南方地区季节内反位相变率增大。1986年之后,欧亚高中低纬地区的环流异常从前冬到后冬显著性增强,欧亚中高纬度环流发生较大调整,而低纬度的环流变化不大,北方地区前冬冷到后冬全国明显转暖,造成北方地区季节内反位相变率大。即副热带环流和中高纬度环流分别在两个年代际尺度阶段南方和北方的冬季气温季节内变率中起到主导作用。
  • 图  1  1951~2019年冬季(a)12月与1月、(b)1月与2月气温(去趋势后)相关系数空间分布。深、浅阴影分别表示通过99%和95%的置信水平

    Figure  1.  Spatial distributions of the correlation coefficients between (a) December and January, (b) January and February with detrended air surface temperature in winter over China from 1951 to 2019. Dark and light shadings indicate the 99% and 95% confidence levels, respectively

    图  2  1951~2019年冬季不同月份间中国160站平均气温21 a滑动相关。黑色虚线:12月与1月;绿色实线:12月与2月;红色实线:1月与2月;蓝色实线:前冬与后冬;灰色点线:95%的置信水平临界线

    Figure  2.  Sliding correlations of surface air temperature averaged in 160 stations over China between different months from December to February with a 21-year moving window for 1951–2019. The black dashed line: between December and January; green solid line: between December and February; red solid line: between January and February; blue solid line: between early winter (EW) and late winter (LW); the gray straight dotted lines represent 95% confidence levels

    图  3  1951~2019年中国前冬与后冬气温21 a滑动相关空间分布。滑动窗口时间分别为(a)1970、(b)1980、(c)1990、(d)2000。深、浅阴影分别表示通过99%和95%的置信水平

    Figure  3.  Spatial distributions of sliding correlation coefficients between early and late winter temperature over China with a 21-year moving window. The years of moving window are (a) 1970, (b) 1980, (c) 1990, (d) 2000, respectively. Dark and light shadings indicate the 99% and 95% confidence levels, respectively

    图  4  1951~2019年中国(a)前冬、(b)后冬气温Mann-Kendall检验曲线,点线为95%的置信水平临界线

    Figure  4.  Statistical curves of the Mann-Kendall method test of temperature for (a) early and (b) late winter over China for 1951–2019. The dotted lines are the critical value of 95% confidence level

    图  5  中国前、后冬气温在1986年(a、b)之前(1951~1985年)和(c、d)之后(1986~2019年)阶段的(a、c)12月与1月、(b、d)1月与2月相关系数空间分布。深、浅阴影分别表示通过99%和95%的置信水平

    Figure  5.  Spatial distributions of correlation coefficients for temperature between (a, c) December and January, (b, d) January and February over China before 1986 (1951–1985) and after 1986 (1986–2019). Dark and light shadings indicate 99% and 95% confidence levels, respectively

    图  6  P1阶段(1951~1984年)中国(a、c)前冬、(b、d)后冬气温距平S-EOF分解(a、b)第一、(c、d)第二模态标准化时间序列回归到气温场的空间分布及S-EOF1(e)标准化时间系数(SPC1)和(f)小波功率谱。图a–d中,实、虚等值线表示正、负值;深、浅阴影分别表示通过99%和95%的置信水平。图f中,黑线表示小波变换的影响锥曲线,红色实线表示通过95%的置信水平,红色虚线为95%置信水平的红噪声检验,蓝色实线表示小波全谱

    Figure  6.  Spatial distributions of (a, b) the first and (c, d) second S-EOF mode regression on surface air temperature for (a, c) early and (b, d) late winter, (e) normalized principal component (SPC1) and (f) wave power spectrum of the first S-EOF mode over China during P1 period (1951–1984). In Figs. a–d, solid (dashed) contours represent positive (negative) values; dark and light shadings indicate the 99% and 95% confidence levels, respectively. In Fig. f, the black thick lines are the influence cone curve of wavelet transform; the red solid line represents 95% confidence level; the red dashed line represents 95% confidence level of the red noise test; the blue solid line is global wavelet power spectrum

    图  7  P1阶段(1951~1984年)中国前冬S-EOF优势模态典型正、负异常年的合成差值场:(a)海平面气压场(间隔:2 hPa);(b)500 hPa位势高度场(间隔:20 gpm);(c)200 hPa纬向风场(间隔:2 m/s)。深、浅阴影分别表示通过99%和95%的置信水平。图c中,红色轮廓线表示200 hPa纬向风30 m/s的气候平均值。(d−f)同(a−c),但为后冬的合成差值场

    Figure  7.  Composite differences between the typical positive and negative anomaly years of S-EOF dominant mode in EW (early winter) over China during P1 period (1951–1984): (a) Sea level pressure (contours interval: 2 hPa); (b) 500-hPa geopotential height (contours interval: 20 gpm); (c) 200-hPa zonal wind (contours interval: 2 m/s). Dark and light shadings indicate 99% and 95% confidence levels, respectively. In Fig. c, the red contour denotes the climatic mean of the 200-hPa zonal wind with the value of 30 m/s. (d−f) As in (a−c), but for the composite differences in LW (late winter)

    图  8  图6,但为P2阶段(1996~2019年)的空间分布

    Figure  8.  As in Fig. 6, but for spatial distributions during P2 period (1996–2019)

    图  9  图7,但为P2时段的合成差值场

    Figure  9.  As in Fig.7, but for composite differences during P2 period (1996–2019)

    表  1  1951~2019年冬季不同月份间全国160站平均气温的相关系数

    Table  1.   Correlation coefficients of surface air temperature averaged in 160 stations over China between different months from December to February for 1951–2019

    不同月份间气温的相关系数
    (去趋势前)
    不同月份间气温的相关系数
    (去趋势后)
    12月1月2月12月1月2月
    12月11
    1月0.210.051
    2月0.20.49*10.040.34*1
    注:*表示通过99%的置信水平。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  1986年之前(1951~1985年)和之后(1986~2019年)冬季不同月份间全国160站平均气温的相关系数

    Table  2.   Correlation coefficients of surface air temperature averaged in 160 stations over China between different months in winter before 1986 (1951–1985) and after 1986 (1986–2019)

    不同月份间气温的相关系数
    1951~1985年 1986~2019年
    12月1月2月 12月1月2月
    去趋势前12月11
    1月0.031−0.071
    2月−0.050.2410.020.39*1
    去趋势后12月11
    1月0.0510.021
    2月−0.010.2610.10.41*1
    注:*表示通过95%的置信水平。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  1986年前(1951~1984年)、后(1996~2019年)中国160站平均的前冬、后冬气温显著异常年数统计

    Table  3.   Statistics of the number of years for significantly abnormal temperature based on 160 stations over China in early and late winter before 1986 (1951–1984)/after 1986 (1996~2019)

    前冬后冬个数统计所占比例
    1986年前
    (1951~1984年)
    $ \Delta T $≥0.33$ \sigma $$ \Delta T $≥0.33$ \sigma $25.9%
    $ \Delta T $≤−0.33$ \sigma $$ \Delta T $≤−0.33$ \sigma $411.8%
    $ \Delta T $≥0.33$ \sigma $$ \Delta T $≤−0.33$ \sigma $514.7%
    $ \Delta T $≤−0.33$ \sigma $$ \Delta T $≥0.33$ \sigma $38.9%
    1986年后
    (1996~2019年)
    $ \Delta T $≥0.33$ \sigma $$ \Delta T $≥0.33$ \sigma $416.7%
    $ \Delta T $≤−0.33$ \sigma $$ \Delta T $≤−0.33$ \sigma $28.3%
    $ \Delta T $≥0.33$ \sigma $$ \Delta T $≤−0.33$ \sigma $416.7%
    $ \Delta T $≤−0.33$ \sigma $$ \Delta T $≥0.33$ \sigma $312.5%
    注:$ \Delta T $、$ \sigma $分别表示气温距平、标准差。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  P1阶段(1951~1984年)和P2阶段(1996~2019年)中国前冬、后冬气温S-EOF第一模态标准化时间序列典型正、负异常年份 Table 4 Typical positive and negative anomaly years for surface air temperature as identified in terms of the first S-EOF (season-reliant empirical orthogonal function) mode between early and late winter over China during P1 (1951–1984) and P2 (1996–2019)

    典型正异常年典型负异常年
    P1阶段(1951~1984年)1952、1954、1956、1960、1965、1966、1967、1974、1975、19841951、1955、1958、1962、1977、1978、1979
    P2阶段(1996~2019年)2001、2003、2006、2008、2014、20191999、2000、2004、2010、2011、2017
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-02-04
  • 录用日期:  2021-11-30
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