中国东部降水中大尺度环流和局地陆—气相互作用的贡献：河南“21·7”强降水事件特征影响因子探究

陈玥; 王爱慧; 支蓉; 封国林

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2208.21239

中国东部降水中大尺度环流和局地陆—气相互作用的贡献：河南“21·7”强降水事件特征影响因子探究

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2208.21239

陈玥^1,,
王爱慧^2, ,,
支蓉³,
封国林³

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州730000
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心, 北京100029
3.
国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室, 北京100081

基金项目: 国家杰出青年科学基金项目41925021，国家自然科学基金项目41875106、41975088

详细信息

作者简介:
陈玥，女，1996年出生，博士研究生，主要从事陆—气相互作用研究。E-mail: cheny17@lzu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
王爱慧，E-mail: wangaihui@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P458
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- 文章访问数: 139
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-12-11
- 录用日期: 2022-10-11
- 网络出版日期: 2022-08-25

Contributions of Large-Scale Circulation and Local Land–Atmosphere Interaction to Precipitation in Eastern China: Investigation on Influencing Factors of the July 2021 Heavy Precipitation Event in Henan Province

Yue CHEN^1
,,
Aihui WANG^{2
, ,},
Rong ZHI³,
Guolin FENG³

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000
2.
Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
3.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081

Funds: National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (Grant 41925021), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41875106, 41975088)

摘要

摘要: 2021年7月河南省遭遇突破历史极值的极端强降雨，造成极大人员伤亡和经济损失，同时此次事件暴露出对中国东部汛期降水预测存在一定不足，提示我们需要加强汛期降水和传统影响因子不匹配的机理研究。本文首先利用再分析ERA5月资料识别了与2021年7月有相似环流背景的中国东部夏季降水事件；进一步利用基于相似环流型的动力调整方法，对1979～2021年7月中国东部降水距平开展了大尺度环流动力影响和局地陆面作用分离；最后，量化研究了上述两个作用对此次极端降水事件的贡献。得到如下主要结论：2011年是2021年7月的500 hPa环流相似年，然而相应降水场在华北到长江中下游地区呈现显著差异。利用动力调整方法从降水距平中分离出大气环流的影响，相关分析表明余项反映局地陆—气反馈作用。降水余项是引起2021年7月江淮到长江下游地区的异常强降水的主要原因。归因分析表明，余项主要是由局地热力因子变化引起的，其中，蒸发加强，感热通量显著降低，增加了大气强对流不稳定能量，并通过影响大气相对湿度和边界层高度，使得降水增加。推广到1979～2021年7月降水的演变过程发现，中国东部降水余项的年际变率很强，极端降水异常主要体现在余项中，而环流分量相对稳定，结果强调了局地热力作用对夏季极端降水的重要影响。本研究表明，中国东部夏季降水的预测需要同时考虑大尺度大气环流特征和局地热力作用的贡献，后者对于极端降水预测的贡献尤为重要。
- 强降水 /
- 河南 /
- 动力调整方法 /
- 大尺度环流 /
- 局地热力作用
Abstract: A record-breaking precipitation event happened in Henan Province in July 2021, which caused great casualties and economic losses. During the flood season in eastern China, this event exposed some deficiencies in precipitation prediction. The ERA5 reanalysis product and a dynamic adjustment (DA) approach were applied in this study to explore the contributions of large-scale circulation and local land–atmosphere interaction in this extreme precipitation event. The 500-hPa geopotential height constructed circulation analogs were used in DA to separate the effects of large-scale circulation dynamics and local land surface effects on precipitation anomalies in eastern China from 1979 to 2021. Finally, the contribution of these two effects to the extreme precipitation event is quantified. The following are the main conclusions: The year 2011 had a 500-hPa circulation similar to July 2021, while the corresponding precipitation fields showed significant differences from North China to the Yangtze River’s middle and lower reaches. After DA, the influence of atmospheric circulation is separated from precipitation anomalies. The correlation analysis shows that the residual component of precipitation anomaly reflects local land–atmosphere feedback. The residual is the main cause of the anomalous heavy precipitation from the Jianghuai region to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in July 2021. Attribution analysis shows that the residual component is mainly caused by the change in local thermal factors: enhanced evaporation reduces sensible heat flux and increases precipitation by affecting atmospheric relative humidity and boundary layer height. Among them, evaporation is strengthened, sensible heat flux is significantly reduced, the unstable energy of strong atmospheric convection is increased, and precipitation is increased by influencing atmospheric relative humidity and boundary layer height. When the precipitation evolution process is extended from 1979 to 2021 in July, it is found that the interannual variability of the residual precipitation component is very strong, the extreme precipitation anomaly is mainly reflected in the residual component, and the circulation component is relatively stable. The results emphasize the important influence of the local thermal effect on extreme summer precipitation. This study shows that taking into consideration both the characteristics of large-scale atmospheric circulation and the contribution of local thermal effects is necessary to improve the prediction of summer precipitation in eastern China, and the latter is particularly important to the prediction of extreme summer precipitation.
- Heavy precipitation /
- Henan /
- Dynamic adjustment approach /
- Large-scale circulation /
- Local thermal effects

HTML全文

图 1 1979～2021年7月（a）中国东部、（b）河南省的ERA5再分析资料（黑色实线）和CN05.1观测降水（绿色实线）的纬度加权区域平均距平序列，带圆点的绿色虚线表示用《中国统计年鉴》中主要城市7月总降水得到的距平估计值。（c）1979～2020年7月中国东部500 hPa位势高度距平（蓝色实线, r-Z500）、降水距平（橙色实线, r-Pr）与2021年7月相应要素的空间相关系数，灰色圆点表示空间相关系数未通过显著性水平为0.05的统计检验

Figure 1. Latitudinal weighted regional mean anomaly series of precipitation (Pr, units: mm) in ERA5 reanalysis data (black solid line) and CN05.1 observation data (green solid line) in (a) eastern China and (b) Henan Province in July during 1979–2021, the dashed green line with dots represents the estimated anomaly values of total precipitation in major cities in July from the China Statistical Yearbook. (c) The spatial correlation coefficients of 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly (blue line, r-Z500) and the precipitation anomaly (orange line, r-Pr) in eastern China between July during 1979–2020 and July 2021, the gray dots indicate that the spatial correlation coefficients did not pass the statistical test at the significance level of 0.05

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图 2 基于相似环流型的动力调整方法过程示意图

Figure 2. Schematic of the dynamic adjustment approach based on constructed circulation analogs

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图 3 2011年7月（上）、2021年7月（下）中国东部（a、d）降水距平（填色，单位：mm d⁻¹）和500 hPa位势高度距平（等值线，单位：gpm），（b、e）降水距平环流分量（填色，单位mm d⁻¹）和500 hPa相似环流距平（等值线，单位：gpm），（c、f）降水距平余项（填色，单位mm d⁻¹）。黑色实（虚）线表示正（负）位势高度距平，绿色等值线表示500 hPa位势高度为5880 gpm

Figure 3. (a, c) Precipitation anomaly (shadings, units: mm d⁻¹) and 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contours, units: gpm), (b, e) precipitation anomaly circulation component (shadings, units: mm d⁻¹) and constructed circulation analog of 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contours, units: gpm), (c, f) precipitation anomaly residual (shadings, units: mm d⁻¹) over eastern China in July 2011 (top panels) and July 2021 (bottom panels). The black solid (dashed) line represents the positive (negative) geopotential height anomaly, and the green contour indicates that the 500 hPa geopotential height is 5880 gpm

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图 4 2021年7月、2011年7月中国东部陆面和近地面对流因子相对于1979～2021年7月气候态的距平百分率。8个因子分别为表层（0～7 cm）土壤湿度（SSM）、潜热通量（F_LH）、感热通量（F_SH）、净长波辐射（LWnet）、净短波辐射（SWnet）、边界层高度（PBLH）、对流有效位能（CAPE）和K指数（K index）

Figure 4. Anomaly percentages of land surface and near-surface convection factors in eastern China in July 2021 and July 2011 relative to the July climate state from 1979 to 2021. The eight factors are surface (0–7 cm) soil moisture (SSM), latent heat flux (F_LH), sensible heat flux (F_SH), net longwave radiation (LWnet), net shortwave radiation (SWnet), planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), convection available potential energy (CAPE), and K index, respectively

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图 5 1979～2021年7月中国东部降水距平（左列）及其环流分量（中列）和余项（右列）与1979～2021年（a–c）6月、（d–f）7月和（g–i）8月土壤湿度距平的相关系数，填色区域均通过了显著性水平为0.05的统计检验

Figure 5. Correlation coefficients between precipitation anomaly (left), its circulation components (middle), the residual (right) in eastern China in July from 1979 to 2021 and soil moisture anomaly in (a–c) June, (d–f) July, (g–i) August during 1979–2021. The shadings denote correlation coefficients passing the statistical test with a 0.05 significance level

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图 6 2021年7月中国东部（a）大尺度降水距平、（d）对流降水距平及其（b、e）环流分量、（c、f）余项

Figure 6. (a) Large-scale precipitation anomalies and (d) convective precipitation anomalies and their (b, e) circulation components, (c, f) residual components in eastern China in July 2021

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图 7 1979～2021年7月中国东部的（a）降水距平（Pr）及其环流分量（Pr-Circ）和余项（Pr-Res）的箱线图，（b）降水距平按百分位数分段对应的动力调整分量贡献率均值。箱线图中的加号表示离群值

Figure 7. (a) Boxplot of precipitation anomaly (Pr), circulation components (Pr-Circ), and residuals (Pr-Res), (b) precipitation anomaly segmented by percentiles, with the corresponding mean contribution rate of dynamic adjustment components in eastern China in July from 1979 to 2021. The plus sign in the boxplot represents outliers

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图 8 2021年7月河南省（a）降水距平（填色，单位：mm d⁻¹）、500 hPa位势高度距平（等值线，单位：gpm），（b）降水距平环流分量（填色，单位：mm d⁻¹）、500 hPa位势高度相似环流距平（等值线，单位：gpm），（c）降水距平余项（填色，单位：mm d⁻¹）

Figure 8. (a) Precipitation anomaly (shadings, units: mm d⁻¹) and 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contours, units: gpm), (b) precipitation anomaly circulation component (shadings, units: mm d⁻¹) and anomaly of constructed circulation analog of 500-hPa geopotential height (contours, units: gpm), (c) precipitation anomaly residual (shadings, units: mm d⁻¹) in Henan Province in July 2021

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图 9 2021年7月和2011年7月河南省陆面和近地面对流因子相对于1979～2021年7月气候态的距平百分率

Figure 9. Anomaly percentage of land surface and near-surface convection factors in July 2021 and July 2011 in Henan Province relative to the July climate state from 1979 to 2021

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图 10 1979～2021年7月河南省（a）降水距平及其（b）环流分量、（c）余项的年际变率（单位：mm d⁻¹）分布，（d）降水距平及其环流分量和余项的箱线图

Figure 10. Interannual variability distribution for (a) precipitation anomaly (units: mm d⁻¹), its (b) circulation component (units: mm d⁻¹) and (c) the residual (units: mm d⁻¹), (d) boxplot of precipitation anomaly, its circulation component, and residual in Henan Province in July from 1979 to 2021

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