欧洲地区不同温室气体背景下土地利用/覆盖变化的气候效应

胡祖恒; 徐忠峰; 马柱国

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17010

欧洲地区不同温室气体背景下土地利用/覆盖变化的气候效应

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17010

胡祖恒^{1, 2,},
徐忠峰¹,
马柱国^1, ,

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室, 北京 100029
2.
中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

基金项目:

国家科技攻关计划项目 2016YFA0600403

国家自然科学基金项目 41675080

国家自然科学基金项目 91637103

详细信息

作者简介:
胡祖恒, 男, 1989年出生, 博士研究生, 主要从事气候变化与气候模拟研究。E-mail: huzh@tea.ac.cn

通讯作者:
马柱国, E-mail: mazg@tea.ac.cn

中图分类号: P461.8
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- 文章访问数: 1209
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-01-10
- 网络出版日期: 2017-06-16
- 刊出日期: 2018-03-20

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes under Different Greenhouse Gas Concentrations on Climate in Europe

Zuheng HU^{1, 2
,},
Zhongfeng XU¹,
Zhuguo MA^{1
, ,}

1.
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Funds:

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2016YFA0600403

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41675080

National Natural Science Foundation of China 91637103

摘要

摘要: 通过温室气体排放和土地利用/覆盖变化，人类活动对气候变化产生显著影响。为了探究在不同温室气体浓度（Greenhouse gas concentration，GHG）背景下，相同的土地利用/覆盖变化（Land Use and Land Cover Change，LULCC）对于欧洲区域气候的影响差异，采用CESM（Community Earth System Model）耦合模式进行了模拟研究。研究发现，在1850年温室气体浓度背景下，土地利用/覆盖变化导致欧洲中东部地区降水显著增加，而在2000年温室气体浓度背景下，土地利用/覆盖变化导致欧洲中东部地区降水减少。温室气体增加后，LULCC导致该地区对流层低层大气环流由辐合变为辐散，气温以及大气水汽含量降低，这些变化能较大程度的改变LULCC对区域降水的净影响力。
- 温室气体浓度变化 /
- 土地利用/覆盖变化 /
- 区域气候效应
Abstract: Human activities have modified the Earth's climate through emissions of greenhouse gases and land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC). To investigate the impacts of LULCC under different greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG) on regional climate, several numerical experiments are performed using the fully coupled community earth system model (CESM). Results are as follows. Under the concentrations of greenhouse gases around 1850, the LULCC lead to increases in precipitation in central and eastern Europe, while under concentrations of greenhouse gases around 2000, the LULCC lead to decreases in precipitation in central and eastern Europe. Under the increased GHG concentration, LULCC lead to changes in the atmospheric circulation from convergence to divergence and decrease the air temperature and moisture content. These changes play a dominant role in determining the net impact of LULCC on regional precipitation.
- Increased greenhouse gas concentration /
- Land use and land cover changes /
- Regional climate

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图 1 欧洲地区5~9月平均(a)潜在植被和(b)当前植被状况的叶面积指数以及(c)相对于潜在植被状况变为当前植被状况后的叶面积指数

Figure 1. Changes in the May-September mean leaf area index of (a) potential vegetation and (b) current vegetation, and (c) between experiments with potential and current vegetation

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图 2 在(a)2000年温室气体浓度水平和(b)1850年温室气体浓度水平下土地利用/覆盖变化对暖季(5~9月)降水的影响，以及(c)两者的差异：(a)C2-P2试验；(b)C1-P1试验；(c)C2–P2试验减去C1–P1试验。图中画斜线区域表示变化达到0.05显著性水平

Figure 2. Under greenhouse gas concentration levels of (a) 2000 and (b) 1850 the LULCC-induced changes in precipitation (LULCC, Land Use and Land Cover Change) and (c) their differences in warm season (May-September): (a) Experiment C2–P2 (scheme C2 minus scheme P2); (b) experiment C1–P1 (scheme C1 minus scheme P1); (c) experiment C2–P2 minus experiment C1–P1. The regions with slashes are areas where the changes are significant at 0.05 level

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图 3 在(a)2000年温室气体浓度水平和(b)1850年温室气体浓度水平下土地利用/覆盖变化对暖季(5~9月)850 hPa风场的影响，以及(c)两者的差异：(a)C2–P2试验；(b)C1–P1试验；(c)C2–P2试验减去C1–P1试验

Figure 3. Under greenhouse gas concentration levels of (a) 2000 and (b) 1850 the LULCC-induced changes in 850-hPa wind field and (c) their differences in warm season (May-September): (a) Experiment C2–P2; (b) experiment C1–P1; (c) experiment C2–P2 minus experiment C1–P1

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图 4 在(a)2000年温室气体浓度水平和(b)1850年温室气体浓度水平下土地利用/覆盖变化对暖季(5~9月) 850 hPa比湿的影响，以及(c)两者的差异：(a)C2–P2试验；(b)C1–P1试验；(c)C2–P2试验减去C1–P1试验。图中画斜线区域表示变化达到0.05显著性水平

Figure 4. Under greenhouse gas concentration levels of (a) 2000 and (b) 1850 the LULCC-induced changes in specific humidity and (c) their differences in warm season (May-September): (a) Experiment C2–P2; (b) experiment C1–P1; (c) experiment C2–P2 minus experiment C1–P1. The regions with slashes are areas where the changes are significant at 0.05 level

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图 5 在(a)2000年温室气体浓度水平和(b)1850年温室气体浓度水平下土地利用/覆盖变化对暖季(5~9月)850 hPa气温的影响，以及(c)两者的差异：(a)C2-P2试验；(b)C1-P1试验；(c)C2-P2试验减去C1-P1试验。图中画斜线区域表示变化达到0.05显著性水平

Figure 5. Under greenhouse gas concentration levels of (a) 2000 and (b) 1850 the LULCC-induced changes in 850-hPa air temperature and (c) their differences in warm season (May-September): (a) Experiment C2–P2; (b) experiment C1–P1; (c) experiment C2–P2 minus experiment C1–P1. The regions with slashes are areas where the changes are significant at 0.05 level

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图 6 25°E~50°E区域平均暖季(5~9月)土地利用/覆盖变化对风场和气温影响的经向垂直剖面：(a)2000年温室气体浓度水平C2–P2试验、(b)1850年温室气体浓度水平C1–P1试验以及(c)两者的差异(C2–P2试验减去C1–P1试验)。阴影代表气温的变化，斜线表示气温变化达到0.05显著性水平

Figure 6. Longitudinal cross sections of wind field and air temperature averaged over 25°E-50°E under greenhouse gas concentration levels of (a) 2000 and (b) 1850 the LULCC-induced changes and (c) their differences in warm season (May-September): (a) Experiment C2–P2; (b) experiment C1–P1; (c) experiment C2–P2 minus experiment C1–P1. The shaded indicates changes in air temperature, the regions with slashes are areas where the changes in temperature are significant at 0.05 level

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图 7 25°E~50°E区域平均暖季(5~9月)土地利用/覆盖变化对比湿影响的经向垂直剖面：(a)2000年温室气体浓度水平C2–P2试验、(b)1850年温室气体浓度水平C1–P1试验以及(c)两者的差异(C2–P2试验减去C1–P1试验)。阴影代表比湿的变化，斜线表示比湿变化达到0.05显著性水平

Figure 7. Longitudinal cross sections of specific humidity averaged over 25°E-50°E under greenhouse gas concentration levels of (a) 2000 and (b) 1850 the LULCC-induced changes and (c) their differences in warm season (May-September): (a) Experiment C2–P2; (b) experiment C1–P1; (c) experiment C2–P2 minus experiment C1–P1. The shaded indicates the changes in specific humidity, the regions with slashes are areas where the changes in specific humidity are significant at 0.05 level

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表 1 试验设计介绍

Table 1. Description of experiments

试验方案	试验描述	温室气体设置	土地利用/覆盖设置
P1	1850年温室气体浓度，无土地利用/覆盖变化	1850年浓度水平	潜在植被覆盖
P2	仅考虑温室气体浓度的变化	2000年浓度水平	潜在植被覆盖
C1	仅考虑土地利用/覆盖变化	1850年浓度水平	当前植被覆盖
C2	同时考虑温室气体和土地利用/覆盖变化	2000年浓度水平	当前植被覆盖

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表 2 CLM陆面模式中当前植被覆盖相对于潜在植被覆盖的植被功能类型在欧洲地区(0°~50°E，38°N~60°N)的百分比变化

Table 2. Fractional changes of CLM (Community Land Model) plant functional types between current and potential vegetation maps over Europe (0°–50°E, 38°N–60°N)

植被功能类型	百分比变化
裸土	-0.82%
温带常绿针叶林	-11.23%
寒带常绿针叶林	-1.58%
寒带落叶针叶林	0
热带常绿阔叶林	0
温带常绿阔叶林	-0.05%
热带落叶阔叶林	0
温带落叶阔叶林	-15.59%
温带落叶阔叶林	-1.17%
温带常绿灌木	-0.38%
温带落叶灌木	-1.95%
寒带落叶灌木	-0.11%
C3极地草	+0.08%
C3草	+2.41%
C4草	+0.14%
农田	+28.48%

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