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2018年和2008年1~2月影响我国的持续低温事件及其对比分析

秦明月 李双林

秦明月, 李双林. 2020. 2018年和2008年1~2月影响我国的持续低温事件及其对比分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 25(6): 601−615 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.19154
引用本文: 秦明月, 李双林. 2020. 2018年和2008年1~2月影响我国的持续低温事件及其对比分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 25(6): 601−615 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.19154
QIN Mingyue, LI Shuanglin. 2020. Comparison of Persistent Cold Events in China during January–February of 2018 and 2008 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 25 (6): 601−615 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.19154
Citation: QIN Mingyue, LI Shuanglin. 2020. Comparison of Persistent Cold Events in China during January–February of 2018 and 2008 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 25 (6): 601−615 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.19154

2018年和2008年1~2月影响我国的持续低温事件及其对比分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.19154
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金重大项目41790473
详细信息
    作者简介:

    秦明月,女,1990年出生,博士研究生,主要从事热带外海气相互作用研究。E-mail: qinmingyue@mail.iap.ac.cn

    通讯作者:

    李双林,E-mail: shuanglin.li@mail.iap.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P461

Comparison of Persistent Cold Events in China during January–February of 2018 and 2008

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41790473)
  • 摘要: 2018年1月中下旬至2月初我国发生了一次大范围的持续低温异常事件,给国民经济和人们生活带来了很大的不利影响。这次持续低温事件与众所周知的2008年1月发生在我国南方的持续雨雪冰冻事件(简称“0801”事件)有一个共同点,二者都是发生在La Niña和前秋北极海冰显著减少的背景之下。对比这两次事件发生的大气环流和热力背景,对认识冬季持续极寒事件的形成有重要意义。本文利用NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料和NOAA卫星观测OLR资料,对这两次过程进行了比较。结果显示,与“0801”事件相比,2018年1月中下旬的低温事件表现出以下明显不同的特征:(1)过程持续短,冷空气路径偏东;(2)乌拉尔阻塞和东亚大槽并存,呈“西高东低”型,不同于“0801”高纬阻塞和低纬南支槽并存的“北高南低”型;(3)异常的环流型与自大西洋经乌拉尔山至东亚传播的波列有关,西伯利亚高压持续时间短;(4)热带对流活跃在海洋性大陆和西太平洋,不同于“0801”主要在印度洋。后者对该年南支槽和西太平洋副热带高压增强有显著贡献。最后,2018年过程期间水汽输送也不如“0801”强,导致降水弱。
  • 图  1  (a、c)2018年和(b、d)2008年持续冷事件发生的冬季(前一年12月至当年2月)平均海表温度异常(SSTA)及前秋(前一年9~11月)平均海冰异常的对比:(a、b)SSTA(单位:°C);(c、d)海冰密集度异常

    Figure  1.  December-February sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) in (a) 2017/2018 and (b) 2007/2008 winter; September–November sea ice concentration anomalies in (c) 2017 and (d) 2007

    图  2  (a)全国601个观测站点分布;(b)2017/2018年(实线)和2007/2008年(虚线)冬季全国平均逐日气温演变,点线为1981~2010年气候态;(c)同(b),但对2017/2018及2007/2008年冬季全国平均逐日气温进行了7 d滑动平均以去除天气尺度分量,并对气候态取了前4个谐波之和,阴影为1979~2018年共39个冬季正负0.8个标准差所涵盖的范围

    Figure  2.  (a) Distribution of 601 observation stations over China (black dots); evolution of the daily mean temperature index during (b) 2017/2018 winter (solid line), 2007/2008 winter (dashed line), and climatological daily temperatures for 1981–2010 (dotted line); (c) evolution of the daily mean temperature index with temperature smoothed as a seven-day running mean for 2017/2018 (solid line) and 2007/2008 (dashed line) winter, and climatology (dotted line) is derived from the first four harmonics by fast Fourier transform, the shading denoted the scope of 0.8 and −0.8 standard deviation of daily temperature in the 1979–2018 period

    图  3  (a、b)2018年1月23日至2月13日、(c、d)2008年1月13日至2月20日持续低温期间(a、c)地面日平均气温距平(单位:°C)和(b、d)日降水量距平(单位:mm)

    Figure  3.  (a, c) Mean of daily surface air temperature anomalies (°C) and (b, d) daily precipitation anomalies (mm) averaged (a, b) from 23 January to 13 February 2018 and (b, d) from 13 January to 20 February 2008

    图  4  2018年1月23日至2月13日(左列)、2008年1月13日至2月20日(右列)持续低温期间(a、b)200 hPa纬向风(等值线,单位:m/s;绿色等值线对应同期1981~2010年气候平均)及其异常(阴影,单位:m/s)、(c、d)500 hPa位势高度场距平(阴影,单位:gpm)和波作用通量(矢量,单位:m2/s2)、(e、f)海平面气压距平(等值线,单位:hPa)和850 hPa温度场距平(阴影,单位:°C)

    Figure  4.  (a, b) Zonal wind (contour, units: m/s; the green contours denotes the 1981−2010 climatological mean) and its anomalies (shaded, units: m/s) at 200 hPa, (c, d) geopotential height anomalies (shaded, units: gpm) and the horizontal wave flux (vector, units: m2/s2) at 500 hPa, and (e, f) sea level pressure anomalies (contour, units: hPa) and air temperature anomalies (shaded, units: °C) averaged from 23 January to 13 February 2018 (left column) and from 13 January to 20 February 2008 (right column)

    图  5  (a–f)2018年、(g–l)2008年持续低温发生前第12日至发生后第3日每隔3日500 hPa位势高度场距平(填色,单位:gpm)和波作用通量的演变(矢量,单位:m2/s2)。2018年1月23日低温开始日为第0日,2008年1月13日低温开始日为第0日

    Figure  5.  Geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa (shaded, units: gpm) and horizontal wave flux (vector, units: m2/s2) during –12th to +3rd day, relative to the cold event occurrence on (a−f) 23 January 2018 (day 0) and (g−l) 13 January 2008 (day 0)

    图  6  图5,但为海平面气压(等值线,单位:hPa,等值线每隔5 hPa)和850 hPa温度场(填色,单位:°C)

    Figure  6.  Same as Fig. 5, but for sea level pressure anomalies (contour, units: hPa, intervals: 5 hPa) and 850-hPa temperature anomalies (shaded, units: °C)

    图  7  (a)2018年和(d)2008年1~2月西伯利亚高压指数的逐日演变(虚线为1980~2010年气候平均,灰色阴影表示偏强的时间段);(b、c)2018年和(e、f)2008年1~2月105°E~120°E平均的850 hPa(b、e)经向风距平(c、f)温度距平的纬度—时间剖面

    Figure  7.  (a) Daily evolution of the Siberian High (SH) index during January and February in (a) 2018 and (d) 2008 (the dashed line shows the climatology for SH, and the gray shading indicates values above the climatology of 1980−2010). The latitude–time cross section of (b, e) meridional wind anomalies and (c, f) temperature anomalies at 850 hPa averaged between 105°E and 120°E during January and February in (b, c) 2018 and (e, f) 2008

    图  8  (a)2018年和(c)2008年1~2月我国南方地区(20°N~30°N,105°E~120°E)平均降水量距平逐日演变;(b)2018年和(d)2008年1~2月105°E~120°E平均的850 hPa风场(矢量,单位:m/s)及其辐合区(阴影,单位:10−6 s−1)的纬度—时间剖面

    Figure  8.  Time series of the daily rainfall anomalies averaged over South China (20°N–30°N, 105°E–120°E) during January and February in (a) 2018 and (c) 2008. The latitude–time cross section of wind anomalies (vector, units: m/s) and its convergence anomalies (shaded, units: 10−6 s-1) at 850 hPa averaged from 105°E to 120°E in (b) 2018 and (d) 2008

    图  9  (a、b)2018年1月24~28日降水期平均和(c、d)2008年1月18日至20日以及1月25日至2月1日两次降水期平均的(a、c)1000~300 hPa垂直积分的水汽通量异常(矢量,单位:kg m−1 s−1)及其异常辐合区(填色,单位:10−5 kg m−2 s−1)和(b、d)850 hPa风场异常(矢量,单位:m/s)。图中黑色地形线表示2500 m地形高度等值线

    Figure  9.  (a, c) Vertically averaged water vapor flux (surface to 300 hPa, vector, units: kg m−1 s−1) with its divergence (shaded, units: 10−5 kg m−2 s−1) and (b, d) wind anomalies (vector, units: m/s) at 850 hPa (a, b) averaged from 24 to 27 January 2018 and (c, d) averaged over two periods from 18 to 20 January 2008 and from 25 January to 1 February 2008. The topographic height contours of 2500 m are represented in black lines

    图  10  (a)2018年1月24~28日降水期平均和(b)2008年1月18日至20日以及1月25日至2月1日两次降水期平均的30~60 d低频向外长波辐射异常(阴影,单位:W/m2)以及低频850 hPa风场异常(矢量,单位:m/s)

    Figure  10.  (a) 30–60–day filtered anomalous outgoing long wave radiation (shaded, units: W/m2) and winds at 850 hPa (a) averaged from 24 to 27 January 2018 and (b) averaged over two periods from 18 to 20 January 2008 and from 25 January to 1 February 2008

    图  11  (a)2018年和(b)2008年持续低温事件的概念图。中国地区蓝色区域是温度距平小于−2°C的区域,橙色表示温度距平大于2°C的区域。标H的红色阴影是事件发生前12天斯堪的纳维亚半岛上空的正异常中心,“+”“−”中心和灰色箭头表示500 hPa从北大西洋至东亚地区的波列。标L的蓝色阴影是影响低温事件主要的负位势高度中心,黑色曲线代表阻塞高压。红色闭合曲线表示1030 hPa海平面气压等值线,红色箭头代表输送至我国的南风,绿色斜线阴影表示降水区域,海洋上空云系代表对流中心

    Figure  11.  The schematic diagram to illustrate the main features of the persistent cold event in (a) 2018 and (b) 2008 winter. The blue and orange shading indicates the region of temperature anomalies below −2°C and above 2°C in China respectively. The red shading marked with H indicates the positive geopotential height anomaly center over Scandinavia before the cold event. The gray contours and the bold-gray arrows indicate the wave train from Atlantic to East Asia. The black curve indicates the blocking pattern over the Ural mountain. The light blue shading marked with L indicates the negative anomaly center. The red curve indicates the contour of 1030-hPa sea level pressure. The thin red arrow indicates the south winds over South China, and the green shading indicates the precipitation region. The cloud structure indicates the tropical convection center

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2019-09-27
  • 网络出版日期:  2020-09-10
  • 刊出日期:  2020-11-25

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