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饶晨泓, 陈光华, 陈可鑫, 等. 2021. 最佳子集多元线性回归模型在热带气旋风圈变化预报中的应用[J]. 气候与环境研究, 26(1): 115−122. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.20055
引用本文: 饶晨泓, 陈光华, 陈可鑫, 等. 2021. 最佳子集多元线性回归模型在热带气旋风圈变化预报中的应用[J]. 气候与环境研究, 26(1): 115−122. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.20055
RAO Chenhong, CHEN Guanghua, CHEN Kexin, et al. 2021. Application of Best-Subsets Multiple Linear Regression Models in Forecasting the Gale-Force Wind Radii of Tropical Cyclones [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 26 (1): 115−122. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.20055
Citation: RAO Chenhong, CHEN Guanghua, CHEN Kexin, et al. 2021. Application of Best-Subsets Multiple Linear Regression Models in Forecasting the Gale-Force Wind Radii of Tropical Cyclones [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 26 (1): 115−122. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.20055

最佳子集多元线性回归模型在热带气旋风圈变化预报中的应用

Application of Best-Subsets Multiple Linear Regression Models in Forecasting the Gale-Force Wind Radii of Tropical Cyclones

  • 摘要: 基于最佳路径(IBTrACS)数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的再分析(ERA-Interim)数据,建立了西北太平洋上(Western North Pacific, WNP)热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone, TC)的七级风圈(R17)变化的最佳子集多元线性回归(bs-MLR)模型。首先根据2001~2014年6~11月TC初始半径(R17_0)的第1~25、26~50、51~75、76~100个百分位点将TC分为4类,建立针对各类TC的bs-MLR模型,再利用2015年6~11月的全部TC对模型的预报效果进行检验。结果表明:对TC生命周期中任意时刻的未来12小时R17(R17_12)进行预报时,当R17_0小于92.6 km及R17_0 在111.1~138.9 km范围内时,模型对于 R17_12的趋势预报和大小预报均具有较好的效果;对TC生命周期中任意时刻未来24小时R17(R17_24)进行预报时,当R17_0在111.1~138.9 km范围内时,模式对R17_24的趋势预报的效果较好。整体而言,bs-MLR模型对于R17_12的预报准确性高于对R17_24

     

    Abstract: Based on the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship dataset and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data, the best-subsets multiple linear regression (bs-MLR) models were established by forecasting the gale-force wind radii (R17) of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific region. First, TCs from June to November 2001–2014 were divided into four categories according to the 1−25, 26−50, 51−75, and 76−100 percentiles of the initial sizes (R17_0), and the bs-MLR models for TCs in each category were established. Then all TCs from June to November 2015 were used to test the estimated effectiveness of the bs-MLR models. The results showed that, when R17_0 was less than 92.6 km or R17_0 was between 111.1 km and 138.9 km, the models had better performances in forecasting the values and changing tendencies of R17 in the next 12 h (R17_12) for any moment of TC life cycle. When R17_0 was between 111.1 km and 138.9 km, the models had better performances in forecasting the values and changing tendencies of R17 in the next 24 h (R17_24) for any moment of TC life cycle. Overall, bs-MLR models had higher accuracy in forecasting R17_12 than R17_24.

     

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