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罗德杨, 郑飞, 陈权亮. 2022. 基于深度学习的全球平均表面温度年际信号时间序列的预测[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 94−104. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.20141
引用本文: 罗德杨, 郑飞, 陈权亮. 2022. 基于深度学习的全球平均表面温度年际信号时间序列的预测[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 94−104. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.20141
LUO Deyang, ZHENG Fei, CHEN Quanliang. 2022. Prediction of Inter-annual Signal of Global Mean Surface Temperature Based on Deep Learning Approach [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 94−104. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.20141
Citation: LUO Deyang, ZHENG Fei, CHEN Quanliang. 2022. Prediction of Inter-annual Signal of Global Mean Surface Temperature Based on Deep Learning Approach [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 94−104. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.20141

基于深度学习的全球平均表面温度年际信号时间序列的预测

Prediction of Inter-annual Signal of Global Mean Surface Temperature Based on Deep Learning Approach

  • 摘要: 利用集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, EEMD)有效地分解了全球平均表面温度(Global Mean Surface Temperature, GMST)时间序列,得到其不同尺度的、不同特征的子序列(Intrinsic Mode Function, IMF)。在此基础上,利用在预测长期、复杂、非线性变化的时间序列上具有显著优势的滑动自回归机器学习(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA)模型和长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)模型开展GMST年际信号预测研究。结果表明:深度学习模型LSTM能很好地拟合并预测了长程相关性强的子序列(第2~6个IMF),而代表GMST年际尺度变化的IMF1则在一定程度上受到太平洋大西洋多重气候信号的影响和调制,因此进一步将3个气候指数作为预报前兆因子加入预测模型来更准确地预测IMF1的时间演变。通过利用多套GMST数据的对比,最终选定了考虑实时ENSO信息的LSTM(ENSO)模型来提前预测年际GMST信号,并预测2020年将有较大概率会成为史上最热的年份之一。

     

    Abstract: Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) research and prediction is still an essential theoretical basis for climate change and disaster prevention. Because GMST series contains multi-scale variation characteristics that are highly complex and nonlinear, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) was adopted to effectively decompose the GMST time series to Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs), which obtains different scales and different characteristics. The machine learning model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the deep learning model Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) present substantial advantages in predicting long-term, complex, and nonlinear time series to carry out GMST inter-annual signal prediction research. The results reveal that the deep learning model fits and predicts the sub-sequences with strong long-term correlation (IMF2-6). IMF1, which represents the inter-annual scale change of GMST is affected by the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean multi-climate signal. Three climate indexes should be added as forecast precursor factors into the prediction model to predict IMF1 more accurately. This paper finally selected the LSTM(ENSO) model that considers real-time ENSO to predict the inter-annual GMST signal in advance by comparing multiple sets of GMST data and found that 2020 will have a greater probability of becoming one of the hottest years in history.

     

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