Analysis of the Change in the Precipitation Intensity Distribution in the Yangze-Huaihe River Basin under Global Warming

On the basis of the percentiles of different precipitation intensities, daily precipitation data from 80 stations taken during 1961-2006 are used to analyze the distribution characteristics of different precipitation intensities in the Yangze-Huaihe River basin under global warming. The results show that the proportion of heavy rain days in the total precipitation days in the Yangze-Huaihe River basin in the five warmest years according to global temperature is 30% more than that in the five coldest years. However, light rain reflects the opposite characteristics: The proportion in the warm years is nearly 60% less than in the cold years. The trends are the same in the proportions of heavy rain and light rain in the total precipitation amounts; the relative differences are about 13% and 80%, respectively. The distribution of precipitation intensities tends toward "the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer" under global warming. In addition, the difference in winter is greater than that in summer. The precipitation intensity distribution over the Yangze-Huaihe River basin tends to be polarized in the future under global warming.