Climate Projection over Yunnan Province and the Surrounding Regions Based on CMIP5 Data

Based on high-resolution CRU (Climatic Research Unit) data and observations at 124 stations in Yunnan Province, the performance of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5, CMIP5) from the IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report) in simulating the climatology over Yunnan Province and the surrounding regions was evaluated. The projected change in climate over these regions under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 2006-2055 was also studied. Results show that global coupled ocean-atmosphere models can simulate the spatial structure of temperature and precipitation climatology, the linear temperature rising trend, and the decadal oscillation characteristics of spring and summer precipitation. The multi-model ensemble (MME) shows better skill than the single model, and the temperature simulation results are better than the precipitation results. Spring and summer precipitation results are superior to those in other seasons, making the total annual mean precipitation simulation results better than those for autumn and winter. Future scenario projections indicate that the temperature over the study regions will show a significant linear rising trend. Precipitation will maintain its decadal oscillation characteristics, and increase over the next 50 years. A few regions, including Yunnan Province and its southern regions, will undergo a drought period before 2020.