Surface Air Temperature Change over China Based on the PRECIS_QUMP Ensemble Simulation

Using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) regional climate modeling system driven by five members of QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections) model ensembles developed by the Hadley Center/Met Office, this study analyzes the simulations of the surface air temperature and predicts the temperature during 2021-2050 under the IPCC SRES A1B emissions scenario over China. The result shows reasonable capabilities of PRECIS-downscaled QUMP members in simulating the baseline (1961-1990) climatology of surface temperature over China, though general overestimations of temperature values compared with observation were found over several regions. The projection shows increases in surface temperature simulated by all of the ensemble members, but differences of the warming tendency were also found among these members. The simulated annual mean daily minimum temperature showed the most significant warming compared with the annual mean daily mean temperature and the daily maximum temperature. Besides sensitivity test Q10, the warming simulated by each member corresponded with the climate sensitivity of the driven GCM. Overall, the most significant projected warming was shown over Northwest China with a range of 2.08-2.61℃, while the lowest range (1.33-1.84℃) was located over South China. However, differences of projected regional-scale warming were also shown among each member.