Present Distribution and Future Change of Anthropogenic Heat Fluxes in Jiangsu Province

The energy consumption and demographic data in Jiangsu Province have been exploited to estimate the anthropogenic heat emissions over Jiangsu Province. The spatial and temporal variations of anthropogenic heat emissions and their possible changes in the future are analyzed. Results show that the annual average anthropogenic heat flux in Jiangsu Province has been continuously increasing since 1990. The mean value averaged over Jiangsu Province increases from 0.59 W/m² in 1990 to 2.85 W/m² in 2013. The spatial distribution of anthropogenic heat flux is inhomogeneous, and the emission flux in southern Jiangsu is higher than that in northern Jiangsu. High emissions usually occur in urban areas. In 2010, the regional average value of anthropogenic heat flux over Jiangsu is about 2.5 W/m². The high values over urban areas in southern Jiangsu are greater than 10 W/m², while those in urban areas in northern Jiangsu are larger than 5 W/m². The anthropogenic heat emissions over all urban areas in Jiangsu Province have been steadily increasing. After 2002, the increasing rate accelerates and reaches up to 2 W m^-2 a^-1. Based on the present trends of energy consumption and population growth, the mean anthropogenic heat flux over Jiangsu is projected to be 5.7 W/m² and 9.1 W/m² in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The above results imply that anthropogenic heat emissions may exert significant influences on regional climate and air quality in East China.