Capability Assessment of CMIP5 Models in Reproducing Observed Climatology and Decadal Changes in Summer Rainfall with Different Intensities over Eastern China

Zhaohui LIN; Xiaoyu YANG; Chenglai WU; Yuxi WANG; Hong CHEN

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16207

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Zhaohui LIN, Xiaoyu YANG, Chenglai WU, Yuxi WANG, Hong CHEN. Capability Assessment of CMIP5 Models in Reproducing Observed Climatology and Decadal Changes in Summer Rainfall with Different Intensities over Eastern China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(1): 1-25. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16207

Citation:

Zhaohui LIN, Xiaoyu YANG, Chenglai WU, Yuxi WANG, Hong CHEN. Capability Assessment of CMIP5 Models in Reproducing Observed Climatology and Decadal Changes in Summer Rainfall with Different Intensities over Eastern China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(1): 1-25. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16207

Citation:

Zhaohui LIN, Xiaoyu YANG, Chenglai WU, Yuxi WANG, Hong CHEN. Capability Assessment of CMIP5 Models in Reproducing Observed Climatology and Decadal Changes in Summer Rainfall with Different Intensities over Eastern China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(1): 1-25. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16207

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Capability Assessment of CMIP5 Models in Reproducing Observed Climatology and Decadal Changes in Summer Rainfall with Different Intensities over Eastern China

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16207

Zhaohui LIN^{1, 2, 3
,},
Xiaoyu YANG^{1, 2},
Chenglai WU¹,
Yuxi WANG^{1, 2},
Hong CHEN¹

1.
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
3.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044

Funds:

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2016YFC0402702

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41575095

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41575080

Chinese Academy of Sciences "The Belt and Road Initiatives" Program on International Cooperation 134111KYSB20160010

Received Date: 2016-11-23
Available Online: 2017-09-13
Publish Date: 2018-01-20

Abstract

Abstract

The capabilities of 17 CMIP5 models for simulating the intensity distribution of summer rainfall over eastern China are evaluated based on daily observational data. The decadal changes of rainfall with different intensities in the later 1970s and their relative contributions to the decadal change in total rainfall for both observation and model simulations are further analyzed and compared. Observations indicate that the total rainfall is mainly composed of light and medium rainfall over northern and northeastern China, while heavy rainfall account for a large proportion of the total rainfall over southern China and the Yangtze-Huai River basin (YHRB). In general, the CMIP5 models are able to capture the observed spatial distribution of proportion of light and heavy rainfall to total rainfall amount in Eastern China, except for medium rainfall. Most models have a bias toward an overestimation of the light and medium rainfall events, and an underestimation of heavy rainfall events. Therefore, these models overestimate the amount of total rainfall over northern and northeastern China and underestimate the amount of total rainfall over southern China and the YHRB. Our analysis indicates that the observed decadal changes in total rainfall over northern China and the YHRB in the late 1970s are mainly attributed to changes in heavy rainfall events. Over northern China, a few CMIP5 models reproduced the observed decadal decrease in both heavy rainfall and total rainfall. Over the YHRB, several models can reproduce the observed decadal increase in total rainfall. However, these models failed to reproduce the increase in heavy rainfall amount due to the model bias of a severe underestimation of heavy rainfall. The authors also find out that multi-model ensemble technique cannot significantly improve the model performance in simulating the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity, especially its decadal changes.
- CMIP5 models,
- Precipitation intensity,
- Decadal variability,
- Model evaluation

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References(29)

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