Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China

Meishuang WU; Weibiao LI; Yinlong XU; Xiuzhen LI; Min ZHANG

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018

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Meishuang WU, Weibiao LI, Yinlong XU, Xiuzhen LI, Min ZHANG. Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(2): 241-251. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018

Citation:

Meishuang WU, Weibiao LI, Yinlong XU, Xiuzhen LI, Min ZHANG. Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(2): 241-251. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018

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Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018

1.
South China Sea Forecast Center, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510000
2.
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yai-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275
3.
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081

Funds:

Director Foundation for Marine Science and Technology by State Oceanic Administation, South China Sea Branch 1716

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41675043

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41375050

the Water Resource Science and Technology Innovation Program of Guangdong Province 2016-02

Received Date: 2017-02-13
Available Online: 2017-07-07
Publish Date: 2018-03-20

Abstract

Abstract

This paper exploits the regional climate mode PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) to analyze the changes of the drought and flood indices in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century under the SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B) scenario compared with the climatic reference period (1961-1990). Plenty of drought and flood indices are utilized first to verify the capacity of PRECIS for drought and flood indices simulation. Possible changes of the future drought and flood conditions in South China are preliminarily discussed. Results indicate that PRECIS can well simulate yearly and monthly changing features of the selected drought and flood indices. Under the SRES A1B scenario, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation event in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century will increase dramatically, and the period of precipitation extreme will increase too, thereby the possibility of flood disaster occurrence will grow to a large extent. Meanwhile, possible changes of meteorological drought in spring, summer and autumn in South China is not obvious, but in winter the possibility will rise, especially in the winters of the last thirty years of the 21st century, the possibility will be higher.
- South China area,
- PRECIS model,
- Drought/Flood Change,
- Scenario analysis

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References(29)

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