Evaluation on CMIP6 Global Climate Model Simulation of the Annual Mean Daily Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature in China

Simulations for China’s annual average maximum and minimum surface air temperature by CMIP6 models were evaluated, referring to observations from CN05.1 data. Results show that the annual average maximum and minimum surface air temperature in China from 1961 to 2014 had increasing trends. The maximum surface air temperature increased at a rate of 2.15°C/100 a. The growth rate of the minimum air temperature was 3.92°C/100 a, which was about twice the growth rate of the maximum air temperature. CMIP6 models can simulate trends over long time scales, but there were large differences in the simulation ability of different models. The dispersion between models reached 0.38°C/100 a (maximum air temperature) and 0.41°C/100 a (minimum air temperature). BCC-ESM1 and EC-Earth3 had the best performance in simulating the trends of the maximum and minimum air temperature, respectively. CMIP6 models can well simulate the spatial distribution of the climatological maximum and minimum air temperature in China. Proportions of grid points where the most of the model simulations correlated positively with observations were 82% (maximum air temperature) and 97% (minimum air temperature) in China. Simulation results of the maximum and minimum air temperature in the whole of eastern China had obvious geographical characteristics with a standard deviation within 3°C, showing a high consistency. The variation was significant in the western region and reached more than 6°C in the Tibetan Plateau. GISS-E2-1-G and MRI-ESM2-0 can well simulate the main EOF (empirical orthogonal function) modes and principal components of the maximum and minimum air temperature in China during 1961–2014. In summary, CMIP6 models can well simulate the spatial distribution of the climatological maximum and minimum air temperature and interannual trends of the maximum and minimum air temperature in China.