Projected Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Rural Revitalization Areas in China under 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming Scenarios

The ecological environments of rural revitalization areas in China are relatively fragile. Additionally, meteorological disasters, e.g., heavy rains and floods, occur frequently in these areas. Thus, a quantitative and scientific evaluation of characteristic changes of precipitation extremes in rural revitalization areas at different global warming levels can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of strategies to prevent these areas from returning to poverty due to meteorological disasters. Here, we investigated changes in characteristics of precipitation extremes, i.e., frequency, intensity, and duration, under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming scenarios, across rural revitalization areas in China. We used fourteen global climate models under four different emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) from the latest Sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project for analysis. Run-theory was also used to analyze the characteristics of extreme precipitation events. Under 1.5°C warming scenario, the frequency, intensity, and duration of the precipitation extremes were predicted to increase 60.91%, 88.19%, and 81.07% over the entire region, respectively, relative to a reference period (1995–2014). Under 2°C warming scenario, changes in precipitation extreme characteristics were predicted to increase 55.78%, 85.24%, and 79.33% over the entire region, respectively. The central and western regions of the rural revitalization areas were expected to be more susceptible to precipitation extremes compared with the eastern parts for both 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels. These changes in frequency and duration were predominant in the Tibet region, which is of great concern. The additional 0.5°C of warming (from 1.5°C to 2.0°C) will lead to fewer areas affected by precipitation extremes for the studied areas. However, these extreme events will be more severe and have longer durations in the affected regions. These findings necessitate the initiation of urgent mitigation and adaptation measures to combat precipitation-related extreme events across rural revitalization areas in China.