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Volume 28 Issue 2
Mar.  2023
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LI Chao, LI Yuan, CHEN Qian, et al. 2023. Circulation Characteristics of Winter Rainfall Interannual Variations over South China and Their Response to Preceding Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (2): 131−142 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21155
Citation: LI Chao, LI Yuan, CHEN Qian, et al. 2023. Circulation Characteristics of Winter Rainfall Interannual Variations over South China and Their Response to Preceding Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (2): 131−142 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21155

Circulation Characteristics of Winter Rainfall Interannual Variations over South China and Their Response to Preceding Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21155
Funds:  National Key Research and Development Program of China for Intergovernmental Cooperation (Grant 2019YFE0110100), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41975124), Science and Technology Innovation Team Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau (Grant GRMCTD202104), Shenzhen Fundamental Research and Discipline Layout Project (Grants JCYJ20200109113014456 and JCYJ20210324120208022)
  • Received Date: 2021-09-17
    Available Online: 2022-05-28
  • Publish Date: 2023-03-25
  • The characteristics of the interannual variability of winter (December–February) precipitation over South China and their association with atmospheric and preceding ocean conditions are analyzed using the observed precipitation data from 160 surface meteorological stations in China, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, and the sea surface temperature (SST) dataset from the Met Office Hadley Center. The precipitation tends to be more (less) than the climatology under a southward (northward) shift of the East Asian jet stream, the weakened (strengthened) East Asian trough, and the enhanced (attenuated) transient eddy. The southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea in the front of the southern branch trough favor more precipitation over South China. Further analysis suggests that the preceding SST anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific in November have a closer relationship with the southern branch trough and low-level southwesterly winds associated with the variation in precipitation over South China, which could not be well explained by the ENSO-like SSTAs. The correlation coefficient between precipitation over South China and the derived index from the preceding SSTA is 0.44 and reaches a maximum when the SSTA index leads precipitation anomalies by approximately one month, which may act as a potential precursor for wintertime precipitation predictions.
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