Climate Prediction and Outlook in China for the Flood Season 2022

China is a country prone to natural catastrophes, and the losses generated by meteorological events account for 70% of all natural disaster losses. In the summer of 2020, the unusually long Meiyu period occurred, leading to heavy floods in the Yangtze River valley and Huaihe River basin. In the summer of 2021, the rainy season in North China began earlier and ended later than usual, during which the “21·7” torrential rain event occurred in Henan Province. All of these natural disasters have had terrible effects on the local economy and society. As a result, seasonal climate predictions are extremely significant. In March 2022, the Annual Symposium on China Climate Prediction for the summer season (June−August) was held at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Climate anomalies in China for summer 2022 are expected based on the results of several numerical and statistical models of IAP against the background of a transition from a La Niña event to an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) normal state in the next 4−6 months. During the flood season (June−August) 2022, slightly more than normal seasonally averaged precipitation might occur in eastern and central parts of Northeast China, most parts of North China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the southeast coastal region of China, central Northwest China, most parts of Tibet, the eastern part of Southwest China, and most parts of Yunnan Province. In particular, 20%–50% above average may be forecast in the Bohai Bay area, meaning a high risk of local flooding disasters. In contrast, other portions of China may see drier than normal weather this summer, and the precipitation amount might be reduced by 20%–50% in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of Xinjiang. This summer’s landfall typhoon may be slightly more than normal. Due to the uncertainty of ENSO evolution and limited ability to predict intra-seasonal variations of mid- and high-latitude atmospheric circulations, these climate prediction results for flood season are uncertain to some extent. The authors will make additional estimates based on the observed fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic processes in the late spring and early summer of 2022.