Response of Surface Climate in Northern China to 1.5/2°C Global Warming Threshold and Scenario
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Graphical Abstract
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Abstract
Analyzing the response of climate, water, and energy budgets, along with their components, to various warming thresholds and scenarios in the arid and semi-arid regions of northern China can further elucidate regional climate changes and form strategies for addressing future global warming. Using simulations from the global climate model, NESM (Nanjing University Information Science and Technology Earth System Model), and the regional model, WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model), we project the regional climate response to different warming scenarios under future temperature increases of 1.5°C and 2°C. Quantitative assessments of future changes in climate, water, and energy budgets in these arid and semi-arid areas indicate that under a stabilized 1.5°C warming scenario, the amplification of temperature and precipitation decreases from west to east. Additionally, the components of the water budget are influenced by changes in precipitation. Net radiation is expected to increase across the entire region, resulting in a greater transfer of heat to the atmosphere in the form of latent heat flux. When the stabilized warming reaches 2°C, temperatures in arid areas may exceed 2.6°C, accompanied by increases in precipitation and water budget components. However, changes in net radiation and sensible heat flux are projected to decrease in most regions compared with those under 1.5°C warming. In contrast to the case of stabilized 2°C warming, under the transient 2°C warming scenario, the increase in temperature is less pronounced across most areas, and weakening of net radiation may contribute to this reduction. The response of summer available water (precipitation−evaporation) to warming scenarios results in varying degrees of potential aridity changes among subregions. Compared with transient warming scenarios, the mitigation of aridification in arid and semi-humid areas is retarded under a stabilized 2°C warming scenario, and further alleviated aridification occurs in semi-arid areas.
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