2018 Vol. 35, No. 11
Display Method:
2018, 35(11): 1337-1346.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7064-3
Abstract:
The ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau is highly susceptible to climate change. Currently, there is little discussion on the temporal changes in the link between climatic factors and vegetation dynamics in this region under the changing climate. By employing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, the Climatic Research Unit temperature and precipitation data, and the in-situ meteorological observations, we report the temporal and spatial variations in the relationships between the vegetation dynamics and climatic factors on the Plateau over the past three decades. The results show that from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern part of the Plateau appears to show a closer relationship with precipitation prior to the growing season than that of temperature. From the mid-1990s, the temperature rise seems to be the key climatic factor correlating vegetation growth in this region. The effects of increasing temperature on vegetation are spatially variable across the Plateau: it has negative impacts on vegetation activity in the southwestern and northeastern part of the Plateau, and positive impacts in the central and southeastern Plateau. In the context of global warming, the changing climate condition (increasing precipitation and significant rising temperature) might be the potential contributor to the shift in the climatic controls on vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern Plateau.
The ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau is highly susceptible to climate change. Currently, there is little discussion on the temporal changes in the link between climatic factors and vegetation dynamics in this region under the changing climate. By employing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, the Climatic Research Unit temperature and precipitation data, and the in-situ meteorological observations, we report the temporal and spatial variations in the relationships between the vegetation dynamics and climatic factors on the Plateau over the past three decades. The results show that from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern part of the Plateau appears to show a closer relationship with precipitation prior to the growing season than that of temperature. From the mid-1990s, the temperature rise seems to be the key climatic factor correlating vegetation growth in this region. The effects of increasing temperature on vegetation are spatially variable across the Plateau: it has negative impacts on vegetation activity in the southwestern and northeastern part of the Plateau, and positive impacts in the central and southeastern Plateau. In the context of global warming, the changing climate condition (increasing precipitation and significant rising temperature) might be the potential contributor to the shift in the climatic controls on vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern Plateau.
2018, 35(11): 1347-1361.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8057-y
Abstract:
The modulation of the intensity of nascent Tibetan Plateau vortices (ITPV) by atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is investigated based on final operational global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The spatial and temporal distributions of the ITPV show distinct features of 10-20-day QBWO. The average ITPV is much higher in the positive phases than in the negative phases, and the number of strong TPVs is much larger in the former, with a peak that appears in phase 3. In addition, the maximum centers of the ITPV stretch eastward in the positive phases, indicating periodic variations in the locations where strong TPVs are generated. The large-scale circulations and related thermodynamic fields are discussed to investigate the mechanism by which the 10-20-day QBWO modulates the ITPV. The atmospheric circulations and heating fields of the 10-20-day QBWO have a major impact on the ITPV. In the positive QBWO phases, the anomalous convergence at 500 hPa and divergence at 200 hPa are conducive to ascending motion. In addition, the convergence centers of the water vapor and the atmospheric unstable stratification are found in the positive QBWO phases and move eastward. Correspondingly, condensational latent heat is released and shifts eastward with the heating centers located at 400 hPa, which favors a higher ITPV by depressing the isobaric surface at 500 hPa. All of the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions in the positive QBWO phases are conducive to the generation of stronger TPVs and their eastward expansion.
The modulation of the intensity of nascent Tibetan Plateau vortices (ITPV) by atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is investigated based on final operational global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The spatial and temporal distributions of the ITPV show distinct features of 10-20-day QBWO. The average ITPV is much higher in the positive phases than in the negative phases, and the number of strong TPVs is much larger in the former, with a peak that appears in phase 3. In addition, the maximum centers of the ITPV stretch eastward in the positive phases, indicating periodic variations in the locations where strong TPVs are generated. The large-scale circulations and related thermodynamic fields are discussed to investigate the mechanism by which the 10-20-day QBWO modulates the ITPV. The atmospheric circulations and heating fields of the 10-20-day QBWO have a major impact on the ITPV. In the positive QBWO phases, the anomalous convergence at 500 hPa and divergence at 200 hPa are conducive to ascending motion. In addition, the convergence centers of the water vapor and the atmospheric unstable stratification are found in the positive QBWO phases and move eastward. Correspondingly, condensational latent heat is released and shifts eastward with the heating centers located at 400 hPa, which favors a higher ITPV by depressing the isobaric surface at 500 hPa. All of the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions in the positive QBWO phases are conducive to the generation of stronger TPVs and their eastward expansion.
2018, 35(11): 1362-1371.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8003-z
Abstract:
Based on the high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method, this study explored the effects of optimal initial errors on the prediction of the Kuroshio large meander (LM) path, and the growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was revealed. For each LM event, two types of initial error (denoted as CNOP1 and CNOP2) were obtained. Their large amplitudes were found located mainly in the upper 2500 m in the upstream region of the LM, i.e., southeast of Kyushu. Furthermore, we analyzed the patterns and nonlinear evolution of the two types of CNOP. We found CNOP1 tends to strengthen the LM path through southwestward extension. Conversely, CNOP2 has almost the opposite pattern to CNOP1, and it tends to weaken the LM path through northeastward contraction. The growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was clarified through eddy-energetics analysis. The results indicated that energy from the background field is transferred to the error field because of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities. Thus, it is inferred that both barotropic and baroclinic processes play important roles in the growth of CNOP-type optimal initial errors.
Based on the high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method, this study explored the effects of optimal initial errors on the prediction of the Kuroshio large meander (LM) path, and the growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was revealed. For each LM event, two types of initial error (denoted as CNOP1 and CNOP2) were obtained. Their large amplitudes were found located mainly in the upper 2500 m in the upstream region of the LM, i.e., southeast of Kyushu. Furthermore, we analyzed the patterns and nonlinear evolution of the two types of CNOP. We found CNOP1 tends to strengthen the LM path through southwestward extension. Conversely, CNOP2 has almost the opposite pattern to CNOP1, and it tends to weaken the LM path through northeastward contraction. The growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was clarified through eddy-energetics analysis. The results indicated that energy from the background field is transferred to the error field because of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities. Thus, it is inferred that both barotropic and baroclinic processes play important roles in the growth of CNOP-type optimal initial errors.
2018, 35(11): 1372-1380.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7305-5
Abstract:
The East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern is the dominant mode of circulation variability during boreal summer over the western North Pacific and East Asia, extending from the tropics to high latitudes. However, much of this pattern is absent in multi-model ensemble mean forecasts, characterized by very weak circulation anomalies in the mid and high latitudes. This study focuses on the absence of the EAP pattern in the extratropics, using state-of-the-art coupled seasonal forecast systems. The results indicate that the extratropical circulation is much less predictable, and lies in the large spread among different ensemble members, implying a large contribution from atmospheric internal variability. However, the tropical-mid-latitude teleconnections are also relatively weaker in models than observations, which also contributes to the failure of prediction of the extratropical circulation. Further results indicate that the extratropical EAP pattern varies closely with the anomalous surface temperatures in eastern Russia, which also show low predictability. This unpredictable circulation-surface temperature connection associated with the EAP pattern can also modulate the East Asian rainband.
The East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern is the dominant mode of circulation variability during boreal summer over the western North Pacific and East Asia, extending from the tropics to high latitudes. However, much of this pattern is absent in multi-model ensemble mean forecasts, characterized by very weak circulation anomalies in the mid and high latitudes. This study focuses on the absence of the EAP pattern in the extratropics, using state-of-the-art coupled seasonal forecast systems. The results indicate that the extratropical circulation is much less predictable, and lies in the large spread among different ensemble members, implying a large contribution from atmospheric internal variability. However, the tropical-mid-latitude teleconnections are also relatively weaker in models than observations, which also contributes to the failure of prediction of the extratropical circulation. Further results indicate that the extratropical EAP pattern varies closely with the anomalous surface temperatures in eastern Russia, which also show low predictability. This unpredictable circulation-surface temperature connection associated with the EAP pattern can also modulate the East Asian rainband.
2018, 35(11): 1381-1395.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8027-4
Abstract:
Particulate matter with diameters of 2.5 μm or smaller (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are major pollutants in the urban atmosphere. PM2.5 can affect O3 by altering the photolysis rate and heterogeneous reactions. However, these two processes and their relative importance remain uncertain. In this paper, with Nanjing in China as the target city, we investigate the characteristics and mechanism of interactions between particles and O3 based on ground observations and numerical modeling. In 2008, the average concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 at Caochangmen station are 64.6 47.4 μg m-3 and 24.6 22.8 ppb, respectively, while at Pukou station they are 94.1 63.4 μg m-3 and 16.9 14.9 ppb. The correlation coefficient between PM2.5 and O3 is -0.46. In order to understand the reaction between PM2.5 and O3, we construct a box model, in which an aerosol optical property model, ultraviolet radiation model, gas phase chemistry model, and heterogeneous chemistry model, are coupled. The model is employed to investigate the relative contribution of the aforementioned two processes, which vary under different particle concentrations, scattering capability and VOCs/NO x ratios (VOCs: volatile organic compounds; NO x: nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide). Generally, photolysis rate effect can cause a greater O3 reduction when the particle concentrations are higher, while heterogeneous reactions dominate O3 reduction with low-level particle concentrations. Moreover, in typical VOC-sensitive regions, O3 can even be increased by heterogeneous reactions. In Nanjing, both processes lead to O3 reduction, and photolysis rate effect is dominant. Our study underscores the importance of photolysis rate effect and heterogeneous reactions for O3, and such interaction processes should be fully considered in future atmospheric chemistry modeling.
Particulate matter with diameters of 2.5 μm or smaller (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are major pollutants in the urban atmosphere. PM2.5 can affect O3 by altering the photolysis rate and heterogeneous reactions. However, these two processes and their relative importance remain uncertain. In this paper, with Nanjing in China as the target city, we investigate the characteristics and mechanism of interactions between particles and O3 based on ground observations and numerical modeling. In 2008, the average concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 at Caochangmen station are 64.6 47.4 μg m-3 and 24.6 22.8 ppb, respectively, while at Pukou station they are 94.1 63.4 μg m-3 and 16.9 14.9 ppb. The correlation coefficient between PM2.5 and O3 is -0.46. In order to understand the reaction between PM2.5 and O3, we construct a box model, in which an aerosol optical property model, ultraviolet radiation model, gas phase chemistry model, and heterogeneous chemistry model, are coupled. The model is employed to investigate the relative contribution of the aforementioned two processes, which vary under different particle concentrations, scattering capability and VOCs/NO x ratios (VOCs: volatile organic compounds; NO x: nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide). Generally, photolysis rate effect can cause a greater O3 reduction when the particle concentrations are higher, while heterogeneous reactions dominate O3 reduction with low-level particle concentrations. Moreover, in typical VOC-sensitive regions, O3 can even be increased by heterogeneous reactions. In Nanjing, both processes lead to O3 reduction, and photolysis rate effect is dominant. Our study underscores the importance of photolysis rate effect and heterogeneous reactions for O3, and such interaction processes should be fully considered in future atmospheric chemistry modeling.
2018, 35(11): 1396-1414.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7306-4
Abstract:
In this paper, we report the location results for the parent lightning strokes of more than 30 red sprites observed over an asymmetric mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 30 July 2015 in Shandong Province, China, with a long-baseline lightning location network of very-low-frequency/low-frequency magnetic field sensors. The results show that almost all of these cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes are produced during the mature stage of the MCS, and are predominantly located in the trailing stratiform region, which is similar to analyses of sprite-productive MCSs in North America and Europe. Comparison between the location results for the sprite-producing CG strokes and those provided by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) indicates that the location accuracy of WWLLN for intense CG strokes in Shandong Province is typically within 10 km, which is consistent with the result based on analysis of 2838 sprite-producing CG strokes in the continental United States. Also, we analyze two cases where some minor lightning discharges in the parent flash of sprites can also be located, providing an approach to confine the thundercloud region tapped by the sprite-producing CG strokes.
In this paper, we report the location results for the parent lightning strokes of more than 30 red sprites observed over an asymmetric mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 30 July 2015 in Shandong Province, China, with a long-baseline lightning location network of very-low-frequency/low-frequency magnetic field sensors. The results show that almost all of these cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes are produced during the mature stage of the MCS, and are predominantly located in the trailing stratiform region, which is similar to analyses of sprite-productive MCSs in North America and Europe. Comparison between the location results for the sprite-producing CG strokes and those provided by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) indicates that the location accuracy of WWLLN for intense CG strokes in Shandong Province is typically within 10 km, which is consistent with the result based on analysis of 2838 sprite-producing CG strokes in the continental United States. Also, we analyze two cases where some minor lightning discharges in the parent flash of sprites can also be located, providing an approach to confine the thundercloud region tapped by the sprite-producing CG strokes.
2018, 35(11): 1415-1427.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8026-5
Abstract:
To date, the intraseasonal variation of raindrop size distribution (DSD) in response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been examined only over the Indonesian Maritime Continent, particularly in Sumatra. This paper presents the intraseasonal variation of DSD over the Indian Ocean during the Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY 2011) field campaign. The DSDs determined using a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer, which was installed on the roof of the anti-rolling system of the R/V Mirai during stationary observation (25 September to 30 November 2011) at (8°S, 80.5°E), were analyzed. The vertical structure of precipitation was revealed by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (version 7) data. While the general features of vertical structures of precipitation observed during the CINDY and Sumatra observation are similar, the intraseasonal variation of the DSD in response to the MJO at each location is slightly different. The DSDs during the active phase of the MJO are slightly broader than those during the inactive phase, which is indicated by a larger mass-weighted mean diameter value. Furthermore, the radar reflectivity during the active MJO phase is greater than that during the inactive phase at the same rainfall rate. The microphysical processes that generate large-sized drops over the ocean appear to be more dominant during the active MJO phase, in contrast to the observations made on land (Sumatra). This finding is consistent with the characteristics of radar reflectivity below the freezing level, storm height, bright band height, cloud effective radius, and aerosol optical depth.
To date, the intraseasonal variation of raindrop size distribution (DSD) in response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been examined only over the Indonesian Maritime Continent, particularly in Sumatra. This paper presents the intraseasonal variation of DSD over the Indian Ocean during the Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY 2011) field campaign. The DSDs determined using a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer, which was installed on the roof of the anti-rolling system of the R/V Mirai during stationary observation (25 September to 30 November 2011) at (8°S, 80.5°E), were analyzed. The vertical structure of precipitation was revealed by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (version 7) data. While the general features of vertical structures of precipitation observed during the CINDY and Sumatra observation are similar, the intraseasonal variation of the DSD in response to the MJO at each location is slightly different. The DSDs during the active phase of the MJO are slightly broader than those during the inactive phase, which is indicated by a larger mass-weighted mean diameter value. Furthermore, the radar reflectivity during the active MJO phase is greater than that during the inactive phase at the same rainfall rate. The microphysical processes that generate large-sized drops over the ocean appear to be more dominant during the active MJO phase, in contrast to the observations made on land (Sumatra). This finding is consistent with the characteristics of radar reflectivity below the freezing level, storm height, bright band height, cloud effective radius, and aerosol optical depth.
2018, 35(11): 1428-1441.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8014-9
Abstract:
In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal. However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A (FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System (WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions. The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.
In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal. However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A (FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System (WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions. The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.
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