2021 Vol. 38, No. 1
Display Method:
2021, 38(1): 1-7.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0260-y
Abstract:
The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes, caused flash flooding, urban flooding and landslides, and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China, particularly in the Yangtze River basin. Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year, which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years, even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China. Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation, which certainly warrants in-depth exploration, in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem. A “glocal” (global to local) hydrometeorological solution for floods (GHS-F) is considered to be critical for better preparedness, mitigation, and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding, which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China, India and the United States. Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives, with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain. Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested, emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.
The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes, caused flash flooding, urban flooding and landslides, and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China, particularly in the Yangtze River basin. Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year, which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years, even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China. Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation, which certainly warrants in-depth exploration, in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem. A “glocal” (global to local) hydrometeorological solution for floods (GHS-F) is considered to be critical for better preparedness, mitigation, and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding, which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China, India and the United States. Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives, with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain. Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested, emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.
2021, 38(1): 8-11.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0297-y
Abstract:
The 1st Chinese carbon dioxide (CO2) monitoring satellite mission, TanSat, was launched in 2016. The 1st TanSat global map of CO2 dry-air mixing ratio (XCO2) measurements over land was released as version 1 data product with an accuracy of 2.11 ppmv (parts per million by volume). In this paper, we introduce a new (version 2) TanSat global XCO2 product that is approached by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Carbon dioxide retrieval Algorithm for Satellite remote sensing (IAPCAS), and the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative plus (CCI+) TanSat XCO2 product by University of Leicester Full Physics (UoL-FP) retrieval algorithm. The correction of the measurement spectrum improves the accuracy (−0.08 ppmv) and precision (1.47 ppmv) of the new retrieval, which provides opportunity for further application in global carbon flux studies in the future. Inter-comparison between the two retrievals indicates a good agreement, with a standard deviation of 1.28 ppmv and a bias of −0.35 ppmv.
The 1st Chinese carbon dioxide (CO2) monitoring satellite mission, TanSat, was launched in 2016. The 1st TanSat global map of CO2 dry-air mixing ratio (XCO2) measurements over land was released as version 1 data product with an accuracy of 2.11 ppmv (parts per million by volume). In this paper, we introduce a new (version 2) TanSat global XCO2 product that is approached by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Carbon dioxide retrieval Algorithm for Satellite remote sensing (IAPCAS), and the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative plus (CCI+) TanSat XCO2 product by University of Leicester Full Physics (UoL-FP) retrieval algorithm. The correction of the measurement spectrum improves the accuracy (−0.08 ppmv) and precision (1.47 ppmv) of the new retrieval, which provides opportunity for further application in global carbon flux studies in the future. Inter-comparison between the two retrievals indicates a good agreement, with a standard deviation of 1.28 ppmv and a bias of −0.35 ppmv.
Influence of the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific Types of ENSO on the South Asian Summer Monsoon
2021, 38(1): 12-28.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0055-1
Abstract:
Based on observational and reanalysis data, the relationships between the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the developing summer and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) are examined. The roles of these two types of ENSO on the SASM experienced notable multidecadal modulation in the late 1970s. While the inverse relationship between the EP type of ENSO and the SASM has weakened dramatically, the CP type of ENSO plays a far more prominent role in producing anomalous Indian monsoon rainfall after the late 1970s. The drought-producing El Niño warming of both the EP and CP types can excite anomalous rising motion of the Walker circulation concentrated in the equatorial central Pacific around 160°W to the date line. Accordingly, compensatory subsidence anomalies are evident from the Maritime Continent to the Indian subcontinent, leading to suppressed convection and decreased precipitation over these regions. Moreover, anomalously less moisture flux into South Asia associated with developing EP El Niño and significant northwesterly anomalies dominating over southern India accompanied by developing CP El Niño, may also have been responsible for the Indian monsoon droughts during the pre-1979 and post-1979 sub-periods, respectively. El Niño events with the same “flavor” may not necessarily produce consistent Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies, while similar Indian monsoon droughts may be induced by different types of El Niño, implying high sensitivity of monsoonal precipitation to the detailed configuration of ENSO forcing imposed on the tropical Pacific.
Based on observational and reanalysis data, the relationships between the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the developing summer and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) are examined. The roles of these two types of ENSO on the SASM experienced notable multidecadal modulation in the late 1970s. While the inverse relationship between the EP type of ENSO and the SASM has weakened dramatically, the CP type of ENSO plays a far more prominent role in producing anomalous Indian monsoon rainfall after the late 1970s. The drought-producing El Niño warming of both the EP and CP types can excite anomalous rising motion of the Walker circulation concentrated in the equatorial central Pacific around 160°W to the date line. Accordingly, compensatory subsidence anomalies are evident from the Maritime Continent to the Indian subcontinent, leading to suppressed convection and decreased precipitation over these regions. Moreover, anomalously less moisture flux into South Asia associated with developing EP El Niño and significant northwesterly anomalies dominating over southern India accompanied by developing CP El Niño, may also have been responsible for the Indian monsoon droughts during the pre-1979 and post-1979 sub-periods, respectively. El Niño events with the same “flavor” may not necessarily produce consistent Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies, while similar Indian monsoon droughts may be induced by different types of El Niño, implying high sensitivity of monsoonal precipitation to the detailed configuration of ENSO forcing imposed on the tropical Pacific.
2021, 38(1): 29-48.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9223-6
Abstract:
A regional Arctic Ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is applied to simulate the Arctic sea ice from 1991 to 2012. The simulations are evaluated by comparing them with observations from different sources. The results show that MITgcm can reproduce the interannual and seasonal variability of the sea-ice extent, but underestimates the trend in sea-ice extent, especially in September. The ice concentration and thickness distributions are comparable to those from the observations, with most deviations within the observational uncertainties and less than 0.5 m, respectively. The simulated sea-ice extents are better correlated with observations in September, with a correlation coefficient of 0.95, than in March, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. However, the distributions of sea-ice concentration are better simulated in March, with higher pattern correlation coefficients (0.98) than in September. When the model underestimates the atmospheric influence on the sea-ice evolution in March, deviations in the sea-ice concentration arise at the ice edges and are higher than those in September. In contrast, when the model underestimates the oceanic boundaries’ influence on the September sea-ice evolution, disagreements in the distribution of the sea-ice concentration and its trend are found over most marginal seas in the Arctic Ocean. The uncertainties of the model, whereby it fails to incorporate the atmospheric information in March and oceanic information in September, contribute to varying model errors with the seasons.
A regional Arctic Ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is applied to simulate the Arctic sea ice from 1991 to 2012. The simulations are evaluated by comparing them with observations from different sources. The results show that MITgcm can reproduce the interannual and seasonal variability of the sea-ice extent, but underestimates the trend in sea-ice extent, especially in September. The ice concentration and thickness distributions are comparable to those from the observations, with most deviations within the observational uncertainties and less than 0.5 m, respectively. The simulated sea-ice extents are better correlated with observations in September, with a correlation coefficient of 0.95, than in March, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. However, the distributions of sea-ice concentration are better simulated in March, with higher pattern correlation coefficients (0.98) than in September. When the model underestimates the atmospheric influence on the sea-ice evolution in March, deviations in the sea-ice concentration arise at the ice edges and are higher than those in September. In contrast, when the model underestimates the oceanic boundaries’ influence on the September sea-ice evolution, disagreements in the distribution of the sea-ice concentration and its trend are found over most marginal seas in the Arctic Ocean. The uncertainties of the model, whereby it fails to incorporate the atmospheric information in March and oceanic information in September, contribute to varying model errors with the seasons.
2021, 38(1): 49-64.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0084-9
Abstract:
The variations in the wave energy and the amplitude along the energy dispersion paths of the barotropic Rossby waves in zonally symmetric basic flow are studied by solving the wave energy equation, which expresses that the wave energy variability is determined by the divergence of the group velocity and the energy budget from the basic flow. The results suggest that both the wave energy and the amplitude of a leading wave increase significantly in the propagating region that is located south of the jet axis and enclosed by a southern critical line and a northern turning latitude. The leading wave gains the barotropic energy from the basic flow by eddy activities. The amplitude continuously climbs up a peak at the turning latitude due to increasing wave energy and enlarging horizontal scale (shrinking total wavenumber). Both the wave energy and the amplitude eventually decrease when the trailing wave continuously approaches southward to the critical line. The trailing wave decays and its energy is continuously absorbed by the basic flow. Furthermore, both the wave energy and the amplitude oscillate with a limited range in the propagating region that is located near the jet axis and enclosed by two turning latitudes. Both the leading and trailing waves neither develop nor decay significantly. The jet works as a waveguide to allow the waves to propagate a long distance.
The variations in the wave energy and the amplitude along the energy dispersion paths of the barotropic Rossby waves in zonally symmetric basic flow are studied by solving the wave energy equation, which expresses that the wave energy variability is determined by the divergence of the group velocity and the energy budget from the basic flow. The results suggest that both the wave energy and the amplitude of a leading wave increase significantly in the propagating region that is located south of the jet axis and enclosed by a southern critical line and a northern turning latitude. The leading wave gains the barotropic energy from the basic flow by eddy activities. The amplitude continuously climbs up a peak at the turning latitude due to increasing wave energy and enlarging horizontal scale (shrinking total wavenumber). Both the wave energy and the amplitude eventually decrease when the trailing wave continuously approaches southward to the critical line. The trailing wave decays and its energy is continuously absorbed by the basic flow. Furthermore, both the wave energy and the amplitude oscillate with a limited range in the propagating region that is located near the jet axis and enclosed by two turning latitudes. Both the leading and trailing waves neither develop nor decay significantly. The jet works as a waveguide to allow the waves to propagate a long distance.
2021, 38(1): 65-80.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0179-3
Abstract:
Polarimetric radar and 2D video disdrometer observations provide new insights into the precipitation microphysical processes and characteristics in the inner rainband of tropical cyclone (TC) Kajiki (2019) in the South China Sea for the first time. The precipitation of Kajiki is dominated by high concentrations and small (< 3 mm) raindrops, which contribute more than 98% to the total precipitation. The average mass-weighted mean diameter and logarithmic normalized intercept are 1.49 mm and 4.47, respectively, indicating a larger mean diameter and a lower concentration compared to the TCs making landfall in eastern China. The ice processes of the inner rainband are dramatically different among different stages. The riming process is dominant during the mature stage, while during the decay stage the aggregation process is dominant. The vertical profiles of the polarimetric radar variables together with ice and liquid water contents in the convective region indicate that the formation of precipitation is dominated by warm-rain processes. Large raindrops collect cloud droplets and other raindrops, causing reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and specific differential phase to increase with decreasing height. That is, accretion and coalescence play a critical role in the formation of heavy rainfall. The melting of different particles generated by the ice process has a great influence on the initial raindrop size distribution (DSD) to further affect the warm-rain processes. The DSD above heavy rain with the effect of graupel has a wider spectral width than the region without the effect of graupel.
Polarimetric radar and 2D video disdrometer observations provide new insights into the precipitation microphysical processes and characteristics in the inner rainband of tropical cyclone (TC) Kajiki (2019) in the South China Sea for the first time. The precipitation of Kajiki is dominated by high concentrations and small (< 3 mm) raindrops, which contribute more than 98% to the total precipitation. The average mass-weighted mean diameter and logarithmic normalized intercept are 1.49 mm and 4.47, respectively, indicating a larger mean diameter and a lower concentration compared to the TCs making landfall in eastern China. The ice processes of the inner rainband are dramatically different among different stages. The riming process is dominant during the mature stage, while during the decay stage the aggregation process is dominant. The vertical profiles of the polarimetric radar variables together with ice and liquid water contents in the convective region indicate that the formation of precipitation is dominated by warm-rain processes. Large raindrops collect cloud droplets and other raindrops, causing reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and specific differential phase to increase with decreasing height. That is, accretion and coalescence play a critical role in the formation of heavy rainfall. The melting of different particles generated by the ice process has a great influence on the initial raindrop size distribution (DSD) to further affect the warm-rain processes. The DSD above heavy rain with the effect of graupel has a wider spectral width than the region without the effect of graupel.
Extensive Cold-Precipitation-Freezing Events in Southern China and Their Circulation Characteristics
2021, 38(1): 81-97.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0117-4
Abstract:
Concurrence of low temperature, precipitation and freezing weather in an extensive area would cause devastating impacts on local economy and society. We call such a combination of concurrent disastrous weather “extensive cold-precipitation-freezing” events (ECPFEs). In this study, the ECPFEs in southern China (15°−35°N, 102°−123°E) are objectively defined by using daily surface observational data for the period 1951−2013. An ECPFE in southern China is defined if the low temperature area, precipitation area and freezing area concurrently exceed their respective thresholds for at least three consecutive days. The identified ECPFEs are shown to be reasonable and reliable, compared with those in previous studies. The circulation anomalies in ECPFEs are characterized by a large-scale tilted ridge and trough pairing over mid- and high-latitude Eurasia, and the intensified subtropical westerlies along the southern foot of the Tibetan Plateau and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the subtropical western Pacific. Comparative analysis reveals that the stable cold air from the north and the warm and moist air from the south converge, facilitating a favorable environment for the concurrence of extensive low-temperature, precipitation and freezing weather.
Concurrence of low temperature, precipitation and freezing weather in an extensive area would cause devastating impacts on local economy and society. We call such a combination of concurrent disastrous weather “extensive cold-precipitation-freezing” events (ECPFEs). In this study, the ECPFEs in southern China (15°−35°N, 102°−123°E) are objectively defined by using daily surface observational data for the period 1951−2013. An ECPFE in southern China is defined if the low temperature area, precipitation area and freezing area concurrently exceed their respective thresholds for at least three consecutive days. The identified ECPFEs are shown to be reasonable and reliable, compared with those in previous studies. The circulation anomalies in ECPFEs are characterized by a large-scale tilted ridge and trough pairing over mid- and high-latitude Eurasia, and the intensified subtropical westerlies along the southern foot of the Tibetan Plateau and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the subtropical western Pacific. Comparative analysis reveals that the stable cold air from the north and the warm and moist air from the south converge, facilitating a favorable environment for the concurrence of extensive low-temperature, precipitation and freezing weather.
2021, 38(1): 98-115.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9255-y
Abstract:
In this study, an extreme rainfall event that occurred on 25 May 2018 over Shanghai and its nearby area was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with a focus on the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics using double nesting with large grid ratios (15:1 and 9:1). The sensitivity of the precipitation forecast was examined through three PBL schemes: the Yonsei University Scheme, the Mellor−Yamada−Nakanishi Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN) scheme, and the Mellor−Yamada−Janjic scheme. The PBL effects on boundary layer structures, convective thermodynamic and large-scale forcings were investigated to explain the model differences in extreme rainfall distributions and hourly variations. The results indicated that in single coarser grids (15 km and 9 km), the extreme rainfall amount was largely underestimated with all three PBL schemes. In the inner 1-km grid, the underestimated intensity was improved; however, using the MYNN scheme for the 1-km grid domain with explicitly resolved convection and nested within the 9-km grid using the Kain−Fritsch cumulus scheme, significant advantages over the other PBL schemes are revealed in predicting the extreme rainfall distribution and the time of primary peak rainfall. MYNN, with the weakest vertical mixing, produced the shallowest and most humid inversion layer with the lowest lifting condensation level, but stronger wind fields and upward motions from the top of the boundary layer to upper levels. These factors all facilitate the development of deep convection and moisture transport for intense precipitation, and result in its most realistic prediction of the primary rainfall peak.
In this study, an extreme rainfall event that occurred on 25 May 2018 over Shanghai and its nearby area was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with a focus on the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics using double nesting with large grid ratios (15:1 and 9:1). The sensitivity of the precipitation forecast was examined through three PBL schemes: the Yonsei University Scheme, the Mellor−Yamada−Nakanishi Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN) scheme, and the Mellor−Yamada−Janjic scheme. The PBL effects on boundary layer structures, convective thermodynamic and large-scale forcings were investigated to explain the model differences in extreme rainfall distributions and hourly variations. The results indicated that in single coarser grids (15 km and 9 km), the extreme rainfall amount was largely underestimated with all three PBL schemes. In the inner 1-km grid, the underestimated intensity was improved; however, using the MYNN scheme for the 1-km grid domain with explicitly resolved convection and nested within the 9-km grid using the Kain−Fritsch cumulus scheme, significant advantages over the other PBL schemes are revealed in predicting the extreme rainfall distribution and the time of primary peak rainfall. MYNN, with the weakest vertical mixing, produced the shallowest and most humid inversion layer with the lowest lifting condensation level, but stronger wind fields and upward motions from the top of the boundary layer to upper levels. These factors all facilitate the development of deep convection and moisture transport for intense precipitation, and result in its most realistic prediction of the primary rainfall peak.
2021, 38(1): 116-131.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0153-0
Abstract:
Summer and winter campaigns for the chemical compositions and sources of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were conducted in Xi’an. Data from 57 photochemical assessment monitoring stations for NMHCs and 20 OVOC species were analyzed. Significant seasonal differences were noted for total VOC (TVOC, NMHCs and OVOCs) concentrations and compositions. The campaign-average TVOC concentrations in winter (85.3 ± 60.6 ppbv) were almost twice those in summer (47.2 ± 31.6 ppbv). Alkanes and OVOCs were the most abundant category in winter and summer, respectively. NMHCs, but not OVOCs, had significantly higher levels on weekends than on weekdays. Total ozone formation potential was higher in summer than in winter (by 50%) because of the high concentrations of alkenes (particularly isoprene), high temperature, and high solar radiation levels in summer. The Hybrid Environmental Receptor Model (HERM) was used to conduct source apportionment for atmospheric TVOCs in winter and summer, with excellent accuracy. HERM demonstrated its suitability in a situation where only partial source profile data were available. The HERM results indicated significantly different seasonal source contributions to TVOCs in Xi’an. In particular, coal and biomass burning had contributions greater than half in winter (53.4%), whereas traffic sources were prevalent in summer (53.1%). This study’s results highlight the need for targeted and adjustable VOC control measures that account for seasonal differences in Xi’an; such measures should target not only the severe problem with VOC pollution but also the problem of consequent secondary pollution (e.g., from ozone and secondary organic aerosols).
Summer and winter campaigns for the chemical compositions and sources of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were conducted in Xi’an. Data from 57 photochemical assessment monitoring stations for NMHCs and 20 OVOC species were analyzed. Significant seasonal differences were noted for total VOC (TVOC, NMHCs and OVOCs) concentrations and compositions. The campaign-average TVOC concentrations in winter (85.3 ± 60.6 ppbv) were almost twice those in summer (47.2 ± 31.6 ppbv). Alkanes and OVOCs were the most abundant category in winter and summer, respectively. NMHCs, but not OVOCs, had significantly higher levels on weekends than on weekdays. Total ozone formation potential was higher in summer than in winter (by 50%) because of the high concentrations of alkenes (particularly isoprene), high temperature, and high solar radiation levels in summer. The Hybrid Environmental Receptor Model (HERM) was used to conduct source apportionment for atmospheric TVOCs in winter and summer, with excellent accuracy. HERM demonstrated its suitability in a situation where only partial source profile data were available. The HERM results indicated significantly different seasonal source contributions to TVOCs in Xi’an. In particular, coal and biomass burning had contributions greater than half in winter (53.4%), whereas traffic sources were prevalent in summer (53.1%). This study’s results highlight the need for targeted and adjustable VOC control measures that account for seasonal differences in Xi’an; such measures should target not only the severe problem with VOC pollution but also the problem of consequent secondary pollution (e.g., from ozone and secondary organic aerosols).
2021, 38(1): 132-146.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0081-z
Abstract:
An ensemble three-dimensional ensemble-variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation (E3DA) system was developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s 3DVar framework to assimilate radar data to improve convective forecasting. In this system, ensemble perturbations are updated by an ensemble of 3DEnVar and the ensemble forecasts are used to generate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The performance of the E3DA system was first evaluated against one experiment without radar DA and one radar DA experiment with 3DVar, using a severe storm case over southeastern China on 5 June 2009. Results indicated that E3DA improved the quantitative forecast skills of reflectivity and precipitation, as well as their spatial distributions in terms of both intensity and coverage over 3DVar. The root-mean-square error of radial velocity from 3DVar was reduced by E3DA, with stronger low-level wind closer to observation. It was also found that E3DA improved the wind, temperature and water vapor mixing ratio, with the lowest errors at the surface and upper levels. 3DVar showed moderate improvements in comparison with forecasts without radar DA. A diagnosis of the analysis revealed that E3DA increased vertical velocity, temperature, and humidity corresponding to the added reflectivity, while 3DVar failed to produce these adjustments, because of the lack of reasonable cross-variable correlations. The performance of E3DA was further verified using two convective cases over southern and southeastern China, and the reflectivity forecast skill was also improved over 3DVar.
An ensemble three-dimensional ensemble-variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation (E3DA) system was developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s 3DVar framework to assimilate radar data to improve convective forecasting. In this system, ensemble perturbations are updated by an ensemble of 3DEnVar and the ensemble forecasts are used to generate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The performance of the E3DA system was first evaluated against one experiment without radar DA and one radar DA experiment with 3DVar, using a severe storm case over southeastern China on 5 June 2009. Results indicated that E3DA improved the quantitative forecast skills of reflectivity and precipitation, as well as their spatial distributions in terms of both intensity and coverage over 3DVar. The root-mean-square error of radial velocity from 3DVar was reduced by E3DA, with stronger low-level wind closer to observation. It was also found that E3DA improved the wind, temperature and water vapor mixing ratio, with the lowest errors at the surface and upper levels. 3DVar showed moderate improvements in comparison with forecasts without radar DA. A diagnosis of the analysis revealed that E3DA increased vertical velocity, temperature, and humidity corresponding to the added reflectivity, while 3DVar failed to produce these adjustments, because of the lack of reasonable cross-variable correlations. The performance of E3DA was further verified using two convective cases over southern and southeastern China, and the reflectivity forecast skill was also improved over 3DVar.
2021, 38(1): 147-155.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0090-y
Abstract:
It has been suggested that a warm (cold) ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late (early) onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) in spring. Our results show this positive relationship, which is mainly determined by their phase correlation, has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011, due to the disturbance of cold tongue (CT) La Niña events. Different from its canonical counterpart, a CT La Niña event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific. Owing to the increased Indian−western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Niña events, empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.
It has been suggested that a warm (cold) ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late (early) onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) in spring. Our results show this positive relationship, which is mainly determined by their phase correlation, has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011, due to the disturbance of cold tongue (CT) La Niña events. Different from its canonical counterpart, a CT La Niña event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific. Owing to the increased Indian−western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Niña events, empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.
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