Allen, M., B. B. B. Booth, D. J. Frame, J. M. Gregory, J. A. Kettleborough, L. A. Smith, D. A. Stainforth, and P. A. Stott, 2004: Observational constraints on future climate: Distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting. Proc. IPCC Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty and Risk, Vol. 11, Maynooth, Ireland, 14 pp. |
Barriopedro, D., E. M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, R. M. Trigo, and R. García-Herrera, 2011: The hot summer of 2010: Redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science, 332(6026), 220−224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224. |
Chai, R. F., S. L. Sun, H. S. Chen, and S. J. Zhou, 2018: Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960-2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation. Hydrological Processes, 32(19), 3032−3048, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13252. |
Chen, H. P., J. Q. Sun, W. Q. Lin, and H. W. Xu, 2020: Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating climate extremes. Science Bulletin, 65(17), 1415−1418, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2020.05.015. |
Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2013: Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. Climate change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 1029−1136. |
Ding, T., Qian, W., and Yan, Z., 2010: Changes in hot days and heat waves in China during 1961−2007. International Journal of Climatology, 30(10), 1452−1462, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1989. |
Eyring, V., S. Bony, G. A. Meehl, C. A. Senior, B. Stevens, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2016: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 1937−1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016. |
Flynn, C. M., and T. Mauritsen, 2020: On the climate sensitivity and historical warming evolution in recent coupled model ensembles. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20(13), 7829−7842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7829-2020. |
Fu, Y. H., R. Y. Lu, and D. Guo, 2018: Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming targets. Advances in Climate Change Research, 9(2), 112−119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.12.001. |
Hu, T., Y. Sun, and X. B. Zhang, 2017: Temperature and precipitation projection at 1.5 and 2°C increase in global mean temperature. Chinese Science Bulletin, 62(26), 3098−3111, https://doi.org/10.1360/N972016-01234.(inChinesewithEnglishabstract). (in Chinese with English abstract) |
Huang, J. P., H. P. Yu, A. G. Dai, Y. Wei, and L. T. Kang, 2017: Drylands face potential threat under 2°C global warming target. Nature Climate Change, 7(6), 417−422, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3275. |
IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, 1535 pp. |
Jiang, J., T. J. Zhou, X. L. Chen, and L. X. Zhang, 2020: Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections. Environmental Research Letters, 15(5), 054009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d03/meta. |
Jiang, T., and Coauthors, 2017: National and provincial population projected to 2100 under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China. Climate Change Research, 13(2), 128−137, https://doi.org/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.249. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
Jones, B., and B. C. O'Neill, 2016: Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 084003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003. |
Jones, B., and B. C. O'Neill, 2020: Global one-eighth degree population base year and projection grids based on the shared socioeconomic pathways, revision 01. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Palisades, NY, https://doi.org/10.7927/m30p-j498. |
King, A. D., D. J. Karoly, and B. J. Henley, 2017: Australian climate extremes at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming. Nature Climate Change, 7(6), 412−416, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3296. |
Li, D. H., T. J. Zhou, L. W. Zou, W. X. Zhang, and L. X. Zhang, 2018: Extreme high-temperature events over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM low-warming experiments. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 1541−1550, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076753. |
Li, X. Y., and Coauthors, 2019: Effects of forest fires on the permafrost environment in the northern Da Xing’anling (Hinggan) mountains, Northeast China. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 30(3), 163−177, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2001. |
Liang, X. Z., and Coauthors, 2019: CWRF performance at downscaling China climate characteristics. Climate Dynamics, 52(3−4), 2159−2184, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4257-5. |
Lin, L., Z. L. Wang, Y. Y. Xu, X. Y. Zhang, H. Zhang, and W. J. Dong, 2018: Additional intensification of seasonal heat and flooding extreme over China in a 2°C warmer world compared to 1.5°C. Earth’s Future, 6, 968−978, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000862. |
Meehl, G. A., and C. Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305(5686), 994−997, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1098704. |
Mora, C., and Coauthors, 2017: Global risk of deadly heat. Nature Climate Change, 7(7), 501−506, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322. |
Nangombe, S., T. J. Zhou, W. X. Zhang, B. Wu, S. Hu, L. W. Zou, and D. H. Li, 2018: Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenarios. Nature Climate Change, 8, 375−380, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0145-6. |
O’Neill, B. C., and Coauthors, 2017: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 42, 169−180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004. |
Robine, J. M., S. L. K. Cheung, S. Le Roy, H. Van Oyen, C. Griffiths, J.-P. Michel, and F. R. Herrmann, 2008: Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. Comptes Rendus Biologies, 331(2), 171−178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001. |
Samset, B. H., M. Sand, C. J. Smith, S. E. Bauer, P. M. Forster, J. S. Fuglestvedt, S. Osprey, and C.-F. Schleussner, 2018: Climate impacts from a removal of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 1020−1029, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076079. |
Sanderson, B. M., and Coauthors, 2017: Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5°C and 2°C futures. Earth System Dynamics, 8(3), 827−847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017. |
Seneviratne, S. I., M. G. Donat, A. J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R. L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529(7587), 477−483, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542. |
Shi, C., Z. H. Jiang, W. L. Chen, and L Li, 2018a: Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming targets. Advances in Climate Change Research, 9(2), 120−129, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.11.003. |
Shi, Y., D. F. Zhang, Y. Xu, and B.-T. Zhou, 2018b: Changes of heating and cooling degree days over China in response to global warming of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C. Advances in Climate Change Research, 9, 192−200, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2018.06.003. |
Smith, T. T., B. F. Zaitchik, and J. M. Gohlke, 2013: Heat waves in the United States: Definitions, patterns and trends. Climatic Change, 118(3−4), 811−825, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0659-2. |
Su, B. D., and Coauthors, 2018: Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115, 10600−10605, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802129115. |
Tao, F., and Zhang, Z., 2013: Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 146−165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.003. |
The Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2015: The Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Science Press, Beijing. 280 pp. (in Chinese) |
UNFCCC, 2015: Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Proposal by the President. Report No. Proposal by the President. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1. [Available online from https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf]. |
Wang, H. L., Y. T. Gan, R. Y. Wang, J.Y. Niu, H. Zhao, Q.G. Yang, and G.C. Li, 2008: Phenological trends in winter wheat and spring cotton in response to climate changes in northwest China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148(8−9), 1242−1251, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.03.003. |
Wang, X. X., D. B. Jiang, and X. M. Lang, 2018: Climate change of 4°C global warming above pre-industrial levels. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 35, 757−770, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-7160-4. |
Weber, T., A. Haensler, D. Rechid, S. Pfeifer, B. Eggert, and D. Jacob, 2018: Analyzing regional climate change in Africa in a 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C global warming world. Earth’s Future, 6, 643−655, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000714. |
Wilbanks, T., and Coauthors, 2012: Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities: Technical Report for the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment, 29 February 2012. [Available from https://www.esd.ornl.gov/eess/Infrastructure.pdf] |
World Meteorological Association, 2020: WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2019. WMO. 44 pp. |
Xu, Y., B. T. Zhou, J. Wu, Z. Y. Han, Y. X. Zhang, and J. Wu, 2017: Asian climate change under 1.5°C−4°C warming targets. Advances in Climate Change Research, 8, 99−107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.05.004. |
Yang, X. Y., G. Zeng, G. W. Zhang, V. Iyakaremye, and Y. Xu, 2020: Future projections of winter cold surge paths over East Asia from CMIP6 models. International Journal of Climatology, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6797. |
Yang, Y., J. P. Tang, S. Y. Wang, and G. Liu, 2018: Differential impacts of 1.5°C and 2°C warming on extreme events over China using statistically downscaled and bias-corrected CESM low-warming experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(18), 9852−9860, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079272. |
Yu, R., P. M. Zhai, and Y. Y. Lu, 2018: Implications of differential effects between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation extremes in China’s urban agglomerations. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 2374−2385, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5340. |
Yu, S., and Coauthors, 2019: Loss of work productivity in a warming world: Differences between developed and developing countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 208, 1219−1225, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.067. |
Zelinka, M. D., T. A. Myers, D. T. McCoy, S. Po-Chedley, P. M. Caldwell, P. Ceppi, S. A. Klein, and K. E. Taylor, 2020: Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL085782, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782. |
Zhang, G. W., G. Zeng, C. Li, and X. Y. Yang, 2020a: Impact of PDO and AMO on interdecadal variability in extreme high temperatures in North China over the most recent 40-year period. Climate Dynamics, 54(5), 3003−3020, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05155-z. |
Zhang, G. W., G. Zeng, V. Iyakaremye, and Q.-L. You, 2020b: Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming. Advances in Climate Change Research, 11(3), 198−209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2020.08.003. |
Zhao, S. Y., T. J. Zhou, and X. L. Chen, 2020: Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets. Climate Dynamics, 54(3−4), 2465−2479, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05128-2. |
Zhou, T. J., N. Sun, W. X. Zhang, X. L. Chen, D. D. Peng, D. H. Li, L. W. Ren, and M. ZUO, 2018: When and how will the Millennium Silk Road witness 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds? Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 11(2), 180−188, https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2018.1440134. |
Zhou, T. J., and Coauthors, 2020: Development of climate and earth system models in China: Past achievements and new CMIP6 results. Journal of Meteorological Research, 34(1), 1−19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-9164-0. |
Zhu, H. H., Z. H. Jiang, J. Li, W. Li, C. X. Sun, and L. Li, 2020: Does CMIP6 inspire more confidence in simulating climate extremes over China? Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1119−1132, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9289-1. |