doi:10.1007/s00376-015-5117-4

Adler R. F., G. J. Gu, J. J. Wang, G. J. Huffman, S. Curtis, and D. Bolvin, 2008: Relationships between global precipitation and surface temperature on interannual and longer timescales (1979-2006). J. Geophys. Res., 113,D22104, doi: 10.1029/ 2008jd010536.10.1029/2008JD010536

0ae31b8633ebe768fc4b96203e9ac10b

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2008JD010536%2Fpdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008JD010536/pdf[1] Associations between global and regional precipitation and surface temperature anomalies on interannual and longer timescales are explored for the period of 1979-2006 using the GPCP precipitation product and the NASA-GISS surface temperature data set. Positive (negative) correlations are generally confirmed between these two variables over tropical oceans (lands). ENSO is the dominant factor in these interannual tropical relations. Away from the tropics, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes, this correlation relationship becomes much more complicated with positive and negative values of correlation tending to appear over both ocean and land, with a strong seasonal variation in the correlation patterns. Relationships between long-term linear changes in global precipitation and surface temperature are also assessed. Most intense long-term, linear changes in annual-mean rainfall during the data record tend to be within the tropics. For surface temperature however, the strongest linear changes are observed in the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes, with much weaker temperature changes in the tropical region and Southern Hemisphere. Finally, the ratios between the linear changes in zonal-mean rainfall and temperature anomalies over the period are estimated. Globally, the calculation results in a +2.3%/掳C precipitation change, although the magnitude is sensitive to small errors in the precipitation data set and to the length of record used for the calculation. The long-term temperature-precipitation relations are also compared to the interannual variations of the same ratio in a zonally averaged sense and are shown to have similar profiles, except for over tropical land areas.

Adler, R. F., Coauthors, 2003: The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). Journal of Hydrometeorology,4, 1147-1167, doi: 10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:Tvgpcp>2.0.Co;2.10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2

da93b1fc-b7a5-4835-8f5e-baf989c8f1f0

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F23837598_The_Version_2_Global_Precipitation_Climatology_Project_%28GPCP%29_Monthly_Precipitation_Analysis_%281979-Present%29

refpaperuri:(6d3afea98ce646aaa127cb18ee109d24)

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/23837598_The_Version_2_Global_Precipitation_Climatology_Project_(GPCP)_Monthly_Precipitation_Analysis_(1979-Present)The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version-2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.517 latitude 17 2.517 longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit satellite infrared data, and surface rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The dataset is extended back into the premicrowave era (before mid-1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the rain gauge analysis. The dataset archive also contains the individual input fields, a combined satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products, including those at finer temporal resolution. The 23-yr GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

Allen M. R., W. J. Ingram, 2002: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature,419, 224-232, doi: 10.1038/nature01092.10.1038/nature01092

12226677

d36cb8fff86528506cbfbb2dba315692

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Fnature%2Fjournal%2Fv419%2Fn6903%2Fabs%2Fnature01092.html

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v419/n6903/abs/nature01092.htmlABSTRACT What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective, probability-based climate forecast, and this task will require a new generation of climate modelling experiments, systematically exploring the range of model behaviour that is consistent with observations. It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.

Chadwick R., I. Boutle, and G. Martin, 2013: Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: Why the rich do not get richer in the tropics. J. Climate,26, 3803-3822, doi: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00543.1.10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00543.1

b132daabaacdff5ceecfe254b7c05bdf

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F277490779_Spatial_Patterns_of_Precipitation_Change_in_CMIP5_Why_the_Rich_Do_Not_Get_Richer_in_the_Tropics

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/277490779_Spatial_Patterns_of_Precipitation_Change_in_CMIP5_Why_the_Rich_Do_Not_Get_Richer_in_the_TropicsAbstract Changes in the patterns of tropical precipitation ( P ) and circulation are analyzed in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. A robust weakening of the tropical circulation is seen across models, associated with a divergence feedback that acts to reduce convection most in areas of largest climatological ascent. This is in contrast to the convergence feedback seen in interannual variability of tropical precipitation patterns. The residual pattern of convective mass-flux change is associated with shifts in convergence zones due to mechanisms such as SST gradient change, and this is often locally larger than the weakening due to the divergence feedback. A simple framework is constructed to separate precipitation change into components based on different mechanisms and to relate it directly to circulation change. While the tropical mean increase in precipitation is due to the residual between the positive thermodynamic change due to increased specific humidity and the decreased convective mass flux due to the weakening of the circulation, the spatial patterns of these two components largely cancel each other out. The rich-get-richer mechanism of greatest precipitation increases in ascent regions is almost negated by this cancellation, explaining why the spatial correlation between climatological P and the climate change anomaly 螖 P is only 0.2 over the tropics for the CMIP5 multimodel mean. This leaves the spatial pattern of precipitation change to be dominated by the component associated with shifts in convergence zones, both in the multimodel mean and intermodel uncertainty, with the component due to relative humidity change also becoming important over land.

Chou C., J. C. H. Chiang, C. W. Lan, C. H. Chung, Y. C. Liao, and C. J. Lee, 2013: Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation. Nature Geoscience ,6, 263-267, doi:10.1038/ngeo1744.10.1038/ngeo1744

d7531a89822021d5e4345940ab8f11a7

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Fngeo%2Fjournal%2Fv6%2Fn4%2Fabs%2Fngeo1744.html

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n4/abs/ngeo1744.htmlGlobal temperatures have risen over the past few decades. The water vapour content of the atmosphere has increased as a result, strengthening the global hydrological cycle. This, in turn, has led to wet regions getting wetter, and dry regions drier. Climate model simulations suggest that a similar intensification of existing patterns may also apply to the seasonal cycle of rainfall. Here, we analyse regional and global trends in seasonal precipitation extremes over the past three decades, using a number of global and land-alone observational data sets. We show that globally the annual range of precipitation has increased, largely because wet seasons have become wetter. Although the magnitude of the shift is uncertain, largely owing to limitations inherent in the data sets used, the sign of the tendency is robust. On a regional scale, the tendency for wet seasons to get wetter occurs over climatologically rainier regions. Similarly, the tendency for dry season to get drier is seen in drier regions. Even if the total amount of annual rainfall does not change significantly, the enhancement in the seasonal precipitation cycle could have marked consequences for the frequency of droughts and floods.

Cubasch U., Coauthors, 2001: Projections of future climate change. Chapter 9, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 524- 582.10.1093/ije/dyg059

7f26c0988aeed4f60fa0541757634ed8

http%3A%2F%2Fije.oxfordjournals.org%2Fcontent%2F32%2F2%2F321.full

http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/2/321.fullClimate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Book review] - LSHTM Research Online | London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Dai A. G., J. H. Wang, P. W. Thorne, D. E. Parker, L. Haimberger, and X. L. Wang, 2011: A new approach to homogenize daily radiosonde humidity data. J. Climate,24, 965-991, doi: 10.1175/2010jcli3816.1.10.1175/2010JCLI3816.1

b477bd397bf78c862a9cae980602b126

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F249644493_A_New_Approach_to_Homogenize_Daily_Radiosonde_Humidity_Data

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/249644493_A_New_Approach_to_Homogenize_Daily_Radiosonde_Humidity_DataAbstract Radiosonde humidity records represent the only in situ observations of tropospheric water vapor content with multidecadal length and quasi-global coverage. However, their use has been hampered by ubiquitous and large discontinuities resulting from changes to instrumentation and observing practices. Here a new approach is developed to homogenize historical records of tropospheric (up to 100 hPa) dewpoint depression (DPD), the archived radiosonde humidity parameter. Two statistical tests are used to detect changepoints, which are most apparent in histograms and occurrence frequencies of the daily DPD: a variant of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test for changes in distributions and the penalized maximal F test (PMFred) for mean shifts in the occurrence frequency for different bins of DPD. These tests capture most of the apparent discontinuities in the daily DPD data, with an average of 8.6 changepoints (651 changepoint per 5 yr) in each of the analyzed radiosonde records, which begin as early as the 1950s and ended in March 2009. Before applying breakpoint adjustments, artificial sampling effects are first adjusted by estimating missing DPD reports for cold ( T < 6130°C) and dry (DPD artificially set to 30°C) conditions using empirical relationships at each station between the anomalies of air temperature and vapor pressure derived from recent observations when DPD reports are available under these conditions. Next, the sampling-adjusted DPD is detrended separately for each of the 4–10 quantile categories and then adjusted using a quantile-matching algorithm so that the earlier segments have histograms comparable to that of the latest segment. Neither the changepoint detection nor the adjustment uses a reference series given the stability of the DPD series. Using this new approach, a homogenized global, twice-daily DPD dataset (available online at www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/ ) is created for climate and other applications based on the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) and two other data sources. The adjusted-daily DPD has much smaller and spatially more coherent trends during 1973–2008 than the raw data. It implies only small changes in relative humidity in the lower and middle troposphere. When combined with homogenized radiosonde temperature, other atmospheric humidity variables can be calculated, and these exhibit spatially more coherent trends than without the DPD homogenization. The DPD adjustment yields a different pattern of change in humidity parameters compared to the apparent trends from the raw data. The adjusted estimates show an increase in tropospheric water vapor globally.

Davis S. M., K. H. Rosenlof, 2012: A multidiagnostic intercomparison of tropical-width time series using reanalyses and satellite observations. J. Climate,25, 1061-1078, doi: 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00127.1.10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00127.1

24f05a7c1dfc955811c2d0ebcc43df09

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F220000722_A_Multidiagnostic_Intercomparison_of_Tropical-Width_Time_Series_Using_Reanalyses_and_Satellite_Observations

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/220000722_A_Multidiagnostic_Intercomparison_of_Tropical-Width_Time_Series_Using_Reanalyses_and_Satellite_ObservationsAbstract Poleward migration of the latitudinal edge of the tropics of 0.25°–3.0° decade 611 has been reported in several recent studies based on satellite and radiosonde data and reanalysis output covering the past ~30 yr. The goal of this paper is to identify the extent to which this large range of trends can be explained by the use of different data sources, time periods, and edge definitions, as well as how the widening varies as a function of hemisphere and season. Toward this end, a suite of tropical edge latitude diagnostics based on tropopause height, winds, precipitation–evaporation, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are analyzed using several reanalyses and satellite datasets. These diagnostics include both previously used definitions and new definitions designed for more robust detection. The wide range of widening trends is shown to be primarily due to the use of different datasets and edge definitions and only secondarily due to varying start–end dates. This study also shows that the large trends (>~1° decade 611 ) previously reported in tropopause and OLR diagnostics are due to the use of subjective definitions based on absolute thresholds. Statistically significant Hadley cell expansion based on the mean meridional streamfunction of 1.0°–1.5° decade 611 is found in three of four reanalyses that cover the full time period (1979–2009), whereas other diagnostics yield trends of 610.5°–0.8° decade 611 that are mostly insignificant. There are indications of hemispheric and seasonal differences in the trends, but the differences are not statistically significant.

Dessler A. E., S. M. Davis, 2010: Trends in tropospheric humidity from reanalysis systems. J. Geophys. Res., 115,D19127, doi: 10.1029/2010jd014192.10.1029/2010JD014192

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2010JD014192%2Fpdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD014192/pdf[1] A recent paper (Paltridge et al., 2009) found that specific humidity in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis declined between 1973 and 2007, particularly in the tropical mid and upper troposphere, the region that plays the key role in the water vapor feedback. If borne out, this result suggests potential problems in the consensus view of a positive water vapor feedback. Here we consider whether this result holds in other reanalyses and what time scale of climate fluctuation is associated with the negative specific humidity trends. The five reanalyses analyzed here (the older NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalyses and the more modern Japanese Reanalysis (JRA), Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)-interim reanalyses) unanimously agree that specific humidity generally increases in response to short-term climate variations (e.g., El Niño). In response to decadal climate fluctuations, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is unique in showing decreases in tropical mid and upper tropospheric specific humidity as the climate warms. All of the other reanalyses show that decadal warming is accompanied by increases in mid and upper tropospheric specific humidity. We conclude from this that it is doubtful that these negative long-term specific humidity trends in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis are realistic for several reasons. First, the newer reanalyses include improvements specifically designed to increase the fidelity of long-term trends in their parameters, so the positive trends found there should be more reliable than in the older reanalyses. Second, all of the reanalyses except the NCEP/NCAR assimilate satellite radiances rather than being solely dependent on radiosonde humidity measurements to constrain upper tropospheric humidity. Third, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis exhibits a large bias in tropical upper tropospheric specific humidity. And finally, we point out that there exists no theoretical support for having a positive short-term water vapor feedback and a negative long-term one.

Durre I., C. N. Williams Jr., X. G. Yin, and R. S. Vose, 2009: Radiosonde-based trends in precipitable water over the Northern Hemisphere: An update. J. Geophys. Res., 114,D05112, doi: 10.1029/2008jd010989.10.1029/2008JD010989

ce6b8f849b62e9ee92923cc5525e3331

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2008JD010989%2Fpdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008JD010989/pdfABSTRACT [1] In an effort to update previous analyses of long-term changes in column-integrated water vapor, we have analyzed trends in surface-to-500-hPa precipitable water (PW) calculated from radiosonde measurements of dew point depression, temperature, and pressure at approximately 300 stations in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1973–2006. Inhomogeneities were addressed by applying a homogenization algorithm that adjusts for both documented and undocumented change points. The trends of the adjusted PW time series are predominantly upward, with a statistically significant trend of 0.45 mm decade鈭1 for the Northern Hemisphere land areas included in the analysis. Particularly significant increases are found in all seasons over the islands of the western tropical Pacific, and trends are also positive and statistically significant for the year as a whole and in at least one season in Japan and the United States. These results indicate that the widespread increases in tropospheric water vapor, which earlier studies had reported and shown to be physically consistent with concurrent increases in temperature and changes in moisture transport, have continued in recent years.

Hartmann, D. L., Coauthors, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and surface. Chapter 2, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 159- 254.45d2d09c1905a19471963286594d9596

http%3A%2F%2Feprints.soton.ac.uk%2F363409%2F

http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/363409/It is virtually certain that atmospheric burdens of long-lived greenhouse gases controlled by the Kyoto 6 Protocol increased from 2005 to 2011. Annual increases in global mean CO2 and N2O mole fractions were at 7 rates comparable to those

Held I. M., B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate,19, 5686-5699, doi: 10.1175/jcli3990.1.10.1175/JCLI3990.1

cdbeb87fdb1d4a8e38d603c2100e3e38

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F216811659_Robust_responses_of_the_hydrological_cycle_to_global_warming

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/216811659_Robust_responses_of_the_hydrological_cycle_to_global_warmingUsing the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor.

Hu Y., Q. Fu, 2007: Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,7, 5229-5236, doi: 10.5194/acp-7-5229-2007.10.5194/acp-7-5229-2007

f92774e6dc7cd5138089aeb8cfea6703

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oalib.com%2Fpaper%2F2705445

http://www.oalib.com/paper/2705445Using three meteorological reanalyses and three outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) datasets, we show that the Hadley circulation has a significant poleward expansion of about 2 to 4.5 degrees of latitude since 1979. The three reanalyses along with the MSU data all indicate that the poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation in each hemisphere occurs during its spring and fall seasons. Results from the OLR datasets do not have such seasonality. The expansion of the Hadley circulation implies a poleward expansion of the band of subtropical subsidence, leading to enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming and poleward shifts of the subtropical dry zone. This would contribute to an increased frequency of midlatitude droughts in both hemispheres.

Jones P. D., A. Moberg, 2003: Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Climate.,16, 206-223, doi: 10.1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<0206:HALSSA>2.0.CO;2.0732506b08922bc173486c908dc3897e

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bioone.org%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Dbibr14%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1603%252FEN12004%26key%3D10.1175%252F1520-0442%282003%29016%3C0206%253AHALSSA%3E2.0.CO%253B2

/s?wd=paperuri%3A%2849bf21a9d33213a8c2ce8176c2dabf99%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bioone.org%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Dbibr14%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1603%252FEN12004%26key%3D10.1175%252F1520-0442%282003%29016%253C0206%253AHALSSA%253E2.0.CO%253B2&ie=utf-8

Lau K. M., H. T. Wu, 2011: Climatology and changes in tropical oceanic rainfall characteristics inferred from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2009). J. Geophys. Res., 116,D17111, doi: 10.1029/2011jd015827.

Liu C. L., R. P. Allan, 2013: Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850-2100. Environmental Research Letters,8, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/ 034002.10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034002

ec7b2928370b7c1f679262990e72cad5

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F258310283_Observed_and_simulated_precipitation_responses_in_wet_and_dry_regions_18502100

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/258310283_Observed_and_simulated_precipitation_responses_in_wet_and_dry_regions_18502100over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming.

Liu S. C., C. B. Fu, C. J. Shiu, J. P. Chen, and F. T. Wu, 2009: Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36,L17702, doi: 10.1029/2009gl040218.10.1029/2009GL040218

7fc4c124049b963e1fd0f4ae1b169d9d

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2009GL040218%2Fpdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL040218/pdf[1] Data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) covering the period 1979–2007 are examined for changes of precipitation extremes as a function of global mean temperature by using a new method which focuses on interannual differences rather than time series. We find that the top 10% bin of precipitation intensity increases by about 95% for each degree Kelvin (K) increase in global mean temperature, while 30%–60% bins decrease by about 20% K 611 . The global average precipitation intensity increases by about 23% K 611 , substantially greater than the increase of about 7% K 611 in atmospheric water-holding capacity estimated by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The large increase of precipitation intensity is qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that the precipitation intensity should increase by more than 7% K 611 because of the additional latent heat released from the increased moisture. Our results also provide an independent evidence in support for significant increases in the number and/or size of strong global tropical cyclones. However an ensemble of 17 latest generation climate models estimates an increase of only about 2% K 611 in precipitation intensity, about one order of magnitude smaller than our value, suggesting that the risk of extreme precipitation events due to global warming is substantially greater than that estimated by the climate models.

Mitchell J. F. B., C. A. Wilson, and W. M. Cunnington, 1987: On CO₂ climate sensitivity and model dependence of results. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,113, 293-322, doi: 10.1002/qj. 49711347517.

Mitchell T. D., P. D. Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol.,25, 693-712, doi: 10.1002/joc.1181.10.1002/joc.1181

0f194954-5819-43dc-b41b-3f33468186f8

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fjoc.1181%2Ffull

refpaperuri:(78be421d406bf2ba03588b47130e7227)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1181/fullThe station anomalies are interpolated onto a 0.5° grid covering the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) and combined with a published normal from 1961–90. Thus, climate grids are constructed for nine climate variables (temperature, diurnal temperature range, daily minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, wet-day frequency, frost-day frequency, vapour pressure, and cloud cover) for the period 1901–2002. This dataset is known as CRU TS 2.1 and is publicly available ( TODO: clickthrough URL http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ ). Copyright 08 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

Rienecker, M. M., Coauthors, 2011: MERRA: NASA's modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. J. Climate,24, 3624-3648, doi: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00015.1.10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1

3b612fb0-1712-4506-b41a-cfbac805c70b

77f9cd9581413873913e660fd64c074f

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/258496364_MERRA_NASA's_modern-era_retrospective_analysis_for_research_and_application

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/258496364_MERRA_NASA's_modern-era_retrospective_analysis_for_research_and_applicationAbstract The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) was undertaken by NASA-檚 Global Modeling and Assimilation Office with two primary objectives: to place observations from NASA-檚 Earth Observing System satellites into a climate context and to improve upon the hydrologic cycle represented in earlier generations of reanalyses. Focusing on the satellite era, from 1979 to the present, MERRA has achieved its goals with significant improvements in precipitation and water vapor climatology. Here, a brief overview of the system and some aspects of its performance, including quality assessment diagnostics from innovation and residual statistics, is given. By comparing MERRA with other updated reanalyses [the interim version of the next ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)], advances made in this new generation of reanalyses, as well as remaining deficiencies, are identified. Although there is little difference between the new reanalyses in many aspects of climate variability, substantial differences remain in poorly constrained quantities such as precipitation and surface fluxes. These differences, due to variations both in the models and in the analysis techniques, are an important measure of the uncertainty in reanalysis products. It is also found that all reanalyses are still quite sensitive to observing system changes. Dealing with this sensitivity remains the most pressing challenge for the next generation of reanalyses. Production has now caught up to the current period and MERRA is being continued as a near-real-time climate analysis. The output is available online through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC).

Santer, B. D., Coauthors, 2007: Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,104, 15248-15253, doi: 10.1073/pnas. 0702872104.10.1073/pnas.0702872104

17881573

a2485c8cfb10218844e7add2e1385972

http%3A%2F%2Fmed.wanfangdata.com.cn%2FPaper%2FDetail%2FPeriodicalPaper_PM17881573

http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM17881573Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m 2 per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated “fingerprint” pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint “match” is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.

Schneider U., A. Becker, P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer M. Ziese, and B. Rudolf, 2014: GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor. Appl. Climatol.,115, 15-40, doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x.10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x

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http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00704-013-0860-x

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/XREF?id=10.1007/s00704-013-0860-xIn 1989, the need for reliable gridded land surface prec

Seager R., Coauthors, 2007: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science,316, 1181-1184, doi: 10.1126/science.1139601.10.1126/science.1139601

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http%3A%2F%2Fmed.wanfangdata.com.cn%2FPaper%2FDetail%2FPeriodicalPaper_PM17412920

refpaperuri:(e7900f17f2c35e0b75927f9889caa60f)

http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM17412920ABSTRACT How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

Shiu C. J., S. C. Liu, C. B. Fu, A. G. Dai, and Y. Sun, 2012: How much do precipitation extremes change in a warming climate? Geophys. Res. Lett., 39,L17707, doi: 10.1029/2012 gl052762.10.1029/2012GL052762

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2012GL052762%2Fpdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL052762/pdfAbstract Top of page Abstract 1.Introduction 2.Concerns About the GPCP Data 3.Data 4.Results and Discussion 5.Conclusions Acknowledgments References Supporting Information [1] Daily data from reanalyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are analyzed to study changes in precipitation intensity with respect to global mean temperature. The results are in good agreement with those derived from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data by Liu et al. (2009), providing an independent verification for large changes in the precipitation extremes: about 100% increase for the annual top 10% heavy precipitation and about 20% decrease for the light and moderate precipitation for one degree warming in the global temperature. These changes can substantially increase the risk of floods as well as droughts, thus severely affecting the global ecosystems. Atmospheric models used in the reanalysis mode, with the benefit of observed wind and moisture fields, appear to be capable of realistically simulating the change of precipitation intensity with global temperature. In comparison, coupled climate models are capable of simulating the shape of the change in precipitation intensity, but underestimate the magnitude of the change by about one order of magnitude. The most likely reason of the underestimation is that the typical spatial resolution of climate models is too coarse to resolve atmospheric convection.

Smith T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Climate,21, 2283-2296, doi: 10.1175/2007jcli2100.1.

Stachnik J. P., C. Schumacher, 2011: A comparison of the Hadley circulation in modern reanalyses. J. Geophys. Res., 116,D22102, doi: 10.1029/2011jd016677.

Sun Y., S. Solomon, A. G. Dai, and R. W. Portmann, 2007: How often will it rain? J. Climate,20, 4801-4818, doi: 10.1175/ jcli4263.1.b7579256-02d0-4c6d-bc0a-900731395875

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refpaperuri:(85a2ebe0c847b88e326cd65a0edaf61b)

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Tokinaga H., S. P. Xie, C. Deser, Y. Kosaka, and Y. M. Okumura, 2012: Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming. Nature,491, 439-444, doi: 10.1038/nature11576.10.1038/nature11576

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http%3A%2F%2Fmed.wanfangdata.com.cn%2FPaper%2FDetail%2FPeriodicalPaper_PM23151588

http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM23151588Global mean sea surface temperature (SST) has risen steadily over the past century, but the overall pattern contains extensive and often uncertain spatial variations, with potentially important effects on regional precipitation. Observations suggest a slowdown of the zonal atmospheric overturning circulation above the tropical Pacific Ocean (the Walker circulation) over the twentieth century. Although this change has been attributed to a muted hydrological cycle forced by global warming, the effect of SST warming patterns has not been explored and quantified. Here we perform experiments using an atmospheric model, and find that SST warming patterns are the main cause of the weakened Walker circulation over the past six decades (1950-2009). The SST trend reconstructed from bucket-sampled SST and night-time marine surface air temperature features a reduced zonal gradient in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean, a change consistent with subsurface temperature observations. Model experiments with this trend pattern robustly simulate the observed changes, including the Walker circulation slowdown and the eastward shift of atmospheric convection from the Indonesian maritime continent to the central tropical Pacific. Our results cannot establish whether the observed changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic global warming, but they do show that the observed slowdown in the Walker circulation is presumably driven by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes.

Trenberth K. E., A. G. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.,84, 1205-1217, doi: 10.1175/bams-84-9-1205.10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F235640653_The_changing_character_of_precipitation

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/235640653_The_changing_character_of_precipitationAbstract From a societal, weather, and climate perspective, precipitation intensity, duration, frequency, and phase are as much of concern as total amounts, as these factors determine the disposition of precipitation once it hits the ground and how much runs off. At the extremes of precipitation incidence are the events that give rise to floods and droughts, whose changes in occurrence and severity have an enormous impact on the environment and society. Hence, advancing understanding and the ability to model and predict the character of precipitation is vital but requires new approaches to examining data and models. Various mechanisms, storms and so forth, exist to bring about precipitation. Because the rate of precipitation, conditional on when it falls, greatly exceeds the rate of replenishment of moisture by surface evaporation, most precipitation comes from moisture already in the atmosphere at the time the storm begins, and transport of moisture by the storm-scale circulation into the storm is vital. Hence, the intensity of precipitation depends on available moisture, especially for heavy events. As climate warms, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, which is governed by the Clausius- Clapeyron equation, is expected to rise much faster than the total precipitation amount, which is governed by the surface heat budget through evaporation. This implies that the main changes to be experienced are in the character of precipitation: increases in intensity must be offset by decreases in duration or frequency of events. The timing, duration, and intensity of precipitation can be systematically explored via the diurnal cycle, whose correct simulation in models remains an unsolved challenge of vital importance in global climate change. Typical problems include the premature initiation of convection, and precipitation events that are too light and too frequent. These challenges in observations, modeling, and understanding precipitation changes are being taken up in the NCAR -淲ater Cycle Across Scales- initiative, which will exploit the diurnal cycle as a test bed for a hierarchy of models to promote improvements in models. *The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

Trenberth K. E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor. Climate Dyn.,24, 741-758, doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4.10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.springerlink.com%2Fcontent%2Fv164l177374p1445%2F

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/XREF?id=10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4An analysis and evaluation has been performed of global datasets on column-integrated water vapor (precipitable water). For years before 1996, the Ross and Elliott radiosonde dataset is used for valid

Trenberth, K. E., Coauthors, 2007: Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. Chapter 9, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 747- 845.

Vecchi G. A., B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Climate,20, 4316-4340, doi: 10.1175/jcli4258.1.10.1175/JCLI4258.1

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F228346026_Global_warming_and_the_weakening_of_tropical_circulation

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/228346026_Global_warming_and_the_weakening_of_tropical_circulationAbstract This study examines the response of the tropical atmospheric and oceanic circulation to increasing greenhouse gases using a coordinated set of twenty-first-century climate model experiments performed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The strength of the atmospheric overturning circulation decreases as the climate warms in all IPCC AR4 models, in a manner consistent with the thermodynamic scaling arguments of Held and Soden. The weakening occurs preferentially in the zonally asymmetric (i.e., Walker) rather than zonal-mean (i.e., Hadley) component of the tropical circulation and is shown to induce substantial changes to the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical oceans. Evidence suggests that the overall circulation weakens by decreasing the frequency of strong updrafts and increasing the frequency of weak updrafts, although the robustness of this behavior across all models cannot be confirmed because of the lack of data. As the climate warms, changes in both the atmospheric and ocean circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean resemble “El Ni09o–like” conditions; however, the mechanisms are shown to be distinct from those of El Ni09o and are reproduced in both mixed layer and full ocean dynamics coupled climate models. The character of the Indian Ocean response to global warming resembles that of Indian Ocean dipole mode events. The consensus of model results presented here is also consistent with recently detected changes in sea level pressure since the mid–nineteenth century.

Vecchi G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature,441, 73-76, doi: 10.1038/nature04744.10.1038/nature04744

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http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM16672967Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean--driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east--known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

Vose R. S., R. L. Schmoyer, P. M. Steurer, T. Peterson, R. Heim, T. Karl, and J. Eischeid, 1992: The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-Term Monthly Temperature, Precipitation, Sea Level Pressure, and Station Pressure Data. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN.,325 pp, doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/ cli.ndp041.10.2172/10178730

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F239882016_The_global_historical_climatology_network_Long-term_monthly_temperature_precipitation_and_pressure_data

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/239882016_The_global_historical_climatology_network_Long-term_monthly_temperature_precipitation_and_pressure_dataInterest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE`s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA`s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0).

Yu B., F. W. Zwiers, 2010: Changes in equatorial atmospheric zonal circulations in recent decades. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 37,L05701, doi:10.1029/2009gl042071.10.1029/2009GL042071

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL042071/pdf[1] The equatorial zonal circulation is characterized by the atmospheric mass flux, and is calculated using the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis products. A speed-up of the equatorial circulations over the Atlantic and Indian oceans is found in recent decades in both reanalyses, in conjunction with a slow-down of the Pacific Walker circulation. These changes in the equatorial circulations are consistent with changes in dynamically related heating in the tropics, and with observed changes in precipitation.

Zhao H. X., G. W. K. Moore, 2008: Trends in the boreal summer regional Hadley and Walker circulations as expressed in precipitation records from Asia and Africa during the latter half of the 20th century. International Journal of Climatology,28, 563-578, doi: 10.1002/Joc.1580.10.1002/joc.1580

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fjoc.1580%2Fabstract

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1580/abstractAbstract West African summer rainfall, north China summer rainfall and a new climate proxy, snow accumulation from the Dasuopu ice core in the southern Himalaya, have all experienced decreasing trends during the latter half of the 20th century. In this paper, we investigate the existence of a common mechanism that explains these geographically dispersed trends during the boreal summer. In particular, we explore the hypothesis that these trends are related to changes in the regional Hadley and Walker circulations. We show that the divergent circulation in the NCEP reanalysis indicates the existence of trends in these circulations that are consistent with the observed changes in the precipitation records. In addition, the regressions of the divergent circulation in the NCEP reanalysis against these precipitation records indicate that a similar globally coherent signal is associated with the time series and their linear trends while the regressions against the de-trended residuals do not contain statistically significant large-scale signals. These similarities lead us to conclude that the decreasing trends in the three precipitation time series during the latter half of the 20th century are consistent with large-scale changes in the global overturning circulation during the boreal summer. Copyright 漏 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

Zhou Y. P., K. M. Xu, Y. C. Sud, and A. K. Betts, 2011: Recent trends of the tropical hydrological cycle inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data. J. Geophys. Res. , 116,D09101, doi:10.1029/2010jd015197.10.1029/2010JD015197

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2010JD015197%2Fabstract

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD015197/abstractABSTRACT