doi:10.1007/s00376-015-5112-9

Collins M., Coauthors , 2013: Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility,1029-1136. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker, et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Domingues C. M., J. A. Church, N. J. White, P. J. Gleckler, S. E. Wijffels, P. M. Barker, and J. R. Dunn, 2008: Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature, 453, 1090- 1093.10.1038/nature07080

18563162

6fe20a5b17ee186080d378d90d2aa56f

http%3A%2F%2Fmed.wanfangdata.com.cn%2FPaper%2FDetail%2FPeriodicalPaper_PM18563162

http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM18563162Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures

Emanuel K. A., 2001: The contribution of tropical cyclones to meridional heat transport by the oceans. J. Geophys. Res., 106( D14), 14 771- 14 781.10.1029/2000JD900641

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2000JD900641%2Fcitedby

refpaperuri:(d3adce3e4d8b39e8708b816537a8c882)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000JD900641/citedbyTropical cyclones mix warm surface waters with cooler water within the thermocline, leaving pronounced, cold wakes that over a period of weeks are restored to normal conditions by mixing and surface fluxes. This restoration is associated with net, vertically integrated heating of ocean columns, which in statistical equilibrium must be balanced by oceanic heat transport out of the regions affected by the storms. Observed tropical cyclone tracks together with coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane models are used to estimate the net ocean heating induced by global tropical cyclone activity during one calendar year (1996). This estimate, amounting to (1.4-0.7) l0 15 W, represents a substantial fraction of the observed peak poleward heat flux by the oceans, suggesting that tropical cyclones may play an important role in driving the thermohaline circulation and thereby in regulating climate. In particular, the strong sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to tropical ocean temperatures in turn implies that the net poleward heat flux by the ocean is sensitive to tropical temperature, reducing tropical climate sensitivity and increasing climate sensitivity at higher latitudes.

Goni G., Coauthors , 2009: Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. Oceanography, 22, 190- 197.10.5670/oceanog.2009.78

00661d113d945733ba1edb9077fa038e

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oalib.com%2Fpaper%2F2638798

http://www.oalib.com/paper/2638798Sudden tropical cyclone (TC) intensification has been linked with high values of upper ocean heat content contained in mesoscale features, particularly warm ocean eddies, provided that atmospheric conditions are also favorable. Although understanding of air-sea interaction for TCs is evolving, this manuscript summarizes some of the current work being carried out to investigate the role that the upper ocean plays in TC intensification and the use of ocean parameters in forecasting TC intensity.

Gray W. M., 1979: Hurricanes: Their formation, structure, and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, D. B. Shaw, Eds., James Glaisher House, 155- 218.9921eca363aa4331ce74bee158f1c4d2

http%3A%2F%2Fprofiles.wizfolio.com%2FASSGLibrarian%2Fgroups%2F253%2F129663%2F

http://profiles.wizfolio.com/ASSGLibrarian/groups/253/129663/

Huang P., I. -I. Lin, C. Chou, and R. H. Huang, 2015: Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming. Nature Communications, 6,7188, doi: 10.1038/ncomms8188.10.1038/ncomms8188

25982028

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpubmed%2F25982028

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25982028Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas.

Ishii M., M. Kimoto, 2009: Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections. Journal Oceanography, 65, 287- 299.10.1007/s10872-009-0027-7

944ce014b0ad4eb548043388f33f5e61

http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs10872-009-0027-7

http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10872-009-0027-7As reported in former studies, temperature observations obtained by expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) and mechanical bathythermographs (MBTs) appear to have positive biases as much as they affect major climate signals. These biases have not been fully taken into account in previous ocean temperature analyses, which have been widely used to detect global warming signals in the oceans. This report proposes a methodology for directly eliminating the biases from the XBT and MBT observations. In the case of XBT observation, assuming that the positive temperature biases mainly originate from greater depths given by conventional XBT fall-rate equations than the truth, a depth bias equation is constructed by fitting depth differences between XBT data and more accurate oceanographic observations to a linear equation of elapsed time. Such depth bias equations are introduced separately for each year and for each probe type. Uncertainty in the gradient of the linear equation is evaluated using a non-parametric test. The typical depth bias is +10 m at 700 m depth on average, which is probably caused by various indeterminable sources of error in the XBT observations as well as a lack of representativeness in the fall-rate equations adopted so far. Depth biases in MBT are fitted to quadratic equations of depth in a similar manner to the XBT method. Correcting the historical XBT and MBT depth biases by these equations allows a historical ocean temperature analysis to be conducted. In comparison with the previous temperature analysis, large differences are found in the present analysis as follows: the duration of large ocean heat content in the 1970s shortens dramatically, and recent ocean cooling becomes insignificant. The result is also in better agreement with tide gauge observations.

Knutson, T. R., Coauthors , 2013: Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios. J. Climate, 26, 6591- 6617.10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

b0f4d6a8a0d6a88f3ebd063ef9686dfd

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2013JCli...26.6591K

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JCli...26.6591KABSTRACT

Large W. G., S. Yeager, 2009: The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set. Climate Dyn.,33, 341-364, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3.10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3

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refpaperuri:(31d84218ab793598b06e6948a1b5fa04)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/ADS?id=2009ClDy...33..341LThe air–sea fluxes of momentum, heat, freshwater and their components have been computed globally from 194802at frequencies ranging from 6-hourly to monthly. All fluxes are computed over the 2302years f

Leipper D. F., L. D. Volgenau, 1972: Hurricane heat potential of the Gulf of Mexico. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2, 218- 224.10.1175/1520-0485(1972)0022.0.CO;2

104e7156-9763-4be9-9734-a018253ebd92

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1972JPO.....2..218L

refpaperuri:(75eefddf10630cac0d027a6d922c68cd)

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1972JPO.....2..218LAbstract It has been demonstrated that a large input of energy from the ocean is necessary to establish and maintain hurricane force winds over the sea. However, there has been no suitable data which could serve as a basis for calculating this input. Now, observations are available to show that, early in the hurricane season, there are varying initial conditions in the Gulf of Mexico which could lead to significantly different total heat exchanges. The sea can provide some seven days of energy flow into a hurricane at some times and at some locations, but less than one day in others depending upon the amount of heat initially available in the Gulf waters. In the four summers represented by the data, a quantity defined as hurricane heat potential was found to vary from a low of 700 cal cm 2 column north of Yucatan to a high of 31,600 in the central east Gulf. Synoptic data on hurricane heat potential, if made regularly available to forecasters, might serve as a basis for improved forecasts of changes in Intensity and movement of hurricanes.

Levitus, S., Coauthors , 2012: World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000 m) 1955-2010. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10603.10.1029/2012GL051106

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.see.ed.ac.uk%2F%7Eshs%2FClimate%2520change%2FClimate%2520model%2520results%2Focean%2520temperature%2520abstract.shtml

refpaperuri:(997dff964be1d2bed33af81c901cbf39)

http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Climate%20model%20results/ocean%20temperature%20abstract.shtml

Lin I. -I., C. -C. Wu, I. -F. Pun, and D. -S. Ko, 2008: Upper-ocean thermal structure and the western North Pacific category 5 typhoons. Part I: Ocean features and the category 5 typhoons閳ワ拷 intensification. Mon. Wea. Rev.,136, 3288-3306, doi: 10.1175/2008MWR2277.1.10.1175/2008MWR2277.1

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2008MWRv..136.3288L

refpaperuri:(3c4fd83cda093a895c809c2113835afe)

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008MWRv..136.3288LAbstract Category 5 cyclones are the most intense and devastating cyclones on earth. With increasing observations of category 5 cyclones, such as Hurricane Katrina (2005), Rita (2005), Mitch (1998), and Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) found to intensify on warm ocean features (i.e., regions of positive sea surface height anomalies detected by satellite altimeters), there is great interest in investigating the role ocean features play in the intensification of category 5 cyclones. Based on 13 yr of satellite altimetry data, in situ and climatological upper-ocean thermal structure data, best-track typhoon data of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center, together with an ocean mixed layer model, 30 western North Pacific category 5 typhoons that occurred during the typhoon season from 1993 to 2005 are systematically examined in this study. Two different types of situations are found. The first type is the situation found in the western North Pacific south eddy zone (SEZ; 21°–26°N, 127°–170°E) and the Kuroshio (21°–30°N, 127°–170°E) region. In these regions, the background climatological warm layer is relatively shallow (typically the depth of the 26°C isotherm is around 60 m and the upper-ocean heat content is 6550 kJ cm 612 ). Therefore passing over positive features is critical to meet the ocean’s part of necessary conditions in intensification because the features can effectively deepen the warm layer (depth of the 26°C isotherm reaching 100 m and upper-ocean heat content is 65110 kJ cm 612 ) to restrain the typhoon’s self-induced ocean cooling. In the past 13 yr, 8 out of the 30 category 5 typhoons (i.e., 27%) belong to this situation. The second type is the situation found in the gyre central region (10°–21°N, 121°–170°E) where the background climatological warm layer is deep (typically the depth of the 26°C isotherm is 65105–120 m and the upper-ocean heat content is 6580–120 kJ cm 612 ). In this deep, warm background, passing over positive features is not critical since the background itself is already sufficient to restrain the self-induced cooling negative feedback during intensification.

Locarnini, R. A., Coauthors , 2013: World Ocean Atlas 2013,Vol. 1: Temperature. S. Levitus, Ed., A. Mishonov Technical Ed. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 73, 40 pp.aef995e5-cecd-4835-8873-1544f980d45a

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F252322798_World_Ocean_Atlas_2005_Vol._1_Temperature

refpaperuri:(4d3a0bbcbffa7e80129769ddb2393624)

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/252322798_World_Ocean_Atlas_2005_Vol._1_TemperatureABSTRACT This atlas consists of a description of data analysis procedures and horizontal maps of climatological distribution fields of temperature at selected standard depth levels of the World Ocean on one-degree and quarter-degree latitude-longitude grids. The aim of the maps is to illustrate large-scale characteristics of the distribution of ocean temperature. The fields used to generate these climatological maps were computed by objective analysis of all scientifically quality-controlled historical temperature data in the World Ocean Database 2013. Maps are presented for climatological composite periods (annual, seasonal, monthly, seasonal and monthly difference fields from the annual mean field, and the number of observations) at 102 standard depths.

Madec G., 2008: NEMO ocean engine. Note du P\ole de modèlisation,Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France, No 27, ISSN No 1288-1619.

Mei W., F. Primeau, J. C. McWillams, and C. Pasquero, 2013: Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110( 38), 15 207- 15 210.10.1073/pnas.1306753110

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http%3A%2F%2Fmed.wanfangdata.com.cn%2FPaper%2FDetail%2FPeriodicalPaper_PM23922393

refpaperuri:(45a5cebf97bd9009a44749a4566d9a7b)

http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM23922393Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 卤 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., 23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean-atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback.

Mei W., S. P. Xie, F. Primeau, J. C. McWilliams, and C. Pasquero, 2015: Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures. Science Advances, 1, e1500014.10.1126/sciadv.1500014

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC4640637%2F

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4640637/Ocean warming is a predicting factor for typhoon intensity. Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.

Palmer M. D., K. Haines, S. F. B. Tett, and T. J. Ansell, 2007: Isolating the signal of ocean global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23610.10.1029/2007GL031712

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2007GL031712%2Fpdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL031712/pdfIdentifying the signature of global warming in the world's oceans is challenging because low frequency circulation changes can dominate local temperature changes. The IPCC fourth assessment reported an average ocean heating rate of 0.21 卤 0.04 Wm-2 over the period 1961-2003, with considerable spatial, interannual and inter-decadal variability. We present a new analysis of millions of ocean temperature profiles designed to filter out local dynamical changes to give a more consistent view of the underlying warming. Time series of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14掳C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform. upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm-2 on average) than previous results. This new measure of ocean warming is also more robust to some sources of error in the ocean observing system. Our new analysis provides a useful addition for evaluation of coupled climate models, to the traditional fixed depth analyses. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Pun I. -F., I. -I. Lin, and M. -H. Lo, 2013: Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett.,40, 4680-4884, doi: 10.1002/grl.50548.10.1002/grl.50548

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fgrl.50548%2Fabstract

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50548/abstract[1] The Main Development Region (MDR) for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific Ocean is the most active TC region in the world. Based on synergetic analyses of satellite altimetry and gravity observations, we found that the subsurface ocean conditions in the western North Pacific MDR has become even more favorable for the intensification of typhoons and supertyphoons. Compared to the early 1990s, a 10% increase in both the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26) and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) has occurred in the MDR. In addition, the areas of high TCHP (≥ 110 kJ cm 612 ) and large D26 (≥ 110 m) have 13% and 17% increases, respectively. Because these high TCHP and large D26 regions are often associated with intensification of the most intense TCs (i.e. supertyphoons), this recent warming requires close attention and monitoring.

Shay L. K., G. J. Goni, and P. G. Black, 2000: Effects of a warm oceanic feature on hurricane Opal. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1366- 1383.10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1366:EOAWOF>2.0.CO;2

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2000MWRv..128.1366S

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000MWRv..128.1366SAbstract On 4 October 1995, Hurricane Opal deepened from 965 to 916 hPa in the Gulf of Mexico over a 14-h period upon encountering a warm core ring (WCR) in the ocean shed by the Loop Current during an upper-level atmospheric trough interaction. Based on historical hydrographic measurements placed within the context of a two-layer model and surface height anomalies (SHA) from the radar altimeter on the TOPEX mission, upper-layer thickness fields indicated the presence of two warm core rings during September and October 1995. As Hurricane Opal passed directly over one of these WCRs, the 1-min surface winds increased from 35 to more than 60 m s 611 , and the radius of maximum wind decreased from 40 to 25 km. Pre-Opal SHAs in the WCR exceeded 30 cm where the estimated depth of the 20°C isotherm was located between 175 and 200 m. Subsequent to Opal’s passage, this depth decreased approximately 50 m, which suggests upwelling underneath the storm track due to Ekman divergence. The maximum heat loss of approximately 24 Kcal cm 612 relative to depth of the 26°C isotherm was a factor of 6 times the threshold value required to sustain a hurricane. Since most of this loss occurred over a period of 14 h, the heat content loss of 24 Kcal cm 612 equates to approximately 20 kW m 612 . Previous observational findings suggest that about 10%–15% of upper-ocean cooling is due to surface heat fluxes. Estimated surface heat fluxes based upon heat content changes range from 2000 to 3000 W m 612 in accord with numerically simulated surface heat fluxes during Opal’s encounter with the WCR. Composited AVHRR-derived SSTs indicated a 2°–3°C cooling associated with vertical mixing in the along-track direction of Opal except over the WCR where AVHRR-derived and buoy-derived SSTs decreased only by about 0.5°–1°C. Thus, the WCR’s effect was to provide a regime of positive feedback to the hurricane rather than negative feedback induced by cooler waters due to upwelling and vertical mixing as observed over the Bay of Campeche and north of the WCR.

Sobel A. H., S. J. Camargo, 2011: Projected future seasonal changes in tropical summer climate. J. Climate, 24, 473-487, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3748.1.10.1175/2010JCLI3748.1

6f6b9f1e9a8a2fa5e286882b8c1cdc68

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2011JCli...24..473S

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JCli...24..473SThe authors analyze changes in the tropical sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind, and other fields from the twentieth to the twenty-first century in climate projections using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel ensemble, focusing on the seasons January--March (JFM) and July--September (JAS). When the annual mean change is subtracted, the remaining ''seasonal changes'' have robust, coherent structures. The JFM and JAS changes resemble each other very closely after either a change of sign or reflection about the equator. The seasonal changes include an increase in the summer hemisphere SST and a decrease in the winter hemisphere SST. These appear to be thermodynamic consequences of easterly trade winds strengthening in the winter subtropics and weakening in the summer subtropics. These in turn are associated with the weakening and expansion of the Hadley circulation, documented by previous studies, which themselves are likely consequences of changes in extratropical eddies. The seasonal SST changes influence the environment for deep convection: peak precipitation in the summer hemisphere increases by around 10%% and convective available potential energy (CAPE) increases by as much as 25%%. Comparable fractions of these changes are attributable to the annual mean change and the seasonal changes, though the two have very different spatial structures. Since the annual mean change is marked by relative warming in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere, the seasonal changes oppose the annual mean change in JFM and enhance it in JAS.

Sriver R. L., M. Huber, 2007: Observational evidence for an ocean heat pump induced by tropical cyclones. Nature, 447, 577- 580.10.1038/nature05785

17538617

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http%3A%2F%2Fmed.wanfangdata.com.cn%2FPaper%2FDetail%2FPeriodicalPaper_PM17538617

http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM17538617Ocean mixing affects global climate and the marine biosphere because it is linked to the ocean's ability to store and transport heat and nutrients. Observations have constrained the magnitude of upper ocean mixing associated with certain processes, but mixing rates measured directly are significantly lower than those inferred from budget analyses, suggesting that other processes may play an important role. The winds associated with tropical cyclones are known to lead to localized mixing of the upper ocean, but the hypothesis that tropical cyclones are important mixing agents at the global scale has not been tested. Here we calculate the effect of tropical cyclones on surface ocean temperatures by comparing surface temperatures before and after storm passage, and use these results to calculate the vertical mixing induced by tropical cyclone activity. Our results indicate that tropical cyclones are responsible for significant cooling and vertical mixing of the surface ocean in tropical regions. Assuming that all the heat that is mixed downwards is balanced by heat transport towards the poles, we calculate that approximately 15 per cent of peak ocean heat transport may be associated with the vertical mixing induced by tropical cyclones. Furthermore, our analyses show that the magnitude of this mixing is strongly related to sea surface temperature, indicating that future changes in tropical sea surface temperatures may have significant effects on ocean circulation and ocean heat transport that are not currently accounted for in climate models.

Taylor K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485- 498.10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2012BAMS...93..485T

refpaperuri:(102c64f576f0dc49ca552e6df691421b)

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012BAMS...93..485TThe fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.

Wada A., N. Usui, 2007: Importance of tropical cyclone heat potential for tropical cyclone intensity and intensification in the western North Pacific. Journal of Oceanography,63, 427-447, doi: 10.1007/s10872-007-0039-0.10.1007/s10872-007-0039-0

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.springerlink.com%2Findex%2FX2N4X42X55480141.pdf

http://www.springerlink.com/index/X2N4X42X55480141.pdfWhich is more important for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and intensification, sea surface temperature (SST) or tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP)? Investigations using best-track TC central pressures, TRMM/TMI three-day mean SST data, and an estimated TCHP based on oceanic reanalysis data from 1998 to 2004, show that the central pressure is more closely related to TCHP accumulated from TC formation to its mature stages than to the accumulated SST and its duration. From an oceanic environmental viewpoint, a rapid deepening of TC central pressure occurs when TCHP is relatively high on a basin scale, while composite distributions of TCHP, vertical wind shear, lower tropospheric relative humidity, and wind speed occurring in cases of rapid intensification are different for each TC season. In order to explore the influence of TCHP on TC intensity and intensification, analyses using both oceanic reanalysis data and the results of numerical simulations based on an ocean general circulation model are performed for the cases of Typhoons Chaba (2004) and Songda (2004), which took similar tracks. The decrease in TCHP due to the passage of Chaba led to the suppression of Songda鈥檚 intensity at the mature stage, while Songda maintained its intensity for a relatively long time because induced near-inertial currents due to the passage of Chaba reproduced anticyclonic warm eddies appearing on the leftside of Chaba鈥檚 track before Songda passed by. This type of intensity-sustenance process caused by the passage of a preceding TC is often found in El Ni帽o years. These results suggest that TCHP, but not SST, plays an important role in TC intensity and its intensification.

Wada A., J. C. L. Chan, 2008: Relationship between typhoon activity and upper ocean heat content. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35,L17603, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035129.10.1029/2008GL035129

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL035129/citedby[1] A 44-year mean distribution of tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), a measure of the oceanic heat content from the surface to the 26掳C-isotherm depth, shows that TCHP is locally high in the western North Pacific (WNP). TCHP varies on interannual time scales and has a relationship with tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The third mode of an empirical orthogonal function analysis of TCHP shows that an increase in the total number of TCs is accompanied with a warm central Pacific and cool WNP. Negative TCHP anomalies in the WNP suggest that an increase in total number of TCs results in cooling due to their passages. On the other hand, the first mode shows that the number of super typhoons increases in mature El Niño years. An increase in accumulated TCHP is related to the increase in the number of super typhoons due to long duration.

Wada A., N. Usui, and K. Sato, 2012: Relationship of maximum tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone heat potential in the North Pacific Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 117,D11118, doi: 10.1029/2012JD017583.10.1029/2012JD017583

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JD017583/fullAbstract Top of page Abstract 1.Introduction 2.Data and Methodology 3.Results 4.Discussion 5.Concluding Remarks Acknowledgments References Supporting Information [1] We investigated whether the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) in the North Pacific Ocean depends on sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP). The study used reanalysis data sets for both the oceans and atmosphere: daily, 10-day, and monthly oceanic data sets; six-hour and monthly atmospheric data sets; and a daily satellite SST data set, for the July-to-October season from 2002 to 2005. For each TC, we summed TCHP from the time of genesis to the time of first reaching a minimum central pressure (MCP), to obtain an accumulated TCHP. In a linear regression analysis, the relationship between maximum TC intensity and accumulated TCHP differed between the eastern and western Pacific: high values of accumulated TCHP were needed before a TC attained a certain MCP in the western Pacific. In addition, the background convective available potential energy (CAPE) value was nearly four times larger in the western Pacific than in the eastern Pacific. The static stability was also 6.5% lower, the inertial stability 29.7% higher, and the size of tropical cyclones 38.2% larger in the western Pacific than in the eastern Pacific. The result indicated a deeper Rossby penetration depth and stronger TC in the western Pacific. Finally, we validated the TCHP values derived from three oceanic reanalysis data sets by using Argo profiling float observations. We found that use of only the daily data can reproduce the cooling effect of a passage of a TC, which caused a decrease in the TCHP values.

Wang C. Z., L. P. Zhang, S. -K. Lee, L. X. Wu, and C. R. Mechoso, 2014: A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases. Nature Climate Change,4, 201-205, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2118.10.1038/nclimate2118

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http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n3/full/nclimate2118.htmlThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report largely depends on simulations, predictions and projections by climate models. Most models, however, have deficiencies and biases that raise large uncertainties in their products. Over the past several decades, a tremendous effort has been made to improve model performance in the simulation of special regions and aspects of the climate system. Here we show that biases or errors in special regions can be linked with others at far away locations. We find in 22 climate models that regional sea surface temperature (SST) biases are commonly linked with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which is characterized by the northward flow in the upper ocean and returning southward flow in the deep ocean. A simulated weak AMOC is associated with cold biases in the entire Northern Hemisphere with an atmospheric pattern that resembles the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. The AMOC weakening is also associated with a strengthening of Antarctic Bottom Water formation and warm SST biases in the Southern Ocean. It is also shown that cold biases in the tropical North Atlantic and West African/Indian monsoon regions during the warm season in the Northern Hemisphere have interhemispheric links with warm SST biases in the tropical southeastern Pacific and Atlantic, respectively. The results suggest that improving the simulation of regional processes may not suffice for overall better model performance, as the effects of remote biases may override them.