doi:10.1007/s00376-016-5234-8

Adler, R. F., Coauthors, 2003: The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeorology, 4, 1147- 1167.10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2003JHyMe...4.1147A

refpaperuri:(6d3afea98ce646aaa127cb18ee109d24)

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003JHyMe...4.1147AThe Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version-2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.517 latitude 17 2.517 longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit satellite infrared data, and surface rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The dataset is extended back into the premicrowave era (before mid-1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the rain gauge analysis. The dataset archive also contains the individual input fields, a combined satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products, including those at finer temporal resolution. The 23-yr GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

Allan R., T. Ansell, 2006: A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850-2004. J.Climate, 19, 5816- 5842.10.1175/JCLI3937.1

2187d65d-562a-4ce6-b585-9a138f25ed65

2922b7ff3d9d19cb121698f556275f6b

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2006JCli...19.5816A

refpaperuri:(edbe535d3b7e3ee9ede3ada0f269ed78)

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JCli...19.5816AAbstract An upgraded version of the Hadley Centre monthly historical mean sea level pressure (MSLP) dataset (HadSLP2) is presented. HadSLP2 covers the period from 1850 to date, and is based on numerous terrestrial and marine data compilations. Each terrestrial pressure series used in HadSLP2 underwent a series of quality control tests, and erroneous or suspect values were either corrected, where possible, or removed. Marine observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set were quality controlled (assessed against climatology and near neighbors) and then gridded. The final gridded form of HadSLP2 was created by blending together the processed terrestrial and gridded marine MSLP data. MSLP fields were made spatially complete using reduced-space optimal interpolation. Gridpoint error estimates were also produced. HadSLP2 was found to have generally stronger subtropical anticyclones and higher-latitude features across the Northern Hemisphere than an earlier product (HadSLP1). During the austral winter, however, it appears that the pressures in the southern Atlantic and Indian Ocean midlatitude regions are too high; this is seen in comparisons with both HadSLP1 and the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Over regions of high altitude, HadSLP2 and ERA-40 showed consistent differences suggestive of potential biases in the reanalysis model, though the region over the Himalayas in HadSLP2 is biased compared with HadSLP1 and improvements are required in this region. Consistent differences were also observed in regions of sparse data, particularly over the higher latitudes of the Southern Ocean and in the southeastern Pacific. Unlike the earlier HadSLP1 product, error estimates are available with HadSLP2 to guide the user in these regions of low confidence. An evaluation of major phenomena in the climate system using HadSLP2 provided further validation of the dataset. Important climatic features/indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, North Pacific index, Southern Oscillation index, Trans-Polar index, Antarctic Oscillation, Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, East Asian Summer Monsoon index, and the Siberian High index have all been resolved in HadSLP2, with extensions back to the mid-nineteenth century.

Bengtsson L., U. Schlese, E. Roeckner, M. Latif, T. P. Barnett, and N. Graham, 1993: A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting. Science, 261( 5124),1026- 1029.10.1126/science.261.5124.1026

17739623

9795df082b5751e00d28e34c9ea948a5

http%3A%2F%2Feuropepmc.org%2Fabstract%2FMED%2F17739623

http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/17739623Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.

Carton J. A., B. S. Giese, 2008: A reanalysis of ocean climate using simple ocean data assimilation (SODA). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2999- 3017.454a78caf21a0c20ffebed73838f4b6a

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrcresearchpress.com%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Drefg15%2Fref15%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1139%252Fcjfas-2014-0524%26key%3D10.1175%252F2007MWR1978.1

/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28d49e7ec0aacf61ec20ac4c5d8331d5d0%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrcresearchpress.com%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Drefg15%2Fref15%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1139%252Fcjfas-2014-0524%26key%3D10.1175%252F2007MWR1978.1&ie=utf-8&sc_us=17162769380036851920

Carton J. A., G. Chepurin, X. H. Cao, and B. Giese, 2000: A simple ocean data assimilation analysis of the global upper ocean 1950-95. Part I: Methodology. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30, 294- 309.10.1175/1520-0485(2000)030<0294:ASODAA>2.0.CO;2

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http://www.researchgate.net/publication/254436070_A_Simple_Ocean_Data_Assimilation_Analysis_of_the_Global_Upper_Ocean_1950_95._Part_I_Methodology

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/254436070_A_Simple_Ocean_Data_Assimilation_Analysis_of_the_Global_Upper_Ocean_1950_95._Part_I_MethodologyAbstract The authors describe a 46-year global retrospective analysis of upper-ocean temperature, salinity, and currents. The analysis is an application of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package. SODA uses an ocean model based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory MOM2 physics. Assimilated data includes temperature and salinity profiles from the World Ocean Atlas-94 (MBT, XBT, CTD, and station data), as well as additional hydrography, sea surface temperature, and altimeter sea level. After reviewing the basic methodology the authors present experiments to examine the impact of trends in the wind field and model forecast bias (referred to in the engineering literature as olored noise). The authors believe these to be the major sources of error in the retrospective analysis. With detrended winds the analysis shows a pattern of warming in the subtropics and cooling in the Tropics and at high latitudes. Model forecast bias results partly from errors in surface forcing and partly from limitations of the model. Bias is of great concern in regions of thermocline water-mass formation. In the examples discussed here, the data assimilation has the effect of increasing production of these water masses and thus reducing bias. Additional experiments examine the relative importance of winds versus subsurface updating. These experiments show that in the Tropics both winds and subsurface updating contribute to analysis temperature, while in midlatitudes the variability results mainly from the effects of subsurface updating.

Chang Y.-S., S. Q. Zhang, A. Rosati, T. L. Delworth, and W. F. Stern, 2013: An assessment of oceanic variability for 1960-2010 from the GFDL ensemble coupled data assimilation. Climate Dyn.,40(3-4), 775-803, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1412-2.10.1007/s00382-012-1412-2

807a4df5d1d5f32962d90e16695267a2

http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00382-012-1412-2

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/XREF?id=10.1007/s00382-012-1412-2The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has developed an ensemble coupled data assimilation (ECDA) system based on the fully coupled climate model, CM2.1, in order to provide reanalyzed coupled initial conditions that are balanced with the climate prediction model. Here, we conduct a comprehensive assessment for the oceanic variability from the latest version of the ECDA analyzed for 5102years, 1960-2010. Meridional oceanic heat transport, net ocean surface heat flux, wind stress, sea surface height, top 30002m heat content, tropical temperature, salinity and currents are compared with various in situ observations and reanalyses by employing similar configurations with the assessment of the NCEP- climate forecast system reanalysis (Xue et al. in Clim Dyn 37(11):2511-2539, 2011 ). Results show that the ECDA agrees well with observations in both climatology and variability for 5102years. For the simulation of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and global salinity variability, the ECDA shows a good performance compared to existing reanalyses. The ECDA also shows no significant drift in the deep ocean temperature and salinity. While systematic model biases are mostly corrected with the coupled data assimilation, some biases (e.g., strong trade winds, weak westerly winds and warm SST in the southern oceans, subsurface temperature and salinity biases along the equatorial western Pacific boundary, overestimating the mixed layer depth around the subpolar Atlantic and high-latitude southern oceans in the winter seasons) are not completely eliminated. Mean biases such as strong South Equatorial Current, weak Equatorial Under Current, and weak Atlantic overturning transport are generated during the assimilation procedure, but their variabilities are well simulated. In terms of climate variability, the ECDA provides good simulations of the dominant oceanic signals associated with El Nino and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the whole analyzed period, 1960-2010.

Dee, D. P., Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553- 597.10.1002/qj.828

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.828%2Fpdf

refpaperuri:(d4649bb38c91f047e85ec096d8587b99)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.828/pdfABSTRACT ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF. Copyright 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Dickinson R. E., K. W. Oleson, G. Bonan, F. Hoffman, P. Thornton, M. Vertenstein, Z. L. Yang, and X. B. Zeng, 2006: The community land model and its climate statistics as a component of the community climate system model. J.Climate, 19, 2302- 2324.5458db4d-b18c-4785-92a1-c74b76a820ef

56402bb69d971675bf1e94ec8cdd00a6

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bioone.org%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Dbibr35%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1657%252F1938-4246-46.1.84%26key%3D10.1175%252FJCLI3742.1

refpaperuri:(dd677e7fa78ac49e74440c429bff3457)

/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28dd677e7fa78ac49e74440c429bff3457%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bioone.org%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Dbibr35%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1657%252F1938-4246-46.1.84%26key%3D10.1175%252FJCLI3742.1&ie=utf-8&sc_us=3783548909889436964

Dong X., F. Xue, 2016: Phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation and decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon in the 20th century. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,33, 330-338, doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-5130-7.10.1007/s00376-015-5130-7

c636321a774eaa8a20d37cf40b7bc6cc

http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00376-015-5130-7

http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/dqkxjz-e201603006

Dong X., F. Xue, H. Zhang, and Q. C. Zeng, 2012: Evaluation of surface air temperature change over China and the globe during the twentieth century in IAP AGCM4.0. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5( 5), 435- 438.10.1080/16742834.2012.11447031

c2026207b288d45e7a07a396ead858f8

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle%2FCJFDTotal-AOSL201205015.htm

http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dqhhykxkb201205015.aspxBased on time series and linear trend analysis, the authors evaluated the performance of the fourth gen- eration atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP AGCM4.0), in simulating surface air temperature (SAT) during the twentieth century over China and the globe. The numerical experiment is con- ducted by driving the model with the observed sea surface temperature and sea ice. It is shown that IAP AGCM4.0 can simulate the warming trend of the global SAT, with the major wanning regions in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the South- ern Hemisphere. While the simulated trend over the whole globe is close to the observation, the model trader- estimates the observed trend over the continents. More- over, the model simulates the spatial distribution of SAT in China, with a bias of approximately -2 in eastern China, but with a more serious bias in western China. Compared with the global mean, however, the correlation coefficient between the simulation and observation in China is significantly lower, indicating that there is large uncertainty in simulating regional climate change.

Dong X., T. H. Su, J. Wang, and R. P. Lin, 2014: Decadal variation of the Aleutian Low- Icelandic Low seesaw simulated by a climate system model (CAS-ESM-C). Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett.,7(2), 110-114, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0061.10.1080/16742834.2014.11447144

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http%3A%2F%2Fd.wanfangdata.com.cn%2FPeriodical_dqhhykxkb201402006.aspx

http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dqhhykxkb201402006.aspxBased on a simulation using a newly developed climate system model(Chinese Academy of Sciences-Earth System Model-Climate system component, CAS-ESM-C), the author investigated the Aleutian Low- Icelandic Low Seesaw(AIS) and its decadal variation. Results showed that the CAS-ESM-C can reasonably reproduce not only the spatial distribution of the climatology of sea level pressure(SLP) in winter, but also the AIS and its decadal variation. The period 496-535 of the integration by this model was divided into two sub-periods: 496-515(P1) and 516-535(P2) to further investigate the decadal weakening of the AIS. It was shown that this decadal variation of the AIS is mainly due to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), from its positive phase to its negative phase. This transition of the PDO causes the sea surface temperature(SST) in the equatorial eastern(northern) Pacific to cool(warm), resulting in the decadal weakening of mid-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. This may be responsible for the weakening of the inverse relation between the Aleutian Low(AL) and the Icelandic Low(IL).

Emanuel K. A., 1991: A scheme for representing cumulus convection in large-scale models. J. Atmos. Sci., 48( 21), 2313- 2329.10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<2313:ASFRCC>2.0.CO;2

218e621a83f0518e0ffbfd4072d103b8

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1991JAtS...48.2313E

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1991JAtS...48.2313EAbstract Observations of individual convective clouds reveal an extraordinary degree of inhomogeneity, with much of the vertical transport accomplished by subcloud-scale drafts. In view of these observations, a representation of moist convective transports for use in large-scale models is constructed, in which the fundamental entities are these subcloud-scale drafts rather than the clouds themselves. The transport by these small-scale drafts is idealized as follows. Air from the subcloud layer is lifted to each level i between cloud base and the level of neutral buoyancy for undilute air. A fraction (i ) of the condensed water is then converted to precipitation, which falls and partially or completely evaporates in an unsaturated downdraft. The remaining cloudy air is then assumed to form a uniform spectrum of mixtures with environmental air at level i ; these mixtures ascend or descend according to their buoyancy. The updraft mass fluxes M i are represented as vertical velocities determined by the amount of convective available potential energy for undilute ascent to level i , multiplied by fractional areas i , which are in turn determined in such a way as to drive the mass fluxes toward a state of quasi-equilibrium with the large-scale forcing. The downdraft mass fluxes are unique functions of the M i , so that determination of the M i closes the System. The main closure parameters in this scheme are the parcel precipitation efficiencies , i , which determine the fraction of condensed water in a parcel lifted to level i that is converted to precipitation, and the fraction i s of precipitation that falls through unsaturated air. These may be specified as functions of altitude, temperature, adiabatic water content, and so on, and are regarded as explicitly determined by cloud microphysical processes. Specification of these parameters determines the vertical profiles of heating and moistening by cloud processes, given the large-scale (explicitly resolved) forcing. It is argued here that accurate calculation of the moistening by cumulus clouds cannot proceed without addressing the microphysics of precipitation formation, fallout, and reevaporation. One-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium experiment with this scheme produce reasonable profiles of buoyancy and relative humidity. When large-scale descent is imposed, a trade-cumulus regime is produced, including a trade inversion and mixing-line structure in the cloud layer.

Evensen G., 2003: The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dynamics, 53, 343- 367.10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9

fe06c7adae408eb1888b539a799f9cda

http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs10236-003-0036-9

http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9CiteSeerX - Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles): The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

Fujii Y., T. Nakaegawa, S. Matsumoto, T. Yasuda, G. Yamanaka, and M. Kamachi, 2009: Coupled climate simulation by constraining ocean fields in a coupled model with ocean data. J.Climate, 22( 20), 5541- 5557.10.1175/2009JCLI2814.1

6548b3ac6ff4a43cd384eef204125b77

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cabdirect.org%2Fabstracts%2F20093340550.html

http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20093340550.htmlAbstract The authors developed a system for simulating climate variation by constraining the ocean component of a coupled atmospherecean general circulation model (CGCM) through ocean data assimilation and conducted a climate simulation [Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation Systemoupled Version Reanalysis (MOVE-C RA)]. The monthly variation of sea surface temperature (SST) is reasonably recovered in MOVE-C RA. Furthermore, MOVE-C RA has improved precipitation fields over the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) run (a simulation of the atmosphere model forced by observed daily SST) and the CGCM free simulation run. In particular, precipitation in the Philippine Sea in summer is improved over the AMIP run. This improvement is assumed to stem from the reproduction of the interaction between SST and precipitation, indicated by the lag of the precipitation change behind SST. Enhanced (suppressed) convection tends to induce an SST drop (rise) because of cloud cover and ocean mixing in the real world. A lack of this interaction in the AMIP run leads to overestimating the precipitation in the Bay of Bengal in summer. Because it is recovered in MOVE-C RA, the overestimate is suppressed. This intensifies the zonal Walker circulation and the monsoon trough, resulting in enhanced convection in the Philippine Sea. The spurious positive correlation between SST and precipitation around the Philippines in the AMIP run in summer is also removed in MOVE-C RA. These improvements demonstrate the effectiveness of simulating ocean interior processes with the ocean model and data assimilation for reproducing the climate variability.

Gaspari G., S. E. Cohn, 1999: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 723- 757.10.1002/qj.49712555417

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.49712555417%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49712555417/fullNot Available

Good S. A., M. J. Martin, and N. A. Rayner, 2013: EN4: Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates. J. Geophys. Res.,118, 6704-6716, doi: 10.1002/2013JC 009067.10.1002/2013JC009067

77318731ef651c526f17c2961e51632f

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2F2013JC009067%2Fabstract

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JC009067/abstractWe present version 4 of the Met Office Hadley Centre "EN" series of data sets of global quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses, which covers the period 1900 to present. We briefly describe the EN4 data sources, processing, quality control procedures, and the method of generating the analyses. In particular, we highlight improvements relative to previous versions, which include a new duplicate profile removal procedure and the inclusion of three new quality control checks. We discuss in detail a novel method for providing uncertainty estimates for the objective analyses and improving the background error variance estimates used by the analysis system. These were calculated using an iterative method that is relatively robust to initial misspecification of background error variances. We also show how the method can be used to identify issues with the analyses such as those caused by misspecification of error variances and demonstrate the impact of changes in the observing system on the uncertainty in the analyses.

Huffman G.J., Coauthors, 1997: The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78( 1), 5- 20.10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0005:TGPCPG>2.0.CO;2

8d41c9f14c72ff096e849cfb2b6baab6

http%3A%2F%2Fci.nii.ac.jp%2Fnaid%2F10010432808

http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/10010432808The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5* 2.5 latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Ni09o-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

Jiang Y. Q., X. H. Liu, X. Q. Yang, and M. H. Wang, 2013: A numerical study of the effect of different aerosol types on East Asian summer clouds and precipitation. Atmos. Environ., 70, 51- 63.10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.12.039

286ca1a42e3f0ea1873ed0a259789089

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS135223101300006X

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S135223101300006XIn this study, the anthropogenic aerosol impact on the summer monsoon clouds and precipitation in East Asia is investigated using the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5), a state-of-the-art climate model considering aerosol direct, semi-direct and indirect effects. The effects of all anthropogenic aerosols, and anthropogenic black carbon (BC), sulfate, and primary organic matter (POM) are decomposed from different sensitivity simulations. Anthropogenic sulfate and POM reduce the solar flux reaching the surface directly by scattering the solar radiation, and indirectly by increasing the cloud droplet number concentration and cloud liquid water path over East China. The surface air temperature over land is reduced, and the precipitation in North China is suppressed. Unlike anthropogenic sulfate and POM, anthropogenic BC does not have a significant effect on the air temperature at the surface, because of the reduction of the cloud liquid water path and the weakening of shortwave cloud forcing by its semi-direct effect. The anthropogenic BC strengthens the southwesterly wind over South China and leads to stronger deep convection at the 25 30 latitudinal band. The effect of all anthropogenic aerosols on air temperature, clouds, and precipitation is not a linear summation of effects from individual anthropogenic sulfate, BC and POM. Overall all anthropogenic aerosols suppress the precipitation in North China and enhance the precipitation in South China and adjacent ocean regions.

Kimoto M., 2005: Simulated change of the East Asian circulation under global warming scenario. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32,L16701, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023383.10.1029/2005GL023383

99fefdf601d1fc7b376393245b39cb06

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2005GL023383%2Fabstract

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL023383/abstractChanges in east Asian circulation pattern are investigated by the most recent versions of coupled climate models, one a high resolution version of the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC model and the other an ensemble of 17 state-of-the-art models made available by the international modeling community. These recent model results appear to give more credence to the following aspects: weakened winter monsoon associated with the shallower and northeastward shifted planetary wave trough over the east coast of the Eurasian Continent and increased activity of east Asian monsoonal rain band in summer associated with the strengthening of anticyclonic cells to its south and north.

Kosaka Y., S. P. Xie, 2013: Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature, 501( 7467), 403- 407.10.1038/nature12534

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http%3A%2F%2Feuropepmc.org%2Fabstract%2FMED%2F23995690

/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28a38bd48f0a4f8788f20b151a565bd4dc%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Feuropepmc.org%2Fabstract%2FMED%2F23995690&ie=utf-8&sc_us=6613118577099492308Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century(1,2), challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming(3-6), but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Nina-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Li G., S. P. Xie, 2014: Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: The excessive equatorial pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems. J. Climate,27, 1765-1780, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00337.1.10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00337.1

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2014JCli...27.1765L

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JCli...27.1765LAbstract Errors of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) limit their utility for climate prediction and projection. Origins of and feedback for tropical biases are investigated in the historical climate simulations of 18 CGCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), together with the available Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Based on an intermodel empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of tropical Pacific precipitation, the excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) stand out as the most prominent errors of the current generation of CGCMs. The comparison of CMIP- MIP pairs enables us to identify whether a given type of errors originates from atmospheric models. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias is associated with deficient precipitation and surface easterly wind biases in the western half of the basin in CGCMs, but these errors are absent in atmosphere-only models, indicating that the errors arise from the interaction with the ocean via Bjerknes feedback. For the double ITCZ problem, excessive precipitation south of the equator correlates well with excessive downward solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes, an error traced back to atmospheric model simulations of cloud during austral spring and summer. This extratropical forcing of the ITCZ displacements is mediated by tropical ocean- tmosphere interaction and is consistent with recent studies of ocean- tmospheric energy transport balance.

Li H. M., A. G. Dai, T. J. Zhou, and J. Lu, 2010: Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950-2000. ClimateDyn., 34, 501- 514.10.1007/s00382-008-0482-7

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http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00382-008-0482-7

refpaperuri:(b8601d18770e7aab20276976cc7c3d13)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/XREF?id=10.1007/s00382-008-0482-7ABSTRACT The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and summer rainfall over East China have experienced large decadal changes during the latter half of the 20th century. To investigate the potential causes behind these changes, a series of simulations using the national center for atmospheric research (NCAR) community atmospheric model version 3 (CAM3) and the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model version 2.1 (AM2.1) are analyzed. These simulations are forced separately with different historical forcing, namely tropical sea surface temperature (SSTs), global SSTs, greenhouse gases plus aerosols, and a combination of global SSTs and greenhouse gases plus aerosols. This study focuses on the relative roles of these individual forcings in causing the observed monsoon and rainfall changes over East Asia during 1950–2000. The simulations from both models show that the SST forcing, primarily from the Tropics, is able to induce most of the observed weakening of the EASM circulation, while the greenhouse gas plus (direct) aerosol forcing increases the land-sea thermal contrast and thus enhances the EASM circulation. The results suggest that the recent warming in the Tropics, especially the warming associated with the tropical interdecadal variability centered over the central and eastern Pacific, is a primary cause for the weakening of the EASM since the late 1970s. However, a realistic simulation of the relatively small-scale rainfall change pattern over East China remains a challenge for the global models. KeywordsEast Asian summer monsoon-Decadal change-Sea surface temperature-Greenhouse gases

Liang N., R. S. Bradley, 2016: NAO and PNA influences on winter temperature and precipitation over the eastern United States in CMIP5 GCMs. ClimateDyn.,46, 1257-1276, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2643-9.10.1007/s00382-015-2643-9

e8f8eb2d9cc46e3ed33a91f838282066

http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2643-9

http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2643-9The historical and future relationships between two major patterns of large-scale climate variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific/North America pattern (PNA), and the regional winter temperature and precipitation over the eastern United States were systemically evaluated by using 17 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. Empirical orthogonal function analysis was used to define the NAO and PNA. The observed spatial patterns of NAO and PNA can be reproduced by all the GCMs with slight differences in locations of the centers of action and their average magnitudes. For the correlations with regional winter temperature and precipitation over the eastern US, GCMs perform best in capturing the relationships between the NAO and winter temperature, and between the PNA and winter temperature and precipitation. The differences between the observed and simulated relationships are mainly due to displacements of the simulated NAO and PNA centers of action and differences in their magnitudes. In simulations of the future, both NAO and PNA magnitudes increase, with uncertainties related to the model response and emission scenarios. When assessing the influences of future NAO/PNA changes on regional winter temperature, it is found that the main factors are related to changes in the magnitude of the NAO Azores center and total NAO magnitude, and the longitude of the PNA center over northwestern North America, total PNA magnitude, and the magnitude of the PNA center over the southeastern US.

Liang X. Z., F. Zhang, 2013: The cloud-aerosol-radiation (CAR) ensemble modeling system. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8335- 8364.10.5194/acpd-13-10193-2013

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oalib.com%2Fpaper%2F2700120

refpaperuri:(451fd530f98f27167884f4cffdb45283)

http://www.oalib.com/paper/2700120A Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR) ensemble modeling system has been developed to incorporate the largest choices of alternative parameterizations for cloud properties (cover, water, radius, optics, geometry), aerosol properties (type, profile, optics), radiation transfers (solar, infrared), and their interactions. These schemes form the most comprehensive collection currently available in the literature, including those used by the world leading general circulation models (GCMs). The CAR provides a unique framework to determine (via intercomparison across all schemes), reduce (via optimized ensemble simulations), and attribute specific key factors for (via physical process sensitivity analyses) the model discrepancies and uncertainties in representing greenhouse gas, aerosol and cloud radiative forcing effects. This study presents a general description of the CAR system and illustrates its capabilities for climate modeling applications, especially in the context of estimating climate sensitivity and uncertainty range caused by cloud-aerosol-radiation interactions. For demonstration purpose, the evaluation is based on several CAR standalone and coupled climate model experiments, each comparing a limited subset of the full system ensemble with up to 896 members. It is shown that the quantification of radiative forcings and climate impacts strongly depends on the choices of the cloud, aerosol and radiation schemes. The prevailing schemes used in current GCMs are likely insufficient in variety and physically biased in a significant way. There exists large room for improvement by optimally combining radiation transfer with cloud property schemes.

Liu H. L., X. H. Zhang, W. Li, Y. Q. Yu, and R. C. Yu, 2004: An eddy-permitting oceanic general circulation model and its preliminary evaluation. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,21(5), 675-690, doi: 10.1007/BF02916365.10.1007/BF02916365

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http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dqkxjz-e200405001.aspxAn eddy-permitting, quasi-global oceanic general circulation model, LICOM (LASG/IAP (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics) Climate System Ocean Model), with a uniform grid of 0.5- 0.5 is established.Forced by wind stresses from Hellerman and Rosenstain (1983), a 40-yr integration is conducted with sea surface temperature and salinity being restored to the Levitus 94 datasets. The evaluation of the annual mean climatology of the LICOM control run shows that the large-scale circulation can be well reproduced. A comparison between the LICOM control run and a parallel integration of L30T63, which has the same framework but a coarse resolution, is also made to confirm the impact of resolution on the model performance. On account of the reduction of horizontal viscosity with the enhancement of the horizontal resolution, LICOM improves the simulation with respect to not only the intensity of the large scale circulations, but also the magnitude and structureof the Equatorial Undercurrent and South Equatorial Current. Taking advantage of the fine grid size, the pathway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is better represented in LICOM than in L30T63. The transport of ITF in LICOM is more convergent in the upper layer. As a consequence, the Indian Ocean tends to get warmer in LICOM. The poleward heat transports for both the global and individual basins are also significantly improved in LICOM. A decomposed analysis indicates that the transport due to the barotropic gyre, which primarily stands for the barotropic effect of the western boundary currents, plays a crucial role in making the difference.

Liu Z. Y., S. Wu, S. Q. Zhang, Y. Liu, and X. Y. Rong, 2013: Ensemble data assimilation in a simple coupled climate model: The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,30(5), 1235-1248, doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2268-z.10.1007/s00376-013-2268-z

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle%2FCJFDTotal-DQJZ201305002.htm

http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dqkxjz-e201305001.aspxA conceptual coupled ocean-atmosphere model was used to study coupled ensemble data assimilation schemes with a focus on the role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the assimilation. The optimal scheme was the fully coupled data assimilation scheme that employs the coupled covariance matrix and assimilates observations in both the atmosphere and ocean. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability that captures the temporal fluctuation of the weather noise was found to be critical for the estimation of not only the atmospheric, but also oceanic states. The synoptic atmosphere observation was especially important in the mid-latitude system, where oceanic variability is driven by weather noise. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability in the coupled model improved the atmospheric variability in the analysis and the subsequent forecasts, reducing error in the surface forcing and, in turn, in the ocean state. Atmospheric observation was able to further improve the oceanic state estimation directly through the coupled covariance between the atmosphere and ocean states. Relative to the mid-latitude system, the tropical system was influenced more by ocean-atmosphere interaction and, thus, the assimilation of oceanic observation becomes more important for the estimation of the ocean and atmosphere.

Lu F. Y., Z. Y. Liu, S. Q. Zhang, and Y. Liu, 2015: Strongly coupled data assimilation using leading averaged coupled covariance (LACC). Part I: Simple model study. Mon. Wea. Rev.,143(9), 3823-3837, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00322.1.

Lu Z. T., J. Zhu, W. W. Fu, C. P. He, H. B. Xue, and Y. L. Zhao, 2014: Design and preliminary evaluation of the global ocean data assimilation system ZFL_GODAS. Climatic and Environmental Research,19(3), 321-331, doi: 10.3878/j.issn. 1006-9585.2013.12179. (in Chinese)7c485f99caca7e53f338ac25091dbc54

http%3A%2F%2Fen.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle_en%2FCJFDTotal-QHYH201403006.htm

http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-QHYH201403006.htmA global ocean data assimilation system named ZFL_GODAS is developed in this study. The system is a sub-system of an operational system for short-range climate forecasting, and provides the global ocean initial state field for coupled ocean-atmosphere models. It can assimilate observations such as satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature(SST), in situ temperature, and salinity from Argo, XBT, TAO, and other sources. ZFL_GODAS uses LICOM1.0(a global OGCM developed by LASG/IAP) as its ocean model. It is an ensemble optimal interpolation system that uses an ensemble of a series of model states from a free LICOM running to estimate the background error covariances(BECs). The ensemble-based BECs are multivariate and inhomogeneous and they can reflect the length scales, anisotropy, and covariability of oceanic physical processes. To enhance the efficiency, a set of distinctive, efficient, and load-balanced parallelized Ensemble Optimal Interpolation(EnOI) programs have been developed. The performance of ZFL_GODAS is evaluated by comparing its results with a range of satellite-derived and in situ observations. We compare the interannual variability of SST and sea surface height, the evolution of the SST anomaly at the equator, and the root-mean-square error of model results of SST, sea level anomaly, and sub-surface temperature and salinity. We also show the five-year-mean profiles for temperature bias, salinity, and zonal velocity. We find that the ocean data assimilation shows a very positive impact on the modeled fields. We can preliminarily conclude that ZFL_GODAS performs well, so it can provide a desirable global ocean initial state for the ocean model component of the climate forecasting system, and provide effective reanalysis data for improving our understanding of the oceans.

Mantua N. J., S. R. Hare, 2002: The Pacific decadal oscillation. Journal of Oceanography, 58, 35- 44.10.1023/A:1015820616384

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http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1023%2FA%3A1015820616384

refpaperuri:(7ee73282fc24a7b1d3afc7232a8a436b)

http://link.springer.com/10.1023/A:1015820616384<a name="Abs1"></a>The <i>Pacific Decadal Oscillation</i> (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Ni?o-like pattern of Pacific climate variability, and by others as a blend of two sometimes independent modes having distinct spatial and temporal characteristics of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. A growing body of evidence highlights a strong tendency for PDO impacts in the Southern Hemisphere, with important surface climate anomalies over the mid-latitude South Pacific Ocean, Australia and South America. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: “cool” PDO regimes prevailed from 1890–1924 and again from 1947–1976, while “warm” PDO regimes dominated from 1925–1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Interdecadal changes in Pacific climate have widespread impacts on natural systems, including water resources in the Americas and many marine fisheries in the North Pacific. Tree-ring and Pacific coral based climate reconstructions suggest that PDO variations—at a range of varying time scales—can be traced back to at least 1600, although there are important differences between different proxy reconstructions. While 20th Century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities—one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years—the mechanisms causing PDO variability remain unclear. To date, there is little in the way of observational evidence to support a mid-latitude coupled air-sea interaction for PDO, though there are several well-understood mechanisms that promote multi-year persistence in North Pacific upper ocean temperature anomalies.

Mantua N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069- 1079.9a9ae4973967cb1c5f5681c069ca5d08

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/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28d679c06e05f28e2bae5345106e465c12%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bioone.org%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Dbibr41%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1002%252Fjwmg.238%26key%3D10.1175%252F1520-0477%281997%29078%253C1069%253AAPICOW%253E2.0.CO%253B2&ie=utf-8&sc_us=11212036467643392941

Menon S., J. Hansen, L. Nazarenko, and Y. F. Luo, 2002: Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India. Science, 297, 2250- 2253.10.1126/science.1075159

12351786

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fresolve%2Freference%2FPMED%3Fid%3D12351786

http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM12351786In recent decades, there has been a tendency toward increased summer floods in south China, increased drought in north China, and moderate cooling in China and India while most of the world has been warming. We used a global climate model to investigate possible aerosol contributions to these trends. We found precipitation and temperature changes in the model that were comparable to those observed if the aerosols included a large proportion of absorbing black carbon (ユ笩oot, similar to observed amounts. Absorbing aerosols heat the air, alter regional atmospheric stability and vertical motions, and affect the large-scale circulation and hydrologic cycle with significant regional climate effects.

Oke P. R., G. B. Brassington, D. A. Griffin, and A. Schiller, 2008: The Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System (BODAS). Ocean Modelling,21, 46-70, doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2007. 11.002.

Qian C., T. J. Zhou., 2014: Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900-2010. J.Climate, 27( 3), 1210- 1222.10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00235.1

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2014JCli...27.1210Q

refpaperuri:(999b136888116dc147e8325b0e3473b8)

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JCli...27.1210QAbstract North China has undergone a severe drying trend since the 1950s, but whether this trend is natural variability or anthropogenic change remains unknown due to the short data length. This study extends the analysis of dry-et changes in north China to 1900-2010 on the basis of self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) data. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to detect multidecadal variability. A transition from significant wetting to significant drying is detected around 1959/60. Approximately 70% of the drying trend during 1960-90 originates from 50-70-yr multidecadal variability related to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) phase changes. The PDSI in north China is significantly negatively correlated with the PDO index, particularly at the 50-70-yr time scale, and is also stable during 1900-2010. Composite differences between two positive PDO phases (1922-45 and 1977-2002) and one negative PDO phase (1946-76) for summer exhibit an anomalous Pacific-apan/East Asian-acific patternlike teleconnection, which may develop locally in response to the PDO-associated warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and meridionally extends from the tropical western Pacific to north China along the East Asian coast. North China is dominated by an anomalous high pressure system at mid-ow levels and an anticyclone at 850 hPa, which are favorable for dry conditions. In addition, a weakened land-ea thermal contrast in East Asia from a negative to a positive PDO phase also plays a role in the dry conditions in north China by weakening the East Asian summer monsoon.

Reynolds R. W., T. M. Smith, C. Y. Liu, D. B. Chelton, K. S. Casey, and M. G. Schlax, 2007: Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J.Climate, 20, 5473- 5496.6f04d906d78600c9650c319dd60c30a7

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/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28e2b152b8bb4317a726855f8e58d5b425%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bioone.org%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Dbibr47%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.4003%252F006.033.0111%26key%3D10.1175%252F2007JCLI1824.1&ie=utf-8&sc_us=2534034836931133203

Smith T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J.Climate, 21, 2283- 2296.10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00241.1

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http%3A%2F%2Fconnection.ebscohost.com%2Fc%2Farticles%2F83755233%2Fnoaas-merged-land-ocean-surface-temperature-analysis

refpaperuri:(dbc44c65ee1c9ace06b0727517ae2bee)

http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/83755233/noaas-merged-land-ocean-surface-temperature-analysisThis paper describes the new release of the Merged Land-cean Surface Temperature analysis (MLOST version 3.5), which is used in operational monitoring and climate assessment activities by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. The primary motivation for the latest version is the inclusion of a new land dataset that has several major improvements, including a more elaborate approach for addressing changes in station location, instrumentation, and siting conditions. The new version is broadly consistent with previous global analyses, exhibiting a trend of 0.076C decade 611 since 1901, 0.162C decade 611 since 1979, and widespread warming in both time periods. In general, the new release exhibits only modest differences with its predecessor, the most obvious being very slightly more warming at the global scale (0.004C decade 611 since 1901) and slightly different trend patterns over the terrestrial surface.

Su T. H., F. Xue, and H. Zhang, 2014: Simulating the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon by IAP AGCM4.0. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,31, 570-580, doi: 10.1007/ s00376-013-3029-8.10.1007/s00376-013-3029-8

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http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00376-013-3029-8

http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dqkxjz-e201403008.aspxThis study focuses on the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) simulated by IAP AGCM4.0, the fourth-generation atmospheric general circulation model recently developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences. In general, the model simulates the intraseasonal evolution of the EASM and the related rain belt. Besides, the model also simulates the two northward jumps of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which are closely related to the convective activities in the warm pool region and Rossby wave activities in high latitudes. Nevertheless,some evident biases in the model were found to exist. Due to a stronger WPSH, the model fails to simulate the rain belt in southern China during May and June. Besides, the model simulates a later retreat of the EASM, which is attributed to the overestimated landea thermal contrast in August. In particular, the timing of the two northward jumps of the WPSH in the model is not coincident with the observation, with a later jump by two pentads for the first jump and an earlier jump by one pentad for the second, i.e., the interval between the two jumps is shorter than the observation. This bias is mainly ascribed to a shorter oscillating periodicity of convection in the tropical northwestern Pacific.

Su T. H., F. Xue, H. C. Sun, and G. Q. Zhou, 2015: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle simulated by the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 34( 1), 55- 65.10.1007/s13131-015-0596-9

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refpaperuri:(a2525b546207c6e504538f8ac76af1c9)

http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_hyxb-e201501008.aspxOn the basis of more than 200-year control run, the performance of the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS-ESM-C) in simulating the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is evalu-ated, including the onset, development and decay of the ENSO. It is shown that, the model can reasonably simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacif-ic, as well as the seasonal phase-locking of the ENSO. The model also captures two prerequisites for the El Ni?o onset, i.e., a westerly anomaly and a warm SST anomaly in the equatorial western Pacific. Owing to too strong forcing from an extratropical meridional wind, however, the westerly anomaly in this region is largely overestimated. Moreover, the simulated thermocline is much shallower with a weaker slope. As a result, the warm SST anomaly from the western Pacific propagates eastward more quickly, leading to a faster develop-ment of an El Ni?o. During the decay stage, owing to a stronger El Ni?o in the model, the secondary Gill-type response of the tropical atmosphere to the eastern Pacific warming is much stronger, thereby resulting in a persistent easterly anomaly in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, a cold anomaly in the warm pool appears as a result of a lifted thermocline via Ekman pumping. Finally, an El Ni?o decays into a La Ni?a through their interactions. In addition, the shorter period and larger amplitude of the ENSO in the model can be attribut-ed to a shallower thermocline in the equatorial Pacific, which speeds up the zonal redistribution of a heat content in the upper ocean.

Sun H. C., G. Q. Zhou, and Q. C. Zeng, 2012: Assessments of the climate system model (CAS-ESM-C) using IAP AGCM4 as its atmospheric component. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 36( 2), 215- 233. (in Chinese)10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z

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refpaperuri:(66162069e1faa65007c1028bac34b754)

http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201202003.htmThis paper assesses the performance of a new climate system model, namely CAS-ESM-C (Chinese Academy of Sciences-Earth System Model-Climate system component), which employs the recently improved version of IAP AGCM, namely IAP AGCM4, as its atmospheric component. This paper first describes the development and framework of the model briefly, and then evaluates the performances of the model in simulating the climate mean states of the atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice. Some aspects of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability are also analyzed. The results indicate that the CAS-ESM-C succeeds in controlling the long-term climate drift and has acceptable performances in realistically reproducing the climate mean states of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea ice. The CAS-ESM-C also successfully reproduces the seasonal cycle of SST over the tropical Pacific and the seasonal cycle of the sea ice cover in the Arctic. The seasonal migration of monsoon rain band is well reproduced in the model, indicating the acceptable performance of the East Asian monsoon simulation. Except for the slight underestimation of the ENSO period and overestimation of the average amplitude, other characteristics of interannual variability over the tropical Pacific are well reproduced in the CAS-ESM-C. It is particularly important that, benefiting from the realistic simulation of the seasonal cycle of SST over the tropical Pacific, a "phase-locked" phenomenon appears in the simulated ENSO, which is hardly reproduced in other coupled models. The main deficiency of the CAS-ESM-C is the tropic bias, which is common in other coupled models. Some analyses are made to reveal the possible reason behind these simulation biases especially the tropical bias. The results suggest that the biases in the atmosphere which are amplified by the ocean-atmosphere feedback are the key reasons of the tropic bias in the coupled system. According to the analyses of the biases, future improvements of the CAS-ESM-C should focus on the treatment of physical processes of cloud and precipitation in the AGCM. From this point, updating or improving the low-level cloud scheme and the convective parameterization of the atmosphere model may be the first step for the future development of the CAS-ESM-C.

Sun Y., Y. H. Ding, 2008: Validation of IPCC AR4 climate models in simulating interdecadal change of East Asian summer monsoon. Acta Meteorological Sinica, 66( 5), 765- 780. (in Chinese)f6c3ec1952061cec0cd89677d668c07b

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http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-QXXB200805010.htmObservations from several data centers together with a categorization method are used to evaluate the IPCC AR4 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Fourth Assessment Report) climate models' performance in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and monsoon circulation in East Asia. Out of 19 models under examination, 9 can relatively well reproduce the 1979-1999 mean June-July-August (JJA) precipitation in East Asia, but only 3 (Category-1 models) can capture the interdecadal variation of precipitation in East Asia. These 3 models are: GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2 (hires) and MIROC3.2 (medres), among which the GFDL-CM2.0 gives the best performance. The reason for the poor performance of most models in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal variation lies in that the key dynamic and thermal-dynamic mechanisms behind the East Asian monsoon change are missed by the models, e.g., the large-scale tropospheric cooling and drying over East Asia. In contrast, the Category-1 models relatively well reproduce the variations in vertical velocity and water vapor over East Asia and thus show a better agreement with observations in simulating the pattern of "wet South and dry North" in China in the past 20 years. It is assessed that a single model's performance in simulating a particular variable has great impacts on the ensemble results. More realistic outputs can be obtained when the multi-model ensemble is carried out using a suite of well-performing models for a specific variable, rather than using all available models. This indicates that although a multi-model ensemble is in general better than a single model, the best ensemble mean cannot be achieved without looking into each member model's performance.

Wang B., I. S. Kang, and J. Y. Lee, 2004: Ensemble simulations of Asian Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs. J.Climate, 17, 803- 818.10.1175/1520-0442(2004)0172.0.CO;2

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2004JCli...17..803W

refpaperuri:(321d533f408a8d9e9f726d82d711ae2b)

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004JCli...17..803WEnsemble simulations of Asian Australian monsoon (A AM) anomalies were evaluated in 11 atmospheric general circulation models for the unprecedented El Ni09o period of September 1996 August 1998. The models' simulations of anomalous Asian summer rainfall patterns in the A AM region (30S 30N, 40 160E) are considerably poorer than in the El Ni09o region. This is mainly due to a lack of skill over Southeast Asia and the western North Pacific (5 30N, 80 150E), which is a striking characteristic of all the models. The models' deficiencies result from failing to simulate correctly the relationship between the local summer rainfall and the SST anomalies over the Philippine Sea, the South China Sea, and the Bay of Bengal: the observed rainfall anomalies are negatively correlated with SST anomalies, whereas in nearly all models, the rainfall anomalies are positively correlated with SST anomalies. While the models' physical parameterizations have large uncertainties, this problem is primarily attributed to the experimental design in which the atmosphere is forced to respond passively to the specified SSTs, while in nature the SSTs result in part from the atmospheric forcing.Regional monsoon dynamic indices are calculated for the Indian, the western North Pacific, and the Australian monsoons, respectively. Most models can realistically reproduce the western North Pacific and Australian monsoon, yet fail with the Indian monsoon. To see whether this is generally the case, a suite of five Seoul National University model runs with the same observed lower boundary forcing (and differing only in their initial conditions) was examined for the period 1950 98. The skill in the 49-yr ensemble simulations of the Indian monsoon is significantly higher than the skill for the period 1996 98. In other words for the unprecedented 1997/98 El Ni09o period, the models under study experience unusual difficulties in simulating the Indian monsoon circulation anomalies. Moreover, the observed Webster Yang index shows a decreasing trend over the last 50 yr, a trend missed by the models' ensemble simulations.

Wang B., Q. H. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla, and F. Doblas-Reyes, 2005: Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32( 15), 291- 310.10.1029/2005GL022734

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0928098714003054

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL022734/abstract[1] The scientific basis for two-tier climate prediction lies in the predictability determined by the ocean and land surface conditions. Here we show that the state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), when forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST), are unable to simulate properly Asian-Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. All models yield positive SST-rainfall correlations in the summer monsoon that are at odds with observations. The observed lag correlations between SST and rainfall suggest that treating monsoon as a slave possibly results in the models' failure. We demonstrate that an AGCM, coupled with an ocean model, simulates realistic SST-rainfall relationships; however, the same AGCM fails when forced by the same SSTs that are generated in its coupled run, suggesting that the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes are crucial in the monsoon regions where atmospheric feedback on SST is critical. The present finding calls for reshaping of current strategies for monsoon seasonal prediction. The notion that climate can be modeled and predicted by prescribing the lower boundary conditions is inadequate for validating models and predicting summer monsoon rainfall.

Wang T., H. J. Wang, O. H. Ottera, Y. Q. Gao, L. L. Suo, T. Furevik, and L. Yu, 2013: Anthropogenic forcing of precipitation pattern in Eastern China in late 1970s. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 12433- 12450.

Yan C. X., J. Zhu, and J. P. Xie, 2015: An ocean data assimilation system in the Indian Ocean and west Pacific Ocean. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,32(11), 1460-1472, doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-4121-z.10.1007/s00376-015-4121-z

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http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2Fs00376-015-4121-z

http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/dqkxjz-e201511002

Yang F. L., K.-M. Lau, 2004: Trend and variability of China precipitation in spring and summer: linkage to sea surface temperatures. International J.Climatology, 24, 1625- 1644.10.1002/joc.1094

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refpaperuri:(f3d9f5994390904aa64c06954f6592ad)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1094/pdfABSTRACT Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and interdecadal time scales.Results based on singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centres of action for each season, which are covarying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centred in southeastern China and northern China respectively, are linked to an El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO)-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and the Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850 hPa winds and 700 hPa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs.On the decadal and longer time scale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean, the interdecadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, i.e. the North Pacific mode. The latter is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and interdecadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Copyright 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

Zhang H., M. H. Zhang, and Q. C. Zeng, 2013: Sensitivity of simulated climate to two atmospheric models: Interpretation of differences between dry models and moist models. Mon. Wea. Rev.,141, 1558-1576, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00367.1.10.1175/MWR-D-11-00367.1

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http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013MWRv..141.1558ZAbstract The dynamical core of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP AGCM) and the Eulerian spectral transform dynamical core of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 (CAM3.1), developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are used to study the sensitivity of simulated climate. The authors report that when the dynamical cores are used with the same CAM3.1 physical parameterizations of comparable resolutions, the model with the IAP dynamical core simulated a colder troposphere than that from the CAM3.1 core, reducing the CAM3.1 warm bias in the tropical and midlatitude troposphere. However, when the two dynamical cores are used in the idealized Helduarez tests without moisture physics, the IAP AGCM core simulated a warmer troposphere than that in CAM3.1. The causes of the differences in the full models and in the dry models are then investigated. The authors show that the IAP dynamical core simulated weaker eddies in both the full physics and the dry models than those in the CAM due to different numerical approximations. In the dry IAP model, the weaker eddies cause smaller heat loss from poleward dynamical transport and thus warmer troposphere in the tropics and midlatitudes. When moist physics is included, however, weaker eddies also lead to weaker transport of water vapor and reduction of high clouds in the IAP model, which then causes a colder troposphere due to reduced greenhouse warming of these clouds. These results show how interactive physical processes can change the effect of a dynamical core on climate simulations between two models.

Zhang X. X., H. L. Liu, and M. H. Zhang, 2015: Double ITCZ in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Geophys. Res. Lett.,42, 8651-8659, doi: 10.1002/2015GL 065973.10.1002/2015GL065973

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2F2015GL065973%2Fpdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL065973/pdfRecent progress in reducing the double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias in coupled climate models is examined based on multimodel ensembles of historical climate simulations from Phase 3 and Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Biases common to CMIP3 and CMIP5 models include spurious precipitation maximum in the southeastern Pacific, warmer sea surface temperature (SST), weaker easterly, and stronger meridional wind divergences away from the equator relative to observations. It is found that there is virtually no improvement in all these measures from the CMIP3 ensemble to the CMIP5 ensemble models. The five best models in the two ensembles as measured by the spatial correlations are also assessed. No progress can be identified in the subensembles of the five best models from CMIP3 to CMIP5 even though more models participated in CMIP5; the biases of excessive precipitation and overestimated SST in southeastern Pacific are even worse in the CMIP5 models. Double ITCZ bias persists from CMIP3 to CMIP5 The CMIP5 MME with overall warmer SST suffers a more serious double ITCZ problem than CMIP3 MME No improvement can be identified in the subensembles of five best models from CMIP3 to CMIP5

Zhou T. J., D. Y. Gong, J. Li, and B. Li, 2009: Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-Recent progress and state of affairs. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18( 4), 455- 467.10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0396

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http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/schweiz/mz/2009/00000018/00000004/art00009East Asia is dominated by a typical monsoon climate. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) exhibits considerable variability on a wide range of time scales during the 20 century. A substantial portion is the multi-decadal variability. Over the recent decades, the EASM has been weakening from the end of the 1970s which results in a "southern China flood and northern China drought" rainfall pattern. Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the weakening tendency has been a challenge for climate research community. Examinations on the long-term change of the EASM during the 20 century find no significant trends, indicating the pronounced weakening tendency of the EASM in recent decades is unprecedented. After documenting the prominent features of the interdecadal climate transition, a review is presented in this paper on the proposed explanations to the observed changes. The proposed factors include the Indian Ocean and far western Pacific warming, the tropical central-eastern Pacific warming, the weakening sensible heat source over the Tibetan Plateau, and the aerosol forcing, as well as internal variability. While parts of the monsoon circulation changes can be explained in terms of the proposed mechanisms, it is still beyond the scope of our current knowledge to present a complete picture. Much remains to be learned about the mechanisms that produce such multi-decadal changes in the EASM, but it seems still unclear whether human activities and global warming are playing significant roles. German Ostasien wird von einem typischen Monsunklima beherrscht. Der ostasiatische Sommermonsun (EASM) zeigt w01hrend des 20. Jahrhunderts eine erhebliche Variabilit01t ober ein breites Spektrum von Zeitskalen hinweg. Ein gr0208erer Teil davon ist multidekadische Variabilit01t. Seit dem Ende der 1970er Jahre hat sich der EASM abgeschw01cht, was zu dem "Sodchina-Flut - Nordchina-Dorre" Muster gefohrt hat. Das Verst01ndnis for die Ursachen dieser Abschw01chungstendenz stellt eine Herausforderung for die Klimatologie dar. Untersuchungen der langfristigen 02nderungen des EASM w01hrend des gesamten 20. Jahrhunderts zeigen keine signifikanten Trends, was bedeutet, dass die 02nderung in den letzten Jahrzehnten ohne Beispiel ist. Nach einer Dokumentation der wichtigsten Ph01nomene dieser interdekalen Klima01nderung bietet die vorliegende Arbeit einen 05berblick ober die m02glichen Erkl01rungen for die beobachteten 02nderungen. Diese beinhalten unter anderem eine Erw01rmung des mittleren und 02stlichen Pazifiks, eine Abschw01chung der w01rmequelle ober dem tibetischen Plateau, einen Antrieb durch Aerosol wie auch interne Variabilit01ten. w01hrend Teile der 02nderung der Monsunzirkulation hierdurch erkl01rt werden k02nnen, liegt eine vollst01ndige Erkl01rung des Ph01nomens noch jenseits unseres derzeitigen Wissensstands. Es muss noch viel ober die Mechanismen verstanden werden, die solche interdekalen 02nderungen des EASM hervorrufen, wobei es noch unklar ist ob menschliche Aktivit01ten und die globale Erw01rmung eine signifikante Rolle spielen.

Zhu Y. L., H. J. Wang, W. Zhou, and J. H. Ma, 2011: Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. ClimateDyn., 36, 1463- 1473.10.1007/s00382-010-0852-9

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http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00382-010-0852-9

http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-010-0852-9This study documents the decadal changes of the summer precipitation in East China, with increased rainfall in the Huang-Huai River region (HR) and decreased in the Yangtze River region (YR) during 2000-2008 in comparison to 1979-1999. The main features of the atmospheric circulation related to the increased precipitation in the HR are the strengthened ascending motion and slightly increased air humidity, which is partly due to the weakened moisture transport out of the HR to the western tropical Pacific (associated with the weakened westerly over East Asia and the warming center over the Lake Baikal). The rainfall decrease in the YR is related to the weakened ascending motion and reduced water vapor content, which is mainly related to the weakened southwesterly moisture flux into the YR (associated with the eastward recession of the Western Pacific Subtropical High). The global sea surface temperature (SST) also shows significant changes during 2000-2008 relative to 1979-1999. The shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) to a negative phase probably induces the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerly jet through the air-sea interaction in the Pacific, and thus changes the summer precipitation pattern in East China. Numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model, with prescribed all-Pacific SST anomalies of 2000-2008 relative to 1979-1999, also lend support to the PDO- contribution to the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerlies over East China.

Zou L. W., T. J. Zhou, 2013: Can a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model improve the simulation of the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon? J.Climate, 26( 7), 2353- 2367.10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00722.1

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http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs11434-013-0104-6

http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11434-013-0104-6Abstract A flexible regional ocean- tmosphere-and system coupled model [Flexible Regional Ocean Atmosphere Land System (FROALS)] was developed through the Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil, version 3 (OASIS3), coupler to improve the simulation of the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM). The regionally coupled model consists of a regional atmospheric model, the Regional Climate Model, version 3 (RegCM3), and a global climate ocean model, the National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG)/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) Climate Ocean Model (LICOM). The impacts of local air-ea interaction on the simulation of the interannual variability of the WNPSM are investigated through regionally ocean- tmosphere coupled and uncoupled simulations, with a focus on El Ni09o- decaying summer. Compared with the uncoupled simulation, the regionally coupled simulation exhibits improvements in both the climatology and the interannual variability of rainfall over the WNP. In El Ni09o- decaying summer, the WNP is dominated by an anomalous anticyclone, less rainfall, and enhanced subsidence, which lead to increases in the downward shortwave radiation flux, thereby warming sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Thus, the ocean appears as a slave to atmospheric forcing. In the uncoupled simulation, however, the atmosphere is a slave to oceanic SST forcing, with the warm SST anomalies located east of the Philippines unrealistically producing excessive rainfall. In the regionally coupled run, the unrealistic positive rainfall anomalies and the associated atmospheric circulations east of the Philippines are significantly improved, highlighting the importance of air-ea coupling in the simulation of the interannual variability of the WNPSM. One limitation of the model is that the anomalous anticyclone over the WNP is weaker than the observations in both the regionally coupled and the uncoupled simulations. This results from the weaker simulated climatological summer rainfall intensity over the monsoon trough.