Brutsaert W., 1975: A theory for local evaporation (or heat transfer) from rough and smooth surfaces at ground level. Water Resour. Res.,11, 543-550, doi: 10.1029/WR011i004p00543.10.1029/WR011i004p005436ba7d13fa2f1ded764ed31f1ca4021a0http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2FWR011i004p00543%2Ffullhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/WR011i004p00543/fullA model proposed earlier (Brutsaert, 1965) for evaporation as a molecular diffusion process into a turbulent atmosphere is extended by joining it with the similarity models for turbulent transfer in the surface sublayer. The assumed mechanisms were suggested by available flow visualization studies near smooth and rough walls; the theoretical result is in good agreement with available experimental evidence. The important dimensionless parameters governing the phenomenon near the surface are the Dalton (or Stanton) number (i.e., mass transfer coefficient), the drag coefficient (u/U), the roughness Reynolds number (uz/v) (except for smooth surfaces), and the Schmidt (or Prandtl) number (v/k). The proposed formulation allows the evaluation of the effects of some parameters, such as surface roughness or molecular diffusivity, that were hitherto not well understood. An important practical result is that in contrast to the drag coefficient, the Dalton number is relatively insensitive to changes in roughness length Z.
Bu Y. P., R. G. Fovell, and K. L. Corbosiero, 2014: Influence of cloud-radiative forcing on tropical cyclone structure. J. Atmos. Sci.,71, 1644-1662, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0265.1.10.1175/JAS-D-13-0265.1b74b87d55ff774b4b7ac99c80a4529c1http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2014JAtS...71.1644Bhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JAtS...71.1644BNot Available
Bui H. H., R. K. Smith, M. T. Montgomery, and J. Y. Peng, 2009: Balanced and unbalanced aspects of tropical cyclone intensification. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,135, 1715-1731, doi: 10.1002/qj.502.10.1002/qj.5024b945f82eeff3ee9a50772da5e1b7dc5http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.502%2Fabstracthttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.502/abstractNot Available
Chan K. T. F., J. C. L. Chan, 2012: Size and strength of tropical cyclones as inferred from QuikSCAT data. Mon. Wea. Rev.,140, 811-824, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-10-05062.1.10.1175/MWR-D-10-05062.13d945e6d85dd94bb9f50d144e35dbb63http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2012MWRv..140..811Chttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012MWRv..140..811CNot Available
Chan K. T. F., J. C. L. Chan, 2013: Angular momentum transports and synoptic flow patterns associated with tropical cyclone size change. Mon. Wea. Rev.,141, 3985-4007, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00204.1.10.1175/MWR-D-12-00204.16a16553eb4d45f5db6002a79214db99bhttp%3A%2F%2Fconnection.ebscohost.com%2Fc%2Farticles%2F91667323%2Fangular-momentum-transports-synoptic-flow-patterns-associated-tropical-cyclone-size-changehttp://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/91667323/angular-momentum-transports-synoptic-flow-patterns-associated-tropical-cyclone-size-changeAbstract This paper is the second part of a comprehensive study on tropical cyclone (TC) size. In Part I, the climatology of TC size and strength over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the North Atlantic was established based on the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data. In this second part, the mechanisms that are likely responsible for TC size changes are explored through analyses of angular momentum (AM) transports and synoptic flow patterns associated with the TC. Changes in AM transport in the upper and lower troposphere appear to be important factors that affect TC intensity and size, respectively. The change in TC intensity is positively related to the change in the upper-tropospheric AM export, while the change in TC size is positively proportional to the change in the lower-tropospheric AM import. An examination of the synoptic flow patterns associated with WNP TCs suggests that changes in the synoptic flow near the TC are important in determining the change in TC size, with developments of the lower-tropospheric anticyclonic flows (one to the east and one to the west) bordering the TC being favorable for TC growth and a weakening of the subtropical high to the southeast for TC size reduction. A recurving TC tends to grow if the lower-tropospheric westerlies to its west increase. Moreover, a northward TC movement is related to the change in TC size. For example, a higher northward-moving speed is found for a larger TC, which also agrees well with the AM transport concept.
Chan K. T. F., J. C. L. Chan, 2014: Impacts of initial vortex size and planetary vorticity on tropical cyclone size. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,140, 2235-2248, doi: 10.1002/qj.2292.10.1002/qj.229241e3b915df8534c01cd1acf4ce1f8502http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.2292%2Fabstracthttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2292/abstractThis is a numerical modelling study to understand how the initial vortex size, which is defined as the azimuthally averaged radius from the tropical cyclone (TC) centre of the 10 m 17 m s 611 wind, and planetary vorticity ( f ) influence TC size change. Results from 16 f -plane experiments in a quiescent environment suggest that both of them are important in determining TC size change. With a given initial intensity and on the same f -plane, an initially larger TC generally has a larger size at a later stage because it has a larger horizontal wind extent and higher winds outside the inner core. The larger vortex therefore possesses higher angular momentum (AM) in the lower troposphere to increase its size in the outer-core region through AM transport. However, an initially small TC may not be ‘destined’ to be small during its lifetime, which agrees with the observation that TC size has a positive relationship with TC lifetime. In addition, a vortex can apparently grow by itself in a resting environment through fluxes of AM. A vortex at a higher latitude is also found to be not necessarily larger. Furthermore, size change is controlled to some extent by the lower-tropospheric inertial stability associated with the vortex. Consistent with observations, TC size appears to have a maximum at some optimum latitudinal region (65 25°N in general). All the results agree well with the AM transport concept such that the outer-core symmetric relative AM flux and Coriolis torque in the lower troposphere (especially those at the boundary layer) are important factors that govern size change.
Chan K. T. F., J. C. L. Chan, 2015a: Global climatology of tropical cyclone size as inferred from QuikSCAT data. Int. J. Climatol.,35, 4843-4848, doi: 10.1002/joc.4307.10.1002/joc.43071f3bd8dfe94b773ea08f37e470b2a752http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fjoc.4307%2Fcitedbyhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4307/citedbyNot Available
Chan K. T. F., J. C. L. Chan, 2015b: Impacts of vortex intensity and outer winds on tropical cyclone size. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,141, 525-537, doi: 10.1002/qj.2374.10.1002/qj.2374dfadbb04e695a73b40d2b2c77b0607e2http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.2374%2Fcitedbyhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2374/citedbyThe present study seeks to understand how the initial vortex intensity and outer winds influence tropical cyclone (TC) size, which is defined as the azimuthally averaged radius of the 10 m 17 m swind from the TC centre (17), using a full baroclinic model in a quiescent ‐plane environment. The initial vortex intensity is found to influence the size growth rate in the developing phase of the vortex life cycle. However, when the vortex comes to the mature and/or decaying phase of the vortex life cycle, the initial vortex intensity (ranging between 20 and 40 m sin this study) does not strongly affect TC size. On the other hand, vortex intensification or re‐intensification resulting from inner‐core dynamics is apparently favourable for size growth in most instances. In addition, the lower‐tropospheric outer winds of a vortex (i.e. winds beyond 17; e.g. the environmental flows around the TC) are found to be an important factor governing size change. The outer winds closer to 17 are more effective and can influence the vortex size at an earlier stage, especially if the winds are strong.
Chavas D. R., K. A. Emanuel, 2010: A QuikSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37,L18816, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044558.10.1029/2010GL04455890850ae985b1562afe55ea00461bebbchttp%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2010GL044558%2Fabstracthttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL044558/abstract[1] QuikSCAT data of near-surface wind vectors for the years 1999–2008 are used to create a climatology of tropical cyclone (TC) size, defined as the radius of vanishing winds. The azimuthally-averaged radius of 12 ms 1 wind ( r 12 ) is calculated for a subset of TCs ( N = 2154) whose centers of circulation were clearly identifiable via subjective analysis of the QuikSCAT-analyzed wind field. The outer radius, r 0 , is determined from r 12 using an outer wind structure model that assumes no deep convection beyond r 12 . The global median values of r 12 and r 0 are 197 km and 423 km, respectively, with statistically significant variation across ocean basins. The global distribution of r 12 is found to be approximately log-normal, the distribution of r 0 is quantitatively much closer to log-normal, and the improvement in fit between r 12 and r 0 is attributed to the combined effect of the nature of the model employed and the paired distributions of r 12 and f . Moreover, the normalization employed by Dean et al. (2009) is found to weaken rather than improve the log-normal fit. Finally, within a given storm, both r 12 and r 0 tend to expand very slowly with time early in the storm lifecycle and then becomes quasi-constant, though significant variance exists across storms.
Chen S.-H., W.-Y. Sun, 2002: A one-dimensional time dependent cloud model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,80, 99-118, doi: 10.2151/jmsj.80.99.10.2151/jmsj.80.992d93b119d0d43306b783d6f640cc5044http%3A%2F%2Fci.nii.ac.jp%2Fnaid%2F130004788414%2Fhttp://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/130004788414/A one-dimensional prognostic cloud model has been developed for possible use in a Cumulus Parameterization Scheme (CPS). In this model, the nonhydrostatic pressure, entrainment, cloud microphysics, lateral eddy mixing and vertical eddy mixing are included, and their effects are discussed. The inclusion of the nonhydrostatic pressure can (1) weaken vertical velocities, (2) help the cloud develop sooner, (3) help maintain a longer mature stage, (4) produce a stronger overshooting cooling, and (5) approximately double the precipitation amount. The pressure perturbation consists of buoyancy pressure and dynamic pressure, and the simulation results show that both of them are important. We have compared our simulation results with those from Ogura and Takahashi's one-dimensional cloud model, and those from the three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Our model, including detailed cloud microphysics, generates stronger maximum vertical velocity than Ogura and Takahashi's results. Furthermore, the results illustrate that this one-dimensional model is capable of reproducing the major features of a convective cloud that are produced by the three-dimensional model when there is no ambient wind shear.
Donelan M. A., B. K. Haus, N. Reul, W. J. Plant, M. Stiassnie, H. C. Graber, O. B. Brown, and E. S. Saltzman, 2004: On the limiting aerodynamic roughness of the ocean in very strong winds. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31,L18306, doi: 10.1029/2004 GL019460.10.1029/2004GL01946075ac3ffc0178fe410bb5b345296ed005http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2004GL019460%2Freferenceshttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004GL019460/referencesABSTRACT [1] The aerodynamic friction between air and sea is an important part of the momentum balance in the development of tropical cyclones. Measurements of the drag coefficient, relating the tangential stress (frictional drag) between wind and water to the wind speed and air density, have yielded reliable information in wind speeds less than 20 m/s (about 39 knots). In these moderate conditions it is generally accepted that the drag coefficient (or equivalently, the “aerodynamic roughness”) increases with the wind speed. Can one merely extrapolate this wind speed tendency to describe the aerodynamic roughness of the ocean in the extreme wind speeds that occur in hurricanes (wind speeds greater than 30 m/s)? This paper attempts to answer this question, guided by laboratory extreme wind experiments, and concludes that the aerodynamic roughness approaches a limiting value in high winds. A fluid mechanical explanation of this phenomenon is given.
Fovell R. G., H. Su, 2007: Impact of cloud microphysics on hurricane track forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,L24810, doi: 10.1029/2007GL031723.10.1029/2007GL03172380abb257205dfffd613554a026915df5http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2007GL031723%2Fpdfhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL031723/pdfSimulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) at operational resolutions (30 and 12 km) reveal significant track sensitivity to cloud microphysical details, rivaling variation seen in the National Hurricane Center's multi-model consensus forecast. Microphysics appears to directly or indirectly modulate vortex characteristics including size and winds at large radius and possibly other factors involved in hurricane motion. Idealized simulations made at higher (3 km) resolution help isolate the microphysical influence.
Fovell R. G., K. L. Corbosiero, and H. C. Kuo, 2009: Cloud microphysics impact on hurricane track as revealed in idealized experiments. J. Atmos. Sci.,66, 1764-1778, doi: 10.1175/ 2008JAS2874.1.10.1175/2008JAS2874.1b370f62b95807875f94d084af93ef610http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2009JAtS...66.1764Fhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009JAtS...66.1764FWith the assistance of some special sensitivity tests, the influence of microphysics and fall speed on radial temperature gradients, leading to different outer wind strengths and tracks, is shown. Among other things, this work demonstrates that the treatment of outer rainbands in operational models can potentially influence how simulated storms move, thus affecting position forecasts.
Fovell R. G., K. L. Corbosiero, A. Seifert, and K. N. Liou, 2010: Impact of cloud-radiative processes on hurricane track. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37,L07808, doi: 10.1029/2010GL042691.10.1029/2010GL042691ecff25dcf0fb1d2232673e8f17578c0chttp%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2010GL042691%2Fpdfhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL042691/pdfIdealized simulations of tropical cyclones suggest that previously established motion sensitivity to cloud microphysical processes may emerge through cloud-radiative feedback. When commonly employed radiation parameterizations and absorption treatments are used, microphysical schemes generate a variety of tracks, influenced by different, scheme-dependent convective heating patterns and magnitudes. However, these variations nearly vanish when cloud-radiative feedback is neglected, with storms becoming stronger and more compact. This study strongly motivates further research with respect to how condensation particles influence radiative processes and thus storm dynamics and thermodynamics.
Fudeyasu H., Y. Q. Wang, 2011: Balanced contribution to the intensification of a tropical cyclone simulated in TCM4: Outer core spin-up process. J. Atmos. Sci.,68, 430-449, doi: 10.1175/2010JAS3523.1.96c6d782ab7ccf9aad44a7b8d42dc451http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2011JAtS...68..430F%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACThttp://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28ae40618d077511581b39ff5f7fac8db1%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2011JAtS...68..430F%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT&ie=utf-8&sc_us=15792292735242510949
Goerss J. S., 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev.,128, 1187-1193, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1187:TCTFUA> 2.0.CO;2.10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1187:TCTFUA>2.0.CO;212daea6fccc4870af8896d0d518bb8fdhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2000MWRv..128.1187Ghttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000MWRv..128.1187GNot Available
Han J., H.-L. Pan, 2011: Revision of convection and vertical diffusion schemes in the NCEP Global Forecast System. Wea. Forecasting,26, 520-533, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05038.1.10.1175/WAF-D-10-05038.1b268077d000babacfc600f4b4b31ac76http%3A%2F%2Fconnection.ebscohost.com%2Fc%2Farticles%2F64842702%2Frevision-convection-vertical-diffusion-schemes-ncep-global-forecast-systemhttp://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/64842702/revision-convection-vertical-diffusion-schemes-ncep-global-forecast-systemAbstract A new physics package containing revised convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System is described. The shallow convection (SC) scheme in the revision employs a mass flux parameterization replacing the old turbulent diffusion-based approach. For deep convection, the scheme is revised to make cumulus convection stronger and deeper to deplete more instability in the atmospheric column and result in the suppression of the excessive grid-scale precipitation. The PBL model was revised to enhance turbulence diffusion in stratocumulus regions. A remarkable difference between the new and old SC schemes is seen in the heating or cooling behavior in lower-atmospheric layers above the PBL. While the old SC scheme using the diffusion approach produces a pair of layers in the lower atmosphere with cooling above and heating below, the new SC scheme using the mass-flux approach produces heating throughout the convection layers. In particular, the new SC scheme does not destroy stratocumulus clouds off the west coasts of South America and Africa as the old scheme does. On the other hand, the revised deep convection scheme, having a larger cloud-base mass flux and higher cloud tops, appears to effectively eliminate the remaining instability in the atmospheric column that is responsible for the excessive grid-scale precipitation in the old scheme. The revised PBL scheme, having an enhanced turbulence mixing in stratocumulus regions, helps prevent too much low cloud from forming. An overall improvement was found in the forecasts of the global 500-hPa height, vector wind, and continental U.S. precipitation with the revised model. Consistent with the improvement in vector wind forecast errors, hurricane track forecasts are also improved with the revised model for both Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricanes in 2008.
Heming J., J. C. L. Chan, and A. M. Radford, 1995: A new scheme for the initialisation of tropical cyclones in the UK Meteorological Office global model. Meteorological Applications,2, 171-184, doi: 10.1002/met.5060020211.10.1002/met.5060020211d944a5914bd1c46bd09d8d1708088ae3http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fmet.5060020211%2Fabstracthttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.5060020211/abstractNot Available Not Available
Hill K. A., G. M. Lackmann, 2009: Influence of environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size. Mon. Wea. Rev.,137, 3294-3315, doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2679.1.10.1175/2009MWR2679.195fd4db69ca7e3032acc79bdc31c2241http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2009MWRv..137.3294Hhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009MWRv..137.3294HObservations demonstrate that the radius of maximum winds in tropical cyclones (TCs) can vary by an order of magnitude; similar size differences are evident in other spatial measures of the wind field as well as in cloud and precipitation fields. Many TC impacts are related to storm size, yet the physical mechanisms that determine TC size are not well understood and have received limited research attention. Presented here is a hypothesis suggesting that one factor controlling TC size is the environmental relative humidity, to which the intensity and coverage of precipitation occurring outside the TC core is strongly sensitive. From a potential vorticity (PV) perspective, the lateral extent of the TC wind field is linked to the size and strength of the associated cyclonic PV anomalies. Latent heat release in outer rainbands can result in the diabatic lateral expansion of the cyclonic PV distribution and balanced wind field. Results of idealized numerical experiments are consistent with the hypothesized sensitivity of TC size to environmental humidity. Simulated TCs in dry environments exhibit reduced precipitation outside the TC core, a narrower PV distribution, and reduced lateral extension of the wind field relative to storms in more moist environments. The generation of diabatic PV in spiral bands is critical to lateral wind field expansion in the outer portion of numerically simulated tropical cyclones. Breaking vortex Rossby waves in the eyewall lead to an expansion of the eye and the weakening of inner-core PV gradients in the moist environment simulation. Feedback mechanisms involving surface fluxes and the efficiency of diabatic PV production with an expanding cyclonic wind field are discussed.
Hong S.-Y., J.-O. J. Lim, 2006: The WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6). Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, 42, 129- 151.7308c59e0fe08d8147ff5b2869261e63http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dbpia.co.kr%2FJournal%2FArticleDetail%2F773025http://www.dbpia.co.kr/Journal/ArticleDetail/773025This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Single-Moment- Microphysics scheme (WSMMPs) with a revised ice-microphysics of the Hong et al. In addition to the simple (WRF Single-Moment 3-class Microphysics scheme; WSM3) and mixed-phase (WRF Single-Moment 5-class Microphysics scheme; WSM5) schemes of the Hong et al., a more complex scheme with the inclusion of graupel as another predictive variable (WRF Single-Moment 6-class Microphysics scheme; WSM6) was developed. The characteristics of the three categories of WSMMPs were examined for an idealized storm case and a heavy rainfall event over Korea. In an idealized thunderstorm simulation, the overall evolutionary features of the storm are not sensitive to the number of hydrometeors in the WSMMPs; however, the evolution of surface precipitation is significantly influenced by the complexity in microphysics. A simulation experiment for a heavy rainfall event indicated that the evolution of the simulated precipitation with the inclusion of graupel (WSM6) is similar to that from the simple (WSM3) and mixed-phase (WSM5) microphysics in a low-resolution grid; however, in a high-resolution grid, the amount of rainfall increases and the peak intensity becomes stronger as the number of hydrometeors increases.
Hong S.-Y., J. Dudhia, and S.-H. Chen, 2004: A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,132, 103-120, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0103:ARATIM>2.0.CO; 2.10.1175/1520-0493(2004)1322.0.CO;27913d9ed85b1a9bbcdcb88db96a17cbbhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2004MWRv..132..103Hhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004MWRv..132..103HNot Available
Hong S.-Y., Y. Noh, and J. Dudhia, 2006: A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon. Wea. Rev.,134, 2318-2341, doi: 10.1175/MWR3199.1.10.1175/MWR3199.179f98ee85a3853a6bfee0ec84e90c901http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2006MWRv..134.2318Hhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006MWRv..134.2318HThis paper proposes a revised vertical diffusion package with a nonlocal turbulent mixing coefficient in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Based on the study of Noh et al. and accumulated results of the behavior of the Hong and Pan algorithm, a revised vertical diffusion algorithm that is suitable for weather forecasting and climate prediction models is developed. The major ingredient of the revision is the inclusion of an explicit treatment of entrainment processes at the top of the PBL. The new diffusion package is called the Yonsei University PBL (YSU PBL). In a one-dimensional offline test framework, the revised scheme is found to improve several features compared with the Hong and Pan implementation. The YSU PBL increases boundary layer mixing in the thermally induced free convection regime and decreases it in the mechanically induced forced convection regime, which alleviates the well-known problems in the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) PBL. Excessive mixing in the mixed layer in the presence of strong winds is resolved. Overly rapid growth of the PBL in the case of the Hong and Pan is also rectified. The scheme has been successfully implemented in the Weather Research and Forecast model producing a more realistic structure of the PBL and its development. In a case study of a frontal tornado outbreak, it is found that some systematic biases of the large-scale features such as an afternoon cold bias at 850 hPa in the MRF PBL are resolved. Consequently, the new scheme does a better job in reproducing the convective inhibition. Because the convective inhibition is accurately predicted, widespread light precipitation ahead of a front, in the case of the MRF PBL, is reduced. In the frontal region, the YSU PBL scheme improves some characteristics, such as a double line of intense convection. This is because the boundary layer from the YSU PBL scheme remains less diluted by entrainment leaving more fuel for severe convection when the front triggers it.
Iacono M. J., J. S. Delamere, E. J. Mlawer, M. W. Shephard, S. A. Clough, and W. D. Collins, 2008: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models. J. Geophys. Res., 113,D13103, doi: 10.1029/2008JD009944.10.1029/2008JD0099440b25c1c2a104d51c498700a19269e7f0http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2008JD009944%2Ffullhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008JD009944/fullA primary component of the observed, recent climate change is the radiative forcing from increased concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs). Effective simulation of anthropogenic climate change by general circulation models (GCMs) is strongly dependent on the accurate representation of radiative processes associated with water vapor, ozone and LLGHGs. In the context of the increasing application of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) radiation models within the GCM community, their capability to calculate longwave and shortwave radiative forcing for clear sky scenarios previously examined by the radiative transfer model intercomparison project (RTMIP) is presented. Forcing calculations with the AER line-by-line (LBL) models are very consistent with the RTMIP line-by-line results in the longwave and shortwave. The AER broadband models, in all but one case, calculate longwave forcings within a range of -0.20 to 0.23 W m{sup -2} of LBL calculations and shortwave forcings within a range of -0.16 to 0.38 W m{sup -2} of LBL results. These models also perform well at the surface, which RTMIP identified as a level at which GCM radiation models have particular difficulty reproducing LBL fluxes. Heating profile perturbations calculated by the broadband models generally reproduce high-resolution calculations within a few hundredths K d{sup more -1} in the troposphere and within 0.15 K d{sup -1} in the peak stratospheric heating near 1 hPa. In most cases, the AER broadband models provide radiative forcing results that are in closer agreement with high 20 resolution calculations than the GCM radiation codes examined by RTMIP, which supports the application of the AER models to climate change research. less
Jimènez, P. A., J. Dudhia, J. F. González-Rouco, J. Navarro, J. P. Montávez, E. Garcá-Bustamante, 2012: A revised scheme for the WRF surface layer formulation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,140, 898-918, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1.10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.15f073a65af49b2be446420bb683c566chttp%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fresolve%2Freference%2FXREF%3Fid%3D10.1175%2FMWR-D-11-00056.1http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/XREF?id=10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1Abstract This study summarizes the revision performed on the surface layer formulation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A first set of modifications are introduced to provide more suitable similarity functions to simulate the surface layer evolution under strong stable/unstable conditions. A second set of changes are incorporated to reduce or suppress the limits that are imposed on certain variables in order to avoid undesired effects (e.g., a lower limit in u * ). The changes introduced lead to a more consistent surface layer formulation that covers the full range of atmospheric stabilities. The turbulent fluxes are more (less) efficient during the day (night) in the revised scheme and produce a sharper afternoon transition that shows the largest impacts in the planetary boundary layer meteorological variables. The most important impacts in the near-surface diagnostic variables are analyzed and compared with observations from a mesoscale network.
Kain J., 2004: The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. J. Appl. Meteor.,43, 170-181, doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0170:TKCPAU>2.0.CO;2.10.1175/1520-0450(2004)04360;0170:tkcpau62;2.0.co;29b75490262b7749ec91d527514242feahttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2004japme..43..170khttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004japme..43..170kNumerous modifications to the Kain Fritsch convective parameterization have been implemented over the last decade. These modifications are described, and the motivating factors for the changes are discussed. Most changes were inspired by feedback from users of the scheme (primarily numerical modelers) and interpreters of the model output (mainly operational forecasters). The specific formulation of the modifications evolved from an effort to produce desired effects in numerical weather prediction while also rendering the scheme more faithful to observations and cloud-resolving modeling studies.
Kessler E., 1995: On the continuity and distribution of water substance in atmospheric circulations. Atmospheric Research,38, 109-145, doi: 10.1016/0169-8095(94)00090-Z.10.1016/0169-8095(94)00090-Ze287cf06f7cc4d6418bca5b1aff67851http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2F016980959400090Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/016980959400090ZThe studies show the nature of probable connections among distributions of water vapor, cloud, rain, and snow with vertical and horizontal winds, divergence of the wind, compressibility of the atmosphere, and the strength and distribution of various microphysical processes. The findings also aid interpretation of observations and they offer lessons for efforts toward artificial augmentation of precipitation.
Kimball S. K., M. S. Mulekar, 2004: A 15-year climatology of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Part I: Size parameters. J. Climate,17, 3555-3575, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017 <3555:AYCONA>2.0.CO;2.10.1175/1520-0442(2004)0172.0.CO;284431789080b1218c2fcd6197890683fhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2004JCli...17.3555Khttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004JCli...17.3555KThe extended best-track (EBT) dataset combines the information contained in the tropical cyclone best-track dataset with measurements of tropical cyclone “size parameters.” These parameters include the radii of the eye (REYE), maximum winds (RMW), gale-force winds (or size; 17.5 m s; R17), damaging-force winds (25.7 m s; R26), hurricane-force winds (32.9 m s; R33), and the outermost closed isobar (ROCI). The latest update of this dataset, to be used in this study for a size parameter climatology, contains the size parameters for North Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1988 to 2002. Such a climatology has not yet been established in this basin. Most of the results of this North Atlantic study agree with documented tropical cyclone theory and results from similar studies of northwest Pacific tropical cyclones. This provides confidence that the observations of the size parameters in the dataset are reliable. Furthermore, data west and east of 55°W (the boundary beyond which no aircraft observations are made) are compared. Some differences occur in some of the size parameters, but the sample west of 55°W is significantly larger and displays a greater spread. This provides confidence that the total dataset may not be affected by the nonaircraft data east of 55°W. The spatial and temporal distribution of the size parameters is investigated. The radii of gale-force (R17), damaging-force (R26), and hurricane-force (R33) winds tend to increase as storms move poleward and westward. North of 40°N, R33 and R26 decrease, while R17 increases. This is a reflection of storm weakening after recurvature. Gulf of Mexico storms have larger ROCIs but smaller eyes, R33s, R26s, and R17s than North Atlantic storms between 50° and 80°W. Gulf systems tend to form in the gulf instead of moving into this area from the Atlantic. Gulf incipient systems are likely to be tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) cells or monsoon trough features from the eastern Pacific instead of easterly waves from Africa. Early-season storms tend to be small; late-season storms are larger; and storm size peaks in September. Weakening storms tend to have smaller eyes than intensifying storms; most weakening storms are intense systems that have reached the end of their intensification and eyewall contraction process. These highly organized systems take a long time to spin down. Weak systems with large eyes take a long time to get organized and require a long time to intensify. Knowledge of the areal extent of damaging winds will provide forecasters and emergency managers with additional information to assess the damage potential of approaching storms.
Knaff J. A., S. P. Longmore, and D. A. Molenar, 2014: An objective satellite-based tropical cyclone size climatology. J. Climate,27, 455-476, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00096.1.10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00096.1dd1d8f2b980416ad90e2c3877735565ehttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2014JCli...27..455Khttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JCli...27..455KNot Available
Krishnamurti T. N., R. Correa-Torres G. Rohaly, and D. Oosterhof, 1997: Physical initialization and hurricane ensemble forecasts. Wea. Forecasting,12, 503-514, doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0503:PIAHEF>2.0.CO;2.10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0503:PIAHEF>2.0.CO;2ed106b0a004bdc0e774db63b12e1fbbchttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1997WtFor..12..503Khttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997WtFor..12..503KAbstract Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks is an emerging area in numerical weather prediction. In this paper, the spread of the ensemble of forecast tracks from a family of different First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment analyses is illustrated. All forecasts start at the same date and use the same global prediction model. The authors have examined ensemble forecasts for three different hurricanes/typhoons of the year 1979. The authors have used eight different initial analyses to examine the spread of ensemble forecasts through 6 days from the initial state. A total of 16 forecasts were made, of which 8 of them invoked physical initialization. Physical initialization is a procedure for improving the initial rainfall rates consistent with satellite/rain gauge based measures of rainfall. The main results of this study are that useful track forecasts are obtained from physical initialization, which is shown to suppress the spread of the ensemble of track forecasts. The spread of the tracks is quite large if the rain rates are not initialized. The major issue here is how one could make use of this information on ensemble forecasts for providing guidance. Toward that end, a statistical framework that makes use of the spread of forecast tracks to provide such guidance is presented.
Kurihara Y., M. A. Bender, R. E. Tuleya, and R. J. Ross, 1990: Prediction experiments of Hurricane Gloria (1985) using a multiply nested movable mesh model. Mon. Wea. Rev.,118, 2185-2198, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<2185: PEOHGU>2.0.CO;2.10.1175/1520-0493(1990)1182.0.CO;2b4dfd3604e01129a75302aaa1e2b3e79http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1990MWRv..118.2185Khttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990MWRv..118.2185KNot Available
Leslie L. M., G. J. Holland.1995: On the bogussing of tropical cyclones in numerical models: A comparison of vortex profiles. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,56, 101-110, doi: 10.1007/ BF01022523.10.1007/BF01022523197c23fb643ca84a82214bce769a61e2http%3A%2F%2Frd.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2FBF01022523http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01022523At the resolutions currently in use, and with the sparse oceanic data coverage, numerical analyses cannot adequately represent tropical cyclone circulations for use in numerical weather prediction models. In many cases there is no circulation present at all. Most numerical weather prediction centers therefore employ a “bogussing” scheme to force a tropical cyclone vortex into the numerical analysis. The standard procedure is to define a synthetic data distribution based on an analytically prescribed vortex, which is passed to the analysis scheme as a set of high quality observations.
Leslie L. M., J. F. Le Marshall, R. P. Morison, C. Spinoso, R. J. Purser, N. Pescod, and R. Seecamp, 1998: Improved hurricane track forecasting from the continuous assimilation of high quality satellite wind data. Mon. Wea. Rev.,126, 1248-1257, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1248:IHTFFT>2. 0.CO;2.10.1175/1520-0493(1998)1262.0.CO;2a65b5f1ebcf3eba67a9214746d0e87b2http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1998MWRv..126.1248Lhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998MWRv..126.1248LNot Available
Li Q. Q., Y. Q. Wang, and Y. H. Duan, 2014: Effects of diabatic heating and cooling in the rapid filamentation zone on structure and intensity of a simulated tropical cyclone. J. Atmos. Sci.,71, 3144-3163, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0312.1.10.1175/JAS-D-13-0312.1028f128628fbbdf06b3a1bee3822dadfhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2014JAtS...71.3144Lhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JAtS...71.3144LThe effects of diabatic heating and cooling in the rapid filamentation zone (RFZ), within which inner rainbands are often active, on tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity are investigated based on idealized numerical experiments using a cloud-resolving TC model (TCM4). The results show that removal of heating (cooling) in the RFZ would reduce (increase) the TC intensity. Diabatic heating in the RFZ plays an important role in increasing the inner-core size whereas diabatic cooling tends to limit the inner-core size increase or even reduce the inner-core size of a TC. Removal of both diabatic heating and cooling in the RFZ greatly suppresses the activity of inner rainbands but leads to the quasi-periodic development of a convective ring immediately outside of the inner core. A similar convective ring also develops in an experiment with the removal of diabatic heating only in the RFZ. With diabatic cooling removed only in the RFZ, an annular-hurricane-like structure arises with the outer rainbands largely suppressed.
Li Q. Q., Y. Q. Wang, and Y. H. Duan, 2015: Impacts of evaporation of rainwater on tropical cyclone structure and intensity-A revisit. J. Atmos. Sci.,72, 1323-1345, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0224.1.10.1175/JAS-D-14-0224.109daf698d80dd1f1ccb2d0754ff314c3http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2015JAtS...72.1323Lhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JAtS...72.1323LAbstract The impact of evaporation of rainwater on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure is revisited in this study. Evaporative cooling can result in strong downdrafts and produce lowquivalent potential temperature air in the inflow boundary layer, particularly in the region outside the eyewall, significantly suppressing eyewall convection and reducing the final intensity of a TC. Different from earlier findings, results from this study show that outer rainbands still form but are short lived in the absence of evaporation. Evaporation of rainwater is shown to facilitate the formation of outer rainbands indirectly by reducing the cooling due to melting of ice particles outside the inner core, not by the cold-pool dynamics, as previously believed. Only exclusion of evaporation in the eyewall region or the rapid filamentation zone has a very weak effect on the inner-core size change of a TC, whereas how evaporation in the outer core affects the inner-core size depends on how active the inner rainbands are. More (less) active inner rainbands may lead to an increase (a decrease) in the inner-core size.
Li X. L., Z. X. Pu, 2008: Sensitivity of numerical simulation of early rapid intensification of hurricane Emily (2005) to cloud microphysical and planetary boundary layer parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev.,136, 4819-4838, doi: 10.1175/2008 MWR2366.1.b2635a44812783616b707ddcc8ecfce3http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2008MWRv..136.4819L%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACThttp://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%280d02313907ba8518c91d21d7cf2533ba%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2008MWRv..136.4819L%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT&ie=utf-8&sc_us=6076612326383859248
Lin Y.-L., R. D. Farley, and H. D. Orville, 1983: Bulk parameterization of the snow field in a cloud model. J. Climate Appl. Meteor.,22, 1065-1092, doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022 <1065:BPOTSF>2.0.CO;2.10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022<1065:BPOTSF>2.0.CO;29190891c3775ec6ca868fe681504eba0http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1983japme..22.1065lhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1983japme..22.1065lA two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model has been used to simulate a moderate intensity thunderstorm for the High Plains region. Six forms of water substance (water vapor, cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow and hail, i.e., graupel) are simulated. The model utilizes the `bulk water' microphysical parameterization technique to represent the precipitation fields which are all assumed to follow exponential size distribution functions. Autoconversion concepts are used to parameterize the collision-coalescence and collision-aggregation processes. Accretion processes involving the various forms of liquid and solid hydrometeors are simulated in this model. The transformation of cloud ice to snow through autoconversion (aggregation) and Bergeron process and subsequent accretional growth or aggregation to form hail are simulated. Hail is also produced by various contact mechanisms and via probabilistic freezing of raindrops. Evaporation (sublimation) is considered for all precipitation particles outside the cloud. The melting of hail and snow are included in the model. Wet and dry growth of hail and shedding of rain from hail are simulated.The simulations show that the inclusion of snow has improved the realism of the results compared to a model without snow. The formation of virga from cloud anvils is now modeled. Addition of the snow field has resulted in the inclusion of more diverse and physically sound mechanisms for initiating the hail field, yielding greater potential for distinguishing dominant embryo types characteristically different from warm- and cold-based clouds.
Liu K. S., J. C. L. Chan, 2002: Synoptic flow patterns associated with small and large tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev.,130, 2134-2142, doi: 10.1175/ 1520-0493(2002)130<2134:SFPAWS>2.0.CO;2.a504fb0067cdf035698df88c4abda418http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2002MWRv..130.2134L%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACThttp://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28e83bcba6e09d89dbd5a69b6716996f86%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2002MWRv..130.2134L%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT&ie=utf-8&sc_us=11393737675499491735
Merrill R. T., 1984: A comparison of large and small tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev.,112, 1408-1418, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1408:ACOLAS>2.0.CO;2.10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1408:ACOLAS>2.0.CO;240e8fa0679e068737dddb700ed2fa325http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1984MWRv..112.1408Mhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1984MWRv..112.1408MNot Available
Miyoshi T., T. Komori, H. Yonehara, R. Sakai, and M. Yamaguchi, 2010: Impact of resolution degradation of the initial condition on typhoon track forecasts. Wea. Forecasting,25, 1568-1573, doi: 10.1175/2010WAF2222392.1.20cb30bdb050294eb9bfb9a80753e92fhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2010WtFor..25.1568M%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT%26high%3D15332http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%286e6cf701d8fa03e2ec9436fd480d2bb3%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2010WtFor..25.1568M%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT%26high%3D15332&ie=utf-8&sc_us=13589413727546087348
Rappaport, E. N., Coauthors, 2009: Advances and challenges at the National Hurricane Center. Wea. Forecasting,24, 395-419, doi: 10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1.10.1175/2008WAF2222128.14d87fc2a18c68ff8a54160435ca8b554http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2009WtFor..24..395Rhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009WtFor..24..395RThe National Hurricane Center issues analyses, forecasts, and warnings over large parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and in support of many nearby countries. Advances in observational capabilities, operational numerical weather prediction, and forecaster tools and support systems over the past 15–20 yr have enabled the center to make more accurate forecasts, extend forecast lead times, and provide new products and services. Important limitations, however, persist. This paper discusses the current workings and state of the nation’s hurricane warning program, and highlights recent improvements and the enabling science and technology. It concludes with a look ahead at opportunities to address challenges.
Rogers E., T. Black, B. Ferrier, Y. Lin, D. Parrish, and G. DiMego, 2001: Changes to the NCEP Meso Eta Analysis and Forecast System: Increase in resolution,new cloud microphysics, modified precipitation assimilation, modified 3DVAR analysis. [Available online at .]http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/eta12tpb/
Rogers, R., Coauthors, 2006: The intensity forecasting experiment: A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,87, 1523-1537, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-87-11-1523.10.1175/BAMS-87-11-15238dfdac8065a459388c37a5b5964c55b7http%3A%2F%2Fconnection.ebscohost.com%2Fc%2Farticles%2F25151656%2Fintensity-forecasting-experimenthttp://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/25151656/intensity-forecasting-experimentThe article describes a U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) multiyear field program called "Intensity Forecasting Experiment" designed to improve the forecasting of tropical cyclone intensity in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. Graphs present annually averaged official NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) forty-eight-hour forecast errors for tropical cyclones. The Experiment is taking a novel approach to the development of forecast abilities, the testing of real-time observational capabilities, and development of a physical understanding of tropical cyclones.
Skamarock, W. C., Coauthors, 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/ TN-4751STR,113 pp. [Available online at .]http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/arw_v3.pdf
Smith R. K., C. W. Schmidt, and M. T. Montgomery, 2011: An investigation of rotational influences on tropical-cyclone size and intensity. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,137, 1841-1855, doi: 10.1002/qj.862.10.1002/qj.8627e0fa3f80cea3b08dc92c26e3c75708chttp%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.862%2Fpdfhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.862/pdfNot Available
Srinivas C. V., R. Venkatesan, D. V. Bhaskar Rao, and D. Hari Prasad, 2007: Numerical simulation of Andhra severe cyclone (2003): Model sensitivity to the boundary layer and convection parameterization. Pure Appl. Geophys.,164, 1465-1487, doi: 10.1007/s00024-007-0228-1.10.1007/s00024-007-0228-1844b92cf6f8582815355d1066a988e09http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00024-007-0228-1http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00024-007-0228-1The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81, 27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levelsll support the characteristics of a mature storm. The model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm agreed reasonably with observations.
Sun Y., Z. Zhong, and W. Lu, 2015: Sensitivity of tropical cyclone feedback on the intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high to microphysics schemes. J. Atmos. Sci.,72, 1346-1368, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0051.1.10.1175/JAS-D-14-0051.1ae6dd228dc51a36d43a89ef3c3f3a91fhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2015JAtS...72.1346Shttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JAtS...72.1346SNot Available
Tao, W-K., J. J. Shi, S. S. Chen, S. Lang, P.-L. Lin, S.-Y. Hong, C. Peters-Lidard, A. Hou, 2011: The impact of microphysical schemes on hurricane intensity and track. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.,47, 1-16, doi: 10.1007/ s13143-011-1001-z.
Tewari, M., Coauthors, 2004: Implementation and verification of the unified Noah land surface model in the WRF model. Presented at the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, Wash., Amer. Meteor. Soc.6e91a394e2ab59a7450027a9002e4e2ahttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F286272692_Implementation_and_verification_of_the_unified_NOAH_land_surface_model_in_the_WRF_modelhttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/286272692_Implementation_and_verification_of_the_unified_NOAH_land_surface_model_in_the_WRF_modelSite H LE LW SW MR TSK T2M1 26.98 44.06 7.96 7.96 2.22 4.27 2.562 10.55 16.94 6.96 6.69 2.22 5.57 2.333 44.90 53.41 10.16 10.16 2.50 8.96 3.404 31.33 78.76 11.35 11.35 1.42 8.20 1.976 59.62 42.29 11.39 11.39 1.54 5.88 2.757 No No 7.57 7.57 1.29 4.15 1.32 data data8 25.92 169.59 12.08 12.08 0.88 1.08 1.119 15.32 164.38 10.65 10.65 1.48 6.74 1.26AVG 30.66 81.34 9.73 13.44 1.69 5.61 2.09
Tiedtke M., 1989: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev.,117, 1779-1800, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1779: ACMFSF>2.0.CO;2.10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1779:ACMFSF>2.0.CO;20bea5dc2856d147e14753723d2bfc425http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1989MWRv..117.1779Thttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989MWRv..117.1779TNot Available
Torn R. D., 2010: Performance of a mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) during the NOAA high-resolution hurricane test. Mon. Wea. Rev.,138, 4375-4392, doi: 10.1175/2010 MWR3361.1.10.1175/2010MWR3361.1add0fc3aed0772e3a11a6225c66543edhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2010MWRv..138.4375Thttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010MWRv..138.4375TAbstract An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) combined with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF; hereafter WRF) on a 36-km Atlantic basin domain is cycled over six different time periods that include the 10 tropical cyclones (TCs) selected for the NOAA High-Resolution Hurricane (HRH) test. The analysis ensemble is generated every 6 h by assimilating conventional in situ observations, synoptic dropsondes, and TC advisory position and minimum sea level pressure (SLP) data. On average, observation assimilation leads to smaller TC position errors in the analysis compared to the 6-h forecast; however, the same is true for TC minimum SLP only for tropical depressions and storms. Over the 69 HRH initialization times, TC track forecasts from a single member of the WRF EnKF ensemble has 12 h less skill compared to other operational models; the increased track error partially results from the WRF EnKF analysis having a stronger Atlantic subtropical ridge. For nonmajor TCs, the WRF EnKF forecast has lower TC minimum SLP and maximum wind speed errors compared to some operational models, particularly the GFDL model, while category-3, -4, and -5 TCs are characterized by large biases due to horizontal resolution. WRF forecasts initialized from an EnKF analysis have similar or smaller TC track, intensity, and 34-kt wind radii errors relative to those initialized from two other operational analyses, which suggests that EnKF assimilation produces the best TC forecasts for this domain. Both TC track and intensity forecasts are deficient in ensemble variance, which is at least partially due to the lack of error growth in dynamical fields and model biases.
Wang Y. Q., 2002: An explicit simulation of tropical cyclones with a triply nested movable mesh primitive equation model-TCM3. Part II: Model refinements and sensitivity to cloud microphysics parameterization. Mon. Wea. Rev.,130, 3022-3036, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<3022:AESOTC>2. 0.CO;2.
Wang Y. Q., 2009: How do outer spiral rainbands affect tropical cyclone structure and intensity? J. Atmos. Sci.,66, 1250-1273, doi: 10.1175/2008JAS2737.1.10.1175/2008JAS2737.1cd8d5604045d66cacadd3ba570056c28http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2009JAtS...66.1250Whttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009JAtS...66.1250WThe numerical results show that cooling in the outer spiral rainbands maintains both the intensity of a tropical cyclone and the compactness of its inner core, whereas heating in the outer spiral rainbands decreases the intensity but increases the size of a tropical cyclone. Overall, the presence of strong outer spiral rainbands limits the intensity of a tropical cyclone. Because heating or cooling in the outer spiral rainbands depends strongly on the relative humidity in the near-core environment, the results have implications for the formation of the annular hurricane structure, the development of concentric eyewalls, and the size change in tropical cyclones.
Wang Y. Q., 2012: Recent research progress on tropical cyclone structure and intensity. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review,1, 254-275, doi: 10.6057/2012TCRR02.05.10.6057/2012TCRR02.057ed263920a31ed30cd64f5dff29182f3http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F273123335_recent_research_progress_on_tropical_cyclone_structure_and_intensityhttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/273123335_recent_research_progress_on_tropical_cyclone_structure_and_intensityABSTRACT This article provides a balanced, brief review on the research progress in the area of tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity achieved in the past three decade. Efforts have been made to introduce basic concepts and new findings relevant to the understanding of TC structure and intensity in ways as simple and appreciate as possible. After a brief discussion on the axisymmetric and asymmetric structure of mature TCs, progress in our understanding of spiral rainbands, concentric eyewall cycle, annular hurricane structure, and the inner-core size of TCs is highlighted. This is followed by discussions on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of TCs and factors that limit TC maximum intensity. Some important remaining issues that need to be studied and addressed in the near future by the research community are identified and briefly discussed as well
Xu J., Y. Q. Wang, 2010a: Sensitivity of tropical cyclone inner-core size and intensity to the radial distribution of surface entropy flux. J. Atmos. Sci.,67, 1831-1852, doi: 10.1175/2010JAS3387.1.10.1175/2010JAS3387.107165f5203754efb3a29593130bc66behttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2010JAtS...67.1831Xhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JAtS...67.1831XNot Available
Xu J., Y. Q. Wang, 2010b: Sensitivity of the simulated tropical cyclone inner-core size to the initial vortex size. Mon. Wea. Rev.,138, 4135-4157, doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3335.1.10.1175/2010MWR3335.17e1dc9ac5a702cd3bf40a1dcb34985e7http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2010MWRv..138.4135Xhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010MWRv..138.4135XThe relative importance of the initial vortex size and the environmental relative humidity (RH) to the TC inner-core size is also evaluated. It is found that the inner-core size of the simulated storm at the mature stage depends more heavily on the initial vortex size than on the initial RH of the environment.
Yang M.-J., L. Ching, 2005: A modeling study of Typhoon Toraji (2001): Physical parameterization sensitivity and topographic effect. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 16, 177- 213.10.1080/095373205000447768cd65b09-d760-4374-901c-aea33761bfb2468b70bb2a73c394a0bf933eaf9be216http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F285737401_A_modeling_study_of_Typhoon_Toraji_2001_Physical_parameterization_sensitivity_and_topographic_effectrefpaperuri:(faba0c64f640694b4efc428735dd2494)http://www.researchgate.net/publication/285737401_A_modeling_study_of_Typhoon_Toraji_2001_Physical_parameterization_sensitivity_and_topographic_effectThis paper investigates the dependence of simulated track, central pressure, maximum wind, and accumulated rainfall of Typhoon Toraji (2001) on physical parameterizations, using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University- National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The model configuration includes three nested domains with grid size of 60, 20, and 6.67 km, respectively. Three sets of five numerical experiments on cumulus, cloud microphysics, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations are performed (15 experiments totally). Among subgrid-scale cumulus schemes tested, the simulated typhoon with the Grell scheme has the best track. For grid-scale cloud microphysics scheme examined, all storms have similar tracks, with the best simulated track using, the Goddard Graupel cloud microphysics scheme. The PBL parameterization substantially affects the simulated typhoon tracks, and the storm with the Medium-Range Forecast model PBL has track and intensity that most resemble actual observations. An experiment with the best scheme from each of three sets of physical parameterization experiments has the best performance in terms of central pressure, maximum wind and accumulated rainfall; it can simulate the westward turning of Toraji's track right before the landfall. Standard deviation and ensemble (arithmetic) mean are calculated for each set of physical parameterization experiments. The ensemble-mean track and rainfall distribution are much closer to the observations than each individual experiment. A combination of the topographically- and environmentally-induced vertical moisture fluxes, calculated based on the flux model of Lin et al. (2001), corresponded well to the hourly surface rainfall distribution. An analysis of nondimensional parameters for typhoon's track continuity over the Taiwan island shows that Typhoon Toraji's track discontinuity is consistent with the control parameter analysis proposed by Lin et al. (2002). The westward turning of Toraji's track right before the landfall may be caused by horizontal advection process due to flow blocking, on the basis on a momentum budget analysis.
Yuan J. N., X.D. Wang, Q.L. Wan, and C.X. Liu, 2007: A 28-year climatological analysis of size parameters for Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclones. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,24, 24-34, doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0024-y.10.1007/s00376-007-0024-y66067ade2ea97aa0f7f74fe981c917a2http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00376-007-0024-yhttp://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dqkxjz-e200701003.aspx正A 28-year best track dataset containing size parameters that include the radii of the 15.4 m s-1 winds (R15) and the 25.7 ms-1 winds (R26) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northwestern Pacific, the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset
Zhang C. X., Y.Q. Wang, and K. Hamilton, 2011: Improved representation of boundary layer clouds over the southeast Pacific in ARW-WRF using a modified Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev.,139, 3489-3513, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-10-05091.1.
Zhu T., D.-L. Zhang, 2006: The impact of the storm-induced SST cooling on hurricane intensity. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,23, 14-22, doi: 10.1007/s00376-006-0002-9.10.1007/s00376-006-0002-91267dc5780c303278f5f8c9e3bbac10ehttp%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00376-006-0002-9http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dqkxjz-e200601002.aspxThe effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm,accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.
Zou X. L., Q. N. Xiao, 2000: Studies on the initialization and simulation of a mature hurricane using a variational bogus data assimilation scheme. J. Atmos. Sci.,57, 836-860, doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<0836:SOTIAS>2.0.CO;2.a84be4c28d911ad2c57496a3f1da2ad9http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2000JAtS...57..836Z%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT%26high%3D03937http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28d0b04ba5bcc8a68e79b6748914ca3898%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2000JAtS...57..836Z%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT%26high%3D03937&ie=utf-8&sc_us=5902252888408546344