Barnes S. L., 1964: A technique for maximizing details in numerical weather map analysis. J. Appl. Meteor., 3, 396- 409.10.1175/1520-0450(1964)0032.0.CO;289473f927b54a735e064c9875d5b5d7ahttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1964japme...3..396bhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1964japme...3..396bThis paper summarizes the development of a convergent weighted-averaging interpolation scheme which can be used to obtain any desired amount of detail in the analysis of a set of randomly spaced data. The scheme is based on the supposition that the two-dimensional distribution of an atmospheric variable can be represented by the summation of an infinite number of independent waves, i.e., a Fourier integral representation. The practical limitations of the scheme are that the data distribution be reasonably uniform and that the data be accurate. However, the effect of inaccuracies can be controlled by stopping the convergence scheme before the data errors are greatly amplified. The scheme has been tested in the analysis of 500-mb height data over the United States producing a result with details comparable to those obtainable by careful manual analysis. A test analysis of sea level pressure based on the data obtained at only the upper air network stations produced results with essentially the same features as the analysis produced at the National Meteorological Center. Further tests based on a regional sampling of stations reporting airways data demonstrate the applicability of the scheme to mesoscale wavelengths.
Bryan G. H., J. C. Knievel, and M. D. Parker, 2006: A multimodel assessment of RKW theory's relevance to squall-line characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2772- 2792.10.1175/MWR3226.1f0815c18a0870d18d9c95d3b59d4515chttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2006MWRv..134.2772Bhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006MWRv..134.2772BThe authors evaluate whether the structure and intensity of simulated squall lines can be explained by “RKW theory,” which most specifically addresses how density currents evolve in sheared environments. In contrast to earlier studies, this study compares output from four numerical models, rather than from just one. All of the authors’ simulations support the qualitative application of RKW theory, whereby squall-line structure is primarily governed by two effects: the intensity of the squall line’s surface-based cold pool, and the low- to midlevel environmental vertical wind shear. The simulations using newly developed models generally support the theory’s quantitative application, whereby an optimal state for system structure also optimizes system intensity. However, there are significant systematic differences between the newer numerical models and the older model that was originally used to develop RKW theory. Two systematic differences are analyzed in detail, and causes for these differences are proposed.
Chang S.-F., Y.-C. Liou, J.-Z. Sun, and S.-L. Tai, 2015: The implementation of the ice-phase microphysical process into a four-dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) and its impact on parameter retrieval and quantitative precipitation nowcasting. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 1015- 1038.10.1175/JAS-D-15-0184.1fe8c8c456885c856235224125f36c8fehttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2016JAtS...73.1015Chttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JAtS...73.1015CNot Available
Crook N. A., J. Z. Sun, 2004: Analysis and forecasting of the low-level wind during the Sydney 2000 forecast demonstration project. Wea.Forecasting, 19, 151- 167.10.1175/1520-0434(2004)0192.0.CO;2ad3c3c0b2f9b5cf9c790f0034e50f916http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2004WtFor..19..151Chttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004WtFor..19..151CDuring the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) a four-dimensional variational assimilation (4DVAR) scheme was run to analyze the low-level wind field with high spatial and temporal resolution. The 4DVAR scheme finds an optimal fit to the data and a background field under the constraints of a dry boundary layer model. During the FDP, the system assimilated data from two Doppler radars, a surface mesonet, and a boundary layer profiler, and provided low-level analyses every 10 min. After the FDP, a number of experiments have been performed to test the ability of the system to provide short-term forecasts (0-60 min) of the low-level wind and convergence. Herein, the performance of the system during the FDP and the forecast experiment's performed after the FDP are described. Two strong gust front cases and one sea-breeze case that occurred during the FDP are also examined. It is found that for the strong gust front cases, the numerical forecasts improve over persistence in the 1-h time frame, whereas for the slower-moving sea-breeze case, it is difficult to improve over a persistence forecast.
Dawson D. T., M. Xue, 2006: Numerical forecasts of the 15-16 June 2002 Southern Plains mesoscale convective system: impact of mesoscale data and cloud analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1607- 1629.10.1175/MWR3141.18b3cd1a2cfbb550c197595fc2ac59569http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2006MWRv..134.1607Dhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006MWRv..134.1607DHigh-resolution explicit forecasts using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) of the 15-16 June 2002 mesoscale convective system (MCS) that occurred over the U.S. central and southern plains during the International HO Project (IHOP_2002) field experiment period are performed. The forecasts are designed to investigate the impact of mesoscale and convective-scale data on the initialization and prediction of an organized convective system. Specifically, the forecasts test the impact of special mesoscale surface and upper-air data collected by, but not necessarily specific to, IHOP_2002 and of level-II data from multiple Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler radars. The effectiveness of using 30-min assimilation cycles with the use of a complex cloud-analysis procedure and high-temporal-resolution surface data is also examined. The analyses and forecasts employ doubly nested grids, with resolutions of 9 and 3 km. Emphasis is placed on the solutions of the 3-km grid. In all forecasts, a strong, well-defined bow-shaped MCS is produced with structure and behavior similar to those of the observed system. Verification of these forecasts through both regular and phase-shifted equitable threat scores of the instantaneous composite reflectivity fields indicate that the use of the complex cloud analysis has the greatest positive impact on the prediction of the MCS, primarily by removing the otherwise needed -渟pinup- time of convection in the model. The impact of additional data networks is smaller and is reflected mainly in reducing the spinup time of the MCS too. The use of intermittent assimilation cycles appears to be quite beneficial when the assimilation window covers a time period when the MCS is present. Difficulties with verifying weather systems with high spatial and temporal intermittency are also discussed, and the use of both regular and spatially shifted equitable threat scores is found to be very beneficial in assessing the quality of the forecasts.
Dong J. L., M. Xue, and K. Droegemeier, 2011: The analysis and impact of simulated high-resolution surface observations in addition to radar data for convective storms with an ensemble Kalman filter. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 112, 41- 61.10.1007/s00703-011-0130-385d25d3d8a60adedad062c2b442e350ehttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2011map...112...41dhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011map...112...41dObserving system simulation experiments are performed using an ensemble Kalman filter to investigate the impact of surface observations in addition to radar data on convective storm analysis and forecasting. A multi-scale procedure is used in which different covariance localization radii are used for radar and surface observations. When the radar is far enough away from the main storm so that the low level data coverage is poor, a clear positive impact of surface observations is achieved when the network spacing is 20聽km or smaller. The impact of surface data increases quasi-linearly with decreasing surface network spacing until the spacing is close to the grid interval of the truth simulation. The impact of surface data is sustained or even amplified during subsequent forecasts when their impact on the analysis is significant. When microphysics-related model error is introduced, the impact of surface data is reduced but still evidently positive, and the impact also increases with network density. Through dynamic flow-dependent background error covariance, the surface observations not only correct near-surface errors, but also errors at the mid- and upper levels. State variables different from observed are also positively impacted by the observations in the analysis.
Hayden C. M., R. J. Purser, 1995: Recursive filter objective analysis of meteorological fields: Applications to NESDIS operational processing. J. Appl. Meteor., 34, 3- 15.10.1175/1520-0450-34.1.3c532b080c89955f7de70c47d65f2f24fhttp%3A%2F%2Fdocumentacion.ideam.gov.co%2Fcgi-bin%2Fkoha%2Fopac-detail.pl%3Fbiblionumber%3D32686%26shelfbrowse_itemnumber%3D34083http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995JApMe..34....3Hof these applications are given.
Hou T. J., F. Y. Kong, X. L. Chen, and H. C. Lei, 2013: Impact of 3DVAR data assimilation on the prediction of heavy rainfall over Southern China. Advances in Meteorology,Article ID 129642, http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/129642.10.1155/2013/1296421b09ad07aa6c09fc0e91db5c88814162http%3A%2F%2Fdownloads.hindawi.com%2Fjournals%2Famete%2F2013%2F129642.xmlhttp://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2013/129642.xmlThis study examines the impact of three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) on the prediction of two heavy rainfall events over Southern China by using a real-time storm-scale forecasting system. Initialized from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high-resolution data, the forecasting system is characterized by combining the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) 3DVAR package. Observations from Doppler radars, surface Automatic Weather Station (AWS) network, and radiosondes are used in the experiments to evaluate the impact of data assimilation on short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill. Results suggest that extrasurface AWS data assimilation has slight but general positive impact on rainfall location forecasts. Surface AWS data also improve model results of near-surface variables. Radiosonde data assimilation improves the QPF skill by improving rainfall position accuracy and reducing rainfall overprediction. Compared with radar data, the overall impact of additional surface and radiosonde data is smaller and is reflected primarily in reducing rainfall overestimation. The assimilation of all radar, surface, and radiosonde data has a more positive impact on the forecast skill than the assimilation of either type of data only for the two rainfall events. 1. Introduction Convective storms accompanied with heavy precipitation, hail, and damaging wind occur frequently in summer season in Southern China. To reduce damage from such severe weather, more accurate short-term forecast from convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models incorporated with robust data assimilation systems have been paid more attention [1-3]. In recent years, several studies have demonstrated that the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system is capable of analyzing different data types, by using multiple analysis passes [4-7]. Based on the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and the ARPS 3DVAR/Cloud Analysis module, a real-time hourly updated storm-scale forecasting system has been developed collaboratively by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) in the University of Oklahoma, Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau (SZMB) of China and the Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology (SIAT), Chinese Academy of Sciences. The forecasting system, called Hourly Assimilation and Prediction System, or HAPS, has been in daily real-time forecast runs since
Hsu S. A., E. A. Meindl, and D. B. Gilhousen, 1994: Determining the power-law wind-profile exponent under near-neutral stability conditions at sea. J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 757- 765.10.1175/1520-0450(1994)0332.0.CO;2e6afdf3c66e8d33a774d22aec27f18a1http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1994JApMe..33..757Hhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1994JApMe..33..757HOn the basis of 30 samples from near-simultaneous overwater measurements by pairs of anemometers located at different heights in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, the mean and standard deviation for the exponent of the power-law wind profile over the ocean under near-neutral atmospheric stability conditions were determined to be 0.11 - 0.03. Because this mean value is obtained from both deep and shallow water environments, it is recommended for use at sea to adjust the wind speed measurements at different heights to the standard height of 10 m above the mean sea surface. An example to apply this P value to estimate the momentum flux or wind stress is provided.
Kalnay E., H. Li, T. Miyoshi, S.-C. Yang, and J. Ballabrera-Poy, 2007: 4-D-Var or ensemble Kalman filter? Tellus A, 59, 758- 773.10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00261.xeeaeb031663375c71249d7ee9fdd5858http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1111%2Fj.1600-0870.2007.00261.x%2Fcitedbyhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00261.x/citedbyABSTRACT We consider the relative advantages of two advanced data assimilation systems, 4-D-Var and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), currently in use or under consideration for operational implementation. With the Lorenz model, we explore the impact of tuning assimilation parameters such as the assimilation window length and background error covariance in 4-D-Var, variance inflation in EnKF, and the effect of model errors and reduced observation coverage. For short assimilation windows EnKF gives more accurate analyses. Both systems reach similar levels of accuracy if long windows are used for 4-D-Var. For infrequent observations, when ensemble perturbations grow non-linearly and become non-Gaussian, 4-D-Var attains lower errors than EnKF. If the model is imperfect, the 4-D-Var with long windows requires weak constraint. Similar results are obtained with a quasi-geostrophic channel model. EnKF experiments made with the primitive equations SPEEDY model provide comparisons with 3-D-Var and guidance on model error and -榦bservation localization-. Results obtained using operational models and both simulated and real observations indicate that currently EnKF is becoming competitive with 4-D-Var, and that the experience acquired with each of these methods can be used to improve the other. A table summarizes the pros and cons of the two methods.
Klazura G. E., D. A. Imy, 1993: A description of the initial set of analysis products available from the NEXRAD WSR-88D system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 1293- 1311.7e0b54ac7f512a03266f58420213036ehttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D1993BAMS...74.1293K%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT%26high%3D05623http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28c084bb17cf169a3d543988969a187570%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D1993BAMS...74.1293K%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT%26high%3D05623&ie=utf-8&sc_us=1416873342511334516
Lilly D. K., 1990: Numerical prediction of thunderstorms as its time come? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 779- 798.
Lima M. A., J. W. Wilson, 2008: Convective storm initiation in a moist tropical environment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1847- 1864.10.1002/jcb.2402802099744e14538d4a4970606c699bff1d903http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2008MWRv..136.1847Lhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008MWRv..136.1847LRadar and satellite data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission–Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (TRMM–LBA) project have been examined to determine causes for convective storm initiation in the southwest Amazon region. The locations and times of storm initiation were based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol). Both the radar and the () visible data were used to identify cold pools produced by convective precipitation. These data along with high-resolution topographic data were used to determine possible convective storm triggering mechanisms. The terrain elevation varied from 100 to 600 m. Tropical forests cover the area with numerous clear-cut areas used for cattle grazing and farming. This paper presents the results from 5 February 1999. A total of 315 storms were initiated within 130 km of the S-Pol radar. This day was classified as a weak monsoon regime where convection developed in response to the diurnal cycle of solar heating. Scattered shallow cumulus during the morning developed into deep convection by early afternoon. Storm initiation began about 1100 LST and peaked around 1500–1600 LST. The causes of storm initiation were classified into four categories. The most common initiation mechanism was caused by forced lifting by a gust front (GF; 36%). Forcing by terrain (>300 m) without any other triggering mechanism accounted for 21% of the initiations and colliding GFs accounted for 16%. For the remaining 27% a triggering mechanism was not identified. Examination of all days during TRMM–LBA showed that this one detailed study day was representative of many days. A conceptual model of storm initiation and evolution is presented. The results of this study should have implications for other locations when synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms are at a minimum. These results should also have implications for very short-period forecasting techniques in any location where terrain, GFs, and colliding boundaries influence storm evolution.
Marquis J., Y. Richardson, P. Markowski, D. Dowell, J. Wurman, K. Kosiba, P. Robinson, and G. Romine, 2014: An investigation of the Goshen county, Wyoming, tornadic supercell of 5 June 2009 using EnKF assimilation of mobile mesonet and radar observations collected during VORTEX2. Part I: Experiment design and verification of the EnKF analyses. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 530- 554.10.1175/MWR-D-13-00007.16dac103a-c968-4418-9953-c542ac388ff6de406dc87a0bd96677cc874d73779150http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F273920253_An_Investigation_of_the_Goshen_County_Wyoming_Tornadic_Supercell_of_5_June_2009_Using_EnKF_Assimilation_of_Mobile_Mesonet_and_Radar_Observations_Collected_during_VORTEX2._Part_I_Experiment_Design_and_Verification_of_the_EnKF_Analysesrefpaperuri:(c5c7c6b90513f26f104a9bc099de8243)http://www.researchgate.net/publication/273920253_An_Investigation_of_the_Goshen_County_Wyoming_Tornadic_Supercell_of_5_June_2009_Using_EnKF_Assimilation_of_Mobile_Mesonet_and_Radar_Observations_Collected_during_VORTEX2._Part_I_Experiment_Design_and_Verification_of_the_EnKF_AnalysesAbstract High-resolution Doppler radar velocities and in situ surface observations collected in a tornadic supercell on 5 June 2009 during the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) are assimilated into a simulated convective storm using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). A series of EnKF experiments using a 1-km horizontal model grid spacing demonstrates the sensitivity of the cold pool and kinematic structure of the storm to the assimilation of these observations and to different model microphysics parameterizations. An experiment is performed using a finer grid spacing (500 m) and the most optimal data assimilation and model configurations from the sensitivity tests to produce a realistically evolving storm. Analyses from this experiment are verified against dual-Doppler and in situ observations and are evaluated for their potential to confidently evaluate mesocyclone-scale processes in the storm using trajectory analysis and calculations of Lagrangian vorticity budgets. In Part II of this study, these analyses will be further evaluated to learn the roles that mesocyclone-scale processes play in tornado formation, maintenance, and decay. The coldness of the simulated low-level outflow is generally insensitive to the choice of certain microphysical parameterizations, likely owing to the vast quantity of kinematic and in situ thermodynamic observations assimilated. The three-dimensional EnKF wind fields and parcel trajectories resemble those retrieved from dual-Doppler observations within the storm, suggesting that realistic four-dimensional mesocyclone-scale processes are captured. However, potential errors are found in trajectories and Lagrangian three-dimensional vorticity budget calculations performed within the mesocyclone that may be due to the coarse (2 min) temporal resolution of the analyses. Therefore, caution must be exercised when interpreting trajectories in this area of the storm.
Morrison H., G. Thompson, and V. Tatarskii, 2009: Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line: Comparison of one- and two-moment schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 991- 1007.10.1175/2008MWR2556.1d294baef7ea15176f30d98d77aab0486http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2009mwrv..137..991mhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009mwrv..137..991mNot Available
Parker M. D., 2010: Relationship between system slope and updraft intensity in squall lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3572- 3578.10.1175/2010MWR3441.191804b3dbc8bbcbc8e816ed9f3f5551chttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2010MWRv..138.3572Phttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010MWRv..138.3572PIn recent years there has been debate about whether squall lines have an 'optimal state.' It has been repeatedly demonstrated that the slope of a squall line's convective region is related to the comparative magnitudes of the squall line's cold pool and the base-state vertical wind shear. The present work addresses a related assertion, that squall-line intensity ought to be maximized for an upright updraft zone. A simple demonstration shows that upright systems realize more of their buoyancy because their attendant downward-directed perturbation pressure gradient accelerations are weaker.
Peterson E. W., J. P. Hennessey Jr., 1978: On the use of power laws for estimates of wind power potential. J. Appl. Meteor., 17, 390- 394.b4cc986e83eef7a3e93312a229d8d112http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrcresearchpress.com%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Drefg17%2Fref17%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1139%252Fx2012-038%26key%3D10.1175%252F1520-0450%281978%290172.0.CO%253B2http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28956b3f3ced921aacadeebde5dc198be1%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrcresearchpress.com%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Drefg17%2Fref17%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1139%252Fx2012-038%26key%3D10.1175%252F1520-0450%281978%290172.0.CO%253B2&ie=utf-8&sc_us=13409902568254460047
Pleim J. E., 2007: A combined local and nonlocal closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer. Part II: Application and evaluation in a mesoscale meteorological model. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 46, 1396- 1409.10.1175/JAM2534.1f9278fcfd83c541dd043d594ea6d3ce4http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2007JApMC..46.1396Phttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007JApMC..46.1396PA new combined local and nonlocal closure atmospheric boundary layer model called the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2, (ACM2) was described and tested in one-dimensional form and was compared with large-eddy simulations and field data in Part I. Herein, the incorporation of the ACM2 into the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-揘CAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is described. Model simulations using the MM5 with the ACM2 are made for the summer of 2004 and evaluated through comparison with surface meteorological measurements, rawinsonde profile measurements, and observed planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights derived from radar wind profilers. Overall model performance is as good as or better than similar MM5 evaluation studies. The MM5 simulations with the ACM2 compare particularly well to PBL heights derived from radar wind profilers during the afternoon hours. The ACM2 is designed to simulate the vertical mixing of any modeled quantity realistically for both meteorological models and air quality models. The next step, to be described in a subsequent article, is to incorporate the ACM2 into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for testing and evaluation.
Pu Z. X., H. L. Zhang, and J. Anderson, 2013: Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of near-surface observations over complex terrain: Comparison with 3DVAR for short-range forecasts. Tellus A, 65, 19620.10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.196202e0cf404d7cedde57a0eeda7d9d9adedhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.oalib.com%2Fpaper%2F2230977http://www.oalib.com/paper/2230977Surface observations are the main conventional observations for weather forecasts. However, in modern numerical weather prediction, the use of surface observations, especially those data over complex terrain, remains a unique challenge. There are fundamental difficulties in assimilating surface observations with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR). In this study, a series of observing system simulation experiments is performed with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), an advanced data assimilation method to compare its ability to assimilate surface observations with 3DVAR. Using the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, results from the assimilation of observations at a single observation station demonstrate that the EnKF can overcome some fundamental limitations that 3DVAR has in assimilating surface observations over complex terrain. Specifically, through its flow-dependent background error term, the EnKF produces more realistic analysis increments over complex terrain in general. More comprehensive comparisons are conducted in a short-range weather forecast using a synoptic case with two severe weather systems: a frontal system over complex terrain in the western US and a low-level jet system over the Great Plains. The EnKF is better than 3DVAR for the analysis and forecast of the low-level jet system over flat terrain. However, over complex terrain, the EnKF clearly performs better than 3DVAR, because it is more capable of handling surface data in the presence of terrain misrepresentation. In addition, results also suggest that caution is needed when dealing with errors due to model terrain representation. Data rejection may cause degraded forecasts because data are sparse over complex terrain. Owing to the use of limited ensemble sizes, the EnKF analysis is sensitive to the choice of horizontal and vertical localisation scales.
Putnam B. J., M. Xue, Y. Jung, N. Snook, and G. F. Zhang, 2014: The analysis and prediction of microphysical states and polarimetric radar variables in a mesoscale convective system using double-moment microphysics, multinetwork radar data, and the ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 141- 162.10.1175/MWR-D-13-00042.1b3e39f14-feaa-42fe-8e97-8d8d1399d243042843a5ae6f1ade44911ebda729c9c3http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F257943233_The_Analysis_and_Prediction_of_Microphysical_States_and_Polarimetric_Variables_of_a_Mesoscale_Convective_System_Using_Double-Moment_Microphysics_Multi-Network_Radar_Data_and_the_Ensemble_Kalman_Filter%3Fev%3Dauth_pubrefpaperuri:(94d6f164e4aabd191845d757a7dbbe2e)http://www.researchgate.net/publication/257943233_The_Analysis_and_Prediction_of_Microphysical_States_and_Polarimetric_Variables_of_a_Mesoscale_Convective_System_Using_Double-Moment_Microphysics_Multi-Network_Radar_Data_and_the_Ensemble_Kalman_Filter?ev=auth_pubAbstract Doppler radar data are assimilated with an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) in combination with a double-moment (DM) microphysics scheme in order to improve the analysis and forecast of microphysical states and precipitation structures within a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that passed over western Oklahoma on 8-9 May 2007. Reflectivity and radial velocity data from five operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) S-band radars as well as four experimental Collaborative and Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) X-band radars are assimilated over a 1-h period using either single-moment (SM) or DM microphysics schemes within the forecast ensemble. Three-hour deterministic forecasts are initialized from the final ensemble mean analyses using a SM or DM scheme, respectively. Polarimetric radar variables are simulated from the analyses and compared with polarimetric WSR-88D observations for verification. EnKF assimilation of radar data using a multimoment microphysics scheme for an MCS case has not previously been documented in the literature. The use of DM microphysics during data assimilation improves simulated polarimetric variables through differentiation of particle size distributions (PSDs) within the stratiform and convective regions. The DM forecast initiated from the DM analysis shows significant qualitative improvement over the assimilation and forecast using SM microphysics in terms of the location and structure of the MCS precipitation. Quantitative precipitation forecasting skills are also improved in the DM forecast. Better handling of the PSDs by the DM scheme is believed to be responsible for the improved prediction of the surface cold pool, a stronger leading convective line, and improved areal extent of stratiform precipitation.
Rotunno R., J. B. Klemp, and M. L. Weisman, 1988: A theory for strong, long-lived squall lines. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 463- 485.10.1175/1520-0469(1988)0452.0.CO;27340669ce79a156a8c5d08b0f5e87b54http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1988JAtS...45..463Rhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1988JAtS...45..463RNot Available
Schenkman A. D., M. Xue, A. Shapiro, K. Brewster, and J. D. Gao, 2011a: The analysis and prediction of the 8-9 May 2007 Oklahoma tornadic mesoscale Convective system by assimilating WSR-88D and CASA radar data using 3DVAR. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 224- 246.182a191f6387f27bd0454a0b6ed76247http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2011MWRv..139..224S%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT%26high%3D12602http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%286f6fdfe93c08e7720b569feb3e50daca%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-data_query%3Fbibcode%3D2011MWRv..139..224S%26db_key%3DPHY%26link_type%3DABSTRACT%26high%3D12602&ie=utf-8&sc_us=15673482078073305551
Schenkman A. D., M. Xue, A. Shapiro, K. Brewster, and J. D. Gao, 2011b: Impact of CASA radar and Oklahoma mesonet data assimilation on the analysis and prediction of tornadic mesovortices in an MCS. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3422- 3445.10.1175/MWR-D-10-05051.14edf6fb9d2e0f93b488d39944232105fhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2011MWRv..139.3422Shttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011MWRv..139.3422SQualitative comparison with observations shows highly accurate forecasts of mesovortices up to 80 min in advance of their genesis are obtained when the low-level shear in advance of the gust front is effectively analyzed. Accurate analysis of the low-level shear profile relies on assimilating high-resolution low-level wind information. The most accurate analysis (and resulting prediction) is obtained in experiments that assimilate low-level radial velocity data from the CASA radars. Assimilation of 5-min observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet has a substantial positive impact on the analysis and forecast when high-resolution low-level wind observations from CASA are absent; when the low-level CASA wind data are assimilated, the impact of Mesonet data is smaller. Experiments that do not assimilate low-level wind data from CASA radars are unable to accurately resolve the low-level shear profile and gust front structure, precluding accurate prediction of mesovortex development.
Snook N., M. Xue, and Y. Jung, 2015: Multiscale EnKF assimilation of radar and conventional observations and ensemble forecasting for a tornadic mesoscale convective system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 1035- 1057.10.1175/MWR-D-13-00262.1b70d2a68a3390c8d93eefd7254f44d4bhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2015MWRv..143.1035Shttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015MWRv..143.1035SNot Available
Sobash R. A., D. J. Stensrud, 2015: Assimilating surface mesonet observations with the EnKF to improve ensemble forecasts of convection initiation on 29 May 2012. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 3700- 3725.10.1175/MWR-D-14-00126.16cb97de5f1e1755a2ff21776665bf885http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2015MWRv..143.3700Shttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015MWRv..143.3700SThe 5-min assimilation of mesonet data improved forecasts of the placement and timing of CI for this particular event due to the ability of mesonet data to capture rapidly evolving mesoscale features and to constrain model biases, particularly surface moisture errors, during the cycling period.
Sun J. Z., N. A. Crook, 1997: Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint. Part I: Model development and simulated data experiments. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1642- 1661.10.1175/1520-0469(1997)0542.0.CO;28b6a26dd-0480-497e-94f5-b3ac0e10a8d14d65fad43479cedc983061dbc7fe9168http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1997jats...54.1642srefpaperuri:(3442f4439a64c47314ac768eea6c1f42)http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997jats...54.1642sThe purpose of the research reported in this paper is to develop a variational data analysis system that can be used to assimilate data from one or more Doppler radars. In the first part of this two-part study, the technique used in this analysis system is described and tested using data from a simulated warm rain convective storm. The analysis system applies the 4D variational data assimilation technique to a cloud-scale model with a warm rain parameterization scheme. The 3D wind, thermodynamical, and microphysical fields are determined by minimizing a cost function, defined by the difference between both radar observed radial velocities and reflectivities (or rainwater mixing ratio) and their model predictions. The adjoint of the numerical model is used to provide the sensitivity of the cost function with respect to the control variables.Experiments using data from a simulated convective storm demonstrated that the variational analysis system is able to retrieve the detailed structure of wind, thermodynamics, and microphysics using either dual-Doppler or single-Doppler information. However, less accurate velocity fields are obtained when single-Doppler data were used. In both cases, retrieving the temperature field is more difficult than the retrieval of the other fields. Results also show that assimilating the rainwater mixing ratio obtained from the reflectivity data results in a better performance of the retrieval procedure than directly assimilating the reflectivity. It is also found that the system is robust to variations in the Z-qrelation, but the microphysical retrieval is quite sensitive to parameters in the warm rain scheme. The technique is robust to random errors in radial velocity and calibration errors in reflectivity.
Sun J. Z., N. A. Crook, 1998: Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint. Part II: Retrieval experiments of an observed Florida convective storm. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 835- 852.10.1175/1520-0469(1998)0552.0.CO;21cebba5079f4d1ed94947fe25caff633http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1998JAtS...55..835Shttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998JAtS...55..835SAbstract The variational Doppler radar analysis system developed in part I of this study is tested on a Florida airmass storm observed during the Convection and Precipitation/ Electrification Experiment. The 3D wind, temperature, and microphysical structure of this storm are obtained by minimizing the difference between the radar-observed radial velocities and rainwater mixing ratios (derived from reflectivity) and their model predictions. Retrieval experiments are carried out to assimilate information from one or two radars. The retrieved fields are compared with measurements of two aircraft penetrating the storm at different heights. The retrieved wind, thermodynamical, and microphysical fields indicate that the minimization converges to a solution consistent with the input velocity and rainwater fields. The primary difference between using single-Doppler and dual-Doppler information is the reduction of the peak strength of the storm on the order of 10% when information from only one radar is provided. ...
Sun J. Z., N. A. Crook, 2001: Real-time low-level wind and temperature analysis using single WSR-88D data. Wea.Forecasting, 16, 117- 132.10.1175/1520-0434(2001)0162.0.CO;2643be36421889bb9613fd0314c6b382fhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2001WtFor..16..117Shttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001WtFor..16..117SAbstract A four-dimensional variational Doppler radar analysis system (VDRAS) has been developed and implemented at a weather forecast office to produce real-time boundary layer wind and temperature analyses using WSR-88D radar data. This paper describes significant changes made to convert VDRAS from a research tool to a real-time analysis system and presents results of low-level wind and temperature analysis using operational radar data. In order to produce continuous analyses with time, VDRAS was implemented with a cycling procedure, in which the analysis from the previous cycle is used as a first guess and background for the next cycle. Other enhancements in this real-time system include direct assimilation of data on constant elevation angle levels, addition of mesonet observations, inclusion of an analysis background term, and continuous updating of lateral boundary conditions. An observed case of a line of storms and strong outflow is used to examine the performance of the real-time analysis system ...
Sun J. Z., Y. Zhang, 2008: Analysis and prediction of a squall line observed during IHOP using multiple WSR-88D observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2364- 2388.10.1175/2007MWR2205.1117507e0fb93cf08d933443bebb23f23http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2008mwrv..136.2364shttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008mwrv..136.2364sAbstract This paper presents a case study on the assimilation of observations from multiple Doppler radars of the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) network. A squall-line case documented during the International H 2 O Project (IHOP_2002) is used for the study. Radar radial velocity and reflectivity observations from four NEXRADs are assimilated into a convection-permitting model using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) scheme. A mesoscale analysis using a supplementary sounding, velocity-揳zimuth display (VAD) profiles, and surface observations from Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METAR) are produced and used to provide a background and boundary conditions for the 4DVAR radar data assimilation. Impact of the radar data assimilation is assessed by verifying the skill of the subsequent very short-term (5 h) forecasts. Assimilation and forecasting experiments are conducted to examine the impact of radar data assimilation on the subsequent precipitation forecasts. It is found that the 4DVAR radar data assimilation significantly reduces the model spinup required in the experiments without radar data assimilation, resulting in significantly improved 5-h forecasts. Additional experiments are conducted to study the sensitivity of the precipitation forecasts with respect to 4DVAR cycling configurations. Results from these experiments suggest that the forecasts with three 4DVAR cycles are improved over those with cold start, but the cycling impact seems to diminish with more cycles. The impact of observations from each of the individual radars is also examined by conducting a set of experiments in which data from each radar are alternately excluded. It is found that the accurate analysis of the environmental wind surrounding the convective cells is important in successfully predicting the squall line.
Sun J. Z., D. W. Flicker, and D. K. Lilly, 1991: Recovery of three-dimensional wind and temperature fields from simulated single-Doppler radar data. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 876- 890.10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0876:ROTDWA>2.0.CO;2d40b6c10161ffd938b403025b94950a0http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1991jats...48..876shttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1991jats...48..876sA method for recovering the full three-dimensional wind and temperature fields from single-Doppler radar data is developed and demonstrated. This method uses a dynamic model, and attempts to determine the initial conditions of the unobserved flow and thermodynamic fields that have generated the time sequence of observed fields. A cost function is defined to measure the difference between the model solutions of the observed variables and the observations. A set of adjoint equations is constructed to determine the sensitivity of the cost function to initial state errors in those not observed. The initial state variables are then adjusted to minimize those errors.Several experiments are conducted using simulated observations produced by a control run of a dry convection model. It is shown that the method is able to determine the spatial structures of the unobserved velocity components and temperature effectively; and the performance is enhanced by the use of a temporal smoothness constraint. The method is not sensitive to moderate amplitude random observational errors.
Sun J. Z., M. X. Chen, and Y. C. Wang, 2010: A frequent-updating analysis system based on radar, surface, and mesoscale model data for the Beijing 2008 forecast demonstration project. Wea.Forecasting, 25, 1715- 1735.10.1175/2010WAF2222336.1ee57e36d81b1db1db9c86fef11064778http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2010WtFor..25.1715Shttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010WtFor..25.1715SThe Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) was implemented in Beijing, China, and contributed to the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) in support of the Beijing Summer Olympics. VDRAS is a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system that produces frequently updated analyses using Doppler radar radial velocities and reflectivities, surface observations, and mesoscale model data. The system was tested in real time during the B08FDP pretrials in the summers of 2006 and 2007 and run during the Olympics to assist the 0-6-h convective weather nowcasting. This paper provides a description of the upgraded system and its Beijing implementation, an evaluation of the system performance using data collected during the pretrials, and its utility on convective weather nowcasting through two case studies. Verification of VDRAS wind against a wind profiler shows that the analyzed wind is reasonably accurate with a smaller RMS difference for 2006 than for 2007 due to better radar data coverage in 2006. The analyzed cold pools in three convective episodes are compared with surface observations at selected stations. The result shows good agreement between the analysis and the observations. The two case studies demonstrate the role that VDRAS could play in nowcasting convective initiation.
Tai S.-L., Y.-C. Liou, J.-Z. Sun, S.-F. Chang, and M.-C. Kuo, 2011: Precipitation forecasting using Doppler radar data, a cloud model with adjoint, and the weather research and forecasting model: Real case studies during SoWMEX in Taiwan. Wea.Forecasting, 26, 975- 992.10.1175/WAF-D-11-00019.148687b7823d8a78580f1ac1c0174a43chttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2011WtFor..26..975Thttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011WtFor..26..975TNot Available
Tompkins A. M., 2001: Organization of tropical convection in low vertical wind shears: The role of cold pools. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1650- 1672.10.1175/1520-0469(2001)0582.0.CO;2febb366452ed64d8ed59949b796bb94fhttp%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2001JAtS...58..529Thttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JAtS...58..529TAbstract A modeling study is conducted to gain insight into the factors that control the intensity and organization of tropical convection, and in particular to examine if organization occurs in the absence of factors such as vertical wind shear or underlying sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. The control experiment integrates a cloud-resolving model for 15 days using a 3D domain exceeding 1000 km in length, with no imposed winds, and horizontally uniform SST and forcing for convection. After 2 days of random activity, the convection organizes into clusters with dimensions of approximately 200 km. Convective systems propagate through the clusters at speeds of 2–3 m s611, while the clusters themselves propagate at minimal speeds of around 0.5 m s611. Examining the thermodynamic structure of the model domain, it is found that the convective free bands separating the clusters are very dry throughout the troposphere, and due to virtual temperature effects, are correspondingly warmer in the lower tropospher...
Weisman M. L., J. B. Klemp, and R. Rotunno, 1988: Structure and evolution of numerically simulated squall lines. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1990- 2013.10.1175/1520-0469(1988)0452.0.CO;29ce3b85dddf3c2045aed8899e15ae785http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1988JAtS...45.1990Whttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1988JAtS...45.1990WUsing a three-dimensional numerical cloud model, we investigate the effects of vertical wind shear on squall-line structure and evolution over a wide range of shear magnitudes, depths, and orientations relative to the line. We find that the simulated squall lines are most sensitive to the magnitude of the component of shear perpendicular to the line, and that we may reproduce much of the range of observed structures by varying this single parameter. For weak shear, a line of initially upright-to-downshear-tilted short-lived cells quickly tilts upshear, producing a wide band of weaker cells extending behind the surface outflow boundary. For moderate-to-strong shear, the circulation remains upright-to-downshear tilted for longer periods of time, with vigorous, short-lived cells confined to a relatively narrow band along the system's leading edge. At later times, however, these systems may also weaken as the circulation tilts upshear. For strong, deep shears oriented obliquely to the line, the squall line may be composed of quasi-steady, three-dimensional supercells. The squall-line lifecyle that occurs in most of the simulations is dependent on both the strength of the developing cold pool, which induces an upshear-tilted circulation, and the strength of the ambient low-level shear ahead of the line, which promotes a circulation tilting the system downshear. When these two factors are in balance, the overall system circulation remains upright, and we obtain the optimal conditions for deep lifting that promotes the regeneration of strong cells along the outflow boundary. In the current experiments, this optimal state occurs with 15-25 m sof velocity change over the lowest 2.5 km AGL.
Weygand t, S. S., A. Shapiro, K. K. Droegemeier, 2002a: Retrieval of model initial fields from single-Doppler observations of a supercell thunderstorm. Part II: Thermodynamic retrieval and numerical prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 454- 476.10.1175/1520-0493(2002)1302.0.CO;2f7d8d20cc0910e4e99f6e6172e756d34http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fresolve%2Freference%2FADS%3Fid%3D2002MWRv..130..454Whttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/ADS?id=2002MWRv..130..454WIn this two-part study, a single-Doppler parameter retrieval technique is developed and applied to a real-data case to provide model initial conditions for a short-range prediction of a supercell thunderstorm. The technique consists of the sequential application of a single-Doppler velocity retrieval (SDVR), followed by a variational velocity adjustment, a thermodynamic retrieval, and a moisture specification step. In Part I, the SDVR procedure is described and results from its application to a supercell thunderstorm are presented. In Part II, results from the thermodynamic retrieval and the numerical model prediction for this same case are presented. For comparison, results from parallel sets of experiments using dual-Doppler-derived winds and winds obtained from the simplified velocity retrieval described in Part I are also shown. Following the SDVR, the retrieved wind fields (available only within the storm volume) are blended with a base-state background field obtained from a proximity sounding. The blended fields are then variationally adjusted to preserve anelastic mass conservation and the observed radial velocity. A Gal-Chen type thermodynamic retrieval procedure is then applied to the adjusted wind fields. For all experiments (full retrieval, simplified retrieval, and dual Doppler), the resultant perturbation pressure and potential temperature fields agree qualitatively with expectations for a deep-convective storm. An analysis of the magnitude of the various terms in the vertical momentum equation for both the full retrieval and dual-Doppler experiments indicates a reasonable agreement with predictions from linear theory. In addition, the perturbation pressure and vorticity fields for both the full retrieval and dual-Doppler experiments are in reasonable agreement with linear theory predictions for deep convection in sheared flow. Following a simple moisture specification step, short-range numerical predictions are initiated for both retrieval experiments and the dual-Doppler experiment. In the full single-Doppler retrieval and dual-Doppler cases, the general storm evolution and deviant storm motion are reasonably well predicted for a period of about 35 minutes. In contrast, the storm initialized using the simplified wind retrieval decays too rapidly, indicating that the additional information obtained by the full wind retrieval (primarily low-level polar vorticity) is vital to the success of the numerical prediction. Sensitivity experiments using the initial fields from the full retrieval indicate that the predicted storm evolution is strongly dependent on the initial moisture fields. Overall, the numerical prediction results suggest at least some degree of short-term predictability for this storm and provide an impetus for continued development of single-Doppler retrieval procedures.
Weygand t, S. S., A. Shapiro, K. K. Droegemeier, 2002b: Retrieval of model initial fields from single-Doppler observations of a supercell thunderstorm. Part I: Single-Doppler velocity retrieval. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 433- 453.10.1175/1520-0493(2002)1302.0.CO;2269363ce6f1a21cc73ae9283253293f8http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2002MWRv..130..433Whttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002MWRv..130..433WAbstract In this two-part study, a single-Doppler parameter retrieval technique is developed and applied to a real-data case to provide initial conditions for a short-range prediction of a supercell thunderstorm. The technique consists of the sequential application of a single-Doppler velocity retrieval (SDVR), followed by a variational velocity adjustment, a thermodynamic retrieval, and a moisture specification step. By utilizing a sequence of retrievals in this manner, some of the difficulties associated with full-model adjoints (possible solution nonuniqueness and large computational expense) can be circumvented. In Part I, the SDVR procedure and present results from its application to a deep-convective storm are discussed. Part II focuses on the thermodynamic retrieval and subsequent numerical prediction. For the SDVR, Shapiro's reflectivity conservation-based method is adapted by applying it in a moving reference frame. Verification of the retrieved wind fields against corresponding dual-Doppler anal...
Yussouf N., Dowell D. C., Wicker L. J., Knopfmeier K. H., & Wheatley D. M., 2015: Storm-scale data assimilation and ensemble forecasts for the 27 April 2011 severe weather outbreak in Alabama. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143( 8), 3044- 3066.10.1175/MWR-D-14-00268.1cf1d2afc418811798f2295ae856758f3http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2015MWRv..143.3044Yhttp://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015MWRv..143.3044YNot Available
Zhang F. Q., C. Snyder, and J. Z. Sun, 2004: Impacts of initial estimate and observation availability on convective-scale data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1238- 1253.10.1007/BF016081165e0c2171e0056b80191c93ca77628631http%3A%2F%2Fciteseer.ist.psu.edu%2Fshowciting%3Fcid%3D3855060http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/showciting?cid=3855060Peer reviewed