doi:10.1007/s00376-016-6048-4

Annamalai H., S. Kida, and J. Hafner, 2010: Potential impact of the tropical Indian Ocean-Indonesian Seas on El Niño characteristics. J.Climate, 23, 3933- 3952.10.1175/2010JCLI3396.1

741f7f05b7753c79422a73697d0454a8

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cabdirect.org%2Fabstracts%2F20103282279.html

http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20103282279.htmlEncouraged by these results, the authors further examined the processes that cause cold SST anomalies over the Indonesian seas using an ocean model. Sensitivity experiments suggest that local wind anomalies, through stronger surface heat loss and evaporation, and subsurface upwelling are the primary causes. The present results imply that in coupled models, a proper representation of regional air–sea interactions over the equatorial Indo-Pacific warm pool may be important to understand and predict the amplitude of El Ni09o.

Annamalai H., S. P. Xie, J. P. McCreary, and R. Murtugudde, 2005: Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño. J.Climate, 18, 302- 319.10.1175/JCLI-3268.1

5b37f54ddd8847967ae1442cc9bf8e48

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2005JCli...18..302A

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005JCli...18..302APrior to the 1976-77 climate shift (1950-76), sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean consisted of a basinwide warming during boreal fall of the developing phase of most El Ninos, whereas after the shift (1977-99) they had an east-west asymmetry -- a consequence of El Nino being associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal mode. In this study, the possible impact of these contrasting SST patterns on the ongoing El Nino is investigated, using atmospheric reanalysis products and solutions to both an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and a simple atmospheric model (LBM), with the latter used to identify basic processes. Specifically, analyses of reanalysis products during the El Nino onset indicate that after the climate shift a low-level anticyclone over the South China Sea was shifted into the Bay of Bengal and that equatorial westerly anomalies in the Pacific Ocean were considerably stronger. The present study focuses on determining influence of Indian Ocean SST on these changes.A suite of AGCM experiments, each consisting of a 10-member ensemble, is carried out to assess the relative importance of remote (Pacific) versus local (Indian Ocean) SST anomalies in determining precipitation anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Solutions indicate that both local and remote SST anomalies are necessary for realistic simulations, with convection in the tropical west Pacific and the subsequent development of the South China Sea anticyclone being particularly sensitive to Indian Ocean SST anomalies. Prior to the climate shift, the basinwide Indian Ocean SST anomalies generate an atmospheric Kelvin wave associated with easterly flow over the equatorial west-central Pacific, thereby weakening the westerly anomalies associated with the developing El Nino. In contrast, after the shift, the east-west contrast in Indian Ocean SST anomalies does not generate a significant Kelvin wave response, and there is little effect on the El Nino-induced westerlies. The Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) solutions confirm the AGCM's results.

Balmaseda M. A., K. Mogensen, and A. Weaver, 2013: Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor.Soc, 139, 1131- 1161 .e13b6b23d5a8db75db04cc2154c053f2

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.2063%2Ffull

http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%280c8f8f63dff5e881b0ccca8f1b8a74bd%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.2063%2Ffull&ie=utf-8&sc_us=7680070861911868793

Behera S. K., T. Yamagata, 2003: Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the southern oscillation. J. Meteor. Soc.Japan, 81, 169- 177.10.2151/jmsj.81.169

65f69e4664873efc1464da5a2468deb9

http%3A%2F%2Fci.nii.ac.jp%2Fnaid%2F10013696273%2Fen

http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/10013696273/enThe influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the interannual atmospheric pressure variability of the Indo-Pacific sector is investigated. Statistical correlation between the IOD index and the global sea level pressure anomalies demonstrates that loadings of opposite polarity occupy the western and the eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. The area of positive correlation coefficient in the eastern part even extends to the Australian region, and the IOD index has a peak correlation coefficient of about 0.4 with the Darwin pressure index, i.e. the western pole of the Southern Oscillation, when the former leads the latter by one month. The correlation analysis with seasonally stratified data further confirms the lead role of the IOD. The lOD-Darwin relation has undergone interdecadal changes ; in the last 50 years the correlation is highest during the most recent decade of 1990-99, and weakest during 1980-89.a

Carton J. A., B. S. Giese, 2008: A reanalysis of ocean climate using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2999- 3017.454a78caf21a0c20ffebed73838f4b6a

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrcresearchpress.com%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Drefg15%2Fref15%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1139%252Fcjfas-2014-0524%26key%3D10.1175%252F2007MWR1978.1

http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28d49e7ec0aacf61ec20ac4c5d8331d5d0%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrcresearchpress.com%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Drefg15%2Fref15%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.1139%252Fcjfas-2014-0524%26key%3D10.1175%252F2007MWR1978.1&ie=utf-8&sc_us=17162769380036851920

Cohen J., P. Cohen, 1983: Applied Multiple Regression/ Correlation Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,545 pp.9fdc6933a15a95f1939027689ca6086d

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F245453524_Applied_multiple_regressioncorrelation

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/245453524_Applied_multiple_regressioncorrelation

Ding R. Q., J. P. Li, 2012: Influences of ENSO teleconnection on the persistence of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Climate,25, 8177-8195, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00739.1.10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00739.1

b4692c38cd731e2f7407b3adf0b71137

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2013EGUGA..15.1162D

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.1162DThe Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) alone can cause a weak WPB in the SEIO. El Nino events co-occurring with positive IOD further strengthen the SEIO WPB. The SEIO WPB appears to be more strongly influenced by ENSO than by the IOD. In contrast, the WIO SPB and the SCS FPB are relatively independent of the IOD.

Dommenget D., T. Bayr, and C. Frauen, 2013: Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climate Dyn., 40, 2825- 2847.10.1007/s00382-012-1475-0

e1c30d7d8a05e20580685d6308f2b519

http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs00382-012-1475-0

http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1475-0In the study present here is is shown that the non-linearity (skewness) of El Ni09o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that is usually described as differences in the amplitudes of El Nino and La Nina events, also extents to the spatial SST pattern of events and to the time evolution of events. The analysis presented is based on observations, the CMIP3 model data base and on idealized simplified ENSO models. Is is shown that significant differences in the spatial pattern between positive (El Ni09o) vs. negative (La Ni09a) and strong vs. weak events exist, which is mostly describing the difference between central and east Pacific events. The Bjerknes feedbacks and time evolution of strong ENSO events also show strong asymmetries, with strong El Ni09os being forced more strongly by zonal wind stress than by thermocline depth anomalies and are followed by La Ni09a events. The key non-linearity in the Bjerknes feedbacks is the zonal wind stress response to sea surface temperature anomalies, which during strong El Ni09o events is stronger and shifted to the east relative to strong La Ni09a events, supporting the eastward shifted El Ni09o pattern and the asymmetric time evolution. The observational results are supported by analysis of state of the art coupled general circulation models and by a simplified hybrid coupled ENSO model. Out of the 24 CMIP3 coupled climate models only 4 models are capable of simulating the spatial pattern and time evolution non-linearity realistically. All these four models strongly support the asymmetric forcings of ENSO events by zonal wind stress and thermocline depth anomalies. Based on the simplified hybrid coupled RECHOZ model of ENSO it can be shown that the non-linear zonal wind stress response to SST anomalies causes the asymmetric forcings of ENSO events. On the basis of 100 perfect model ensemble forecasts with the RECHOZ model it can further be illustrated, that strong La Ni09a events are more predictable than strong El Ni09o events due to the non-linear zonal wind stress response to SST anomalies.

Drushka K., J. Sprintall, S. T. Gille, and I. Brodjonegoro, 2010: Vertical structure of Kelvin waves in the Indonesian Throughflow exit passages.. J. Phys. Oceanogr, 40, 1965- 1987.10.1016/B978-012374473-9.00602-0

865e0b31-c318-4cec-8633-33680da5c19d

a2eb81dfd2215c48b054ff434df861b8

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FB9780123744739006020

refpaperuri:(5c1b64a6b406abce0a0553d3c2ea7787)

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123744739006020The Indonesian seas play a unique role in providing the only open pathway that connects two major ocean basins at tropical latitudes. On average, the sea level is higher on the western Pacific side of the Indonesian archipelago compared to the eastern Indian side. This pressure gradient generates a transport of water and their properties from the Pacific toward the Indian Ocean. This flow from the Pacific Ocean into the Indian Ocean is known as the Indonesian Throughflow. The warmer water that enters from the Pacific can be traced throughout the Indonesian seas, and then followed within the surface to intermediate depths as a distinct low-salinity tongue in the Indian Ocean. As such, the Throughflow forms the ‘warm’ water route for the global thermohaline circulation and therefore impacts the regional and global climate system. Because of its proximity to Asia and Australia, the circulation and transport in the Indonesian seas has a large seasonal variation due to the influence of the reversing annual wind patterns associated with the Asian–Australian monsoon system. During the different monsoon seasons, waters of different sources from both the Indian and Pacific Oceans flow into the Indonesian archipelago and cause variability in temperature, salinity, and other properties. Local processes within the Indonesian seas related to the regional monsoon winds such as upwelling and downwelling, along with the tides, air–sea heat fluxes, and voluminous precipitation and associated river runoff, also act to change the Pacific temperature and salinity stratification into the distinctly fresh Indonesian seas profile. These changes in the physical properties of the water are linked to the behavior, migration pattern, and the seasonal distribution of the phytoplankton and pelagic fish species that live within the Indonesian seas. Thus a knowledge and understanding of the pathways and variability of the Indonesian Throughflow and its properties is important for the region's people, who depend on the sea for their very food and livelihood, and also to help develop management plans to sustain these valuable and limited maritime resources.

Du Y., S.-P. Xie, Y.-L. Yang, X.-T. Zheng, L. Liu, and G. Huang, 2013: Indian Ocean variability in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: The basin mode. J. Climate,26, 7240-7266, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00678.1.10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00678.1

085ac17ba27ef1ea750fe5deab445728

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F268689332_Indian_Ocean_Variability_in_the_CMIP5_Multimodel_Ensemble_The_Basin_Mode

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/268689332_Indian_Ocean_Variability_in_the_CMIP5_Multimodel_Ensemble_The_Basin_ModeThis study evaluates the simulation of the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode and relevant physical processes in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Historical runs from 20 CMIP5 models are available for the analysis. They reproduce the IOB mode and its close relationship to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Half of the models capture key IOB processes: a downwelling oceanic Rossby wave in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) precedes the IOB development in boreal fall and triggers an antisymmetric wind anomaly pattern across the equator in the following spring. The anomalous wind pattern induces a second warming in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) through summer and sustains anticyclonic wind anomalies in the northwest Pacific by radiating a warm tropospheric Kelvin wave. The second warming in the NIO is indicative of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the interior TIO. More than half of the models display a double peak in NIO warming, as observed following El Nino, while the rest show only one winter peak. The intermodel diversity in the characteristics of the IOB mode seems related to the thermocline adjustment in the south TIO to ENSO-induced wind variations. Almost all the models show multidecadal variations in IOB variance, possibly modulated by ENSO.

England, M. H., F. Huang, 2005: On the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow and its linkage with ENSO. J.Climate, 18, 1435- 1444.5e5a0a1b0238a49692cfd471f80f4f2f

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bioone.org%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Di0883-1351-30-1-66-England1%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.2110%252Fpalo.2013.061%26key%3D10.1175%252FJCLI3322.1

http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%281b04b79f391bd7ea701ce2355faa9528%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bioone.org%2Fservlet%2Flinkout%3Fsuffix%3Di0883-1351-30-1-66-England1%26dbid%3D16%26doi%3D10.2110%252Fpalo.2013.061%26key%3D10.1175%252FJCLI3322.1&ie=utf-8&sc_us=16512953132509483130

Izumo, T., Coauthors, 2010: Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on following year's El Niño. Nature Geoscience, 3, 168- 172

Izumo T., M. Lengaigne, J. Vialard, J.-J. Luo, T. Yamagata, G. Madec, 2014: Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific recharge on the following year's El Niño: Interdecadal robustness. Climate Dyn.,42, 291-310, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1628-1.10.1007/s00382-012-1628-1

fdb8ccb65089f95862ba4629cf18022b

http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2Fs00382-012-1628-1

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-012-1628-1The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect the El Ni09o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state of the following year, in addition to the well-known preconditioning by equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV), as suggested by a study based on observations over the recent satellite era (1981–2009). The present paper explores the interdecadal robustness of this result over the 1872–2008 period. To this end, we develop a robust IOD index, which well exploits sparse historical observations in the tropical Indian Ocean, and an efficient proxy of WWV interannual variations based on the temporal integral of Pacific zonal wind stress (of a historical atmospheric reanalysis). A linear regression hindcast model based on these two indices in boreal fall explains 5002% of ENSO peak variance 1402months later, with significant contributions from both the IOD and WWV over most of the historical period and a similar skill for El Ni09o and La Ni09a events. Our results further reveal that, when combined with WWV, the IOD index provides a larger ENSO hindcast skill improvement than the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode, the Indian Monsoon or ENSO itself. Based on these results, we propose a revised scheme of Indo-Pacific interactions. In this scheme, the IOD–ENSO interactions favour a biennial timescale and interact with the slower recharge-discharge cycle intrinsic to the Pacific Ocean.

Jin F.-F., 1997a: An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 811- 829.10.1175/1520-0469(1997)0542.0.CO;2

09c47e5b99df8464751dff9cd4c7d43a

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1997JAtS...54..811J

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997JAtS...54..811JA new conceptual model for ENSO has been constructed based upon the positive feedback of tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction proposed by Bjerknes as the growth mechanism and the recharge–discharge of the equatorial heat content as the phase-transition mechanism suggested by Cane and Zebiak and by Wyrtki. This model combines SST dynamics and ocean adjustment dynamics into a coupled basinwide recharge oscillator that relies on the nonequilibrium between the zonal mean equatorial thermocline depth and wind stress. Over a wide range of the relative coupling coefficient, this recharge oscillator can be either self-excited or stochastically sustained. Its period is robust in the range of 3–5 years. This recharge oscillator model clearly depicts the slow physics of ENSO and also embodies the delayed oscillator (Schopf and Suarez; Battisti and Hirst) without requiring an explicit wave delay. It can also be viewed as a mixed SST–ocean dynamics oscillator due to the fact that it arises from the merging of two uncoupled modes, a decaying SST mode and a basinwide ocean adjustment mode, through the tropical ocean–atmosphere coupling. The basic characteristics of this recharge oscillator, including the relationship between the equatorial western Pacific thermocline depth and the eastern Pacific SST anomalies, are in agreement with those of ENSO variability in the observations and simulations with the Zebiak–Cane model.

Jin F.-F., 1997b: An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part II: A stripped-down coupled model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 830- 847.10.1175/1520-0469(1997)0542.0.CO;2

6278c3976d36c385455807a9deb73330

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1997jats...54..830j

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997jats...54..830jThe conceptual recharge oscillator model intuitively established in Part I is derived from a dynamical framework of a Cane-Zebiak type model for tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction. A two-strip approximation to the equatorial ocean dynamics and one-strip approximation to the SST dynamics are employed to obtain a stripped-down coupled model that captures the main physics of the Cane-Zebiak type model. It is shown that the conceptual recharge oscillator model can be obtained from the stripped-down coupled model with a two-box approximation in the zonal direction or a low-frequency approximation to filter out high-frequency modes. Linear solutions of the stripped-down model are analytically solved and the dependence of coupled modes on various model parameters is delineated. In different parameter regimes, the stripped-down coupled model describes a coupled-wave mode and a mixed SST-ocean-dynamics mode that results from the merger of a nonoscillatory ocean adjustment mode with an SST mode. These two coupled oscillatory modes undergo a further merger. In the neighborhood of this merger, the leading mode of the system becomes a generalized mixed mode. It is suggested that the slow ENSO regime can be best characterized by this generalized mixed mode whose essential physics are described by the conceptual recharge oscillator model proposed in Part I.

Kand aga, P., A. L. Gordon, J. Sprintall, R. D. Susanto, 2009: Intraseasonal variability in the Makassar Strait thermocline. J. Mar. Res., 67, 757- 777.10.1357/002224009792006115

3f7ef00644a63370af2acbeb8c308e0b

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ingentaconnect.com%2Fcontent%2Fjmr%2Fjmr%2F2009%2F00000067%2F00000006%2Fart00003

http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/jmr/jmr/2009/00000067/00000006/art00003Intraseasonal variability [ISV] in the Makassar Strait thermocline is examined through the analysis of along-channel flow, regional sea level anomaly and wind fields from January 2004 through November 2006. The dominant variability of 45–90 day in the Makassar Strait along-channel flow is horizontally and vertically coherent and exhibits vertical energy propagation. The majority of the Makassar ISV is uncoupled to the energy exerted by the local atmospheric ISV: instead the Makassar ISV is due to the combination of a remotely forced baroclinic wave radiating from Lombok Strait and deep reaching ISV originating in the Sulawesi Sea. Thermocline depth changes associated with ENSO influence the ISV characteristics in the Makassar Strait lower thermocline, with intensified ISV during El Ni09o when the thermocline shallows and weakened ISV during La Ni09a.

Klein S. A., B. J. Soden, and N.- C. Lau, 1999: Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J.Climate, 12, 917- 932.10.1175/1520-0442(1999)0122.0.CO;2

83ab4967234d8e4d075060389c8e7b8e

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F1999jcli...12..917k

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999jcli...12..917kIn an El Ni09o event, positive SST anomalies usually appear in remote ocean basins such as the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the tropical North Atlantic approximately 3 to 6 months after SST anomalies peak in the tropical Pacific. Ship data from 1952 to 1992 and satellite data from the 1980s both demonstrate that changes in atmospheric circulation accompanying El Ni09o induce changes in cloud cover and evaporation which, in turn, increase the net heat flux entering these remote oceans. It is postulated that this increased heat flux is responsible for the surface warming of these oceans. Specifically, over the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea, enhanced subsidence during El Ni09o reduces cloud cover and increases the solar radiation absorbed by the ocean, thereby leading to enhanced SSTs. In the tropical North Atlantic, a weakening of the trade winds during El Ni09o reduces surface evaporation and increases SSTs. These relationships fit the concept of an “atmospheric bridge” that connects SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific to those in remote tropical oceans.

Kug J.-S., I.-S. Kang, 2006: Interactive feedback between ENSO and the Indian Ocean. J.Climate, 19, 1784- 1801.d9bfd7a7-8e95-4330-850e-bef98d809610

7df42a06f2d5a4d80619fedd8b033c7c

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mendeley.com%2Fresearch%2Finteractive-feedback-between-indian-ocean-enso%2F

refpaperuri:(29d454f12b688a451a6f70791244be15)

http://www.mendeley.com/research/interactive-feedback-between-indian-ocean-enso/

Kug J.-S., T. Li, S.-I. An, I.-S. Kang, J.-J. Luo, S. Masson, and T. Yamagata, 2006: Role of the ENSO-Indian Ocean coupling on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33,L09710, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024916.10.1029/2005GL024916

32fac0464a64e68af8a6a3bd635cd1a7

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2005GL024916%2Ffull

http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%2877477221b24d999ab807dfce0bc9943b%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2005GL024916%2Ffull&ie=utf-8&sc_us=11024636832908850019The effect of the Indian Ocean on El Nino/La Nina life cycles has been studied using 200-yrs simulation data of a coupled GCM. The results show that the interactive feedback between the ENSO and the Indian Ocean holds the key to the rapid transition to an opposite phase. This remote impact of the Indian Ocean SST anomaly is linked to the change of zonal wind stress in the western Pacific, which leads to a rapid demise of El Nino/La Nina. Without the involvement of the Indian Ocean, the phase transition is much slower. This role of the ENSO-Indian Ocean coupling on ENSO transition is consistent with that derived from the observational analysis.

Liang X. S., 2014: Unraveling the cause-effect relation between time series. Physical Review E, 90, 052150.10.1103/PhysRevE.90.052150

25493782

276c5348e5b7a66897379fb097a097f3

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpubmed%2F25493782

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25493782Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them ? Based on a recently rigorized physical notion, namely, information flow, we solve an inverse problem and give this important and challenging question, which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, a positive answer. Here causality is measured by the time rate of information flowing from one series to the other. The resulting formula is tight in form, involving only commonly used statistics, namely, sample covariances; an immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but correlation does not imply causation. It has been validated with touchstone linear and nonlinear series, purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the traditional approaches. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of real-world problems; an example presented here is the cause-and-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which have been linked to hazards in far-flung regions of the globe. In general, the two modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric: El Nino tends to stabilize IOD, while IOD functions to make El Nino more uncertain. To El Nino, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean.

Luo J.-J., R. C. Zhang, S. K. Behera, Y. Masumoto, F.-F. Jin, R. Lukas, and T. Yamagata, 2010: Interaction between El Niño and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole. J.Climate, 23, 726- 742.10.1175/2009JCLI3104.1

26dad4ffbfcfcaf40cb5514664d9e531

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cabdirect.org%2Fabstracts%2F20103092247.html

http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20103092247.htmlClimate variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific sector has undergone dramatic changes under global ocean warming. Extreme Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events occurred repeatedly in recent decades with an unprecedented series of three consecutive episodes during 200609“08, causing vast climate and socioeconomic effects worldwide and weakening the historic El Ni01±o09“Indian monsoon relationship. Major attention has been paid to the El Ni01±o influence on the Indian Ocean, but how the IOD influences El Ni01±o and its predictability remained an important issue to be understood. On the basis of various forecast experiments activating and suppressing air09“sea coupling in the individual tropical ocean basins using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean09“atmosphere model with demonstrated predictive capability, the present study shows that the extreme IOD plays a key role in driving the 1994 pseudo09“El Ni01±o, in contrast with traditional El Ni01±o theory. The pseudo09“El Ni01±o is more frequently observed in recent decades, coincident with a weakened atmospheric Walker circulation in response to anthropogenic forcing. The study0964s results suggest that extreme IOD may significantly enhance El Ni01±o and its onset forecast, which has being a long-standing challenge, and El Ni01±o in turn enhances IOD and its long-range predictability. The intrinsic El Ni01±o09“IOD interaction found here provides hope for enhanced prediction skill of both of these climate modes, and it sheds new light on the tropical climate variations and their changes under the influence of global warming.

McPhaden M. J., 2008: Evolution of the 2006-2007 El Niño: The role of intraseasonal to interannual time scale dynamics. Advances in Geosciences, 14, 219- 230.10.5194/adgeo-14-219-2008

9db316c6a9888be2c77fbdc2e1bc2f77

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oalib.com%2Fpaper%2F1369778

http://www.oalib.com/paper/1369778The relationship between monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the commonly used El Ni o regions and precipitation for 44 stations in Perú is documented for 1950–2002. Linear lag correlation analysis is employed to establish the potential for statistical precipitation forecasts from SSTs. Useful monthly mean precipitation anomaly forecasts are possible for several locations and calendar months if SST anomalies in El Ni o 1+2, Ni o 3.4, and Ni o 4 regions are available. Prediction of SST anomalies in El Ni o regions is routinely available from Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, with reasonable skill in the El Ni o 3.4 region, but the prediction in El Ni o 1+2 region is less reliable. The feasibility of using predicted SST anomalies in the El Ni o 3.4 region to predict SST anomalies in El Ni o 1+2 region is discussed.

Mogensen K., M. Alonso Balmaseda, and A. Weaver, 2012: The NEMOVAR ocean data assimilation system as implemented in the ECMWF ocean analysis for System 4. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 668,59 pp.e48b9b1f77509bc9ed54499d6dc76661

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mendeley.com%2Fresearch%2Fnemovar-ocean-data-assimilation-system-implemented-ecmwf-ocean-analysis-system-4%2F

http://www.mendeley.com/research/nemovar-ocean-data-assimilation-system-implemented-ecmwf-ocean-analysis-system-4/

Ohba M., 2013: Important factors for long-term change in ENSO transitivity. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 1495- 1509.10.1002/joc.3529

33a81e0460aa21f0e74f5abb025747ae

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fjoc.3529%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3529/fullNot Available

Ohba M., H. Ueda, 2005: Basin-wide warming in the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with El Niño. SOLA,1, 89-92, doi: 10.2151/sola.2005-024.10.2151/sola.2005-024

91ac1ebf54c66c0814bdb3a978bc1353

http%3A%2F%2Fci.nii.ac.jp%2Fnaid%2F130004940829

http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/130004940829Abstract A physical process of basin-wide warming in the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) is examined in view of the seasonally different coupling processes between the monsoon circulation and the modulated Walker circulation associated with major El Ni09o. In the

Ohba M., H. Ueda, 2007: An impact of SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean in acceleration of the El Niño to La Niña transition. J. Meteor. Soc.Japan, 85, 335- 348.10.2151/jmsj.85.335

cf8b144b0d2ce2bb255b75c883c06657

http%3A%2F%2Fci.nii.ac.jp%2Fnaid%2F130004788592%2F

http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/130004788592/One possible impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) on the ongoing El Ni09o is investigated using an air-sea coupled general circulation model (CGCM). A suite of CGCM experiments by imposing the IO basin-wide warming (BW) and IO dipole/zonal mode (IODZM) are conducted to assess the feedback effects of the El Ni09o-related SST anomalies on the Pacific. While the IODZM during boreal fall does not have a significant impact on the Pacific sector, the BW during boreal winter enhances the surface easterlies over the equatorial Western Pacific (WP) during the mature-decay phase of El Ni09o. The strengthened easterlies act to enhance the SST cooling over the WP, thereby the zonal gradient of SST between the IO and WP is greater than the climatology. These enhanced WP easterlies induce an advanced transition to the La Ni09a phase, which is caused by the upwelling ocean Kelvin waves. These results imply that the BW in the IO, to some extent, can be hastening the El Ni09o to La Ni09a transition.

Ohba M., H. Ueda, 2009: Role of nonlinear atmospheric response to SST on the asymmetric transition process of ENSO. J.Climate, 22, 177- 192.10.1175/2008JCLI2334.1

0445825725a7e703b1368f5f014e3a6d

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cabdirect.org%2Fabstracts%2F20093063980.html

http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20093063980.htmlA suite of idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are performed by imposing two different ENSO-related SST anomalies, which have equal amplitudes but opposite signs. The nonlinear climate response in the AGCM is found at the mature-to-decaying phase of ENSO that closely resembles the observations, including a zonal and meridional shift in the equatorial positions of the atmospheric wind. By using a simple ocean model, it is determined that the asymmetric responses of the equatorial zonal wind result in different recovery times of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific. Thus, the differences in transition processes between the warm and cold ENSO event are fundamentally due to the nonlinear atmospheric response to SST, which originates from the distribution of climatological SST and its seasonal changes. By including the asymmetric wind responses the intermediate airea coupled model herein demonstrates that the essential elements of the redevelopment of La Nina arise from the nonlinear atmospheric response to SST anomalies.

Ohba M., M. Watanabe, 2012: Role of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling in predicting asymmetric ENSO transition and duration. J.Climate, 25, 3321- 3335.10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00409.1

64bbe636f30af39e9efe613cb2f34b56

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2012EGUGA..14.1201O

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.1201OWarm and cold phases of El Ni09o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Ni09o tends to shift rapidly to La Ni09a after the mature phase, while La Ni09a tends to persist for up to two years. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about eight months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as spring barriers) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Ni09a. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Ni09o enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence counteract the El Ni09o decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Ni09a. The result of our CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.

Ohba M., D. Nohara, and H. Ueda, 2010: Simulation of asymmetric ENSO transition in WCRP CMIP3 multimodel experiments. J. Climate,23, 6051-6067, doi: 10.1175/2010 JCLI3608.1.10.1175/2010JCLI3608.1

01abf28753f8abad589c79b900b233d8

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cabdirect.org%2Fabstracts%2F20113021678.html

http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20113021678.htmlIn the CMIP3 models, four climate models simulate well the rapid transition from El Ni09o to La Ni09a. The intensity of a rapid transition of El Ni09o is mainly related to the intensity of the simulated climatological precipitation over the western–central Pacific (WCP). The models that have strong WCP precipitation can simulate the rapid termination of the equatorial zonal wind in the WCP, which tends to result in the termination of El Ni09o phase. This relationship is not applicable for the La Ni09a transition phase. The simulation of La Ni09a persistency is related to the reflection of off-equatorial Rossby waves at the western boundary of the Pacific and the seasonal evolution of the climatological precipitation in the WCP. Differences in the transition processes between El Ni09o and La Ni09a events are fundamentally due to the nonlinear atmospheric (convective) response to SST, which originates from the distribution of climatological SST and its seasonal changes. The results of the present study indicate that a realistic simulation of the climatological state and its seasonality in the WCP are important to be able to simulate the observed transition process of the ENSO.

Okumura Y. M., M. Ohba, C. Deser, and H. Ueda, 2011: A proposed mechanism for the asymmetric duration of El Niño and La Niña. J.Climate, 24, 3822- 3829.10.1175/2011JCLI3999.1

73a61fa1ed08037a4cc61dc27673ce85

http%3A%2F%2Fagris.fao.org%2Fagris-search%2Fsearch.do%3FrecordID%3DAV2012090472

http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=AV2012090472Not Available

Potemra J. T., 2005: Indonesian Throughflow transport variability estimated from satellite altimetry. Oceanography, 18, 98- 107.10.5670/oceanog.2005.10

c0226cbb54341ce6764af8243768542a

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F276189197_Indonesian_Throughflow_Transport_Variability_Estimated_from_Satellite_Altimetry

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/276189197_Indonesian_Throughflow_Transport_Variability_Estimated_from_Satellite_Altimetry

Rayner N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland , L. V. Alexand er, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108 ,4407, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670.10.1029/2002JD002670

0831f099871c89699f00bb6e2586346b

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2002JD002670%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002JD002670/full[1] We present the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1, and the nighttime marine air temperature (NMAT) data set, HadMAT1. HadISST1 replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1 latitude-longitude grid from 1871. The companion HadMAT1 runs monthly from 1856 on a 5 latitude-longitude grid and incorporates new corrections for the effect on NMAT of increasing deck (and hence measurement) heights. HadISST1 and HadMAT1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two-stage reduced-space optimal interpolation procedure, followed by superposition of quality-improved gridded observations onto the reconstructions to restore local detail. The

Saji N. H., T. Yamagata, 2003: Structure of SST and surface wind variability during Indian Ocean dipole mode events: COADS observations. J.Climate, 16, 2735- 2751.10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2735:SOSASW>2.0.CO;2

98b491d65e37b09544743261573bc3e8

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2003JCli...16.2735S

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003JCli...16.2735SABSTRACT A study of the detailed spatiotemporal characteristics of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode in SST and surface winds using available observations from 1958 till 1997 is reported. The analysis is used to address several of the controversial issues regarding the IOD.One key finding of this study is that interdecadal fluctuations contribute strongly to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST variability; in SST anomalies (SSTA) interdecadal variance is as strong as interannual variance. Over both the western and eastern TIO, an accelerated warming of SST after the mid-1970s is apparent. The lack of anticorrelation between western and eastern TIO SSTA occurs only in this latter half of the analysis period.In order to examine the hypothesis that the IOD is a part of ENSO evolution in the TIO, the temporal characteristics of IOD indices have been compared with Niño-3. On the basis of several quantitative comparisons that include wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis, several important differences between the two phenomena are reported. These differences are highlighted to argue that the IOD is not a part of ENSO evolution in the TIO. On the other hand, a striking similarity is found in the temporal structure of atmospheric and oceanic variability within the TIO that is suggestive of IOD arising from inherent coupled air-sea interactions in the TIO.ENSO events that do not co-occur with IOD have been isolated and their impacts on TIO SSTA and winds described. Similarly, the characteristics of IOD events that occur independently of ENSO are described. Based on the characteristics of these two groups a hypothesis is suggested through which both phenomena may interact. It is noted that ENSO events co-occurring with IOD events are much stronger compared to non-co-occurring events. On the other hand, IOD events that are independent of ENSO as well as those that co-occur with it appear to have the same strength.

Saji N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachand ran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401, 360- 363.10.1038/43854

16862108

31d5bd363a994efe19550bc4fc1839b4

http%3A%2F%2Feuropepmc.org%2Fabstract%2Fmed%2F16862108

http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM16862108For the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans, internal modes of variability that lead to climatic oscillations have been recognized, but in the Indian Ocean region a similar ocean-atmosphere interaction causing interannual climate variability has not yet been found. Here we report an analysis of observational data over the past 40 years, showing a dipole mode in the Indian Ocean: a pattern of internal variability with anomalously low sea surface temperatures off Sumatra and high sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, with accompanying wind and precipitation anomalies. The spatio-temporal links between sea surface temperatures and winds reveal a strong coupling through the precipitation field and ocean dynamics. This air-sea interaction process is unique and inherent in the Indian Ocean, and is shown to be independent of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The discovery of this dipole mode that accounts for about 12% of the sea surface temperature variability in the Indian Ocean--and, in its active years, also causes severe rainfall in eastern Africa and droughts in Indonesia--brightens the prospects for a long-term forecast of rainfall anomalies in the affected countries.

Smith T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J.Climate, 21, 2283- 2296.10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00241.1

c414e21c-59c5-4c50-9c7e-e9f6fee91eea

a871f494927b97ada299e482d296dab1

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F273920081_NOAA%27s_Merged_LandOcean_Surface_Temperature_Analysis

refpaperuri:(dbc44c65ee1c9ace06b0727517ae2bee)

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/273920081_NOAA's_Merged_LandOcean_Surface_Temperature_AnalysisThis paper describes the new release of the Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature analysis (MLOST version 3.5), which is used in operational monitoring and climate assessment activities by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. The primary motivation for the latest version is the inclusion of a new land dataset that has several major improvements, including a more elaborate approach for addressing changes in station location, instrumentation, and siting conditions. The new version is broadly consistent with previous global analyses, exhibiting a trend of 0.076°C decade 611 since 1901, 0.162°C decade 611 since 1979, and widespread warming in both time periods. In general, the new release exhibits only modest differences with its predecessor, the most obvious being very slightly more warming at the global scale (0.004°C decade 611 since 1901) and slightly different trend patterns over the terrestrial surface.

Sprintall J., A. L. Gordon, R. Murtugudde, and R. D. Susanto, 2000: A semiannual Indian Ocean forced Kelvin wave observed in the Indonesian seas in May 1997. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 17 217- 17 230.10.1029/2000JC900065

7d19ce5e43d588664f7f3e32a8cdfbd8

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2000JC900065%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000JC900065/fullRecent observations within the Indonesian exit passages and internal seas highly resolve the arrival and passage of a semiannual Kelvin wave. In mid-May 1997, surface and subsurface currents were to the southeast at a mooring located south of Java in the South Java Current, while local wind forcing was northwestward. Subsequent northward fluctuations in the geostrophic current through Lombok Strait and in observed currents from two moorings located in Makassar Strait are commensurate with the speed and passage of a Kelvin wave through the region. The Kelvin wave was due to westerly wind forcing in the remote equatorial Indian Ocean during the semiannual April/May monsoon transition period. This was confirmed through a simple remote wind-forced analytical Kelvin wave model of velocity at the South Java Current mooring location and sea level in Lombok Strait and also in the numerical general circulation model of Murtugudde et al. [1998]. Warm temperature anomalies measured at the south Java mooring and within Makassar Strait are associated with the passage of the Kelvin wave. Salinity anomalies measured at the south Java mooring are consistent with an Indian Ocean source. The observed passage of the Kelvin wave during May 1997 unambiguously demonstrates for the first time that equatorial Indian Ocean remote wind forcing may on occasions influence the internal Indonesian seas

Suarez M. J., P. S. Schopf, 1988: A delayed action oscillator for ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 3283- 3287.3f8116688108017cc92986e8e7a4fe6d

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F248381891_A_delayed_oscillator_for_ENSO

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/248381891_A_delayed_oscillator_for_ENSOPublication » A delayed oscillator for ENSO.

Tillinger D., A. L. Gordon, 2009: Fifty years of the Indonesian Throughflow. J.Climate, 22, 6342- 6355.10.1175/2009JCLI2981.1

a6911992c7fe1ded96898a44fac5c462

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cabdirect.org%2Fabstracts%2F20103024888.html

http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20103024888.htmlSimple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis data are used to produce a 50-yr record of flow through the Makassar Strait, the primary conduit for the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Two time series are constructed for comparison to the flow through the Makassar Strait as observed during 1997-98 and 2004-06: SODA along-channel speed within the Makassar Strait and Pacific to Indian Ocean intero...

Wajsowicz R. C., E. K. Schneider, 2001: The Indonesian throughflow's effect on global climate determined from the COLA coupled climate system. J.Climate, 14, 3029- 3042.10.1175/1520-0442(2001)0142.0.CO;2

e4a79d7f62ac092fadc81ccc4c1cf76c

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2001jcli...14.3029w

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001jcli...14.3029wBlocking the Indonesian archipelago by a land bridge, and so preventing flow from the western equatorial Pacific Ocean into the eastern Indian Ocean, causes a global readjustment in the coupled ocean tmosphere's climate. Notable features found in 10-yr-averaged fields when compared with the control climate are an ENSO-like signal over the equatorial Pacific, with warmer SSTs in the eastern basin, westerly anomalies in wind stress, and increased precipitation along the equator. The band of increased precipitation is flanked by bands of decreased rainfall. Over the Indian Ocean, blocking of the throughflow results in signatures similar to those associated with the Indian Dipole Mode. In the eastern basin, there are cooler SSTs and heat content anomalies. The southeast trades are increased with an associated increase in latent heating. The precipitation belt is shifted northwestward to give decreased rainfall over southern Indonesia and increased rainfall to the north; there is a slight increase in rainfall over eastern Africa, and SSTs are warmer in the western half of the basin. The Atlantic, midlatitudes, and polar regions are affected via atmospheric teleconnections. Net surface heat flux differences in regions of significant SST difference in the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are about 2 times as large as found previously in ocean-only simulations, indicating a positive feedback. Experiments with the atmospheric GCM component forced by the Indian Ocean SST anomalies generated by blocking the throughflow reproduce the changes in surface heat flux and winds found in the coupled model simulations over the southern Indian Ocean. In the equatorial Pacific, positive feedback is provided by the Bjerknes mechanism. In the Indian Ocean, the positive feedback loop comprises a change in oceanic heat flux divergence, which changes SST, and in turn net surface heat flux and surface winds, which further change the oceanic circulation and heat flux diver...

Webster P. J., A. M. Moore, J. P. Loschnigg, and R. R. Leben, 1999: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98. Nature, 401, 356- 360.10.1038/43848

16862107

dcca6bbc88e576dc28c749ca84a1fc7a

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpubmed%2F16862107

http://med.wanfangdata.com.cn/Paper/Detail/PeriodicalPaper_PM16862107Climate variability in the Indian Ocean region seems to be, in some aspects, independent of forcing by external phenomena such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. But the extent to which, and how, internal coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics determine the state of the Indian Ocean system have not been resolved. Here we present a detailed analysis of the strong seasonal anomalies in sea surface temperatures, sea surface heights, precipitation and winds that occurred in the Indian Ocean region in 1997-98, and compare the results with the record of Indian Ocean climate variability over the past 40 years. We conclude that the 1997-98 anomalies--in spite of the coincidence with the strong El Nino/Southern Oscillation event--may primarily be an expression of internal dynamics, rather than a direct response to external influences. We propose a mechanism of ocean-atmosphere interaction governing the 1997-98 event that may represent a characteristic internal mode of the Indian Ocean climate system. In the Pacific Ocean, the identification of such a mode has led to successful predictions of El Nino; if the proposed Indian Ocean internal mode proves to be robust, there may be a similar potential for predictability of climate in the Indian Ocean region.

Weisberg R. H., C. Z. Wang, 1997: A western Pacific oscillator paradigm for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 779- 782.10.1029/97GL00689

fd55ec8f4d00114bbfad45e7160e4a86

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F97GL00689%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/97GL00689/fullA data-based hypothesis is presented on the mechanism of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a major determinant of interannual global climate variability. The hypothesis emphasizes the importance of off-equator sea surface temperature and sea level pressure variations west of the dateline for initiating equatorial easterly winds over the far western Pacific. These winds compete with westerly winds over the equatorial central Pacific enabling the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to oscillate. Consistent with this hypothesis, an analogical oscillator model is constructed that produces ENSO-like oscillations. The proposed mechanism differs from the delayed oscillator paradigm in that wave reflection at the western boundary is not a necessary condition for the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to oscillate.

Wijffels S. E., G. Meyers, 2004: An intersection of oceanic waveguides: Variability in the Indonesian Throughflow region. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 1232- 1253.10.1175/1520-0485(2004)0342.0.CO;2

8e945cfdd618b6a7b03599a2a9fab8fa

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2004JPO....34.1232W

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004JPO....34.1232WNot Available

Wu R. G., B. P. Kirtman, 2004: Understanding the impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM. J.Climate, 17, 4019- 4031.10.1175/1520-0442(2004)0172.0.CO;2

40e0729f767a0c948c1b8fd34dae4c2c

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2004JCli...17.4019W

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004JCli...17.4019WAbstract This study investigates the impacts of the Indian Ocean on El Ni09o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability through numerical simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, composite analyses with the coupled model output, and simple atmosphere model experiments with specified sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. It is found that, when the Indian Ocean is decoupled from the atmosphere, the ENSO variability in the coupled model is significantly reduced. Conditional SST distributions indicate that the warm (cold) ENSO state is stronger and occurs more frequently when the Indian Ocean SST in summer is relatively cold (warm), whereas it is weaker and occurs less frequently when the Indian Ocean is relatively warm (cold). The impacts of the Indian Ocean are suggested by a comparison of SST composites under warm, normal, and cold Indian Ocean SST conditions in the developing stage of ENSO. It is demonstrated that the Indian Ocean affects the ENSO variability through modulating ...

Wyrtki K., 1987: Indonesian through flow and the associated pressure gradient. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 12 941- 12 946.10.1029/JC092iC12p12941

60e0d48fca95de8694643c066c21c7fe

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2FJC092iC12p12941%2Fabstract

http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28d375702e0c462b93a0478db101a17cfa%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2FJC092iC12p12941%2Fabstract&ie=utf-8&sc_us=11346542004292738428The flow of water from the western Pacific to the eastern Indian Ocean through the Indonesian archipelago is governed by a strong pressure gradient. Dynamic height computations determine the average sea level difference as 16 cm and show that most of the pressure gradient is contained in the upper 200 m. Sea level data from Davao in the Philippines and from Darwin in Australia are used to determine the annual signal and the interannual variations of the pressure gradient for the years 1966 to 1985. The annual signal has a maximum during the southeast monsoon in July and August and a minimum in January and February. Interannual variations are not related to the Southern Oscillation because sea level is low at both stations during El Nino events, and thus there is little influence on the sea level difference. The mechanism of the through flow is discussed, but a determination of its numerical value will have to await direct measurements. A comparison of the sea level difference with results from a numerical model by Kindle shows satisfactory agreement. It is concluded that the variability of the through flow can be monitored by sea level measurements.

Xie S.-P., H. Annamalai, F. A. Schott, and J. P. McCreary Jr, 2002: Structure and mechanisms of South Indian Ocean climate variability. J.Climate, 15, 864- 878.10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0864:SAMOSI>2.0.CO;2

97708127d9485413b97b2a055b35a12b

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2002jcli...15..864x

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002jcli...15..864xCiteSeerX - Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles): A unique open-ocean upwelling exists in the tropical South Indian Ocean (SIO), a result of the negative wind curl between the southeasterly trades and equatorial westerlies, raising the thermocline in the west. Analysis of in-situ measurements and a model-assimilated dataset reveals a strong influence of subsurface thermocline variability on sea surface temperature (SST) in this upwelling zone. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to be the dominant forcing for the SIO thermocline variability, with SST variability off Sumatra also making a significant contribution. When either an El Nino or Sumatra cooling event takes place, anomalous easterlies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean, forcing a westward-propagating downwelling Rossby wave in the SIO. In phase with this dynamic Rossby wave, there is a pronounced co-propagation of SST. Moreover, a positive precipitation anomaly is found over, or just to the south of, the Rossby wave-induced positive SST anomaly, resu...

Xie S.-P., K. M. Hu, J. Hafner, H. Tokinaga, Y. Du, G. Huang, and T. Sampe, 2009: Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J.Climate, 22, 730- 747.10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1

5ca7332e21ffff9143909ee76fe9bab3

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cabdirect.org%2Fabstracts%2F20093117314.html

http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20093117314.htmlSignificant climate anomalies persist through the summer (June-August) after El Nino dissipates in spring over the equatorial Pacific. They include the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming, increased tropical tropospheric temperature, an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical northwest Pacific, and increased mei-yu-baiu rainfall over East Asia. The cause of these lingering El Nino effects during summer is investigated using observations and an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The results herein indicate that the TIO warming acts like a capacitor anchoring atmospheric anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Oceans. It causes tropospheric temperature to increase by a moist-adiabatic adjustment in deep convection, emanating a baroclinic Kelvin wave into the Pacific. In the northwest Pacific, this equatorial Kelvin wave induces northeasterly surface wind anomalies, and the resultant divergence in the subtropics triggers suppressed convection and the anomalous anticyclone. The GCM results support this Kelvin wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism. In response to a prescribed SST increase over the TIO, the model simulates the Kelvin wave with low pressure on the equator as well as suppressed convection and the anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical northwest Pacific. An additional experiment further indicates that the north Indian Ocean warming is most important for the Kelvin wave and northwest Pacific anticyclone, a result corroborated by observations. These results have important implications for the predictability of Indo-western Pacific summer climate: the spatial distribution and magnitude of the TIO warming, rather than simply whether there is an El Nino in the preceding winter, affect summer climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific and East Asia.

Xue Y., T. M. Smith, and R. W. Reynolds, 2003: Interdecadal changes of 30- yr SST normals during 1871-2000. J.Climate, 16, 1601- 1612.10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1601

c20a4f063700df8ee19ef55b90dc7641

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2003JCli...16.1601X

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003JCli...16.1601XSST predictions are usually issued in terms of anomalies and standardized anomalies relative to a 30-yr normal: climatological mean (CM) and standard deviation (SD). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggests updating the 30-yr normal every 10 yr. In complying with the WMO's suggestion, a new 30-yr normal for the 1971-2000 base period is constructed. To put the new 30-yr normal in historical perspective, all the 30-yr normals since 1871 are investigated, starting from the beginning of each decade (1871-1900, 1881-1910, . . . , 1971-2000). Using the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) on a 200° grid for 1854-2000 and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST dataset (HadISST) on a 100° grid for 1870-1999, eleven 30-yr normals are calculated, and the interdecadal changes of seasonal CM, seasonal SD, and seasonal persistence (P) are discussed. The interdecadal changes of seasonal CM are prominent (0.300°-0.600°) in the tropical Indian Ocean, the midlatitude North Pacific, the midlatitude North Atlantic, most of the South Atlantic, and the sub-Antarctic front. Four SST indices are used to represent the key regions of the interdecadal changes: the Indian Ocean (''INDIAN''; 1000°S-2500°N, 4500°-10000°E), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO; 3500°-4500°N, 16000°E-16000°W), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; 4000°-6000°N, 2000°-6000°W), and the South Atlantic (SATL; 2200°S-200°N, 3500°W-1000°E). Both INDIAN and SATL show a warming trend that is consistent between ERSST and HadISST. Both PDO and NAO show a multidecadal oscillation that is consistent between ERSST and HadISST except that HadISST is biased toward warm in summer and cold in winter relative to ERSST. The interdecadal changes in Nin01±o-3 (500°S-500°N, 9000°-15000°W) are small (0.200°) and are inconsistent between ERSST and HadISST. The seasonal SD is prominent in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the North Pacific, and North...

Yamagata T., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, Z. Y. Guan, K. Ashok, and H. N. Saji, 2003: Comments on "Dipoles, temperature gradients, and tropical climate anomalies". Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1418- 1422.10.1175/BAMS-84-10-1418

1945f2c54219c2d9ef838023296d20fa

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2003BAMS...84.1422M

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003BAMS...84.1422MNo Abstract Available.

Yang J. L., Q. Y. Liu, S.-P. Xie, Z. Y. Liu, and L. X. Wu, 2007: Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,L02708, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028571.10.1029/2006GL028571

353dab2ba8ff639e582352e283adfb3e

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2006GL028571%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL028571/full[1] Following an El Nino event, a basin-wide warming takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean, peaks in late boreal winter and early spring, and persists through boreal summer. Our observational analysis suggests that this Indian Ocean warming induces robust climatic anomalies in the summer Indo-West Pacific region, prolonging the El Nino's influence after tropical East Pacific sea surface temperature has returned to normal. In response to the Indian Ocean warming, precipitation increases over most of the basin, forcing a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere with a strengthened South Asian high. Near the ground, the southwest monsoon intensifies over the Arabian Sea and weakens over the South China and Philippine Seas. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation forms over the subtropical Northwest Pacific, collocated with negative precipitation anomalies. All these anomaly patterns are reproduced in a coupled model simulation initialized with a warming in the tropical Indian Ocean mixed layer, indicating that the Indian Ocean warming is not just a passive response to El Nino but important for summer climate variability in the Indo-West Pacific region. The implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Yasunari T., 1985: Zonally propagating modes of the global east-west circulation associated with the Southern Oscillation. J. Meteor. Soc.Japan, 63, 1013- 1029.10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<2695:IOGWOA>2.0.CO;2

e8e955d2852f7dfd127e58e6563595a4

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F248496020_zonally_propagating_modes_of_the_global_east-west_circulation_associated_with_the_southern_oscillat

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/248496020_zonally_propagating_modes_of_the_global_east-west_circulation_associated_with_the_southern_oscillatSeveral schemes for correcting temperature and velocity measurements from moored current meters are tested on two moorings, one of which experienced large vertical excursions as the Gulf Stream meandered over it. The addition of two extra temperature recorders 100 m above and below the current meter permits the calculation of a reference corrected series through time dependent interpolation. By assuming that the current meter profiles the vertical temperature structure as it is pulled up and down it is possible to calculate the mean vertical temperature gradient and its dependence on temperature. A quadratic dependence is suggested by hydrographic measurements and the direct in situ measurements on the moorings. It is found possible, through weighted polynomial regression, to calculate this dependence directly from measurements of temperature and pressure on a single instrument and, thereby, to remove more than 95 percent of the mooring motion induced temperature variance. The correction of temperature for mooring motion is found necessary for accurate estimation of heat flux from moorings in energetic areas. Correction of velocity is more difficult but it is not found to have much effect on flux calculations.

Yasunari T., 1987: Global structure of the El Niño/Southern oscillation. Part II. Time evolution. J. Meteor. Soc.Japan, 65, 81- 102.2f1a4910d66c7f114a5075818c50f25e

http%3A%2F%2Fci.nii.ac.jp%2Fnaid%2F40000634425

http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/40000634425

Yu J.-Y., C. R. Mechoso, J. C. McWilliams, and A. Arakawa, 2002: Impacts of the Indian Ocean on the ENSO cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett.,29, 46-1-6-4, doi: 10.1029/2001GL014098.10.1029/2001GL014098

aa43b7b57395f9da3be917632afd85f3

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2001GL014098%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001GL014098/fullThis study examines the impacts of the Indian Ocean on the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) cycle by performing experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM). In one of the experiments, the ocean model domain includes only the tropical Pacific Ocean (the Pacific Run). In the other experiment, the ocean model domain includes both the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans (the Indo-Pacific Run). The experiment results show that the CGCM simulation of ENSO including both the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans tends to be more realistic than that including the tropical Pacific Ocean only. In particular, the Indo-Pacific Run produces ENSO events with larger amplitude and greater variability on decadal time scales. The interactive Indian Ocean also affects the surface heat flux anomalies in the Indian Ocean during the ENSO cycle and surface wind stress anomalies in both the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. There are indications that both surface heat flux and wind stress are actively forcing a portion of the interannual variability in the Indian Ocean during the ENSO cycle.

Yu, J.-Y . , 2005: Enhancement of ENSO's persistence barrier by biennial variability in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32,L13707, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023406.10.1029/2005GL023406

c1d9de2fd752cf5b05f9430fc5c97534

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2005GL023406%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL023406/fullPossible causes of the spring persistence barrier in ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies are examined using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM). Our study indicates that the persistence barrier is significantly enhanced when both Pacific and Indian Ocean couplings are included in the CGCM, compared to the simulation that includes only the Pacific Ocean coupling. ENSO's variance, phase locking to the annual cycle, and biennial variability are also increased in the Indo-Pacific Run. Further analysis reveals that the overall amplitude of ENSO is not a primary factor in determining the strength of the persistence barrier, rather, it is the amplitude of the biennial component of ENSO affecting the barrier the most. The persistence barrier is consistently strong (weak) when biennial ENSO variability is large (small). No such a clear relationship is found between the strength of the barrier and the amplitude of the low-frequency (3-5 years) component of ENSO. This modeling study demonstrates that the biennial component of ENSO is one major mechanism responsible for the spring persistence barrier and that interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean-monsoon could enhance the biennial component of ENSO.

Yu W. D., B. Q. Xiang, L. Liu, and N. Liu, 2005: Understanding the origins of interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32,L24706, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024327.10.1029/2005GL024327

ef22564f9e7d8e712c606f023ec71971

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2005GL024327%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL024327/fullThe crystal structure of byakangelicin, one of furanocoumarin aldose reductase inhibitors, was determined by X-ray diffraction method. The crystal is triclinic, with a = 8.114(1), b = 10.194(1), c = 11.428(1)A, a = 111.50(1), beta= 95.57(1), gamma = 112.52(1) degrees , Dx = 1.41, Dm = 1.39 g/cm3, space group P1 and Z = 2. The intensity data were collected by omega-2theta scan method with CuK(a) radiations. The structure was solved by direct method and refined by full matrix least-squares procedure to the final R-value of 0.056. There are two molecules with different conformations in an asymmetric unit. The molecules are kept by two intermolecular O-HO type hydrogen bonds and van der Waal's forces in the crystal. The absolute configuration of the molecules was estimated to S-form by the 'Eta refinement' procedure.

Yuan, D. L., Coauthors, 2011: Forcing of the Indian Ocean dipole on the interannual variations of the tropical Pacific Ocean: Roles of the Indonesian throughflow. J.Climate, 24, 3593- 3608.10.1175/2011JCLI3649.1

18bdb901c5e6ba0744a692a76dd9af9b

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2011JCli...24.3593Y

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JCli...24.3593YControlled numerical experiments using ocean-only and ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models show that interannual sea level depression in the eastern Indian Ocean during the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events forces enhanced Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) to transport warm water from the upper-equatorial Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. The enhanced transport produces elevation of the thermocline and cold subsurface temperature anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to induce significant coupled evolution of the tropical Pacific oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Analyses suggest that the IOD-forced ITF transport anomalies are about the same amplitudes as those induced by the Pacific ENSO. Results of the coupled model experiments suggest that the anomalies induced by the IOD persist in the equatorial Pacific until the year following the IOD event, suggesting the importance of the oceanic channel in modulating the interannual climate variations of the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag beyond one year.

Yuan D. L., H. Zhou, and X. Zhao, 2013: Interannual climate variability over the tropical Pacific Ocean induced by the Indian Ocean dipole through the Indonesian Throughflow. J. Climate,26, 2845-2861, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00117.1.10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00117.1

22b98af0528d18616267ceabac463913

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2013jcli...26.2845y

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013jcli...26.2845yThe authors' previous dynamical study has suggested a link between the Indian and Pacific Ocean interannual climate variations through the transport variations of the Indonesian Throughflow. In this study, the consistency of this oceanic channel link with observations is investigated using correlation analyses of observed ocean temperature, sea surface height, and surface wind data. The analyses show significant lag correlations between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the eastern Pacific cold tongue in the following summer through fall seasons, suggesting potential predictability of ENSO events beyond the period of 1 yr. The dynamics of this teleconnection seem not through the atmospheric bridge, because the wind anomalies in the far western equatorial Pacific in fall have insignificant correlations with the cold tongue anomalies at time lags beyond one season. Correlation analyses between the sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those over the Indo-Pacific basin suggest eastward propagation of the upwelling anomalies from the Indian Ocean into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Indonesian Seas. Correlations in the subsurface temperature in the equatorial vertical section of the Pacific Ocean confirm the propagation. In spite of the limitation of the short time series of observations available, the study seems to suggest that the ocean channel connection between the two basins is important for the evolution and predictability of ENSO.

Zhou Q., W. S. Duan, M. Mu, and R. Feng, 2015: Influence of positive and negative Indian Ocean dipoles on ENSO via the Indonesian Throughflow: Results from sensitivity experiments. Adv. Atmos. Sci.,32, 783-793, doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4141-0.10.1007/s00376-014-4141-0

9aa943831a9f7597b31ec7f0cb6b7f2c

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC1705594%2F

http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dqkxjz-e201506005.aspxThe role of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events, negative sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling. These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nia-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Nio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.