doi:10.1007/s00376-017-6290-4

Barnston, A. G. and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115( 6), 1083- 1126.10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2

29be75b7c6a781307ec830b0a6f33bad

http%3A%2F%2Ficesjms.oxfordjournals.org%2Fexternal-ref%3Faccess_num%3D10.1175%2F1520-0493%281987%291152.0.CO%3B2%26amp%3Blink_type%3DDOI

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493%281987%29115%3C1083%3ACSAPOL%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Budikova D., 2009: Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review. Global and Planetary Change, 68( 3), 149- 163.10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.04.001

cb30681807e5e4f278ac3b562915d6f4

http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0921818109000654

http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818109000654Formed by the freezing of sea water, sea ice defines the character of the marine Arctic. The principal purpose of this review is to synthesize the published efforts that document the potential impact of Arctic sea ice on remote climates. The emphasis is on atmospheric processes and the resulting modifications in surface conditions such as air temperature, precipitation patterns, and storm track behavior at interannual timescales across the middle and low latitudes of the Northern hemisphere during cool months. Addressed also are the theoretical, methodological, and logistical challenges facing the current observational and modeling studies that aim to improve our awareness of the role that Arctic sea ice plays in the definition of global climate. Moving towards an improved understanding of the role that polar sea ice plays in shaping the global climate is a subject of timely importance as the Arctic environment is currently undergoing rapid change with little slowing down forecasted for the future.

Cohen J., K. Saito, and D. Entekhabi, 2001: The role of the Siberian high in Northern Hemisphere climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett,, 28( 2), 299- 302.10.1029/2000GL011927

c3989cd856196a4f3df7ea263e532d51

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2000GL011927%2Ffull

http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2000GL011927The dominant mode of sea level pressure (SLP) variability during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is characterized by a dipole with one anomaly center covering the Arctic with the opposite sign anomaly stretched across the mid-latitudes. Associated with the SLP anomaly, is a surface temperature anomaly induced by the anomalous circulation. We will show that this anomaly pattern originates in the early fall, on a much more regional scale, in Siberia. As the season progresses this anomaly pattern propagates and amplifies to dominate much of the extratropical NH, making the Siberian high a dominant force in NH climate variability in winter. Also since the SLP and surface temperature anomalies originate in a region of maximum fall snow cover variability, we argue that snow cover partially forces the phase of winter variability and can potentially be used for the skillful prediction of winter climate.

Cohen J. L., M. A. Barlow, V. A. Alexeev, J. E. Cherry, et al., 2012: Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environmental Research Letters, 7( 1), 14 007- 14 014.10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2012ERL.....7a4007C

http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/7/i=1/a=014007?key=crossref.b774aafc53389f43a9e3492e8a36e8b1The most up to date consensus from global climate models predicts warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes to middle latitudes during boreal winter. However, recent trends in observed NH winter surface temperatures diverge from these projections. For the last two decades, large-scale cooling trends have existed instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. We argue that this unforeseen trend is probably not due to internal variability alone. Instead, evidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover, which dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling. Understanding this counterintuitive response to radiative warming of the climate system has the potential for improving climate predictions at seasonal and longer timescales.

Francis J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett,, 36( 7), L07503.10.1029/2009GL037274

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2009GL037274%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL037274/fullThe dramatic decline in Arctic summer sea-ice cover is a compelling indicator of change in the global climate system and has been attributed to a combination of natural and anthropogenic effects. Through its role in regulating the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, ice loss is anticipated to influence atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. By combining satellite measurements of sea-ice extent and conventional atmospheric observations, we find that varying summer ice conditions are associated with large-scale atmospheric features during the following autumn and winter well beyond the Arctic's boundary. Mechanisms by which the atmosphere 渞emembers� a reduction in summer ice cover include warming and destabilization of the lower troposphere, increased cloudiness, and slackening of the poleward thickness gradient that weakens the polar jet stream. This ice-atmosphere relationship suggests a potential long-range outlook for weather patterns in the northern hemisphere.

Francis, J. A. and S. J. Vavrus, 2012: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett,, 39( 6), L06801.10.1029/2012GL051000

c6c56c6a021edd43d82f7e1fc8bad5d9

http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2012GL051000%2Ffull

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.419.8599warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere 閳� is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves. Citation: Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme

Gao Y., et al., 2015: Arctic Sea Ice and Eurasian Climate: A Review. Adv. Atmos. Sci,, 32, 92- 114.10.1007/s00376-014-0009-6

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http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2Fs00376-014-0009-6

http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00376-014-0009-6鍖楁瀬鍦ㄦ皵鍊欑郴缁熻捣涓�涓熀鏈綔鐢紝鍖呮嫭娓╂殩鐨勫寳鏋佸拰鍖楁瀬娴峰啺绋嬪害鍜屽帤搴︾殑琛拌惤骞朵笖鍦ㄦ渶杩戠殑鍗佸勾鏄剧ず鍑洪噸瑕佹皵鍊欏彉鍖栥�備笌娓╂殩鐨勫寳鏋佸拰鍖楁瀬娴峰啺鐨勫噺灏忕浉瀵圭収锛屾娲诧紝涓滀簹鍜屽寳缇庢床缁忓巻浜嗗弽甯稿湴鍐风殑鏉′欢锛屼笌鍦ㄦ渶杩戠殑骞存湡闂寸殑璁板綍闄嶉洩銆傚湪杩欑瘒璁烘枃锛屾垜浠湪娆т簹鐨勬皵鍊欎笂鑰冨療娴峰啺褰卞搷鐨勫綋鍓嶇殑鐞嗚В銆侾aleo锛岃瀵熷苟涓斿缓妯＄爺绌惰鐩栦綇鎬荤粨鍑犱釜涓昏涓婚锛屽寘鎷細鍖楁瀬娴峰啺鍜屽畠鐨勬帶鍒剁殑鍙彉鎬э紱鍙兘鐨勫師鍥犲拰鍖楁瀬娴峰啺鐨勬槑鏄剧殑褰卞搷鍦ㄥ崼鏄熸椂浠ｏ紝浠ュ強杩囧幓鍜屾姇灏勬湭鏉ュ奖鍝嶅拰瓒嬪娍鏈熼棿琛伴��锛涘湪鍖楁瀬娴峰啺鍜屽寳鏋佹憜鍔� / 鍖楁柟澶цタ娲嬫憜鍔ㄤ箣闂寸殑杩炴帴鍜屽弽棣堟満鍒讹紝鏈�杩戠殑娆т簹鐨勫喎鍗达紝澶ф皵鐨勫惊鐜紝鍦ㄤ笢浜氱殑澶忓ぉ闄嶆按锛屽湪娆т簹澶ч檰涓婄殑鏄ュぉ闄嶉洩锛屼笢鏂逛簹娲插啲瀛ｅ椋庯紝鍜� midlatitude 鏋佺鎹辫繃鐨勫啲瀛ｏ紱骞朵笖閬ヨ繙鐨勬皵鍊欏弽搴�(渚嬪锛屽ぇ姘旂殑寰幆锛岀┖姘旀俯搴�) 鍒板湪鍖楁瀬娴峰啺鐨勫彉鍖栥�傛垜浠负鏈潵鐮旂┒涓庝竴绡囩畝鐭拰寤鸿寰楀嚭缁撹銆�

Honda M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett,, 36( 8), L08707.10.1029/2008GL037079

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http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cabdirect.org%2Fabstracts%2F20103055291.html

http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20103055291.htmlInfluence of low Arctic sea-ice minima in early autumn on the wintertime climate over Eurasia is investigated. Observational evidence shows that significant cold anomalies over the Far East in early winter and zonally elongated cold anomalies from Europe to Far East in late winter are associated with the decrease of the Arctic sea-ice cover in the preceding summer-to-autumn seasons. Results fro...

Jung T., M. A. Kasper, T. Semmler, and S. Serrar, 2014: Arctic influence on medium-range and extended-range prediction in mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett 41, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059961.

Jung T., M. Miller, and T. Palmer, 2010a: Diagnosing the origin of extended-range forecast errors. Mon. Wea. Rev,, 138( 6), 2434- 2446.10.1175/2010MWR3255.1

ade1de2fc33f65c18962c727fec6dbaa

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2010MWRv..138.2434J

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3255.1Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere during boreal winter. Generation of forecast errors during the course of the integration is artificially reduced by relaxing the ECMWF model toward the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in certain regions. Prescribing rather than persisting sea surface temperature and sea ice fields leads to a modest forecast error reduction in the extended range, especially over the North Pacific and North America; no beneficial influence is found in the medium range. Relaxation of the tropical troposphere leads to reduced extended-range forecast errors especially over the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. It is shown that a better representation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is of secondary importance for explaining the results of the tropical relaxation experiments. The influence from the tropical stratosphere is negligible. Relaxation of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere leads to forecast error reduction primarily in high latitudes and over Europe. However, given the strong influence from the troposphere onto the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere it is argued that stratospherically forced experiments are very difficult to interpret in terms of their implications for extended-range predictability of the tropospheric flow. The results are discussed in the context of future forecasting system development.

Jung T., T. Palmer, M. Rodwell, and S. Serrar, 2010b: Understanding the Anomalously Cold European Winter of 2005/06 Using Relaxation Experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev,, 138( 8), 3157- 3174.10.1175/2010MWR3258.1

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http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2010MWRv..138.3157J

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3258.1Abstract Experiments with the atmospheric component of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) have been carried out to study the origin of the atmospheric circulation anomalies that led to the unusually cold European winter of 2005/06. Experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice fields fail to reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation anomalies suggesting that the role of SST and sea ice was either not very important or the atmospheric response to SST and sea ice was not very well captured by the ECMWF model. Additional experiments are carried out in which certain regions of the atmosphere are relaxed toward analysis data thereby artificially suppressing the development of forecast error. The relaxation experiments suggest that both tropospheric circulation anomalies in the Euro閳ユ弬tlantic region and the anomalously weak stratospheric polar vortex can be explained by tropical circulation anomalies. Separate relaxation experiments for the tropical stratosphere and tropic...

Jung T., F. Vitart, L. Ferranti, and J.-J. Morcrette, 2011: Origin and predictability of the extreme negative NAO winter of 2009/10,Geophys. Res. Lett.,38(7),L07701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046786.

10.1029/2011GL046786

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1029%2F2011GL046786%2Ffull

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL046786/fullThe winter of 2009/2010 was one of the most negative winters of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the last 150 years. While most operational extended-range forecasting systems had difficulties in predicting the onset of the negative NAO phase, once established, extended-range forecasts were relatively skilful in predicting its persistence. Here, the origin and predictability of the unusual winter of 2009/10 are explored through numerical experimentation with the ECMWF Monthly forecasting system. More specifically, the role of anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the stratospheric polar vortex, solar insolation and near surface temperature (proxy for snow cover) are examined. None of these anomalies is capable of producing the observed NAO anomaly, especially in terms of its magnitude. The results of this study support the hypothesis that internal atmospheric dynamical processes were responsible for the onset and persistence of the negative NAO phase during the 2009/10 winter.

Overland, J. E. and M. Wang, 2016: Recent extreme Arctic temperatures are due to a split polar vortex. J, Climate, 29( 15), 5609- 5616.10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0320.1

e28b47312b1acc39f2ab4580c429da79

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2016JCli...29.5609O

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JCli...29.5609Oreact-text: 488 1] Because animals and humans respond to seasonally and regionally varying climates, it is instructive to assess how much confidence we can have in regional projections of sea ice from the 20 models provided through the International Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) process (IPCC 2007). Based on the selection of a subset models that closely simulate observed regional ice... /react-text react-text: 489 /react-text [Show full abstract]

Parkinson, C. L. and J. C. Comiso, 2013: On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm. Geophys. Res. Lett,, 40( 7), 1356- 1361.10.1002/grl.50349

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http%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fgrl.50349%2Ffull

http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/grl.50349A new record low Arctic sea ice extent for the satellite era, 3.4 10km, was reached on 13 September 2012; and a new record low sea ice area, 3.0 10km, was reached on the same date. Preconditioning through decades of overall ice reductions made the ice pack more vulnerable to a strong storm that entered the central Arctic in early August 2012. The storm caused the separation of an expanse of 0.4 10kmof ice that melted in total, while its removal left the main pack more exposed to wind and waves, facilitating the main pack's further decay. Future summer storms could lead to a further acceleration of the decline in the Arctic sea ice cover and should be carefully monitored.

Semmler T., M. A. Kasper, T. Jung, and S. Serrar, 2016: Remote impact of the Antarctic atmosphere on the Southern mid-latitudes. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 71- 77.10.1127/metz/2015/0685http://www.schweizerbart.de/papers/metz/detail/25/85163/Remote_impact_of_the_Antarctic_atmosphere_on_the_s?af=crossref

Tang Q., X. Zhang, X. Yang, and J. A. Francis, 2013: Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss. Environmental Research Letters, 8( 1), 014036.10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036

4a2689c416c3793196f6b65170ec673d

http%3A%2F%2Fadsabs.harvard.edu%2Fabs%2F2013ERL.....8a4036T

http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/8/i=1/a=014036?key=crossref.3b07e12952c5b61acb8cedc9b207e051

Vihma T., 2014: Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review. Surveys in Geophysics, 1- 40.10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0

77da958a10209d7918a429ac5f8df01c

http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2F10.1007%2Fs10712-014-9284-0

http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0The areal extent, concentration and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have strongly decreased during the recent decades, but cold, snow-rich winters have been common over mid-latitude land areas since 2005. A review is presented on studies addressing the local and remote effects of the sea ice decline on weather and climate. It is evident that the reduction in sea ice cover has increased the heat flux from the ocean to atmosphere in autumn and early winter. This has locally increased air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover and reduced the static stability in the lower troposphere. Several studies based on observations, atmospheric reanalyses, and model experiments suggest that the sea ice decline, together with increased snow cover in Eurasia, favours circulation patterns resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. The suggested large-scale pressure patterns include a high over Eurasia, which favours cold winters in Europe and northeastern Eurasia. A high over the western and a low over the eastern North America have also been suggested, favouring advection of Arctic air masses to North America. Mid-latitude winter weather is, however, affected by several other factors, which generate a large inter-annual variability and often mask the effects of sea ice decline. In addition, the small sample of years with a large sea ice loss makes it difficult to distinguish the effects directly attributable to sea ice conditions. Several studies suggest that, with advancing global warming, cold winters in mid-latitude continents will no longer be common during the second half of the twenty-first century. Recent studies have also suggested causal links between the sea ice decline and summer precipitation in Europe, the Mediterranean, and East Asia.

Wu B., J. Su, and R. DArrigo, 2015: Patterns of Asian winter climate variability and links to Arctic sea ice. J, Climate, 28( 17), 6841- 6858.10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00274.1

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http%3A%2F%2Fcpfd.cnki.com.cn%2FArticle%2FCPFDTOTAL-ZGQX201510004011.htm

http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGQX201510004011.htmThis paper describes two dominant patterns of Asian winter climate variability: the Siberian high(SH) pattern and the Asia-Arctic(AA) pattern. The former depicts atmospheric variability closely associated with the intensity of the Siberian high, and the latter characterizes the teleconnection pattern of atmospheric variability between Asia and the Arctic, which is distinct from the Arctic Oscillation(AO). The AA pattern plays more important roles in regulating winter precipitation and the 850 h Pa meridional wind component over East Asia than the SH pattern, which controls surface air temperature variability over East Asia. In the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas, sea ice loss in both autumn and winter could bring the positive phase of the SH pattern, or cause the negative phase of the AA pattern. The latter corresponds to a weakened East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and enhanced winter precipitation in the mid-latitudes of the Asian continent and East Asia. For the SH pattern, sea ice loss in the prior autumn emerges in the Siberian marginal seas, and winter loss mainly occurs in the Barents Sea,Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait. For the AA pattern, sea ice loss in the prior autumn is observed in the Barents-Kara Seas, the western Laptev Sea, and the Beaufort Sea, and winter loss only occurs in some areas of the Barents Sea, the Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait. Simulation experiments with observed sea ice forcing also support that Arctic sea ice loss may favor frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the AA pattern. The results also imply that the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and winter atmospheric variability over East Asia is unstable, which is a challenge for predicting the EAWM based on Arctic sea ice loss.