Barnston, A. G., M. K. Tippett, M. L. L’Heureux, S. H. Li, and D. G. Dewitt, 2012: Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002−11: Is our capability increasing. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93(5), 631−651, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1. |
Behringer, D. W., and Y. Xue, 2004: Evaluation of the global ocean data assimilation system at NCEP: The Pacific Ocean. Eighth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, AMS 84th Annual Meeting, Washington, Washington State Convention and Trade Center. |
Chen, D. K., and M. A. Cane, 2008: El Niño prediction and predictability. J. Comput. Phys., 227(7), 3625−3640, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.05.014. |
Chen, W., X. Q. Lan, L. Wang, and Y. Ma, 2013: The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(12), 1355−1362, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5654-5. |
Chen, Z. Q., J. P. Liu, M. R. Song, Q. H. Yang, and S. M. Xu, 2017: Impacts of assimilating satellite sea ice concentration and thickness on arctic sea ice prediction in the NCEP climate forecast system. J. Climate, 30(21), 8429−8446, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0093.1. |
Ding, Y. H., Z. Y. Wang, Y. F. Song, and J. Zhang, 2008: Causes of the unprecedented freezing disaster in January 2008 and its possible association with the global warming. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 66, 809−825, https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2008.05.014. (in Chinese with English abstract |
Fang, X. H., and F. Zheng, 2021: Effect of the air–sea coupled system change on the ENSO evolution from boreal spring. Climate Dyn., 57, 109−120, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05697-w. |
Fang, X. H., F. Zheng, Z. Y. Liu, and J. Zhu, 2019: Decadal modulation of ENSO spring persistence barrier by thermal damping processes in the observation. Geophy. Res. Lett., 46(12), 6892−6899, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082921. |
Fang, X. H., and R. H. Xie, 2020: A brief review of ENSO theories and prediction. Science China Earth Sciences, 63(4), 476−491, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-019-9539-0. |
Fetterer, F., and Coauthors, 2017, updated daily. Sea Ice Index, Version 3. Boulder. NSIDC: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Available from |
Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus, 2012: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39(6), L06801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000. |
Gao, H., 2009: China’s snow disaster in 2008, who is the principal player? International Journal of Climatology, 29, 2191−2196, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1859. |
Ha, K.-J., K.-Y. Heo, S.-S. Lee, K.-S. Yun, and J.-G. Jhun, 2012: Variability in the East Asian monsoon: A review. Meteorological Applications, 19(2), 200−215, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1320. |
Huang, B. Y., and Coauthors, 2017: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J. Climate, 30(20), 8179−8205, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1. |
Jin, E. K., and Coauthors, 2008: Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate Dyn., 31(6), 647−664, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3. |
Jin, F. F., 1997: An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54(7), 811−829, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0811:AEORPF>2.0.CO;2. |
Jung, E., J. H. Jeong, S. H. Woo, B. M. Kim, J. H. Yoon, and G. H. Lim, 2020: Impacts of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts. Environ. Res. Lett., 15(9), 094045, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3a3. |
Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S. K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83(11), 1631−1644, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631. |
Kim, H.-J., and S. W. Son, 2020: Eurasian winter temperature change in recent decades and its association with Arctic sea ice loss. Polar Res., 39, 3363, https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v39.3363. |
Kim, J.-W., S.-W. Yeh, and E.-C. Chang, 2014: Combined effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon. Climate Dyn., 42, 957−971, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1730-z. |
Kim, J.-W., S. I. An, S. Y. Jun, H. J. Park, and S. W. Yeh, 2017: ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone. Climate Dyn., 49, 1157−1179, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3371-5. |
Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., F. W. Zwiers, and N. P. Gillett, 2017: Attribution of extreme events in arctic sea ice extent. J. Climate, 30(2), 553−571, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1. |
Kug, J. S., J. H. Jeong, Y. S. Jang, B. M. Kim, C. K. Folland, S. K. Min, and S. W. Son, 2015: Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia. Nature Geoscience, 8(10), 759−762, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2517. |
Larson, S. M., and B. P. Kirtman, 2019: Linking preconditioning to extreme ENSO events and reduced ensemble spread. Climate Dyn., 52(12), 7417−7433, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3791-x. |
Larson, S. M., and K. Pegion, 2020: Do asymmetries in ENSO predictability arise from different recharged states. Climate Dyn., 54(3), 1507−1522, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05069-5. |
L'Heureux, M. L., A. Kumar, G. D. Bell, M. S. Halpert, and R. W. Higgins, 2008: Role of the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern in the 2007 Arctic sea ice decline. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35(20), L20701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035205. |
Li, J. P., 2016: Impacts of annular modes on extreme climate events over the East Asian monsoon region. Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events, J. P. Li, R. Swinbank, R. Grotjahn, and H. Volkert, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 343−353, |
Li, J. P., F. Zheng, C. Sun, J. Feng, and J. Wang, 2019: Pathways of influence of the northern hemisphere mid-high latitudes on East Asian climate: A review. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36, 902−921, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8236-5. |
Liu, J. P., J. A. Curry, H. J. Wang, M. R. Song, and R. M. Horton, 2012: Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(11), 4074−4079, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114910109. |
Maslanik, J., and J. Stroeve, 1999: Near-Real-Time DMSP SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations, Version 1. NSIDC-0081. |
Masuda, S., J. Philip Matthews, Y. Ishikawa, T. Mochizuki, Y. Tanaka, and T. Awaji, 2015: A new approach to El Niño prediction beyond the spring season. Scientific Reports, 5(1), 16782, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16782. |
Matsumura, S., and Y. Kosaka, 2019: Arctic-Eurasian climate linkage induced by tropical ocean variability. Nature Communications, 10, 3441, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11359-7. |
McPhaden, M. J., 2003: Tropical Pacific Ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistence barriers. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(9), 1480, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL016872. |
Mori, M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, J. Inoue, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nature Geoscience, 7, 869−873, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2277. |
Parkinson, C. L., and J. C. Comiso, 2013: On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1356−1361, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50349. |
Planton, Y., J. Vialard, E. Guilyardi, M. Lengaigne, and T. Izumo, 2018: Western Pacific Oceanic heat content: A better predictor of La Niña than of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45(18), 9824−9833, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079341. |
Sung, M.-K., H.-Y. Jang, B.-M. Kim, S.-W. Yeh, Y.-S. Choi, and C. Yoo, 2019: Tropical influence on the North Pacific Oscillation drives winter extremes in North America. Nature Climate Change, 9, 413−418, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0461-5. |
Tang, Q. H., X. J. Zhang, X. H. Yang, and J. A. Francis, 2013: Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss. Environmental Research Letters, 8(1), 014036, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036. |
Wang, L., and W. Chen, 2010: Downward arctic oscillation signal associated with moderate weak stratospheric polar vortex and the cold December 2009. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042659. |
Webster, P. J., 1995: The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 56(1−2), 33−55, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01022520. |
Webster, P. J., and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118(507), 877−926, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711850705. |
Wu, B. Y., and J. Wang, 2002: Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1897, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015373. |
Wu, B. Y., J. Z. Su, and R. H. Zhang, 2011: Effects of autumn-winter arctic sea ice on winter Siberian high. Chinese Science Bulletin, 56(30), 3220−3228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4696-4. |
Yang, C. Y., J. P. Liu, and S. M. Xu, 2020: Seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction using a newly developed fully coupled regional model with the assimilation of satellite sea ice observations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(5), e2019MS001938, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001938. |
Yang, S., K.-M. Lau, and K.-M. Kim, 2002: Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies. J. Climate, 15(3), 306−325, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0306:VOTEAJ>2.0.CO;2. |
Yuan, Y., C. Y. Li, and S. Yang, 2014: Decadal anomalies of winter precipitation over southern China in association with El Nino and La Niña. J. Meteor. Res., 28(1), 91−110, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-0106-6. |
Zheng, F., and J. Zhu, 2010: Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model. Ocean Dynamics, 60(5), 1061−1073, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-010-0307-1. |
Zheng, F., and J. Zhu, 2016: Improved ensemble-mean forecasting of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic error model of an intermediate coupled model. Climate Dyn., 47(12), 3901−3915, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3048-0. |
Zheng, F., and J.-Y. Yu, 2017: Contrasting the skills and biases of deterministic predictions for the two types of El Niño. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 34(12), 1395−1403, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6324-y. |
Zheng, F., J. Zhu, R. H. Zhang, and G. Q. Zhou, 2006: Ensemble hindcasts of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific using an intermediate coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(19), L19604, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026994. |
Zheng, F., J. Zhu, and R. H. Zhang, 2007: Impact of altimetry data on ENSO ensemble initializations and predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34(13), L13611, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030451. |
Zheng, F., J. Zhu, H. Wang, and R. H. Zhang, 2009: Ensemble hindcasts of ENSO events over the past 120 years using a large number of ensembles. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26(2), 359−372, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-0359-7. |
Zheng, F., X.-H. Fang, J. Zhu, J.-Y. Yu, and X.-C. Li, 2016: Modulation of Bjerknes feedback on the decadal variations in ENSO predictability. Geophy. Res. Lett., 43(24), 12 560−12 568, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071636. |
Zheng, F., and Coauthors, 2021: The 2020/21 extremely cold winter in China influenced by the synergistic effect of La Niña and warm Arctic. Adv. Atmos. Sci., |
Zuo, J. Q., H. L. Ren, and W. J. Li, 2015: Contrasting impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on surface air temperature anomalies in southern China between early and middle-to-late winter. J. Climate, 28(10), 4015−4026, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00687.1. |