Arribas, A., and Coauthors, 2011: The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1891−1910, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3615.1.
Bahaga, T. K., A. H. Fink, and P. Knippertz, 2019: Revisiting interannual to decadal teleconnections influencing seasonal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa during the 20th century. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 2765−2785, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5986.
Behera, S. K., J. J. Luo, S. Masson, P. Delecluse, S. Gualdi, A. Navarra, and T. Yamagata, 2005: Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African short rains: A CGCM study. J. Climate, 18, 4514−4530, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3541.1.
Beltrando, G., and P. Camberlin, 1993: Interannual variability of rainfall in the eastern horn of Africa and indicators of atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology, 13, 533−546, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370130505.
Camberlin, P., 1995: June-september rainfall in north-eastern Africa and atmospheric signals over the tropics: A zonal perspective. International Journal of Climatology, 15, 773−783, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370150705.
Camberlin, P., 1997: Rainfall anomalies in the source region of the Nile and Their Connection with the Indian Summer Monsoon. J. Climate, 10, 1380−1392, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1380:RAITSR>2.0.CO;2.
Camberlin, P., and N. Philippon, 2001: The stationarity of lead-lag teleconnections with East Africa rainfall and its incidence on seasonal predictability. Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change, M. B. India and D. L. Bonillo, Eds., Springer, 291−307, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_25.
Camberlin, P., S. Janicot, and I. Poccard, 2001: Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic vs. ENSO. International Journal of Climatology, 21, 973−1005, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.673.
Dawson, A., and T. N. Palmer, 2015: Simulating weather regimes: Impact of model resolution and stochastic parameterization. Climate Dyn., 44, 2177−2193, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2238-x.
Dawson, A., T. N. Palmer, and S. Corti, 2012: Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053284.
Dinku, T., C. Funk, P. Peterson, R. Maidment, T. Tadesse, H. Gadain, and P. Ceccato, 2018: Validation of the CHIRPS satellite rainfall estimates over eastern Africa. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 292−312, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3244.
Diro, G. T., D. I. F. Grimes, and E. Black, 2011a: Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: Part I-observation and modelling. Climate Dyn., 37, 103−119, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8.
Diro, G. T., D. I. F. Grimes, and E. Black, 2011b: Large scale features affecting ethiopian rainfall. African Climate and Climate Change: Physical, Social and Political Perspectives, C. J. R. Williams and D. R. Kniveton, Eds., Springer, 13−50, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3842-5_2.
Diro, G. T., D. I. F. Grimes, and E. Black, 2011c: Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: Part II. Seasonal forecasting. Climate Dyn., 37, 121−131, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x.
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., J. García-Serrano, F. Lienert, A. P. Biescas, and L. R. L. Rodrigues, 2013: Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: Status and prospects. WIREs Climate Change, 4, 245−268, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.217.
Endris, H. S., C. Lennard, B. Hewitson, A. Dosio, G. Nikulin, and G. A. Artan, 2019: Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa. Climate Dyn., 52, 2029−2053, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4239-7.
FEWS NET, 2011: East Africa: Past Year One of the Driest on Record in the Eastern Horn. Famine Early Warning System Network Rep. Available from https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/FEWS%2520NET%2520EA_Historical%2520drought%2520context_061411.pdf.
Funk, C., and Coauthors, 2015a: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations - A new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Scientific Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66.
Funk, C., A. Verdin, J. Michaelsen, P. Peterson, D. Pedreros, and G. Husak, 2015b: A global satellite-assisted precipitation climatology. Earth System Science Data, 7, 275−287, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-275-2015.
Gissila, T., E. Black, D. I. F. Grimes, and J. M. Slingo, 2004: Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 1345−1358, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1078.
Goddard, L., A. G. Barnston, and S. J. Mason, 2003: Evaluation of the IRI’s “net assessment” seasonal climate forecasts: 1997−2001. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1761−1781, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1761.
Graham, R., A. Colman, M. Vellinga, and E. Wallace, 2012: Use of dynamical seasonal forecasts in the consensus outlooks of African Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs). ECMWF Annual Seminar 2012, ECMWF, 3−7.
Gubler, S., and Coauthors, 2020: Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast performance over South America. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 561−584, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0106.1.
He, J. Y., J. Y. Wu, and J. J. Luo, 2020: Introduction to climate forecast system version 1.0 of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 43(1), 128−143, https://doi.org/10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191110007. (in Chinese with English abstract
Hersbach, H., and Coauthors, 2020: The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999−2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803.
Huang, B. Y., and Coauthors, 2017: Extended reconstructed Sea surface temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J. Climate, 30, 8179−8205, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1.
Indeje, M., F. H. M. Semazzi, and L. J. Ogallo, 2000: ENSO signals in East African rainfall seasons. International Journal of Climatology, 20, 19−46, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200001)20:1<19::AID-JOC449>3.0.CO;2-0.
Kew, S. F., and Coauthors, 2021: Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa. Earth System Dynamics, 12, 17−35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021.
Kim, G., J. B. Ahn, V. N. Kryjov, W. S. Lee, D. J. Kim, and A. Kumar, 2021: Assessment of MME methods for seasonal prediction using WMO LC-LRFMME hindcast dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 41, E2462−E2481, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6858.
Korecha, D., and A. G. Barnston, 2007: Predictability of June–September rainfall in ethiopia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 628−650, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3304.1.
Kucharski, F., A. Bracco, J. H. Yoo, A. M. Tompkins, L. Feudale, P. Ruti, and A. Dell’Aquila, 2009: A Gill-Matsuno-type mechanism explains the tropical Atlantic influence on African and Indian monsoon rainfall. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 569−579, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.406.
Luo, J.-J., S. Masson, S. Behera, P. Delecluse, S. Gualdi, A. Navarra, and T. Yamagata, 2003: South Pacific origin of the decadal ENSO-like variation as simulated by a coupled GCM. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2250, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018649.
Luo, J.-J., S. Masson, E. Roeckner, G. Madec, and T. Yamagata, 2005a: Reducing climatology bias in an Ocean–Atmosphere CGCM with improved coupling physics. J. Climate, 18, 2344−2360, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3404.1.
Luo, J.-J., S. Masson, S. Behera, S. Shingu, and T. Yamagata, 2005b: Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts. J. Climate, 18, 4474−4497, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3526.1.
Luo, J.-J., S. Masson, S. Behera, and T. Yamagata, 2007: Experimental forecasts of the Indian Ocean dipole using a coupled OAGCM. J. Climate, 20, 2178−2190, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4132.1.
Luo, J.-J., S. Behera, Y. Masumoto, H. Sakuma, and T. Yamagata, 2008a: Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14S02, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032793.
Luo, J.-J., S. Masson, S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata, 2008b: Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 21, 84−93, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1412.1.
MacLachlan, C., and Coauthors, 2015: Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): A high-resolution seasonal forecast system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1072−1084, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396.
MacLeod, D., 2018: Seasonal predictability of onset and cessation of the east African rains. Weather and Climate Extremes, 21, 27−35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.05.003.
Madec, G., P. Delécluse, M. Imbard, and C. Lévy, 1998: OPA 8.1 Ocean General Circulation Model Reference Manual. Notes du Pôle Modélisation, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace. Available from https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00154217.
Mason, I., 1982: A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 30, 291−303.
Mason, S. J., and S. Chidzambwa, 2008: Verification of African RCOF forecasts. IRI Technical Report, 09-02, 26 pp.
Mason, S. J., and A. P. Weigel, 2009: A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 331−349, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2553.1.
Mason, S. J., M. K. Tippett, L. L. Song, and Á. G. Muñoz, 2019: Climate Predictability Tool Version 16.1.5. Columbia University Academic Commons. Available from https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-qswz-nj26.
Mishra, N., C. Prodhomme, and V. Guemas, 2019: Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe. Climate Dyn., 52, 4207−4225, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z.
Mutai, C. C., and M. N. Ward, 2000: East African rainfall and the tropical circulation/convection on intraseasonal to interannual timescales. J. Climate, 13, 3915−3939, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3915:EARATT>2.0.CO;2.
Mwangi, E., F. Wetterhall, E. Dutra, F. Di Giuseppe, and F. Pappenberger, 2014: Forecasting droughts in East Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 611−620, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-611-2014.
Nicholson, S. E., 2014: The predictability of rainfall over the greater horn of Africa. Part I: Prediction of seasonal rainfall. J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 1011−1027, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-062.1.
Nicholson, S. E., 2017: Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern Africa. Rev. Geophys., 55, 590−635, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000544.
Ogallo, L. J., 1989: The spatial and temporal patterns of the East African seasonal rainfall derived from principal component analysis. International Journal of Climatology, 9, 145−167, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370090204.
Ogallo, L. J., J. E. Janowiak, and M. S. Halpert, 1988: Teleconnection between seasonal rainfall over East Africa and global sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 66, 807−822, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.66.6_807.
Ogutu, G. E. O., W. H. P. Franssen, I. Supit, P. Omondi, and R. W. A. Hutjes, 2017: Skill of ECMWF system-4 ensemble seasonal climate forecasts for East Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 37, 2734−2756, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4876.
Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853−872, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853.
Philip, S., and Coauthors, 2018: Attribution analysis of the Ethiopian drought of 2015. J. Climate, 31, 2465−2486, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0274.1.
Preethi, B., T. P. Sabin, J. A. Adedoyin, and K. Ashok, 2015: Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other tropical indo-pacific climate-drivers on African rainfall. Scientific Reports, 5, 16653, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16653.
Pricope, N. G., G. Husak, D. Lopez-Carr, C. Funk, and J. Michaelsen, 2013: The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones. Global Environmental Change, 23, 1525−1541, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.10.002.
Riddle, E. E., and K. H. Cook, 2008: Abrupt rainfall transitions over the Greater Horn of Africa: Observations and regional model simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D15109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009202.
Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 2003: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model description. MPI-Report 349, 127 pp.
Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian ocean. Nature, 401, 360−363, https://doi.org/10.1038/43854.
Segele, Z. T., and P. J. Lamb, 2005: Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 89, 153−180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x.
Segele, Z. T., P. J. Lamb, and L. M. Leslie, 2009a: Seasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopia/horn of Africa monsoon. Part I: Associations of wavelet-filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 22, 3396−3421, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2859.1.
Segele, Z. T., P. J. Lamb, and L. M. Leslie, 2009b: Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June–September rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1075−1100, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1751.
Seregina, L. S., A. H. Fink, R. van der Linden, N. A. Elagib, and J. G. Pinto, 2019: A new and flexible rainy season definition: Validation for the Greater Horn of Africa and application to rainfall trends. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 989−1012, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5856.
Seregina, L. S., A. H. Fink, R. van der Linden, C. Funk, and J. G. Pinto, 2021: Using seasonal rainfall clusters to explain the interannual variability of the rain belt over the Greater Horn of Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 41, E1717−E1737, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6802.
Sheskin, D. J., 2011: Handbook of Parametric and Nonparametric Statistical Procedures. 5th ed. CRC Press, 1926 pp.
Shukla, S., J. Roberts, A. Hoell, C. C. Funk, F. Robertson, and B. Kirtman, 2019: Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa. Climate Dyn., 53, 7411−7427, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3296-z.
Straus, D. M., S. Corti, and F. Molteni, 2007: Circulation regimes: Chaotic variability versus SST-forced predictability. J. Climate, 20, 2251−2272, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4070.1.
Sun, L. Q., F. H. M. Semazzi, F. Giorgi, and L. Ogallo, 1999a: Application of the NCAR regional climate model to eastern Africa: 1. Simulation of the short rains of 1988. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 6529−6548, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200051.
Sun, L. Q., F. H. M. Semazzi, F. Giorgi, and L. Ogallo, 1999b: Application of the NCAR regional climate model to eastern Africa: 2. Simulation of interannual variability of short rains. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 6549−6562, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200050.
Timm, N. H., and J. E. Carlson, 1976: Part and bipartial canonical correlation analysis. Psychometrika, 41, 159−176, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02291836.
Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771−2778, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2.
Tsidu, G. M., 2012: High-resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: Homogenization, reconstruction, and gridding. J. Climate, 25, 8422−8443, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00027.1.
Viste, E., and A. Sorteberg, 2013a: Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 249−263, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3409.
Viste, E., and A. Sorteberg, 2013b: The effect of moisture transport variability on Ethiopian summer precipitation. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 3106−3123, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3566.
Viste, E., D. Korecha, and A. Sorteberg, 2013: Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 112, 535−551, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0746-3.
Vizy, E. K., and K. H. Cook, 2001: Mechanisms by which Gulf of Guinea and eastern North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies can influence African rainfall. J. Climate, 14, 795−821, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0795:MBWGOG>2.0.CO;2.
Vizy, E. K., and K. H. Cook, 2003: Connections between the summer east African and Indian rainfall regimes. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4510, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003452.
Walker, D. P., C. E. Birch, J. H. Marsham, A. A. Scaife, R. J. Graham, and Z. T. Segele, 2019: Skill of dynamical and GHACOF consensus seasonal forecasts of East African rainfall. Climate Dyn., 53, 4911−4935, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04835-9.
Weigel, A. P., 2012: Ensemble forecasts. Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd ed. T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson, Eds., John Wiley & Sons, 141−166, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119960003.ch8.
Weigel, A. P., and S. J. Mason, 2011: The generalized discrimination score for ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3069−3074, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05069.1.
Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2007: Generalization of the discrete brier and ranked probability skill scores for weighted multimodel ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2778−2785, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3428.1.
Wilks, D. S., 2011: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 3rd ed. Elsevier, 818 pp.
Williams, A. P., and Coauthors, 2012: Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. Climate Dyn., 39, 2307−2328, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1222-y.
Yamagata, T., S. K. Behera, J. J. Luo, S. Masson, M. R. Jury, and S. A. Rao, 2004: Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian ocean. Earth’s Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Volume 147, C. Wang, et al., Eds., American Geophysical Union, 189−211, https://doi.org/10.1029/147GM12.
Yang, Y. H., B. T. Qian, Q. C. Xu, and Y. Yang, 2020: Climate regionalization of asphalt pavement based on the K-means clustering algorithm. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2020, 6917243, https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/6917243.
Young, H. R., and N. P. Klingaman, 2020: Skill of seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts for East Africa. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 1783−1800, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0061.1.
Yule, G. U., 1907: On the theory of correlation for any number of variables, treated by a new system of notation. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 79, 182−193.
Ziervogel, G., M. Bithell, R. Washington, and T. Downing, 2005: Agent-based social simulation: A method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers. Agricultural Systems, 83, 1−26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2004.02.009.