Advanced Search
Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 25 Issue 3

May  2008

Article Contents
Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2008 >  25(3): 387-394

Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL)

  • 1.

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029


doi: 0.1007/s00376-008-0387-8

  • Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation (IAV), and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979--2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (cooling) in the Nino 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude: (1) successful reproduction of the El Nino-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and El Nino forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; (2) more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nino 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; (3) the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.
  • [1] SU Qin, LU Riyu, LI Chaofan, 2014: Large-scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation in Monthly Rainfall over South China from May to August, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 273-282.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3051-x
    [2] Xiaofei WU, Jiangyu MAO, 2019: Decadal Changes in Interannual Dependence of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset on ENSO Modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 1404-1416.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9043-8
    [3] YANG Junli, WANG Bin, GUO Yufu, WAN Hui, JI Zhongzhen, 2007: Comparison Between GAMIL, and CAM2 on Interannual Variability Simulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 82-88.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0082-1
    [4] PENG Jingbei, CHEN Lieting, ZHANG Qingyun, 2014: The Relationship between the El Nio/La Nia Cycle and the Transition Chains of Four Atmospheric Oscillations. Part I: The Four Oscillations, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 468-479.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2275-0
    [5] LI Lijuan, WANG Bin, Yuqing WANG, Hui WAN, 2007: Improvements in Climate Simulation with Modifications to the Tiedtke Convective Parameterization in the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 323-335.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0323-3
    [6] LI Lijuan, Yuqing WANG, WANG Bin, ZHOU Tianjun, 2008: Sensitivity of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL1.1.0) Climate Simulations to Cloud Droplet Effective Radius and Liquid Water Path, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 529-540.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0529-z
    [7] Xinyi XING, Xianghui FANG, Da PANG, Chaopeng JI, 2024: Seasonal Variation of the Sea Surface Temperature Growth Rate of ENSO, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 465-477.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3005-x
    [8] Yuanhai FU, Zhongda LIN, Tao WANG, 2021: Simulated Relationship between Wintertime ENSO and East Asian Summer Rainfall: From CMIP3 to CMIP6, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 221-236.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0147-y
    [9] Yadi LI, Xichen LI, Juan FENG, Yi ZHOU, Wenzhu WANG, Yurong HOU, 2024: Uncertainties of ENSO-related Regional Hadley Circulation Anomalies within Eight Reanalysis Datasets, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 115-140.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3047-0
    [10] Kairan YING, Jing PENG, Li DAN, Xiaogu ZHENG, 2022: Ocean–atmosphere Teleconnections Play a Key Role in the Interannual Variability of Seasonal Gross Primary Production in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 1329-1342.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1226-4
    [11] FENG Juan*, CHEN Wen, 2014: Interference of the East Asian Winter Monsoon in the Impact of ENSO on the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Decaying Phases, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 344-354.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3118-8
    [12] CHEN Wei, LU Riyu, 2014: The Interannual Variation in Monthly Temperature over Northeast China during Summer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 515-524.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3102-3
    [13] KANG Xianbiao, HUANG Ronghui, WANG Zhanggui, ZHANG Rong-Hua, 2014: Sensitivity of ENSO Variability to Pacific Freshwater Flux Adjustment in the Community Earth System Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 1009-1021.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-3232-2
    [14] CHEN Guanghua, HUANG Ronghui, 2008: Influence of Monsoon over the Warm Pool on Interannual Variation on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 319-328.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0319-7
    [15] HE Jinhai, SUN Chenghu, LIU Yunyun, Jun MATSUMOTO, LI Weijing, 2007: Seasonal Transition Features of Large-Scale Moisture Transport in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 1-14.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0001-5
    [16] Xiaoxuan ZHAO, Riyu LU, 2020: Vertical Structure of Interannual Variability in Cross-Equatorial Flows over the Maritime Continent and Indian Ocean in Boreal Summer, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 173-186.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9103-0
    [17] Kaiming HU, Yingxue LIU, Gang HUANG, Zhuoqi HE, Shang-Min LONG, 2020: Contributions to the Interannual Summer Rainfall Variability in the Mountainous Area of Central China and Their Decadal Changes, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 259-268.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-9099-5
    [18] ZHENG Fei, ZHANG Rong-Hua, ZHU Jiang, , 2014: Effects of Interannual Salinity Variability on the Barrier Layer in the Western-Central Equatorial Pacific: A Diagnostic Analysis from Argo, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 532-542.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3061-8
    [19] XUE Feng, ZENG Qingcun, HUANG Ronghui, LI Chongyin, LU Riyu, ZHOU Tianjun, 2015: Recent Advances in Monsoon Studies in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 206-229.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-0015-8
    [20] Ning JIANG, Congwen ZHU, 2021: Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 38, 147-155.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-0090-y
PDF

Get Citation+

shu
Export:  

Share Article

Article Metrics

Article Views: 1395 Times

PDF downloads: 1562 Times

Cited by: Times
  • 加载中

    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 May 2008
    Manuscript revised: 10 May 2008
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL)

    • 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029
    • Manuscript received: 2008-05-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2008-05-10

    Abstract: Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation (IAV), and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979--2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (cooling) in the Nino 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude: (1) successful reproduction of the El Nino-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and El Nino forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; (2) more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nino 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; (3) the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.

      HTML

    Catalog

      Publish with AAS

      Contact us

      Links

      Copyright © 2018-2028 ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 京ICP备14024088号-7

      Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd  support: info@rhhz.net  

      /

      DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
      Return
      Return