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Volume 5 Issue 3

Jul.  1988

Article Contents

A MULTI-STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (SO) AND ITS RELATION TO THE MEAN MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AT 500 hPa IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE


doi: 10.1007/BF02656758

  • In this paper the correlation analysis, factor analysis, fuzzy classification, and principal component analysis (PCA) are performed for the southern oscillation index (SOI) from the Climate Analysis Center (CAC) at the NOAA. It is shown that the 12-month SOI can be classified into two groups: one from January through April and the other from May through December. They differ in persistency and correlation. It is also found that the year of strong or weak SO can be defined by the first principal component of the SOI. The 11 years of weak SO thus defined contain 9 El Nino events.In addition, the relations between the SOI and 500 hPa geopotential height, mean monthly zonal height, mean monthly interzonal height differences, centers of atmospheric activities, characteristics of the atmospheric circulation (the intensity index of the north polar vortex, the area index of the subtropical West Pacific high, mean monthly zonal and meridional circulation indexes in Asia and Eurasia) in the period of 24 months from January through December of the next year have been examined on the basis of the monthly data from 1951 through 1984. The correlation coefficients and Mahalanobis distances are thus presented. Analysis indicates that in the early part of the low SOI year, i.e., in April, the 500 hPa geopotential height north of 75oN is significantly low and then becomes higher in May. It is found that in April the trough of the first harmonic wave is in the Eastern Hemisphere and the contribution of its variance is smaller than in May. Analysis shows that the opposite is true in the high SOI year. Such variation in the height field during the April-May period is an early signal of the SO at higher latitudes.In the end, a statistical prediction model for the SOI is presented, by means of which a low SOI year as well as an El Nino event has been successfully predicted for 1986.
  • [1] Chen Wanlong, Chu Pao-Shin, 1990: On the Couplings between Chebyshev Coefficients as Derived from the Monthly Mean Geopotential Fields at 500 hPa over East Asia and the Southern Oscillation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 7, 347-353.  doi: 10.1007/BF03179766
    [2] Runhua Yang, William H. Klein, 1989: The Synoptic Climatology of Monthly Mean Surface Temperature in Asia in Relation to the 700 hPa Circulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 6, 227-238.  doi: 10.1007/BF02658018
    [3] Shi Neng, Luo Boliang, 1991: Telecorrelation of the 500 hPa Polar Circulation and El Nino / SO with the Temperature Fields in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 8, 289-298.  doi: 10.1007/BF02919611
    [4] Fei ZHENG, Jianping LI, Fred KUCHARSKI, Ruiqiang DING, Ting LIU, 2018: Dominant SST Mode in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics and Its Influence on Atmospheric Circulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 881-895.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-7162-7
    [5] Ji Zhengang, Chao Jiping, 1987: TELECONNECTIONS OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WTTH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, AND WITH THE 500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 4, 343-348.  doi: 10.1007/BF02663604
    [6] WANG Hai, and LIU Qinyu, 2014: Boreal Winter Rainfall Anomaly over the Tropical Indo-Pacific and Its Effect on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 916-925.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3174-0
    [7] SUN Dan, XUE Feng, ZHOU Tianjun, 2013: Impacts of Two Types of El Nio on Atmospheric Circulation in the Southern Hemisphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1732-1742.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2287-9
    [8] Bin Wang, Yihui Ding, 1992: An Overview of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Its Relation to Monsoon and Mid-Latitude Circulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 9, 93-111.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656934
    [9] Fang Zhifang, John M. Wallace, David W. J. Thompson, 2001: The Relationship between the Meridional Profile of Zonal mean Geostrophic Wind and Station Wave at 500 hPa, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 692-700.
    [10] Xu Jianjun, 1994: Statistical Regression Analysis of Response of Northern Mid and Upper Tropospheric Circulation to Winter Eurasian Snow Cover Effects, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 11, 415-420.  doi: 10.1007/BF02658161
    [11] Wang Panxing, Liu Dai, Pan Deyu, 1987: WAVE BOUNDARY BETWEEN MIDDLE-AND-LOW AND MIDDLE-AND-HIGH LATITUDE CIRCULATIONS, AND SEASONAL TRANSFORMATION OF NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE MEAN CIRCULATION, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 4, 55-65.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656661
    [12] Chen Lieting, 1985: THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND ITS ASSOCIATEDSUMMER RAINFALLS IN CHINA-CONCURRENTDISCUSSION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SOURTHERN OSCILLATION AND WALKER CIRCULATION, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2, 542-548.  doi: 10.1007/BF02678752
    [13] Zhao Ping, Chen Longxun, 2001: Interannual Variability of Atmospheric Heat Source/Sink over the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau and its Relation to Circulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 106-116.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0007-3
    [14] NIU Ning, LI Jianping, 2008: Interannual Variability of Autumn Precipitation over South China and its Relation to Atmospheric Circulation and SST Anomalies, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 25, 117-125.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0117-2
    [15] Tang Maocang, 1989: Some Annual Variation Characteristics for the Northern Hemispheric Monthly Mean Precipitation Fields, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 6, 186-201.  doi: 10.1007/BF02658015
    [16] Minghao YANG, Chongyin LI, Xin LI, Xiong CHEN, Lifeng LI, 2022: The Linkage between Midwinter Suppression of the North Pacific Storm Track and Atmospheric Circulation Features in the Northern Hemisphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 502-518.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1145-4
    [17] K. Gambo, Lu Li, Li Weijing, 1987: NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF EURASIAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN IN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 4, 385-394.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656739
    [18] Wang Panxing, Gao Zhi, Li Changqing, 1987: ANALYSIS OF THE TELECONNECTIONAL STRUCTURES OF THE 500-hPa HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE NH IN JANUARY, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 4, 185-197.  doi: 10.1007/BF02677065
    [19] Chen Yingyi, 1993: Predictability of the 500 hPa Height Field, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 10, 497-503.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656975
    [20] Ho Nam CHEUNG, ZHOU Wen, Hing Yim MOK, Man Chi WU, Yaping SHAO, 2013: Revisiting the Climatology of Atmospheric Blocking in the Northern Hemisphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 397-410.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2006-y

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 July 1988
Manuscript revised: 10 July 1988
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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A MULTI-STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (SO) AND ITS RELATION TO THE MEAN MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AT 500 hPa IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

  • 1. Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing

Abstract: In this paper the correlation analysis, factor analysis, fuzzy classification, and principal component analysis (PCA) are performed for the southern oscillation index (SOI) from the Climate Analysis Center (CAC) at the NOAA. It is shown that the 12-month SOI can be classified into two groups: one from January through April and the other from May through December. They differ in persistency and correlation. It is also found that the year of strong or weak SO can be defined by the first principal component of the SOI. The 11 years of weak SO thus defined contain 9 El Nino events.In addition, the relations between the SOI and 500 hPa geopotential height, mean monthly zonal height, mean monthly interzonal height differences, centers of atmospheric activities, characteristics of the atmospheric circulation (the intensity index of the north polar vortex, the area index of the subtropical West Pacific high, mean monthly zonal and meridional circulation indexes in Asia and Eurasia) in the period of 24 months from January through December of the next year have been examined on the basis of the monthly data from 1951 through 1984. The correlation coefficients and Mahalanobis distances are thus presented. Analysis indicates that in the early part of the low SOI year, i.e., in April, the 500 hPa geopotential height north of 75oN is significantly low and then becomes higher in May. It is found that in April the trough of the first harmonic wave is in the Eastern Hemisphere and the contribution of its variance is smaller than in May. Analysis shows that the opposite is true in the high SOI year. Such variation in the height field during the April-May period is an early signal of the SO at higher latitudes.In the end, a statistical prediction model for the SOI is presented, by means of which a low SOI year as well as an El Nino event has been successfully predicted for 1986.

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