Numerical Study for Potential Predictability of Short-Term Anomalous Climate Change Caused by El Nino

Ni Yunqi; Lin Wuyin; Wang Wanqiu; Yuan Chongguang; Zhang Qin

doi:10.1007/BF02656949

Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 10 Issue 1

Jan. 1993

Article Contents

Article > ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES > 1993 > 10(1): 1-10

Numerical Study for Potential Predictability of Short-Term Anomalous Climate Change Caused by El Nino

1.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008,Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080,Department of Meteorology, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044

doi: 10.1007/BF02656949

Abstract
References
Related papers
PDF

Abstract:
In this paper, the two-layer IAP model with sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific is used to investigate potential predictability of global short-term anomalous climate change caused by El Nino via the “switching” experiments. The experimental results show that short-term anomalous climate change in the tropics is mainly caused by instantaneous response of tropical atmosphere to SSTA in the tropics. The effective period of this kind of anomalous climate is shorter and about monthly scale. In the high latitudes, the anomalous cli-mate is mainly caused by the lag response of atmosphere to SSTA in the tropics. The strongest influence appears in the month after a half year when the SSTA in the tropics disappears. Therefore, potential predictability of short-term anomalous climate change may be reached to one year; anomalous climate change in the middle-latitudes is not only affected by instantaneous response to SSTA in the tropics, but also by lag response to that. Therefore, short-term climate change prediction with monthly time scale can be not only done by using SSTA in the tropics, but also predic-tion of short-term climate after a half year can be done and its effective predictable period may be reached to one year.
References

[1]	Ni Yunqi, Lin Yuanbi, 1990: Numerical Study for Characteristic Change of Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and Its Influence Mechanism during the El Nino Period, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 7, 320-330. doi: 10.1007/BF03179764
[2]	Li Maicun, Yao Dirong, 1985: SOME RESULTS OF APPLICATIONS OF STATISTICAL METHOD TO CLIMATE CHANGES AND SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION IN CHINA, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2, 271-281. doi: 10.1007/BF02677243
[3]	Zhang Fuqing, Lin Zhenshan, Jiang Quanrong, 1994: The Fractal Dimension Distribution of the Short-Term Climate System in China and It’s Connection with the Monsoon Climate, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 11, 459-462. doi: 10.1007/BF02658166
[4]	Jin Long, Ju Weimin, Miao Qilong, 2000: Study on Ann-Based Multi-Step Prediction Model of Short-Term Climatic Variation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 17, 157-164. doi: 10.1007/s00376-000-0051-4
[5]	Ji Jinjun, 1986: A SIMPLIFIED MODEL STUDY ON THE SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC EFFECT OF SNOWFALL ANOMALY IN MID-HIGH LATITUDES, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 3, 443-453. doi: 10.1007/BF02657934
[6]	Wang Huijun, Zhou Guangqing, Lin Zhaohui, Zhao Yan, Guo Yufu, Ma Zhuguo, 2001: Recent Researches on the Short-Term Climate Prediction at IAP－A Brief Review, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 929-936.
[7]	CAO Jian, Bin WANG, Baoqiang XIANG, Juan LI, WU Tianjie, Xiouhua FU, WU Liguang, MIN Jinzhong, 2015: Major Modes of Short-Term Climate Variability in the Newly Developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 585-600. doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4200-6
[8]	JIN Long, JIN Jian, YAO Cai, 2005: A Short-Term Climate Prediction Model Based on a Modular Fuzzy Neural Network, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 22, 428-435. doi: 10.1007/BF02918756
[9]	Xiuping YAO, Qin ZHANG, Xiao ZHANG, 2020: Potential Vorticity Diagnostic Analysis on the Impact of the Easterlies Vortex on the Short-term Movement of the Subtropical Anticyclone over the Western Pacific in the Mei-yu Period, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 1019-1031. doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9271-y
[10]	Li Chongyin, 1990: Interaction between Anomalous Winter Monsoon in East Asia and El Nino Events, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 7, 36-46. doi: 10.1007/BF02919166
[11]	Zhang Renhe, Akimasa Sumi, Masahide Kimoto, 1999: A Diagnostic Study of the Impact of El Nino on the Precipitation in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 229-241. doi: 10.1007/BF02973084
[12]	Fei WANG, Hua ZHANG, Qi CHEN, Min ZHAO, Ting YOU, 2020: Analysis of Short-term Cloud Feedback in East Asia Using Cloud Radiative Kernels, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 37, 1007-1018. doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9281-9
[13]	HAN Leqiong, LI Shuanglin, LIU Na, 2014: An Approach for Improving Short-Term Prediction of Summer Rainfall over North China by Decomposing Interannual and Decadal Variability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 435-448. doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3016-0
[14]	Ni Yunqi, Zhang Qin, Li Yuedong, 1991: A Numerical Study of the Mechanism for the Effect of Northern Winter Arctic Ice Cover on the Global Short-Range Climate Evolution, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 8, 489-498. doi: 10.1007/BF02919271
[15]	S. S. Dugam, S. B. Kakade, 1995: Short-term Climatic Fluctuations in North Atlantic Oscillation and Frequency of Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean and Northwest Pacific, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 12, 371-376. doi: 10.1007/BF02656986
[16]	DUAN Wansuo, ZHANG Rui, 2010: Is Model Parameter Error Related to a Significant Spring Predictability Barrier for El Nino events? Results from a Theoretical Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 27, 1003-1013. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9166-4
[17]	Wang Huijun, 1999: A Preliminary Study on the Polar Climate Predictability, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 16, 361-366. doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0015-2
[18]	Mu Mu, Duan Wansuo, Wang Jiacheng, 2002: The Predictability Problems in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 19, 191-204. doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0016-x
[19]	Yang Fanglin, Yuan Chongguang, 1993: Numerical Simulation of Regional Short-Range Climate Anomalies, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 10, 335-344. doi: 10.1007/BF02658139
[20]	Binghao JIA, Xin LUO, Longhuan WANG, Xin LAI, 2023: Changes in Water Use Efficiency Caused by Climate Change, CO₂ Fertilization, and Land Use Changes on the Tibetan Plateau, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 144-154. doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-2172-5

PDF

Get Citation+

Export:

Article Metrics

Article Views: 1260 Times

PDF downloads: 1200 Times

Cited by: Times

Proportional views

Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 January 1993

Manuscript revised: 10 January 1993

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

Numerical Study for Potential Predictability of Short-Term Anomalous Climate Change Caused by El Nino

1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008,Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080,Department of Meteorology, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044

Manuscript received: 1993-01-10
Manuscript revised: 1993-01-10

Abstract: In this paper, the two-layer IAP model with sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific is used to investigate potential predictability of global short-term anomalous climate change caused by El Nino via the “switching” experiments. The experimental results show that short-term anomalous climate change in the tropics is mainly caused by instantaneous response of tropical atmosphere to SSTA in the tropics. The effective period of this kind of anomalous climate is shorter and about monthly scale. In the high latitudes, the anomalous cli-mate is mainly caused by the lag response of atmosphere to SSTA in the tropics. The strongest influence appears in the month after a half year when the SSTA in the tropics disappears. Therefore, potential predictability of short-term anomalous climate change may be reached to one year; anomalous climate change in the middle-latitudes is not only affected by instantaneous response to SSTA in the tropics, but also by lag response to that. Therefore, short-term climate change prediction with monthly time scale can be not only done by using SSTA in the tropics, but also predic-tion of short-term climate after a half year can be done and its effective predictable period may be reached to one year.