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Predictability of the 500 hPa Height Field


doi: 10.1007/BF02656975

  • The dimensions of attractors and predictability are estimated from phase space trajectories of observed 500 hPa height over the Northern Hemisphere. As a first estimate the dimensions of attractors are about 11.5 and the doubling time of the initial error is 6 to 7 days for original data. But the former is shorter and the latter is longer for low fre-quency data set.To verify if the predictability estimated by this method and by general circulation model is identical, the doubling time of the initial error of a model data set by both methods is estimated. It is shown that the predictability obtained from phase space trajectories is overestimated to sufficient small initial error. But it is underestimated to the time be-ing equal to the climatological RMS error.
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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 October 1993
Manuscript revised: 10 October 1993
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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Predictability of the 500 hPa Height Field

  • 1. National Research Center for Marine Environment Forecasts, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Abstract: The dimensions of attractors and predictability are estimated from phase space trajectories of observed 500 hPa height over the Northern Hemisphere. As a first estimate the dimensions of attractors are about 11.5 and the doubling time of the initial error is 6 to 7 days for original data. But the former is shorter and the latter is longer for low fre-quency data set.To verify if the predictability estimated by this method and by general circulation model is identical, the doubling time of the initial error of a model data set by both methods is estimated. It is shown that the predictability obtained from phase space trajectories is overestimated to sufficient small initial error. But it is underestimated to the time be-ing equal to the climatological RMS error.

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