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A Nonlinear Time-lag Differential Equation Model for Predicting Monthly Precipitation


doi: 10.1007/BF02656980

  • This paper investigates the nonlinear prediction of monthly rainfall time series which consists of phase space con-tinuation of one-dimensional sequence, followed by least-square determination of the coefficients for the terms of the time-lag differential equation model and then fitting of the prognostic expression is made to 1951-1980 monthly rainfall datasets from Changsha station Results show that the model is likely to describe the nonlinearity of the an-nual cycle of precipitation on a monthly basis and to provide a basis for flood prevention and drought combating for the wet season.
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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 July 1995
Manuscript revised: 10 July 1995
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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A Nonlinear Time-lag Differential Equation Model for Predicting Monthly Precipitation

  • 1. Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044,Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044,Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044

Abstract: This paper investigates the nonlinear prediction of monthly rainfall time series which consists of phase space con-tinuation of one-dimensional sequence, followed by least-square determination of the coefficients for the terms of the time-lag differential equation model and then fitting of the prognostic expression is made to 1951-1980 monthly rainfall datasets from Changsha station Results show that the model is likely to describe the nonlinearity of the an-nual cycle of precipitation on a monthly basis and to provide a basis for flood prevention and drought combating for the wet season.

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