Tropical Stratospheric Circulation and Monsoon Rainfall

A.B. Sikder; S.K. Patwardhan; H.N. Bhalme

doi:10.1007/BF02658143

Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 10 Issue 3

Jul. 1993

Article Contents

Article > ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES > 1993 > 10(3): 379-385

Tropical Stratospheric Circulation and Monsoon Rainfall

1.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India

doi: 10.1007/BF02658143

Abstract
References
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Abstract:
Interannual variability of both SW monsoon (June-September) and NE monsoon (October-December) rainfall over subdivisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have been examined in relation to monthly zonal wind anomaly for 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa at Balboa (9oN, 80oW) for the 29 year period (1958-1986). Correlations of zonal wind anomalies to SW monsoon rainfall (r = 0.57, significant at 1% level) is highest with the longer lead time (August of the previous year) at 10 hPa level suggesting some predictive value for Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The probabilities estimated from the contingency table reveal non-occurrence of flood during east-erly wind anomalies and near non-occurrence of drought during westerly anomalies for August of the previous year at 10 hPa which provides information for forecasting of performance of SW monsoon over Coastal Andhra Pradesh. However. NE monsoon has a weak relationship with zonal wind anomalies of 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu.Tracks of the SW monsoon storms add depressions in association with the stratospheric wind were also exam?ined to couple with the fluctuations in SW monsoon rainfall. It is noted that easterly / westerly wind at 10 hPa, in some manner, suppresses / enhances monsoon storms and depressions activity affecting their tracks.
- QBO,
- Stratospheric wind and monsoon rainfall,
- Interannual variability of SW monsoon,
- Probability forecasts of droughts / floods
References

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 July 1993

Manuscript revised: 10 July 1993

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

Tropical Stratospheric Circulation and Monsoon Rainfall

1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India

Manuscript received: 1993-07-10
Manuscript revised: 1993-07-10

Abstract: Interannual variability of both SW monsoon (June-September) and NE monsoon (October-December) rainfall over subdivisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have been examined in relation to monthly zonal wind anomaly for 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa at Balboa (9oN, 80oW) for the 29 year period (1958-1986). Correlations of zonal wind anomalies to SW monsoon rainfall (r = 0.57, significant at 1% level) is highest with the longer lead time (August of the previous year) at 10 hPa level suggesting some predictive value for Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The probabilities estimated from the contingency table reveal non-occurrence of flood during east-erly wind anomalies and near non-occurrence of drought during westerly anomalies for August of the previous year at 10 hPa which provides information for forecasting of performance of SW monsoon over Coastal Andhra Pradesh. However. NE monsoon has a weak relationship with zonal wind anomalies of 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu.Tracks of the SW monsoon storms add depressions in association with the stratospheric wind were also exam?ined to couple with the fluctuations in SW monsoon rainfall. It is noted that easterly / westerly wind at 10 hPa, in some manner, suppresses / enhances monsoon storms and depressions activity affecting their tracks.

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