THE OPERATIONAL SEASONAL FORECASTING OF THE SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA

Zhang Jijia; Chen Xingfang

doi:10.1007/BF02663605

Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 4 Issue 3

Jul. 1987

Article Contents

Article > ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES > 1987 > 4(3): 349-362

THE OPERATIONAL SEASONAL FORECASTING OF THE SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA

1.
State Meteorological Administration, Beijing,State Meteorological Administration, Beijing

doi: 10.1007/BF02663605

Abstract
References
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Abstract:
The paper presents a review of the success and failure of the practical results from summer drought and flood forecasts and seasonal precipitation forecasts in the period from 1976 to 1985. An analysis is made on the anomaly of the general circulation winch gives rise to summer precipitation and drought-flood occurrences in the country. It is proposed that the subtropical high over the West Pacific, the South Asia high and middle-latitude westerlies are the major synoptical regimes producing summer weather in China. The analysis focuses on the features of low-frequency oscillation and abnormality of the West Pacific sub-tropical high in the monthly 500 hPa mean charts, and on their interactions with the sea temperature of the North Pacific and the Equatorial Pacific. The result shows that there exist quasi-cycles of 3－4 years, 11 years and 19 years or so in the subtropical high with the feature of strong persistence and seasonal changes. There is a rather good correlation between the behaviour of the subtropical high and changes in the cold current area in the East Pacific, and especially during the El Nino period, there is an ob-vious coupling with abnormal changes of the intensity of the subtropical high. Analysis is also made on the effect of the thermal condition of the Tibetan Plateau, the Northern Hemisphere westerly circulation and the astronomical factors on the West Pacific subtropical high, the South Asia high and precipitation in the rainy season in China.
References

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[2]	Linye SONG, Wansuo DUAN, Yun LI, Jiangyu MAO, 2016: A Timescale Decomposed Threshold Regression Downscaling Approach to Forecasting South China Early Summer Rainfall, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 33, 1071-7084. doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-5251-7
[3]	Xu Youping, Xia Daqing, Qian Yueying, 1998: The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments Part II: The Operational Forecasting Experiments, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 15, 321-336. doi: 10.1007/s00376-998-0004-x
[4]	LIU Xiangwen, WU Tongwen, YANG Song, JIE Weihua, NIE Suping, LI Qiaoping, CHENG Yanjie, LIANG Xiaoyun, 2015: Performance of the Seasonal Forecasting of the Asian Summer Monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 1156-1172. doi: 10.1007/s00376-015-4194-8
[5]	Philip E. BETT, Adam A. SCAIFE, Chaofan LI, Chris HEWITT, Nicola GOLDING, Peiqun ZHANG, Nick DUNSTONE, Doug M. SMITH, Hazel E. THORNTON, Riyu LU, Hong-Li REN, 2018: Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 35, 918-926. doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-7210-y
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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 July 1987

Manuscript revised: 10 July 1987

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

THE OPERATIONAL SEASONAL FORECASTING OF THE SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA

1. State Meteorological Administration, Beijing,State Meteorological Administration, Beijing

Manuscript received: 1987-07-10
Manuscript revised: 1987-07-10

Abstract: The paper presents a review of the success and failure of the practical results from summer drought and flood forecasts and seasonal precipitation forecasts in the period from 1976 to 1985. An analysis is made on the anomaly of the general circulation winch gives rise to summer precipitation and drought-flood occurrences in the country. It is proposed that the subtropical high over the West Pacific, the South Asia high and middle-latitude westerlies are the major synoptical regimes producing summer weather in China. The analysis focuses on the features of low-frequency oscillation and abnormality of the West Pacific sub-tropical high in the monthly 500 hPa mean charts, and on their interactions with the sea temperature of the North Pacific and the Equatorial Pacific. The result shows that there exist quasi-cycles of 3－4 years, 11 years and 19 years or so in the subtropical high with the feature of strong persistence and seasonal changes. There is a rather good correlation between the behaviour of the subtropical high and changes in the cold current area in the East Pacific, and especially during the El Nino period, there is an ob-vious coupling with abnormal changes of the intensity of the subtropical high. Analysis is also made on the effect of the thermal condition of the Tibetan Plateau, the Northern Hemisphere westerly circulation and the astronomical factors on the West Pacific subtropical high, the South Asia high and precipitation in the rainy season in China.