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Volume 3 Issue 3

Jul.  1986

Article Contents

A GLOBAL ANNUALLY-AVERAGED CLIMATE MODEL WITH CLOUD, WATER VAPOR AND CO2 FEEDBACKS


doi: 10.1007/BF02678652

  • In consideration of the radiation transfer, latent and sensible heat exchange between oceans and at-mosphere, a three-dimensional autonomous nonlinear ordinary differential equation is established by statis-tical parameterization method. The variables of the model are the mean ocean surface temperature Ts, mean atmospheric temperature Ta and atmospheric relative humidity f, and the feedbacks of clouds, water vapor and CO2 are involved. The steady state corresponding to the present-day climate can be obtained from this model. The analysis of parameter sensibility in the steady state indicates that clouds have consid-erable negative feedback effects and water vapor may affect the sign of CO2 feedback. The stability analysis of the steady state to small disturbance indicates that with increase of the positive feedback effect of clouds, the steady state goes through such a structural variance series as a stable node→a stable focal point→an unstable focal point→an unstable node, and when the steady state becomes unstable it undergoes a subcritical Hopf bifurcation. When the steady state is at a focal point, the periodic oscillation solutions of damping or amplifying can be obtained with the period being about two years.
  • [1] XU Yongfu, LI Yangchun, 2009: Estimates of Anthropogenic CO2 Uptake in a Global Ocean Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 265-274.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0265-z
    [2] Binghao JIA, Xin LUO, Longhuan WANG, Xin LAI, 2023: Changes in Water Use Efficiency Caused by Climate Change, CO2 Fertilization, and Land Use Changes on the Tibetan Plateau, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 144-154.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-2172-5
    [3] Guo Yufu, Yu Yongqiang, Liu Xiying, Zhang Xuehong, 2001: Simulation of Climate Change Induced by CO2 Increasing for East Asia with IAP/LASG GOALS Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 18, 53-66.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-001-0004-6
    [4] ZHANG Hua, ZHANG Ruoyu, and SHI Guangyu, 2013: An updated estimation of radiative forcing due to CO2 and its effect on global surface temperature change, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 1017-1024.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2204-7
    [5] Bao Ning, Zhang Xuehong, 1991: Effect of Ocean Thermal Diffusivity on Global Warming Induced by Increasing Atmospheric CO2, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 8, 421-430.  doi: 10.1007/BF02919265
    [6] LI Hongmei, FENG Lei, ZHOU Tianjun, 2011: Multi-Model Projection of July--August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 448-463.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0052-x
    [7] JIA Binghao, XIE Zhenghui, ZENG Yujin, WANG Linying, WANG Yuanyuan, XIE Jinbo, XIE Zhipeng, 2015: Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of CO2 Fluxes and Their Climate Controlling Factors for a Subtropical Forest in Ningxiang, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 553-564.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4069-4
    [8] Jiawen ZHU, Juanxiong HE, Duoying JI, Yangchun LI, He ZHANG, Minghua ZHANG, Xiaodong ZENG, Kece FEI, Jiangbo JIN, 2024: CAS-ESM2.0 Successfully Reproduces Historical Atmospheric CO2 in a Coupled Carbon−Climate Simulation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 572-580.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3172-9
    [9] MAO Jiafu, WANG Bin, DAI Yongjiu, 2009: Sensitivity of the Carbon Storage of Potential Vegetation to Historical Climate Variability and CO2 in Continental China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26, 87-100.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0087-z
    [10] KOU Xingxia, ZHANG Meigen, PENG Zhen, WANG Yinghong, 2015: Assessment of the Biospheric Contribution to Surface Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations over East Asia with a Regional Chemical Transport Model, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 287-300.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4059-6
    [11] Xixun ZHOU, Bing XIE, Hua ZHANG, Jingyi HE, Qi CHEN, 2022: Decomposition of Fast and Slow Cloud Responses to Quadrupled CO2 Forcing in BCC–AGCM2.0 over East Asia, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 2188-2202.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1441-7
    [12] Lingyun ZHANG, Yanfang SONG, Jialin SHI, Qun SHEN, Deng HU, Qiang GAO, Wei CHEN, Kien-Woh KOW, Chengheng PANG, Nannan SUN, Wei WEI, 2022: Frontiers of CO2 Capture and Utilization (CCU) towards Carbon Neutrality, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 1252-1270.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1467-x
    [13] Xu Yongfu, 1992: The Buffer Capability of the Ocean to Increasing Atmospheric CO2, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 9, 501-510.  doi: 10.1007/BF02677083
    [14] L.S. Hingane, 1989: Effect of Increasing CO2 on the Stratospheric Level of CO and O3, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 6, 390-392.  doi: 10.1007/BF02661544
    [15] YANG Lu, WANG Zhenhui, CHU Yanli, ZHAO Hang, TANG Min, 2014: Water Vapor Motion Signal Extraction from FY-2E Longwave Infrared Window Images for Cloud-free Regions: The Temporal Difference Technique, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 1386-1394.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-3165-9
    [16] Samuel Takele KENEA, Young-Suk OH, Jae-Sang RHEE, Tae-Young GOO, Young-Hwa BYUN, Shanlan LI, Lev D. LABZOVSKII, Haeyoung LEE, Robert F. BANKS, 2019: Evaluation of Simulated CO2 Concentrations from the CarbonTracker-Asia Model Using In-situ Observations over East Asia for 2009-2013, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 36, 603-613.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-8150-x
    [17] Dongxu YANG, Janne HAKKARAINEN, Yi LIU, Iolanda IALONGO, Zhaonan CAI, Johanna TAMMINEN, 2023: Detection of Anthropogenic CO2 Emission Signatures with TanSat CO2 and with Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) NO2 Measurements: First Results, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 40, 1-5.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-2237-5
    [18] LI Hongmei, FENG Lei, ZHOU Tianjun, 2011: Multi-model Projection of July--August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO$_{2}$ Doubling. Part I: Precipitation, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28, 433-447.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0013-4
    [19] LI Yangchun, XU Yongfu, 2012: Uptake and Storage of Anthropogenic CO2 in the Pacific Ocean Estimated Using Two Modeling Approaches, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 795-809.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1170-4
    [20] Soo PARK, Seung Jin, Chang Seok, 2013: Effects of an Urban Park and Residential Area on the Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Flux in Seoul, Korea, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 30, 503-514.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2079-7

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 July 1986
Manuscript revised: 10 July 1986
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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A GLOBAL ANNUALLY-AVERAGED CLIMATE MODEL WITH CLOUD, WATER VAPOR AND CO2 FEEDBACKS

  • 1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academia Sinica, Beijing,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academia Sinica, Beijing,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academia Sinica, Beijing

Abstract: In consideration of the radiation transfer, latent and sensible heat exchange between oceans and at-mosphere, a three-dimensional autonomous nonlinear ordinary differential equation is established by statis-tical parameterization method. The variables of the model are the mean ocean surface temperature Ts, mean atmospheric temperature Ta and atmospheric relative humidity f, and the feedbacks of clouds, water vapor and CO2 are involved. The steady state corresponding to the present-day climate can be obtained from this model. The analysis of parameter sensibility in the steady state indicates that clouds have consid-erable negative feedback effects and water vapor may affect the sign of CO2 feedback. The stability analysis of the steady state to small disturbance indicates that with increase of the positive feedback effect of clouds, the steady state goes through such a structural variance series as a stable node→a stable focal point→an unstable focal point→an unstable node, and when the steady state becomes unstable it undergoes a subcritical Hopf bifurcation. When the steady state is at a focal point, the periodic oscillation solutions of damping or amplifying can be obtained with the period being about two years.

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