MODELS FOR MEDIUM- AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST-ING OF THE AMOUNT OF MIGRATION OF FIRST-GENERATION MOTHS INTO THE OUTBREAKING AREA OF THE SECOND- GENERATION ARMYWORM

Zhao Shengju; Zhou Chaodong

doi:10.1007/BF02678658

Impact Factor: 5.8

Volume 3 Issue 3

Jul. 1986

Article Contents

Article > ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES > 1986 > 3(3): 379-384

MODELS FOR MEDIUM- AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST-ING OF THE AMOUNT OF MIGRATION OF FIRST-GENERATION MOTHS INTO THE OUTBREAKING AREA OF THE SECOND- GENERATION ARMYWORM

1.
Institute of Agrometeorology, Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing,State Meteorological Administration, Beijing

doi: 10.1007/BF02678658

Abstract
References
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Abstract:
With the aim to establish an “optimum” regression, as attempt is made through stepwise regression analysis to construct medium- and long-range models for forecasting the amount of migrants of the first-generation adults of armyworm into the outbreaking area of the second-generation armyworm in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia by applying precedent data of meteorological elements, general circulation features and insect pest situation. The formulas established are found to be rather satisfactory, which add a new approach to the simulation prediction of the armyworm.
References

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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 July 1986

Manuscript revised: 10 July 1986

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

MODELS FOR MEDIUM- AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST-ING OF THE AMOUNT OF MIGRATION OF FIRST-GENERATION MOTHS INTO THE OUTBREAKING AREA OF THE SECOND- GENERATION ARMYWORM

1. Institute of Agrometeorology, Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing,State Meteorological Administration, Beijing

Manuscript received: 1986-07-10
Manuscript revised: 1986-07-10

Abstract: With the aim to establish an “optimum” regression, as attempt is made through stepwise regression analysis to construct medium- and long-range models for forecasting the amount of migrants of the first-generation adults of armyworm into the outbreaking area of the second-generation armyworm in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia by applying precedent data of meteorological elements, general circulation features and insect pest situation. The formulas established are found to be rather satisfactory, which add a new approach to the simulation prediction of the armyworm.