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The Decade-Scale Climatic Forecasting in China


doi: 10.1007/BF02915503

  • Described is a new technique of decade-scale climatic forecasting, presented by a combination ofwavelet analysis and stochastic dynamics. The technique is also applied to diagnosing and forecasting theduration time of dry and wet climates in the decadal hierarchy of different areas in China. Results showthat in the decadal hierarchy, the north, southwest, and southeast of China are areas where various kindsof frequent climate disasters appear; droughts easily occur in the north and northwest, while floods oftenoccur in South China. Because this modeling technique is based on time series data, it can also be appliedin the modeling and forecasting of such time series as hydrology, earthquakes and ecology.
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Manuscript History

Manuscript received: 10 July 2003
Manuscript revised: 10 July 2003
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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The Decade-Scale Climatic Forecasting in China

  • 1. The College of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097,Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093

Abstract: Described is a new technique of decade-scale climatic forecasting, presented by a combination ofwavelet analysis and stochastic dynamics. The technique is also applied to diagnosing and forecasting theduration time of dry and wet climates in the decadal hierarchy of different areas in China. Results showthat in the decadal hierarchy, the north, southwest, and southeast of China are areas where various kindsof frequent climate disasters appear; droughts easily occur in the north and northwest, while floods oftenoccur in South China. Because this modeling technique is based on time series data, it can also be appliedin the modeling and forecasting of such time series as hydrology, earthquakes and ecology.

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