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Volume 22 Issue 6

Nov.  2005

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Article >  ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  > 2005 >  22(6): 789-797

Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change-Progress and Challenges

  • 1.

    Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1047 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norvay;Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavagen 16, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden,Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavagen 16, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden


doi: 10.1007/BF02918679

  • The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases,(2) use of downscaling techniques (both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods)for "downscaling" the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and (3) use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales.Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.
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    [2] Yi Lan, 1995: Characteristics of the Mean Water Vapor Transport over Monsoon Asia, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 12, 195-206.  doi: 10.1007/BF02656832
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    [4] ZHANG Lixia* and ZHOU Tianjun, , 2014: An Assessment of Improvements in Global Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in FGOALS-s2, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 165-178.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2164-6
    [5] HE Jinhai, JU Jianhua, WEN Zhiping, L\"U Junmei, JIN Qihua, 2007: A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Asian Monsoon in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 24, 972-992.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0972-2
    [6] REN Guoyu, DING Yihui, ZHAO Zongci, ZHENG Jingyun, WU Tongwen, TANG Guoli, XU Ying, 2012: Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 29, 958-977.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1200-2
    [7] Michael BRODY, Maksim KULIKOV, Sagynbek ORUNBAEV, Peter J. VAN OEVELEN, 2024: The Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Project in Central Asia: The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 41, 777-783.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-3384-2
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    [9] Liguang WU, Haikun ZHAO, Chao WANG, Jian CAO, Jia LIANG, 2022: Understanding of the Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Intensity: A Review, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 205-221.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1026-x
    [10] Dazhi YANG, Wenting WANG, Xiang'ao XIA, 2022: A Concise Overview on Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 39, 1239-1251.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1372-8
    [11] M.Lal, 1994: Water Resources of the South Asian Region in a Warmer Atmosphere, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 11, 239-246.  doi: 10.1007/BF02666550
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    [13] HAN Zuoqiang, YAN Zhongwei*, LI Zhen, LIU Weidong, and WANG Yingchun, 2014: Impact of Urbanization on Low-Temperature Precipitation in Beijing during 19602008, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 31, 48-56.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2211-3
    [14] LIAO Hong, CHANG Wenyuan, YANG Yang, 2015: Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants over China: A Review, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 32, 115-139.  doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-0013-x
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 10 November 2005
    Manuscript revised: 10 November 2005
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

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    Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change-Progress and Challenges

    • 1. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1047 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norvay;Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavagen 16, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden,Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavagen 16, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden
    • Manuscript received: 2005-11-10
    • Manuscript revised: 2005-11-10

    Abstract: The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases,(2) use of downscaling techniques (both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods)for "downscaling" the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and (3) use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales.Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.

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